Wednesday, January 20, 2016

Northerm Hemisphere temperature projection successful yet again.....

~The warm year was not only because of El-Nino  

  Todays NY Times headline: 

2015 Was Hottest Year in Historical Record, Scientists Say

And so it was

2014    95   66  118  105   90   83   74   90   86   96   84  109     91  89     80  104   82   89  2014
2015   114  115  123  102   99  104   88   99  112  124  136  148    113 110    113  108   97  124  2015
Year   Jan  Feb  Mar  Apr  May  Jun  Jul  Aug  Sep  Oct  Nov  Dec    J-D D-N    DJF  MAM  JJA  SON  Year

      According to NASA 2015 Northern Hemisphere January to December average was +0.22 C greater than 2014 during the same period.  A staggering near 20% jump. El-Nino's influence can be read at year end.  The beginning of the year was likely more at the state of warming already in Earth's atmosphere.  The other warmest El-Nino was 1998: 

1998    66  105   71   88   67   74   78   74   62   56   59   79     73  71     75   75   75   59  1998

   ENSO peak to peak temperature maximums are simply not explaining the 0.4 C temperature gain since 1998.   

From EH2r Refraction prediction April 18, 2015: 

"Because of overwhelming refraction heat signals, 2015 will be warmest year in Northern Hemisphere history -  by a significantly larger margin than 2014.  No High Arctic observations over Cornwallis Island gave a consistent sign of cooling, despite being right near center of coldest atmosphere in the world.  This forecast is not at all counting on El-Nino rising again,  which undoubtedly guaranties more heat."

   The writing of 2015 warming was in sun disks well before year end.   However, refraction prognosis methods are not only to be  found with astronomical objects.  2016 is already significantly warmer than 2015 by another way to judge the warmth 
of the planet......  With sea ice.    More on this soon.  WD January 20 , 2016

Saturday, January 2, 2016

In total darkness Mid-winter Record shattering heat surge over the Arctic Ocean

~There were Cyclonic incursions in the past , but there was more sea ice thickness
~Density Weighted Temperatures of the Northern Hemisphere undeniably demonstrate a warmed planet especially since 1998
~There is no sun over the Arctic yet we witness no "IRIS" effect when the planet is at its warmest

First we look back to late 1980 when the multi-year ice was very thick:

 It was a warm Christmas over Siberia in 1980,  much warmer than over the Canadian Arctic.
600 mb temperatures courtesy NOAA are very close to the Density Weighted Temperature (DWT)  of the entire troposphere.  Temperature picture December 26 (left) was not much different compared to December 29 (right), The Polar region in total darkness coldest air morphed a bit but everywhere temperatures of the entire atmosphere was colder than -20 C while in the Canadian Arctic as cold as -40 C almost all the way to the North Pole.  DWT 's clearly show the center of the Polar vortex,  where all Northern Hemisphere circulation driving winds turn counterclockwise around it.

  El-Nino 1998 was strongest,  likely stronger than 2015 to date,  already we see the circulation pattern markedly different same December 26-29 comparison with 1980.  Note the beginning of a Cyclone affecting the DW Temperature profile of the atmosphere about Iceland on December 29.
In 1998 the sea ice started to decline in thickness and extent.  Its a marking year.  Winter was still
strong during the holiday season.  Day to day variations of DWT's were very reasonably predictable and not dramatic.

El-Nino 2015 is similar to 1998,  except for a larger warmer sea temperature anomalies for the North Pacific.   Yet December 26-29 DWT image is staggeringly different,  as well as sea ice thickness and extent:

     The gradual   but rapid decrease in sea ice thickness since 1998 has had a major playing role  decreasing the build up to winter.

            From December 26 to 29 2015,  the entire Arctic atmosphere significantly warmed in total darkness!   An important Low pressure system,  one following many,  easily penetrated the North Pole region which had DWT temperatures usually close to -40 C,  now more like -8 C,  again this is the temperature of the entire atmosphere not just the surface, in the past not changing fast in a matter of days.   In total -no sun - darkness the usual pattern was stable DWT's.    Another marked feature of current 2015-16 season is this darkness warming,  never readily noticeable in the past,  as winter progresses it usually gets colder not warmer!  Now we noticed with ease  warming bursts at least 3 times since November 2015.  The Cold Temperature North Pole (CTNP) and Arctic has warmed significantly since 1998.  This allows Cyclones to penetrate a weakened state of winter which is made in great part in the Arctic,  this affects weather world wide.  But now, this is new,  we witness temperature warming surges causing incredible dynamic changes undoubtedly which will continue to cause tremendously different weather scenarios,  some good for warm temperature lovers,  but will cause many severe stressful events for human infrastructures as much as on all ecosystems.WD January 2, 2015