Monday, March 21, 2022

Sun disks confirm anomalous Arctic warming

 ~Especially away from the Cold Temperature North Pole

~Presently in the extreme Northern Arctic lands of Ellesmere and North Siberia

      It took a while ,  more  extensive cloud cover slowed data acquisition, but today help  gathered more than 50 sun disk measurements having a remarkable 20% result of vertical sun disks being above all time highest decimal averages.  5% is considered normal random result,  indicating no warming or cooling of the atmosphere.  20% is 4 times above normal.  Not seen like this since 2010 and 2016.   Turns out there is a warming,  particularly over the Arctic Ocean, not coming as a surprise given the thinner sea ice:

    Indeed , all time high temps coincide with increasing clouds and the perpetuation of North Atlantic and Pacific moisture well above the Arctic circle,  this evenings CMC 700 mb  chart shows where the heat was found to be,  not only today but for about the last 2 weeks.  

     In yellow is the area where sun disks were measured.  There was a significant CTNP off West central Greenland a few days ago,  now the CTNP hovers above Ellesmere Island.   The CTNP was much further South preceding West Greenland,  it had no staying power because of proximity to the North Atlantic,   CTNP migrated from Northern Quebec to West Greenland and finally central Ellesmere in about 8  days., all while flowing air from the Arctic Ocean basin southwards West of 90W degrees longitude.  In the not so distant past,  this would have meant a significant deep freeze in the same area in yellow.  Vertical sun disks are far more sensitive to the temperature of the entire atmosphere, than at any particular altitude.  At recent vernal equinoxes particularly 2018, 2019  and 20,  the CTNP was situated above the central Canadian Arctic Archipelago,  strongly shrinking vertical sun disks,  2022 equinox scene is different, more like 2017 and preceding years,  when sun disks were much expanded and representing the whole Arctic.  Measuring sun disks from center of CTNP gave a peculiar distorted view representing a stable center of extreme cold clear sky weather which was unique compared to past 17 years.  Colder air, albeit smaller in extent,  can subsist even when warming is almost overwhelming at every locations.
WD March 21 2022

Monday, March 7, 2022

CTNP moves; Siberia Canadian Arctic Archipelago back to Siberia

~ Winter 2021-2022 story to date,  CTNP shifts from Siberian dominance to the CAA and returning to Siberia.

~ Canadian Archipelago recent dominance is fading fast.

    The larger question throughout winter is always explaining the reason for Cold Temperature North Pole location at any given daily location.    Turns out 2021 early winter Siberian dominance may have been caused by Arctic Ocean having more open water,  hence more snow,  onsets early winter there, On Canadian side of Arctic, winter was delayed by incredible warming and less snow,  unusual considering last few years same periods.  

    Early Winter CTNP Siberia shifted gradually to Canada, largely because
it blew cold continental air across the just frozen Arctic Ocean,  in a river of cold air, clearly seen above and below.  This flow was unstoppable, the Siberian Polar Vortice assured this.  Eventually
the very moist flood giving Pacific North American flow of air was cut off by a huge stable Pacific High,  in part created by this flow.  This formed new anticyclones East of the Rockies which rapidly sent the Prairies in a deep freeze,  the stable cold clear reverse feedback cooling  air at 40 to 50 degrees North latitude over not so much snow covered land can go in a deep freeze fast because the sun is low in elevation and the nights are long in January.  This deep freeze eventually  joined the real area of very cold North American air in the CAA,  causing the first strong North American CTNP vortice,  dominating the Northern world.  However,  the incredible North Pacific blob of warm water temperature finally was returned by no less than the CAA CTNP,  another quasi permanent West to East circulation.   Now North America is facing a warming caused by the very center of coldest air apply placed about Hudson Strait.  As we can see below,  North America is about to warm substantially with a far weaker CTNP core vortice:

A weekly NOAA composite summary of 600 mb temperatures brings out what is to come.  Cold air may be stable next to a giant iceberg,  Greenland,  but is very vulnerable if pushed over the Atlantic, as it has been during the last few days, but before it vanishes,  the warmth of the Pacific has been dragged over much of North America.  This moist laden heat flow will eventually stall, and the last remnants of a weak winter may barely reach a wide area,  I'd expect a weak CAA CTNP vortice as already confirmed by sun shots,  giving about average differential refraction sun disks.  As the loop above shows, the extent of Polar Vortex  cold air is rather small,  guarantees  a shorter winter, early spring.  WD March 6 2022