Wednesday, May 30, 2018

Possible Arctic Ocean Gyre pressure switchover date modeled, but questions remain

~ECMWF  projects a Low over the Arctic Ocean gyre area

~  Latest sun data contradicts some of its forecast

  We start with Greenland Melt extent being very quiet:

If there is a great cold atmosphere area to the West of Greenland,  it would certainly affect its melt rate.  It is so.

   The latest sun data seems to indicate a stubborn cold zone at least 140 km wide in diameter,  this because of limitations of a high sun , 20 degrees in elevation,  which refraction method helps measure,  covering a smaller atmospheric transect.  Not long ago it was 400 km wide.... 
At any rate,  the CAA upper atmosphere is very cold,  perhaps more so than reported to ECMWF:

   The sudden ECMWF drop in pressure height over the Canadian Arctic Archipelago by June 9 is the only question over this forecast,  come so would result in a  surprise large displacement of the coldest  zone in the Northern Hemisphere.    Note the projected Cyclone over the Arctic Ocean gyre area,  this would be the first time in more than a month of such an image.  

   A switchover from steady High to Low was much forecasted in late April:

  Not quite like this ECMWF effort,  we await June 9 and report back.....  
WD May 30, 2018

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