Thursday, April 25, 2024

2024 Summer Fall projection forecast based on Arctic in origin synopsis

~ Similarities with recent years may be few

~Very late Arctic Basin High to Low pressure switchover is expected


   Clouds domination affect two primary weather parameters, one is snow on the surface, two is apparent slow melting of sea ice.  In other words, an apparent cooling will be the result,  building cold High pressure systems, which become stable over the Arctic basin Gyre until a switchover occurs, this when cold surface air is part of a summer Low pressure system. There should be a High pressure system dominating most days over the Arctic Basin Gyre throughout this period. The extra snow is a proxy for sea ice, it is not as stable as sea ice, from snow sublimation and under sea ice warmer water temperatures.  The thinner sea ice area come June and July, bereft of snow, will likely maintain a summer High pressure system, favoring warmer air. Thereafter, when the ice melts, open Polar cooler ocean becomes the main main attraction for Arctic summer cyclones, so switchover is expected in late July primarily because winter heat imprint on sea ice on the Canadian side of the Pole is far stronger than on  the Russian side.  This late switch in pressure system locations would have been much earlier given a CTNP dominances on the Canadian side, that was not the case.  A double H high pressure symbol,  from blue to war red, indicates the evolution of the nature of anticyclones when spring turns to summer. The cold nights and low noon sun of spring favors High’s being cold, eventually the sun gaining height in the sky literally changes the nature of pressure systems. A Blue High indicates a stable much slower transition, like wise with cyclones which are usually always cooler in summer, but except for in origin warm sea cyclones,  including intense hurricanes. 


    The Arctic basin Gyre will be blasted by more sun rays than usual on account of a late pressure switchover, at about mid July onwards the extreme sun bath slows down.  Desert High Pressures will expand in extent Northwards in both America and from North Africa.   The Lone CTNP cell will hang about Russia, apparently causing a delay in ice melting there.  The Polar jet stream will collapse in pieces  but along  near this cell.  Cold surface hugging cyclones will dominate wherever open water subsists, one must remember the effects of El-Nino worldwide extra clouds on creating extra precipitation, making their final disruptions, mid west North America late July onwards.  The dissolution of the CTNP will finally entail a strong late melting rate on the Russian side of the Pole, 


   Unfortunately, predicting that there will be another great sea ice melt is easy, its final form, extent and where it melts not so.  Eventually as August progresses Greenland takes prominence as the only Mega albedo area in the Arctic, it should become the CTNP, but its altitude prevents this, however remnant Arctic Basin sea ice will team up with Greenland to form the new Polar Vortex of sorts, hence a zone of High pressures to the North and Southwards of Greenland will be encroached by slow moving cyclones. East of Greenland median cyclones often to become quasi stationary over open vast open sea water areas.  To the West of Greenland median ever so inching Northwards cyclones appear to  struggle moving North by Synoptic weather systems.  Western Europe and Central North America will have  significant slow moving High Pressures not part of the desert anticyclones further Southwards. As El’Nino does not usually foster numerous hurricanes , the few will be caught from being quasi stationary by the elongated Greenland Southern High pressure, ensuring slow rotational death at sea in the East Atlantic, or slow encroachment Northwards joining the Eastern North American seaboard.  Not like typhoons venturing further  North than ever thought possible.  The biggest problem for a complete Arctic sea ice melt will continue, mainly by two factors; waning El-Nino twinned with the ever so persisting North Pacific surface sea water high temperature blob, a perpetual cloud machine.  I’d expect a greater melt than 2012 but not by much, Arctic basin sea ice remnants at minima will look awfully battered and emaciated though. Freeze-up in October will permeate the Arctic Ocean shores with even more fast ice extending much larger than October 2023.   If the Arctic Ocean winter come December looks like a dark ring of thin ice throughout the entire inner Sea, 2025 melt will finally clear at the Pole. It was amazing to witness thick pack sea ice not overpowering the much thinner NW Canadian archipelago expansive dark fast ice all winter.   The end of summer sea ice is nigh within a few years if this dark ring occurs.  In the mean time, Canadian side 2024 Northwest passage will open first before the Russian North East one, however the broken ice from the larger Basin will clog channels up for a while.  

    Over all weather is what you’d expect from the last few years except for the greater moisture impact El-Nino gives, a tandem dynamic effect in the Polar regions was and is a significant CTNP shift towards Russia, it is very unlikely that weather in most parts of the Northern Hemisphere will be the same as Summer 2023.  Rather the only thing similar is the slow sluggish movement of weather systems, obviously under more rainy conditions, that is a key difference , but not where massive anticyclones hardly move.  For some celebrate during  great sunny weather days, for others too much every day solar heat than desired induces Air Conditioning isolation inside the smaller world home, too much of any weather feature is never pleasant.  The consequences of slow moving pressure systems give simultaneous extreme weather differences within the same continents, ‘extreme lack of familiar weather’  will be key often repeated words surely  to be used.

Extraordinary Polarview central Northwest coast of the Canadian Arctic Archipelago black fast ice (2024/02/18), fast ice is first year ice while the white ones are multiyears), stayed like so the entire winter, while in a few years past would have been easily crushed when first formed in late autumn.  

Shoreline black ice survived all winter long well into the spring,  and is now moving with rest of Basin pack after early spring break.  Such ice, thinner and new year, ringing the entire Arctic Ocean Basin shoreline in October would be a bad presage announcing a coming wider if not complete sea ice melt.  

     NOAA sea surface temperature page, the great Pacific high sea surface temperature blob survives still, except a bit weaker, nevertheless a great cloud enhancer considering even a weakening El-Nino combined with every sea warmer, notably and especially the Atlantic and Indian oceans. These are progenitors of heavy rains, and for the Arctic, more clouds.WD April 24, 2024   

Sunday, April 21, 2024

Annual summer early fall climate weather projection, by unorthodox means, the one and only place that does so, with actual database.

~Summer 2024 is already baked hot

~Slow transition to La-Nina, there still persists a surplus of Arctic clouds

~2016-2024 remarkably similar, suggesting a 2016 summer 

~ Вот это да! Cold Temperature North Pole was more Siberian Russian

WHAT is the score?  Vertical sun disk differential refraction results.

The most potent forecast tool in the world, number of average maximum vertical sun disks, at decimal elevation from 0 to 10 degrees, confirm there is an El-Nino, might seem a ridiculous statement,

but all measurements were done 4476 nautical miles from the equator, keep that in mind.

Astounding Results, La-Nina’s or La-Nina type seasons rank in the bottom , El-Nino’s or close to El-Nino peaks rank in the top, strong sea ice melts rank in the middle, such as 2021,2016, 2012 and 2007.  Sea ice will be dealt with later, it is not so simple, all the while of these years sea ice has been progressively thinning, it is no longer comparable without injecting this fact.   2024 had #1 ranking for the longest time during this cloudy observation period, gradually as the sun set further North, vertical sun disk diameter measurements got smaller, because sun rays penetrated the true cold Polar airmass Northwards of 270 degrees azimuth.  This year was no exception, but there were a few records North of 270 degrees, it was amazing. I expected the Cold Temperature North Pole centre to nearly always show record shrunken sun disk diameters North of 270, as was with previous recent years.  But that was not the case. CTNP was mainly in Russia, self driven away by onslaught of record warm North American temperatures, which were in no small part driven by Polar Vortex morphology.  Data from 355 vertical sun disks observations, each one having huge potential in measuring the temperature of the entire atmosphere, like placing thousands of thermometers in line towards the sun all the way to space.  The Southwards sun disks, almost all of them, were near record or surpassing record measurements.  Of each individual elevation degree levels, from 0 to 10 degrees,  9 were 0.1 minutes or more (minutes of arc) above average of 2006 to 2021, however all 2024 individual degree averages were above years 06 to 21.  We note 2018,19,20,22 and 23, all years mainly taken at or near centre of CTNP, making the bottom of the rankings, 2024 marks a significant shift in weather patterns, wherever you are in the Northern Hemisphere, expect different weather, which in some parts of the world is good, in other areas which benefited recent years good summer weather, sorry for the change.  In retrospect 2021, 2006, 2005 and 2009 all had spring time ENSO warming.  Which leads to an interesting posit; are ENSO and the Polar regions CTNP’s placement interlocked?  Does one need the other to reappear?


Round is the word, for most sunsets such as this one March 11 2024, very tame , lame, no refraction miracles.  

      The entire sunset season was defined by excessive clouds, as one might have during a strong El-Nino period.  The sea ice also formed late in the fall of 2023, under mostly cloud covered skies, meaning ice did not accrete as much as usual, this thinnest guarantees weaker inversions.  When the sun reappears during the long night, it warms the sea surface more, and the thermal sea ice rebound is less immediate with thinner ice, in other words, the creation of 

thermal layers is more gradual, therefore less horizon sky anomalies.  Skimming from the few sunsets gathered were mostly Southwards, thus shorter spring days by the mere warming of the Arctic. 

First underwater sea ice interface melt

   First melt occurs when a thermal balance is obtained by solar for forcing, when the bottom of sea ice starts melting.  The thicker the sea ice the greater sunshine is needed. This melting is temporary, still allowing

over all daily accretion eventually bottom melting last hours until melting exceeds accretion, then the ice starts breaking apart.  2024 winter had primarily no snow on the surface, a benefit for sea ice accretion, 

if the low snow cover remains in the spring, it is detrimental for accretion. This years first melt occurred March 16,  one

of the lowest on record, but it snowed a lot more after that date,  thus sparing a continuance of longer under sea ice melting.  As a consequence of this spring gained  more normal snow cover, It took nearly a month for bottom melting 

to resume on April 11.  Although the bottom melting has stopped for a while, ice accretion of course lessened, because of thicker snow insulation,  it was likely a zero sum gain for sea ice thickness.  But indeed an illusion for the larger total 

 sea ice extent it may give as viewed from space.  If this snow cover gain spread throughout the Arctic, I don’t see why not, because of the Atlantic and Pacific moist air dominance, bearing more clouds and snow, this was equally seen with

polar orbiting satellites as some Arctic basin leads, in particular vast areas with thinner sea ice changed colour from grey to white.  The over all sea ice extent may appear larger, but eventually will foster  more melt ponds, over thinner ice,  a catastrophic situation only to be averted by excess cloud cover, which is not foreseen, as El-Nino peak is waning.   

This Concludes the in situ synopsis, next is the over all consequences to be learned from this analysis based on key data. WD April 21, 2024

Friday, April 19, 2024

With less clouds near land, Arctic sea ice shrink

 ~Comparison 2016-2024 El-Nino to El-Nino

~Less cloud factor spells potential doom with current Arctic Sea ice thinned state

There is always less clouds on the East continental coasts when (West to East) air skims over long distance land as opposed to sea. On the East coasts of Asia and America 2024 JAXA sea ice is almost vanished, while comparing sea ice extent between El-Nino winters 2024 Vs 2016 which was the last major El-Nino year. We have here clear example of current state of sea ice, it is overall thinner, therefore melts easier with more sun (less clouds).  This means that 2024 sea ice melt will be remarkably vulnerable from more sunshine.   Unfortunately it seems the worse case scenario for sea ice is unfolding, years of thinning ever so slowly, in a precarious state, it might be facing a La-Nina late summer and fall, over all fewer clouds, because of the cloud seeding effect (a theory of mine), during El-Nino there is more clouds world wide, therefore a warmer winter.  When morphing to a La-Nina summer, it makes for a super hot summer, because winter didn't freeze the world as much as it could, and there will be less albedo sun ray reflecting clouds.  Hence guaranteeing a very low sea ice extent Minima come September 2024.   

As predicted, the greater the warming of the planetary atmosphere the smaller but colder the center of the Polar Vortex will be,  spring 2024 NOAA composites of 2016 vs 2024 proves the idea. the shrinking of the cold zone made continental East Coast sea ice vulnerable to a much warmed winter land surface.
We note:  Siberia had the colder spring and most so during winter, henceforth sea ice footprint is made. 
North American Polar ice is set to take a further appearance of melting, but it really is because it never accreted as much as normal (like 2012). Note the Californian coast of 2024 having more an onslaught of the jet stream, hence more moisture, hopefully smothering wildfires for a while to come.   WD April 19, 2024