Friday, September 30, 2016

Chaos after the big de-coiling wave..

    There are no more uni-directional flowing of this sea ice area centered about 81.3 N 170.8 E.
Sea ice is moving SSE in the right upper corner,  towards SE at center and Westwards on the top left hand corner. There is a whole lot of open water.  Thin clouds mask the true nature of sea ice hidden most times. But the easy sea ice deformation processes is obvious,  of apparently a glue of very thin sea ice,  slush or floating snow between surviving older sea ice pans.   Surface temperatures were mild on the 30th,  about -6 C,  at this temp sea ice doesn't form easily if sea water is warmer than -1.8 C.  However,  if the nature of top surface sea water is not so salty,  it can freeze,  but not accrete rapidly enough to slow the ice movement, as apparent here.  Deformations as seen above,  wouldn't happen so quickly if any of the new sea ice was thick.  

   JAXA extent replication of the same area,  pixels do not mimic the open water areas.
I would expect the new ice to thicken when surface temperatures get colder.  But the open water
areas are not only confined to this High Arctic area of North Pole to North Siberian sector.  WD Sep30,2016

Thursday, September 29, 2016

Looking for 2016 Minima Sea ice dispersion "Big Bang" moment

 Impressive  large mass of de-coiling sea ice ^^^^^^^^^^likely in tandem with winds occurred when minima was called (September 9) ,  this huge mass moved at 15 nautical miles a day,  extremely rapid.  It may be the moment triggering an unstoppable  sea ice expansion momentum still happening to this day.  It occurred either September 7 or 8.  A fascinating moment needing more study. WD September 29, 2016

Tuesday, September 27, 2016

Densest pack changes flow direction with ease, at the weakest wind direction change

     The Northwards Bound tracking Pack Ice changed direction,  Southwards on September 26:

 CMC september 27 00z,  a very modest Low pressure system is responsible.    Temperatures about this area are -5 to -6 C.


  The Crush Southwards reveals what is within the gaps,  mainly a mishmash of pulverized older sea ice,  floating snow and may be a hint of new ice as well,  but if present wafer thin .  The winds easily pushed open water to show.  WDSep27,2016

Sunday, September 25, 2016

Raining during an Arctic heat wave, when snow use to reign.

Today's -0.8 C sea surface temperature  was in a Bay loaded with multiyear ice. notice how clean Arctic Sea water is.  Temperature nearer the surface was +1.4 C,  concurrent official weather reading 67 meters ASL +2 C,  8 degrees Centigrade above the average daily Maximum.   With rain:

Ravaged by waves multiyear ice suffers another melt period,  The bigger pans had melt Ponds and turned green:

The true colour of sea ice is revealed once snow cover melted.   The larger pans here are about 2 meters thick,  Arctic Ocean survivors of the summers melt.  A melt pond water temperature was +0.3 C.    Beach ridge top small pebble layer temperature was +2 C,  near where there was water same layer was below zero C.

   Very late September rain can be heard here,  current way above average temperatures are part of a late freeze up trend since 1998,  another El-Nino year all be it smaller ,  2012,   had much later warmer temperatures as well.  The larger older multiyear  ice definitely cools sea water and air,  this invasion of displaced sea ice was unlike 2012 when the Pack was more consolidated and denser on the NW frontier of the Canadian Arctic Archipelago.    2016 had extreme de-coiled sea ice starting when the Transpolar Stream Current lost most of its sea ice in August. WD September 25,2016

Saturday, September 24, 2016

Dense pack keeps on dispersing with leads widening in very warm temperatures.

     Displacement of densest pack ice (83.5 N 111 W)  has accelerated!   From 3 to 4.4 nautical miles Northwards a day.  Expansion between the leads has almost increased universally as well.   Long going, de-coiling momentum synergistically combined with the winds on top of warming temperatures and ever so present non amenable to freezing sea water.  It would be a mistake to infer that extent has increased because of greater coverage of sea ice.  Surface temperatures are -1 to -2 C,  again this event calls for better analysis tools.  The correct interpretation is that there is more open water per grid,  thus less sea ice.

More towards Wrangel Island Russia,  where there is a substantial presence of water the velocity is 6 nautical miles a day towards open water:

   A strongly frozen pack ice can hardly move more than 2 nautical miles a day unless there is a very good reason otherwise,  a blizzard with very strong winds or a sudden gash of open water caused by huge pressure variations.  What we see here is a strong expansion by dispersion,  the gaps between the packs is equally expansive.  The first 3 days Westward displacement of 6 nautical miles a day met with a wind direction change on the 4th day,  these de-coiling expansions are one of a kind,  likely to be common over next subsequent autumns.  WD  Sep 24-25 2016


 WD September 24,2016

Late September heat wave 74.7 North 95 West

Listen at melting sea ice so late in September with temperature 8 degrees above the daily maximum average.  

   At 67 meters above sea level official temperature was +2 C,  at sea level a little higher.  Sea water temp was -0.5 C despite teh Bay being full with colder Multiyear sea ice.  Black rock shore ridge inside temperature was +.6 C.
   Northwest Passage Invasion of pack ice once moving east westwards towards Baffin Bay,  now trapped by strong Southerlies on the South shore of Cornwallis Island.  wd September24,2016

Friday, September 23, 2016

2016 is a dispersed melt season with significant differences with a more compact 2012 within densest remaining pack ice.

    2016 smack where the densest ice should be has had a lot of open water.
  2012 same location slightly to the North of above (because of clouds),  de-coiled sea ice with less open water.

    2012-2016 83.5 N 155 W   again more open water for 2016.

        How exactly do we judge melt seasons when one is dispersed and the other one is compacted?
It would be wiser by sea ice area:

 If we look at this sea ice area graph,   the minima of 2016 is nearly equal to 2012.  That is much more accurate than extent metrics.    The significance of all this,  compact years use to be the norm,  since 2012,  dispersed sea ice at minima has become prominent.    Therefore 2016 minimum sea ice is very close to 2012, either way,  just below or just above, this is important to conceptualize,  a simple concentration figure would lay away a lot of confusion though.WDSeptember 23,2016.  

Thursday, September 22, 2016

Snow or Grey ice or a mix of both? + Rapid displacements at minima.

  September 21  location                             VVVVVVV
 I calculate 30.6 nautical miles displacement in 5 days,  note ^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^  big pan on September 16 just above (86.57N 109.29E).   It travelled on average more than 6 nautical miles a day,  very rapid rate AGAINST the Transpolar Stream Current.  It means that there is a lot of grey ice and floating snow between the broken packs .   If grey areas was new sea ice they would completely cover the gaps,    But if it is floating snow or grey ice the leeward side would be full while the windward (towards the bottom of this page) open,  the open water locations change so it is likely floating snow which changes in texture with time and exposure.   Sea ice would set easier on the windward because pack ice offers no waves and a wind shade facilitating freeze-up more.

83 N 112W smack in the middle of densest but de-coiled pack ice, with temperatures between -10 to -17 C ,  still has open water (by movement) with a daily displacement of 3 nautical miles a day, a very rapid rate for dense pack indeed.  But with new sea ice,  recognized by drifting snow on top of it.  

Meanwhile near Franz Josef lands:

      The flow is equally rapid seen by open leads amongst loose pummeled pack.  The Goodbye Waves are less expansive than before,  but there are many of them.  WD September 22, 2016

Tuesday, September 20, 2016

+0.5 C cloudy weather melts submerged snow, but reappears after overnight snow showers

A day has past  and some ice multi-year ice has moved away along with much less floating/submerged snow.  
Company,  2 Polar bears  and partner in crime fox were just here.  
Yesterday's bergy bit is no longer surrounded by floating snow.  

   Upper left floating snow remains between small multiyear ice gaps,  sea water is colder  there.  September 19 at sea level was +0.5 C briefly,  this was enough to melt away snow rapidly even in -1 C sea water.  September 20 (today) overnight snowfall covered the Bay again with floating snow.  wd September 20,2016

Monday, September 19, 2016

JAXA Density jumps

 September 17 2016 JAXA vast great expanse of open water finally showed quite well,  and is comparable to sat picture:
But It did bot last:

                         JAXA depictions September 15-17-18  top to bottom.  Wild daily variations.
Yet satellite photos show vaster dispersion day by day.    WD September 19,2016

Sunday, September 18, 2016

Vast expansion of scattered sea ice does not seem to record open water extent gains numerically, or it likely snowed a whole lot.

~Snow showers can confuse data to look like sea ice but there are some differences.

     First off,  JAXA extent data kept showing some expansion less one day since the almost official minima,  this is confirmed on satellite pictures,  but sea ice is scattering thinner,  eventually dispersion will show up in the data,  extent expansion should stall,  even despite the 15% rules:

    Vast expansion of scattered sea ice towards Central Russia from Pole.   Infers also that open sea water is expanding,  but JAXA daily extent data numbers does not seem to collapse daily expansiveness,  rather mostly the contrary.  There is,  however,  a very good explanation:

   Invasion of what is left of the Multiyear ice shows striking image,  the top sea ice is smooth the bottom ravaged by -1 C water.  Top sea ice layer has less salt and would be the last to go.  But this bergybit is surrounded by what appears to be smooth sea ice,  look carefully,  it is submerged fresh snow for the most part some segments have the snow sticking above water level.

   Fresh snow on lower tide sea shore gradually submerging in deeper water.
    Submerged snow differs from grey ice in colour and texture,  it mostly appears smooth.
   this years icescape of huge areas of Arctic Ocean broken sea ice makes the accurate measurement of sea ice  even more difficult.  Ice floes smother the wind and wave action moving the snow to pile up or  disperse.  In 2012,  Cryosphere today data recorded a vast expanse of submerged snow as sea ice during calm winds. Likewise 2016 most certainly has had expanding sea ice numbers earlier on account,  in part, of snow fall.  Summer/Autumn Arctic 2016 atmosphere has very moist air.WD September 18, 2016  

Saturday, September 17, 2016

Melting continues 8 days after minima ; A contradiction? Or a missing sea ice to sea water ratio calculation

           The melting continues,  despite minima almost declared formally,  there is a lot of moist air about the entire Arctic,  clouds are very thick layered with rain turning to snow near ground in some parts.  There are at least 3  important Cyclones vicinity or over sea ice,  one is almost quasi-stationary North of Beaufort, laying steady between water and sea ice.  This does not come as a surprise,  the JAXA depiction here of sea is a lot less solid pack than the replication suggests,  there are plenty of warm spot sources keeping the cyclones steady.  Cooling is mainly happening over the  Canadian Arctic Archipelago,  not a surprise as well,   it was foreseen here long ago,  but there is a lot of snow falling from cyclonic activity compounding a warm cold heat engine complex.    

     Since we can't actually 'see' through the clouds without radar images,  we need better visualizations which may in great part explain why melting and extent drop is happening.  Enhanced visuals offer also a qualitative description of state of sea ice,  they can be compared from year to year with the holistic approach rather than simply numeric.  The danger in strictly oversimplifying the true nature of the icescape can't be overstated,  we have here an example which is rife with confusion because we don't appreciate the truer image.  WD September 17, 2016

Thursday, September 15, 2016

Worse Sea ice in History next to North Pole towards Greenland/Spitsbergen

     2012 was the minima  year of record under the 15% peripheral method of measuring sea ice extent or area.   But as shown here just South of the Pole and North of Greenland,  had far denser sea ice, less mobile, as it should have been,  than 2016.  2015 same date showed the leads and fissures about to be bigger the following year.  2016 has utterly chaotic loose fluid sea ice where it was at 2012 minima relatively immobile and solid.   2016 to date has sea ice moving towards the Pole quite rapidly,  incredible if you think of it. The larger question is again raised,  how is 2012 the said minima year when 2016 has far less denser ice pack where it was most solid for Centuries?    Should we use a far more accurate and less esoteric method of judging sea ice quality and quantity?

    Smudges is all we see on September 15, 2016 JAXA,  which if it was so, sea ice would hardly move.   This representation gives a comparable image to 2012:

Same area had similar smudges,  but as we have seen on pictures above,  much more water.
 WD September 15, 2016

Wednesday, September 14, 2016

Cloudless window into the fragile state of de-coiled densest sea ice

   Very un-coiled  state of sea ice on the Canadian Greenlandic side of the Pole continues,  with open leads amongst many fractures easily susceptible to weather,  on the 13th frame we see approaching Low which should change this configuration shortly.

  JAXA September 13 2016.  The 15% rule masks or covers up this state of affairs with apparent sea ice not present.  The illusory diminution of open water is very much greater with loose pack ice presently on the Pole to Russian sector.  It is an acceptable depiction, as long as one is aware of the way these maps are made,  but why not replicate reality as fully as possible and forego this 15% rule at least with different full reality charts?  The luxury of no clouds for good observations is at times rare and fleeting.

  Sept 14 North of extreme NE Greenland very thick sea ice pushed Northwards like if it has a lot of room to move.    WD September 14,2016

Tuesday, September 13, 2016

De-Coiling of Canadian side of Pole causes pan-Arctic sea ice expansion in extent

  Other effect of Transpolar Stream being nothing but a loose gathering of pack ice floating about with the winds,  is de-coiling of the densest pack ice left:

  The Canadian side of the Pole is literally breaking apart.

This has huge consequences throughout the Arctic,  namely expansion of the loose pack towards Russia, Fram Strait bulging and Canadian Arctic Archipelago invasion of decompressed sea ice:

The tide current in the CAA is uninterruptible ,  no matter where the winds originate.  The Straits cause a funneling of massive area (not height)  of Arctic Ocean daily tides pushing against the Archipelago NW shores.  If sea ice becomes looser in its densest pack,  more free flowing sea ice gets carried by tidal currents. WD September 13,2016 

Saturday, September 10, 2016

Plenty of melting not that it shows numerically

Franz Josef Land has near 0 C temperatures, but with sst's +2 C
Goodbye Waves a plenty,  and some opposite Transpolar Stream action effectively returning the loose pack towards the North Atlantic on its Eastern sector:  

JAXA chart  keeps on showing expansion of sea ice,  which is exactly following the 15% rule.  
There is likely no freezing,  mainly moving loose sea ice in contrary direction of the Transpolar Stream:

Looking carefully,  even with colder sea water and air near the Pole,  there is a presence of Goodbye Waves.  But far skinnier than near Franz Josef Lands.  

  The apparent open water gap filling sea ice is nothing but pack ice having plenty of dispersing room.  Note a huge sector of denser pack ice as well moving towards Russia,  likely part of de-coiling of Canadian side sea ice.    The 15% rule is very bad in describing this event pictographically. The sea ice provenance area has more expanded open water,  this does not show at all on JAXA chart,  because there is a great deal of shattering,  sea ice moving one way,  transpolar current moving the other,  plenty of stress, movement and collisions, but what the chart doesn't show is the vastness of open sea water.  Much greater than ever before near the North Pole.  WD September 11,2016

Titanic case reopened!

~National Geographic excellent presentation about likely reason for R.M.S.  Titanic collision with Iceberg has only one problem:  Its not possible.

~ Actually said so after it was presented,  and now proof

~  Water walls are the rarest refraction effect ever,  never seen in the land of refractions.

Friday, September 9, 2016

Massive De-coiling Canada Greenland sector continues

   The thickest densest sea ice left in the Arctic is unravelling at its faults lines.

18z CMC Sep 9 2016 surface chart has no significant meteorological reason for this.

     This is what less sea ice does when missing megatons of pressure does not push towards Greenland. The flow is almost always Eastwards,  but a tempered jammed Eastwards.  WD Sep 10, 2016

Dispersion of very melted broken up sea ice makes the 15% rule obsolete

     Russian sector of the North Pole had clearly a net expansion of extent,  but not because it was freezing,  much rather from the poor condition of extremely thinned breaking up sea ice.   All while there was melting.  So it is very difficult to judge either how fast the melting is unless dispersion is taken into account.    The other way to judge is by Goodbye Waves:

    Dispersing more rapidly Goodbye Waves are a sign of melting amongst winds and currents.   Judging melting correctly would be to factor in,  not exclude by an arbitrary rule,  every parcel of open water and sea ice as accurately as possible.   WD Sep 9,2016