Wednesday, January 12, 2022

Shrinking of winter, one year at the time

~The bitter cold "Arctic Blast" isn't as big as it use to be

~Visual proof of Global warming very apparent,  especially when La-Nina periods look like El-Nino

          Winter 2021-22 started small:

In fact millions of square kilometers smaller than 1977,  2016 very powerful El-Nino warming is comparable to modest La-Ninas during  2020 and 2021 as well,  astounding if you think of it.  The only quadrant from North Pole apparently not so much changed since 77 is the Russian side.  Temperatures at 600 mb are more influenced by greenhouse gases and surface temperatures than the stratosphere,  which tends to cool when the troposphere warms.  600 mb is also the closest pressure level to the density weighted temperature (DWT)  of the entire troposphere.  

Latest December mean 600 mb winter temperatures have equally shrunken in extent quite visibly.  In particular in the Canadian Arctic, North Pacific and Atlantic.  2021-22 loss of the Canadian Arctic frost continental wide 'bite" was particularly felt on the Eastern North American coast.  Notably because the extent of cold Polar vortex centers,  highly circulating influential vortices,  are smaller.  It does not mean that smaller vortices are warmer,  they can be just as cold as ever or even more deeply cold.   Cold Temperature North Poles of smaller extent are equally mobile and can navigate the Globe rapidly,  easily making people forget the warm winter they enjoyed so far.  Again it is quite obvious that the new world climate winter order will be dominated by Siberia.  Implying dramatic changes not experienced by humans in many parts of the world.  In particular NW Europe,  the Canadian Archipelago CTNP vortice has huge implications if absent.  Namely the Gulf Stream cyclones can turn Westwards instead of Northeastwards towards Ireland and the UK.  Alaska benefited extreme warming for lack of the Canadian Archipelago bulge as well.  The other large unknown is what will this do to the Gulf Stream itself,  in the long run a significant Atmospheric circulation change also gets to influence Ocean currents.  WD Jan12 2021