Annual EH2r late spring, summer, early fall projection by unused refraction measurements and by other unusual means

 ~Arctic Ocean heat influence dominated the entire mid winter onwards

~General outlook again mired by the great North Pacific warm temperature blob which masks the ENSO signal.

~But the imprint of Arctic CTNP's will have huge impact

We start with the last NOAA daily analysis, effectively sadly ending March 17, 

The weighted temperature of the entire atmosphere happens closely at 600 mb level. Of which we clearly see the impact of much thinner sea ice on late fall early winter Arctic Ocean area.   

 This continued to form a mega Cold Temperature North Pole, CTNP,  causing winter to split in two separate Polar vortices, the big one being on top of the Canadian Arctic Archipelago.  The impact of such prolonged imprint is obvious.  It lasts well after winter is gone. Effectively controlling the weather general circulation for the entire  coming summer fall  

MAY 2026

   The dominance of the CTNP imprints bring late Spring cooler but drier for most of North America. The Arctic Ocean pressure switchover will come late. 

JUNE JULY 2026

                  The marked difference with preceding summers is the Arctic Ocean Pressure systems change switching late at the detriment of Arctic Ocean basin sea ice or the benefit, if you like, of a cooler beginning of summer.but drier midwest  continent, but much wetter South Eastern US.    Less stagnancy than again last few summers, more fluid movement except for Southwest US. 

August September 2026

        Winter past strong cold surface imprint will devastate the Arctic Basin sea ice (what is left in white), much similar to 2007, when the presence of a High pressure hovering over the Arctic gyre melted the thickest sea ice very rapidly.  Most areas sea surface temperatures are also much warmer further northwards in latitude, assuring the melting to be even faster .  The only good effect of this imprint is the less than stagnant general circulation at peak of summer.  Making hurricanes not last long in one spot causes less damage.  The High tropopause measured throughout winter usually signals less tornadoes, as compared to 2011, remains to be seen if this luckily happens.  Same goes for near ocean shore forest fires, less than usual expected,  especially with the extra impact of El-Nino helps with more rainfall. The big question is what happens the North Pacific Great warm temperature blob, El-Nino extra moisture means more clouds, will this massive blob cool down?  Since its formation it was the only sea ice saviour, the extra cloud cover it generated in the Arctic increased rainfall, but stopped the sun from doing prolonged damage, helped maintain a long lasting Low Pressure over the Arctic gyre, slowing down the dumping of sea ice towards the North Atlantic.  This season the Canadian Arctic archipelago will face dry hot air from Siberia instead. 

   OTHER facts

      First melt occurred late, April 1.  First melt of sea ice is an optical feature measured when the sea ice horizon matches the astronomical horizon, it implies bottom sea ice melting in progress, which significantly slows down sea ice accretion.  As first melt optical height is observed to last longer during the day, sea ice thickness growth becomes smaller and smaller, eventually stops leading up to net over all melting.  This measurement gives insight into the shipping season.  East Siberian passage will open first, Canadian Northwest passage later, only to receive again a whole lot of broken unconsolidated pack ice from the Arctic Ocean,  the NW passage easy navigation should occur only late in the season. 

University of Bremen,  although Sea Arctic sea ice seems more bountiful same time of the year compared to baseline 2016, the result at the end of the melt season should be less sea ice than 2012,

for three reasons, over all sea ice is thinner,  sea surface temperatures significantly warmer and general circulation favouring hot summer Siberian air to pummel the basin with more sunlight.  

What's the score?

     Differential refraction readings, more than 500 of them, did not shed much of a surprise, vertical sun disk diameters were mostly shrunken,  to the mid range of the 2002-2026 database. Only 4% of 120  decimal levels were above average.  There was a significant surprise anyways, the usual late in season sun disk measurements were always shrunken more than the earlier ones. Why? Despite the atmosphere warming at Cornwallis Island 75 N Latitude, the atmosphere was always much colder further North. This year  the measurements taken from the Northwest were mostly more expanded, warmer!  Very unusual, likely the first time this happens, implying a much warmer top of Arctic Ocean sea ice atmosphere.  The differential sun disk over all data seems to affirm a stepping oscillation feature that is becoming apparent in line with sea ice thickness.......    NOT FINISHED......

WD May 3....   

Hatshepsut Pharaoh ascension and start of temple inauguration: November 23 1396 and January 1 1395 BCE

 ~Great strides can be made from the 25th year anniversary article preceding this one.

~Modern official surveying bearings of her magnificent temple passes the test issued by no other than Architect, Astronomer and Vizier Senenmut's astronomical ceiling.

~  This is likely the most precise back dates because Senenmut left for himself and indirectly for posterity, correct planetary positions along the ecliptic.  

     Popular to this day Pharaoh Hatshepsut has had many achievements throughout her lifetime.  She ruled largely at about the zenith of Egypt at peace, therefore great construction projects were possible,  of course, the climate was also favourable, even the political one.   Her said to be coronation as pharaoh, according to current chronology was 1479 BCE, off from a winter solstice alignment of her temple at Dair El Bahari by best calculations yet,  84 years.  This result is a reasonable tightening of the official chronology gap which was, according to EH2r, off by about 180 years for Khufu Akhet in 2371 BCE.  As time progresses towards the Roman Empire era, the current ancient chronology becomes more accurate. 

    Hatshepsut's home,  Thebes, was the Capital of Upper Egypt, where the great temples at Luxor and Karnak were not entirely dedicated to RA, but rather Amun-Ra amongst others, the main dedications are a blend of 2 Gods, not quite very similar to the lower Egypt RA dominance during  the Old kingdom.  The Hyksos capture of the Delta region has ensured an evolution whereas Upper Egyptian religiosity became dominant.   Therefore only one Akhet Khufu celebration was likely kept, the joining of the souls, during Hatshepsut days, November 23, from December 9.  Hatshepsut gender made her assert being daughter of a God, for this to happen, the days of the Gods,  or pharaoh "0" onset, needed to resurface, that is, when the winter solstice culminations of both Sirius and the Sun occurred on the same day.   With the winter solstice rekindled in importance as the second most important day, the inauguration of her temple, was set for January 1 1395 BCE, where there is a very small in length shaft, similar to the great pyramid only to view through and or project the imprint of sun rays, as with Akhet Khufu South shafts.

Astronomer Senenmut sets the record correctly

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Astronomical_ceiling_of_Senenmut%27s_Tomb

  As a reminder when awakening from his tomb, Senenmut inscribed important astronomical events, foremost the coronation day of his pharaoh.  Of which 4 planets occurred in this order: Venus, Mercury , Saturn and Jupiter

https://www.journals.uchicago.edu/doi/abs/10.1086/346509

Page 322 323

                             Venus Mercury                                 Saturn                 Jupiter

Of which Saturn and Jupiter are adorned with the Horus name of Hatshepsut.  Strongly suggesting a coronation event, especially with Sopdet/Isis and Osiris on their celestial boats immediately to the right.  

The importance of Isis/Sopdet having the sun or RA on top her head should not be underestimated, it is the day of joining, when RA and Sopdet/Sirius rises from exactly the same horizon location and culminates again exactly at the same elevation due South.   Here the sun and Sirius are interchangeable.  

   November 23 1396 BCE starts with Mercury near the horizon and Venus above preceding the sunrise.  Saturn followed by Jupiter on the solar system ecliptic,  lagged behind the sun, can't be seen until much later.  At sunrise,  Sirius setting vanished nearly exactly on a parallel Western horizon azimuth, the merge of 2 Gods has started.  The noon sun transit has had all 4 planets present but invisible, in this order : Jupiter and Saturn,  the Sun, Mercury and Venus in the West.  At sunset, Sirius rose after in the East,  while visible Saturn followed by Jupiter were setting in the West.  Ancient Horizon wise,  Jupiter setting adjoined Sirius rising on the opposite Eastern horizon.  

     The two turtles between Mercury and Saturn columns are likely an attempt to explain, two pairs of stars, planets were considered stars, not visible due to sun brightness.  

  As always the view of the horizon must be taken, Senenmut Southern ceiling portion has two distinct periods, one for the near twilights (left),  the other for the night (right), night being the only time when Mars was visible ( inscribed by the boat with 5 stars above it).  With Venus and Mercury only visible before sunrise,  Saturn and Jupiter only observable for a while after sunset.  During the full day, Venus appeared first, but vanished after Mercury in morning daylight, later late evening Jupiter appeared first in soon to be dusk light, disappeared last like Venus did, the turtles signify brightness appearing to devour especially Mercury and Saturn. 

     Unlike modern astronomy perspective, the horizon was the standard of observation,  the line of which celestial objects were observed and measured.   Upon Hatshepsut's ascension day,  Venus appeared first, Mercury second.  With respect to the horizon evening and celestial objects rotation,  Saturn, in the West, was eventually seen nearest ground,  therefore third,  completing the day, Jupiter last to submerge 4th.  The horizon point of view, as presented on a ceiling,  accurately described the true celestial positions, as they crossed the astronomical horizon.  The planetary hieroglyph columns elegantly reflected the horizon astronomical day illustratively,   EAST being left, and WEST being towards the right, in the morning Venus appearing first extreme left, further clockwise truly Southwards Mercury shows up,  in the evening Saturn is seen more Southwards than Jupiter eventually crossing the horizon line downwards last, at extreme right in the West, bringing forth the night.  This visual horizon caused transmutation gives the reverse order of appearance as seen on an astronomical program of the sun at transit .  

  As written above there are two important events in a life of a Pharaoh, the inauguration of a temple site and especially the coronation day.  

    On November 23 1396 BCE Hatshepsut ascent,  the day of joining,  when the sun and Sirius rose at the same location, and culminated at the same elevation perfectly to the South.  Senenmut planetary alignment was a perfect date stamp transcribed from the sky to his ceiling.  This planetary positional combination continued until a little after the winter solstice,  when  he inauguration of Hatshepsut's mortuary temple happened.

Magnificent temple 

       Winter Solstice  1395, January 1, is inauguration day at the start of construction of Hatshepsut's masterpiece, directed towards the horizon winter solstice sunrise, already carefully mapped during Hatshepsut's regency.  Figuratively and intentionally integrating in the building plans of her mortuary temple; the joining day of the very first coronation close to 2000 years prior.  

   Hatshepsut entrance way has a certain orientation (Google Earth),  definitely towards the winter solstice which is a great time setter because winter solstices do drift gradually Northwards. A proper high precision local GPS survey has not been available at time of this article.  

Of the paper:

Studying the Orientations of Luxor Ancient Egyptian

Temples Using QuickBird Images

by Mosalam Shaltout and Ahmed Ibrahim Ramzi

     We have:

    We have two satellite azimuths towards the solstice, having a small variance,  the Senenmut winter Solstice, with a computer program incorporating refraction of a net horizon height of .8 degrees,  gives an alignment of 116 degrees and 33 minutes, smack right in the middle between the two satellite results.  

Conclusion

     As presented in Khufu Akhet inclination article, it was very possible to demarcate a very precise sunrise position, by the knowledge of sun microdots positioning, within 2 arc seconds.  However the Great Pyramid had far less documentation than Hatshepsut's temple.  Thanks to Hatshepsut stellar architecture and Senenmut resurrection memory helper, we have 2 methods of narrowing a back date for Hatshepsut's ascension to the throne.  Both highlight the same days.   

   [ Hatshepsut coordinates:   25 degrees 44 minutes 12 seconds North 32 degrees 36 minutes 24 seconds East] .   WD April 18,19, May 1, 2026

EH2r 25th Anniversary special: The inspiration for the first smooth sided ancient Egyptian pyramid is a time stamp

 ~To all regular readers of this science blog,  this is a treat just for you!

~ The culmination of many discoveries, no pun intended, as you might read below

~This portion of a paper to be peer reviewed,  the rest having much more details,  is my way to celebrate all this work.  So many discoveries, some small some much bigger than what follows below;

Note to the Egyptologists who I have corresponded with;  improving the ancient chronology is not a scandal nor a failure in Egyptology, it is something grand to celebrate!  Some of the following could not be done without your efforts.

From the paper:

Sunrise microdot horizon positioning, Great Pyramid construction years by Hb Sb festivals, allowing very accurate astronomical back dating, confirmed by 51.84 degree side inclination

...............<<<<<<<

Horizon observations are complex, atmospheric refraction “mirages” often confuses matters greatly.  However rudimentary tools, such as a plumb line, or ancient

  Merkhet (7), suffice. Even if having multiple generations of priests observing the Goddess Nut giving birth to the sun God RA every day, while equally having no idea that the Earth was round orbiting the sun, does not mean that they were incapable of perfect time keeping. Once established without too much perturbations, having the ability to pass on knowledge for centuries, Egyptian priest observers learned that sea level horizons may be problematic.  Higher elevation ones far less.  Very early on, at inception of their first observations, they realized that the winter solstice sun shadow at noon, matched Sirius transit elevation perfectly particularly after the beginning of the growing season. With skill and a curtain of Merkhets in front of the hand held one, the local return of Sirius can be mapped year by year with  great accuracy.  But there was a major problem to overcome with ancient sunrise observations, the sunrise was blinding white bright, impossible to survey, or even not healthy to look at especially for measurement purposes.  A way was devised from the experience learned from thousands of observations passed on from one generation of RA priests to the next.  To prove this, there is another but modern day problem, it may be more rare to replicate accurate horizon star mapping over Egyptian landscapes today.  For this we must go where there is no pollution with limestone hills, the Polar regions.  The desert and Arctic have no trees, both places are ideal for horizon mapping.  

Cornwallis Island’s Resolute Bay Nunavut Canada High Arctic air offers excellent clear pollution particulate free air to study what it was like to look at the horizon during ancient times:

(A) 16 Km away top of Sheringham hill sun disk microdot, jagged limestone hills help create them. 

         Resolute Bay top of Cape Sheringham March 30 sunsets 0.29 degree Elevation:

                                                          Zenith  Azimuth

                                               2016   90.83  289.58

                                               2020   90.88  289.83

   

  3 Km away Cape Martyr hill sun microdot, high horizon filming

     Top of Cape Martyr February 25   near 2 degree Elevation

            

                          Zenith  Azimuth

              2004     88.79    227.49

             2016      88.75   227.48   {sun flash Microdot}

              2020    88.75    227.52

               ( Notice the Azimuth literally being equal)

March 24, Katimavik reverse pyramid sunset with raised sea ice, made strange by many thermal layers. Below astronomical horizon refraction effects, higher altitude observer view.

                                   Top of Sea ice March 24 sunsets

                                                  Zenith   Azimuth

                                      2004      92.09    284.97

                                       2008     91.63    283.24

                                      2012      91.84     284.09  (notice the Azimuth variations)

Same day microdot examples, leap years sunset comparisons were chosen to eliminate standard calendar astronomical sidereal disparities. It is rare to get same day sunsets year to year, even in the Arctic, which is dry but often cloudy. 

   Cape Sheringham and Cape Martyr hills consist of mainly limestone and are often wind swept, partially covered with snow during winter,  less so during spring.  

Top of sea ice horizon heights can vary enormously, observed sunrises or sunsets can be seen with sun disk lower than 5 degrees (1) below the horizon along with huge Azimuth displacements, sometimes many degrees Azimuth.  

Egypt’s desert has very similar top of land inversions in the morning as per Upper air records, since warmer desert air is less dense, the refraction height boosts are roughly half as found in the High Arctic.   

Of interest, are micro sun flashes, which are partial sun rise dots, some as narrow as 1 to 2 arc seconds in width, observable just above extreme top of the sun’s middle upper limb. The clear pollution free air of antiquity sun was unobservable without specialized filters even at end of dawn or beginning of dusk, by the known rudimentary observation means, impossible.  To demarcate a sun position on a precise horizon spot, microdots from limestone or otherwise rough hilltops were necessary. Seen through pollution free air bright stars or planets were easier to observe especially above hills with less atmospheric thickness, resulting in a reduction in scattering of light enhancing their brightness. 

 

     Ancient horizon observers with Merkhet lines precisely mapped Sirius small horizon drifts, with great skill done likewise with sun microdots, particularly visible on limestone hill scape, especially if the top plateau’s are jagged by different small peaks or with large rock aggregates.    An observer can demarcate by memory a microdot appearing next to a dip or small rise of the higher horizon.  In a matter of a few years, a priesthood studying both Sirius and Eastern microdot sunrises can map positions to be integrated with any given temple or pyramid plan. 

 Because of these microdot flashes, near perfect horizon sun position mapping was achievable, like with bright stars, recordable.   Proficient Ancient Egyptians spotters could have used poles or rock cairns likewise, either on distant or near by hills, to set surveying markers

Akhet Khufu 

   The name of the Great Pyramid is Khufu Akhet, as documented by Red sea papyrus  recently discovered by Pierre Tallet “diary of Merer”.  This apt name suggests looking at the horizon as the Sphinx does.  Continuing on the juxtaposition of Sirius and sunrise, the Great Pyramid architecturally incorporates their positional geometry very deeply. This can be also backdated precisely because we have 3 dimensional coordinates built in the Great Pyramid Southern shafts. The first shaft, meant to be used as an exact calendar clock, in yearly chronological sequence, is at 45 degrees elevation, built step by step at 45 degrees starting from the King’s chamber.  Gantenbrink Upuaut project measured its floor having an “average” slope, explainable by the brightness of the sun disk at noon.  Building a shaft with a very bright 45 degree sun disk midday as a guide can be froth with mistakes, the sun diameter size and intense brightness might have prompted less care to piece together a perfect smooth shaft floor.   However, this 45 degrees corresponds to a religious and significant agricultural moment, a precise yearly astronomical mark, the first day of Hb Sb, always exactly 49 days before the winter solstice, the beginning of the kings jubilee along with the start of the Nile’s growing season.  Gradually from Khufu’s time onwards, this day was also dedicated to Osiris when its worship gained prominence, it became this Gods resurrection day.  

 The Southern Shaft of the Queen’s chamber, apparently with the smoothest or most precise floor slope, was built, layer by layer, year by year from observing Sirius at Southern transit especially on a unique coronation day,  the last day of Hb Sb or modern day Coptic Khoiak, “the joining of souls”.  During construction of the Great Pyramid,  Sirius at transit with the sun on December 9 kept immediately above the shaft floor as a precise slope guide,   Gantenbrink’s 39.6 degrees, from this work we can date the start of shaft construction to 2371 BCE.  When visible, Sirius transit altitudes varied a little from 39.6 degrees on other days, certainly easing the difficulty in achieving a perfect stone angle.  

    

        Long before, Sirius and the Sun had identical transits at the winter solstice. 

This dates back close to 3400 BCE.  From then, with Earth precession and obliquity changing downwards, Sirius drifted upwards, this change was known by RA priesthood.  From inception of this celebrated, mythical or not, first ascendance, from the ceremony of Pharaoh “0” onwards, Sirius and sun transit elevation equivalence was a sacred date of the year.  The sun shadow matching Sirius elevation at transit is a precise astronomical day, not depending on the imperfect Egyptian 365 day calendar.  Sirius elevation angle was set in stone for Khufu’s first coronation day, likely December 9 2371 BC, if he lived another 30 years after, jubilee ascendance day, the last day of the 30 year jubilee Hb Sb was December 9 2341 BC.  Exceptionally on that sidereal star and sun position day, and for every jubilee Hb Sb coronation day, for all RA pharaohs, the sun rose exactly on the same horizon Azimuth as Sirius, to then both transit at the same location due South at noon for the sun and about midnight for Sirius, all during this one exceptional day.  Sirius and the sun were considered joined on the same plane of existence. 

Additionally, there is no coincidence, the slopes of the Great Pyramid were designed to match same day dawn horizon azimuth position difference between Sirius and the sun on July 11 2371,  astronomical program makes this difference 51.73 degrees, compared to the modern consensus Great Pyramid inclination of 51.84 degrees.  The inspiration of the smooth pyramid was memorialized exactly to match the yearly Sirius heliacal rise with sunrise horizontal positions whence traced on limestone rock, sand or papyrus.   

          From the centre of the planned Great Pyramid prior to construction:

    Flat horizon calculation with astronomical program having refraction included

           Sirius Rise Azimuth July 11 2371 BCE  113 25’ 4”      113.42

            Sunrise Azimuth    July 11 2371 BCE   61 31' 11"      -61.52

                                                                                          difference  51.90    

         

    With estimated horizon obstructions same program

 Sirius rise  4:21:19 July 11 2371 BCE  0  35' 51" el 113 33' 35" Az     113.56

 Sun rise  4:46:15 July 11 2371 BCE  -0  43' 59" el    61  35' 14" Az    -61.59

                                                                                                          difference  51.97                                                                                        

                                   Sirius  horizon 0.4 degrees

                                 Sunrise horizon 0.1 degrees

                While there is no way to reconstruct an atmospheric profile of so long ago, Egypt July morning air would easily bring up Sirius and a microdot at both respective horizons without  an expected  significant deviation from the results above.  . ...............................................................

>_>_>_>_>_>_>_>.........   More to come upon publication....

  [  Oficial Sunrise July 11 2371 BCE  4:45:43   Local time , GMT +2 hours

      Coordinates of Khufu Akhet 29 58' 45" N 31 8' 3"  E                   ]

     The very first reason for smooth sided pyramids was the horizontal tracing of the observations of Sirius rising the first day upon its long 70 days absence, appearing in the Southeast, 25  minutes later with the sun rising to the Northeast.  The slope angle of the Great Pyramid was taken from the horizon, as given by Sopdet and RA,  the very year of  Pharaoh's Khufu first coronation,  his ascent,  should naturally come along with the inauguration of the construction start of the 7th wonder of the Ancient world .  Therefore there are two ways to back date this great monument, to the day, since Sirius position changed upwards quite a lot and the horizontal sacred triangle formed by the heliacal return of Sirius and sunrise changed in time as well.   There was also this fantastic equal positional rise and culminations of these two favorite Egyptian stars, on the very coronation day of Khufu, the celestial and terrestrial day of joining.  

                   ______________________________________________

   So here you have it,   I say hello to you, with smile and hope that the science provided here was inspirational and encourages to become curious in your field of endeavour.  Remember, you become master of your practice, not in a day, may be after 25 years.... However, if you do science `every day, surely some wonders of this Universe will be in sight to explore contemplate and write about ...

Note:  this is part of an active in progress manuscript, not the final peer review article. some corrections not affecting the outcome will certainly happen:  

2026 , WD March 21, (March 29, inclination transcription error corrected + added coordinates),(March 30, 49 days between 45 degree sun culmination and winter solstice not 50) , (April 1, fair arbitror astronomical program with refraction removes r estimations)

2 CTNP vortices instead of 3 meter thick Arctic Ocean sea ice; the new shape of the Polar Vortex

 ~The creation of cold air is due to lack of clouds at night worldwide,  in winter massive "Arctic blasts"can be formed further away from the long Polar night  if dry air is circulated Southwards

~Thinner Arctic Ocean Sea ice changed the morphology and nature  of the Arctic Polar Vortex

Once upon a time,  pre-industrial days,  Arctic Ocean Sea ice was thick:

In those days,  the Cold temperature North Pole was more at the geographic North Pole.

The Weather was stable.  More predictable, easier to plan for.   The Northwest passage took  1 year to cross by ship. 

 These recent summers it takes a modern cruise ship less than 1 week to travel the Northwest passage.  In winter weather dynamics equally changed dramatically.  Anthropogenic Global Warming thinned Arctic Ocean's sea ice forcing the creation of stable CTNP vortices further away from the North Pole, these are the new places where cold systems settles, over land with some glaciers.  The effects are dramatic, warmer winters, throughout the northern hemisphere, laced with sudden extreme but short lived cold "Arctic blasts" are the new world order of winter weather.  This curvier nature of the Polar Vortex creates chaos.   

Example today:

   CMC 700 mb chart February 15 2026.  The coldest place in the world is about the Center of the Arctic Archipelago.  Today there are and were , for a long while, 2 stable CTNP vortices within the Polar Vortex.   This current circulation is a deep freeze air engine generator for especially North Eastern Russia Japan and East of the Canadian rockies.  Night dry air is the father of winter, there is a cold snap in the making now whereas the frigid larger atmosphere will be created further South at night with hardly a warming from the low noon sun shinning on snow covered Earth.  The future holds this dynamic for the foreseeable winter decades to come, it is no surprise when your weather hits extreme cold temperatures, some smaller part time deep freeze weather engines moved further South. WD February 15 , 2026