Saturday, June 24, 2017

Almost everything predicted for 2017 is turning out

http://eh2r.blogspot.ca/2017/05/annual-bit-late-2017-northern.html

  The linked above annual spring projection of important weather events is doing just fine.

" The Okanagan valley BC will be hot and dry at first then turn quite wet, Midwest North America will be mostly dry and very hot"

  My favorite prediction written when the Okanagan was on the verge of major flooding due to extensive winter snowfall and spring rain.  The "theory of persistence"  would have made this catastrophe possible,  but the Northern in provenance atmospheric circulation saved the valley (as projected).  The moist Spring turned to above Normal temperatures:
 https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/map/images/rnl/sfctmpmer_30a.rnl.html

Western European Heat wave,   check : http://www.france24.com/en/20170622-paris-pollution-peak-driving-ban-europe-heat-wave-longon-portugal

Less American Tornadoes,
check :http://www.spc.noaa.gov/climo/online/monthly/newm.html

    Note the earlier more intense period of tornadoes,  preceding lesser numbers when there should be more.  The prediction was about this period after mid April.

ENSO to Neutral, 

 check: http://www.ospo.noaa.gov/data/sst/anomaly/2017/anomnight.6.22.2017.gif

   Note the residual cloud seeding from El-Nino 2015-16 replenished water to many areas of the Earth stricken by drought.  

"I would expect record number of melt Ponds -late- from all that thick snow cover. This will accelerate the melt rapidly, numerous melt ponds will signal the start of very rapid melting, after seemingly sluggish melt daily rates interspersed with at times great variations caused by the lack of sea ice consolidation."

   This is indeed happening.


"when this snow disappears in June, there will be huge water ponds, the ice will vanish extremely quickly then after."

   Needless to say,  let us use Barrow Strait Canada with picture animations:


  In 2016 Barrow Strait had significant snow cover over sea ice,  the Strait cleared of ice late June:

http://eh2r.blogspot.ca/2016/07/sea-ice-affected-by-lot-of-snow-end.html

   Winter 2017 had significantly more snowfall especially at end of the long night:

  Down the Baffin Bay drain!   One month earlier than last year.  The sea ice did not stand a chance to withstand even seasonal weather,  because it was so thinned by a very thick snow cover during long Arctic night accretion.  The same is expected to happen wherever there was more snow cover over sea ice,  which may be pretty much the entire pack.  

       So now we wait Barrow sea ice disintegration to hit the larger remaining ice pack.   WD June 24 2017