Dispersion of very melted broken up sea ice makes the 15% rule obsolete

     Russian sector of the North Pole had clearly a net expansion of extent,  but not because it was freezing,  much rather from the poor condition of extremely thinned breaking up sea ice.   All while there was melting.  So it is very difficult to judge either how fast the melting is unless dispersion is taken into account.    The other way to judge is by Goodbye Waves:

    Dispersing more rapidly Goodbye Waves are a sign of melting amongst winds and currents.   Judging melting correctly would be to factor in,  not exclude by an arbitrary rule,  every parcel of open water and sea ice as accurately as possible.   WD Sep 9,2016

Atlantic Front Franz Josef Lands melt/retreat Northwards, dispersion of broken apart sea ice will eventually thin further and give dramatic extent drop

  We see thinning of sea ice loose packs almost everywhere in the Arctic Ocean,  here North of Franz Josef Land Russia, is a retreat of sea ice Northwards.  This flow has no solid pack to recoil on and therefore is breaking apart.   Note Goodbye Waves to the South of the Front indicate great melting.  The new open water areas, numerous as they may be,  are highly likely not recorded by extent numbers 15% per grid regulation.

   Superimposed JAXA map September 5 (white black) September 7 (in colour).  The colour gains,  on the Leeward side (winds counterclockwise) of sea ice shores outnumber the black and white september 5 map by a far greater extent,  black being mixed with colour on the largely steady compacted windward side.  This masks the real melt numbers further.  Eventually,  further dispersion will show dramatic melt results. WD September 8,2016

N.P. to Ostrov Komsomolets once ice bridge in taters, dispersing greatly as well as melting

   It was the strongest ice bridge in summer 2016, was from the Pole to Russia,  principally because there was a thinner snow layer which created the thickest ice possible given the warm winter just past.   Now its moving apart rapidly,  look at the central open water ridge moving fast Eastwards. Goodbye Waves a plenty can also be seen on the Leeward side on Sept 7 (left shore).   The Ostrov  Komsomolets ice bridge was huge apparently invincible:

   And now dispersing with the winds,  becoming larger in the process and distorting the melt view.  WD Sep7,2016

Some effects of open water Transpolar Stream Current

It is not so obvious,  there is the Atlantic front,  where there is far less sea ice momentum pushing slowly to the North Atlantic:

  August 26 to September 4  East of Spitsbergen.    Appearing steady or moving North with a lot of melting.

  Fram Strait substantial extent gains with likely the most solid dense ice left unencumbered by TPS sea ice ,  hence the stretching out sea ice peninsula not with numerous Goodbye Waves,  but heading certainly to melt at a much slower rate than Atlantic Front sea ice.WD Sept5,2016

Wrangel bridge waves away: Goodbye!

    Once sea ice melts to Goodbye Waves (slush), it doesn't take very long before these waves vanish to darkness.  Here we have, very late in the season,  prodigious melting not stopping,  Goodbye waves are like the steam after water boils, prominent but fleeting,  from common white to dying artistically,  in 4 days a great deal of sea ice vanished,  and the steam keeps burgeoning. WD September 4,2016

Atlantic Front retreating, likely because no substantial replenishment

~  And Goodbye Waves Palooza everywhere signifying great melting

   If the  Trans Polar Stream has less ice,  it also means less momentum and continuity pushing sea ice towards the Atlantic,  this is what we are observing with JAXA August 27 through to 30 above.  Hence a retreat throughout the Atlantic Front and even if not seen with HRPT photos,  a lot of Goodbye Waves signifying  rapid melting.  It is a reverse flow mirage which has something to do in part with the broken off flow momentum pushing dense sea ice outwards and Cyclone Centre pushing winds Eastward.

   Its a mess on the other side of the pack,  with Goodbye Waves galore,  the ex-Wrangel Ice bridge is rather a modern Art collection of rapidly disappearing sea ice. WD August 31,2016

Wrangel Island ice bridge no more, its a messy combination of very thin broken sea ice and Goodbye Waves

       Goodbye Waves can give a problem with determining wether they are sea ice or as they really are slush:

Goodbye Waves along with very thin emaciated ready to melt sea ice near Wrangel Island August 30, the thin ice almost looks like goodbye waves but they are not quite alike.

August 27-28 ,  JAXA depiction is fairly good ,  but there is a mix between Goodbye Waves and sea ice, seen on 28 apparently having more sea ice,  although the two are from sea ice, they are definitely not alike,  the prominent gap breaking up the ice bridge in two is more prominent on NASA EOSDIS capture (above),  the bridge is no more,  what is left is going goodbye.

JAXA got the Gap almost the same with EOSDIS  on August 29

Goodbye Waves likely caused this confusion.  Look at the 2nd arm of the ice bridge reappearing on August 28.  

The ice bridge collapsed quicker by the cuts of many cyclones,  it was already impossible to walk on

it late July.  It now exists like glue holding 2 tons together.  WD August 30,2016

Trans Polar Stream, first time so wet in history, is simply huge, it may cause a fluid mix accelerating flushing to the warm North Atlantic.

   A  gap in clouds drifted long enough to reveal a huge area of sea water mixed with loose sea ice just South of the North Pole (about 100 nautical miles),  NOAA HRPT.  Of interest is the zone between this opening and Fram Strait,  which has always been a fluid area of sea ice, usually slowed by traffic jams of ice coming from multiple directions.  However, even in winter, this is an area rife with movement.   It may not be strange that it looks more dense with sea ice,  it all bunches up there,  but it is not a static zone especially now:

   Fram Strait is rapidly bulging Southwards with sea ice,  this means that the Open Trans Polar Stream may reach the Strait,  with 0 to +7 C sea surface temperatures.  Notice Goodbye waves between Greenland and Spitsbergen Isles,  they expanded from August 23 to 25 as well,  a sure indication of rapid melting along with the arrival of new sea ice.  If the Trans Polar Stream open zone reaches Fram Strait,  it would mean a much more fluid flow of sea ice to the North Atlantic.

   Note the zone of open water within the Trans Polar Stream appears far more ominous on Satellite pictures,  this is due to AMSR2 15% minimum sea ice per grid rule.   However, any increase in fluidity North of Greenland or Spitsbergen would accelerate the flushing of the real last remnant of dense sea ice North of Greenland as the mixing mashed up zone of subduction would have no pressure from the Trans Polar Stream furnishing usually thick ridged sea ice,  this acceleration may have already started.. wd August 25, 2016

Goodbye waves lack of geometric continuity, drastically different than melting Fram Strait sea ice

    Goodbye Waves,  not showing on JAXA at all, congrats to AMSR2 people having fantastic banzai uber precision,  have shown remarkable geometric contortions in Fram Strait,  all while not readily being identifiable from one day to the next.    Point your mouse cursor on small ice pans and note their lack of motion very unlike the Gwaves, fascinating.  WDAugust 23,2016

Great movement Eastward by latest GAC and predecessors

   A small opening displaying Wrangel island ice bridge has been shrinking and compressing,  even
Goodbye Waves are interestingly bunched up against the ice edge,  either by recent past cyclones and in particular the latest one currently shaping up the icescape further.WDAug15,2016

Sea ice moved away from latest major Low pressure Centre

Latest  880 mb Cyclone was right over Laptev sea yesterday.  This is not a see through cyclone,  rather moderate to strong, we can only see its after effects once passed.  For better understanding of over sea ice floes interactions we must look at just prior sea ice movements.   

East of Franz Joseph Lands,  Sea Ice was mainly moving South.

    Notice near Ostrov Komsomolets likely Southwards moving ice but melting,  leaving a stable but badly shattered ice front with Goodbye Waves.

   In the wake of passage of new 980 mb cyclone centre, East of Ostrov Komsomolets reversal of flow direction , note the reduction in Goodbye Waves numbers and Northwards sea ice displacement.   August 15 winds are blowing  Southeastwards,  the main body of ice did not move in that direction,  but rather away from Low pressure centre. wdAugust15,2016

Atlantic Front: substantial evidence of massive melting, 'goodbye' waves a plenty

All along the North Atlantic sea ice front,  about 1200 Kilometres long,  there are numerous new 'Goodbye' waves,  sure evidence of recent massive melting.  From Fram Strait,  to North of Spitsbergen to beyond Franz Josef lands,  as seen here in our roving NASA EOSDIS shots.  Although the newish extended sea ice front line position has recently expanded and appears  more or less stable, that is an illusion,  the sea ice melts just as fast as it touches warmer water.  The end result is a great loss of sea ice.  Assume Southwards sea ice movement a modest fluid 2 kilometres an hour ,  about 48 kilometres a day melt along apparently a steady front,  potentially 60,000 km2 a day loss is possible, without actual remote sensing detection. WDAugust10 2016.

Individuals always melt away to darkness.

Fram Strait layered Goodbye waves join the ether of the sea.  Rapidly melting sea ice bounces about by collisions with others,  current and winds.  Goodbye waves seem curved and move more uniformly.  Like clouds a top the ocean.

                                                                     North Beaufort Sea. 
                                                     Man shatters the ice,  man looses face

Massive number of "Goodbye" waves don't appear to register on JAXA

~Gyre centred Anticyclone rearranged flow circulation,  a pause in the big extent drops were to be,  however expected to surge again very soon

  Beaufort Sea July 22 August 5 AMSR2 result.   Massive area of 'Goodbye' waves didn't really show up on JAXA which is very interesting,  it rather means that they are essentially slush,  otherwise need be confirmed as such.

  The 'Goodbye' waves of August 4 and 5 set themselves apart from sea ice in many ways,  they are likely very thin slushy sea ice remnants (with  different chemistry?),  very thin because they move faster:

   Goodbye waves are generally faster than sea ice,  as a matter of distinction and practicality, essentially excellent example on how to measure sea ice volume.  Lighter objects floating on sea surface should be swifter, especially if the sea current goes different direction than the winds .   Sea ice moves South while Goodbye waves move West...    Place your mouse pointer on Aug 3 on any large sea ice pan, and determine the distance it travelled,  notice Goodbye waves move greater distances.  WD August 6,2016

Sea ice to water everywhere, latest 2016 melt captures "Goodbye Waves"

   By finding for "Goodbye Waves"  we can confirm melting wherever they are found.
They are useful in confirming thawing in not so common places.   WDAugust2,2016

Numerous sea ice "goodbye waves" North of Northeastern Laptev Sea, Eastern Beaufort and Lincoln Sea

     More whitish sea ice"goodbye"  waves appeared through wavy clouds,  likely  under wind driven stratocumulus or altocumulus appearing slightly greyer on August 1, 2016.   They now occupy top of sea water once covered by sea ice pans July 21 past.    Break up and dispersion of once a huge solid ice field expanse,  surrounding with water its broken up smaller pieces,  accelerated the melting a great deal.  At this date there are huge number of sea ice floes surrounded by open water everywhere in the Arctic.

   Beaufort Sea comprises many drift zones, some intertwine,  South of Banks island mainly Tidal driven ice tends to move East.  Just to the west of Banks is Gyre driven to the Southwest,  the 2 give similar but orientated "goodbye waves"  according to prevailing current.  We can see the gradual rapid melt in progress, but there are still thousands of incoming ice islands from CAB to turn to water.

Lincoln Sea opening to Nares Strait has always a significant tidal (southwards) drift,  but in this case the winds, characterized by August 1 lens NW shaped Stratocumulus ,  easily push away  the sea ice Northwestwards,  note the "goodbye waves" appear the most fluid and mobile zooming like arrows with the wind.  Northern Ellesmere ice conditions are now badly broken and can easily move open for miles in less than a day,  it does so even in the dead of winter because of daily tidal activity causing the "big lead" at times , this is a good summer example.  WD Aug31,2016

Back to water..... That just melted "goodbye" wave look

North of Beaufort sea has similar features to Fram Strait especially now.  Ice almost completely melted gives waves, similar to cirrus clouds announcing an approaching front:

     At extremes of the great Fram Strait melting zone lies the last remnants of sea ice,  whose physical nature really becomes elastic, from solid to slush/rubber to water.  It is a sight everywhere sea ice melts.  In this frame, present Cirrus clouds may be confused with melting sea ice.


    Even North of Beaufort Sea:

     Its melting North of Beaufort very fast.  But just before disappearing,  sea ice takes the shape of waves not so dictated by being very rigid,  these waves are water in transition from appearing solid white to dark liquid.  Each melt region has different melt transition characteristics.  Which is of course as individualistic of the geophysical features about.WDJuly31, 2016