Sunday, May 6, 2018


~Some circulation models may not have a correct prognosis of the current location and extent of the great CTNP 'vortice' of 2018

  ~  Proof checking the GFS,  not quite getting High Arctic circulation  right;

Central CAA ice crystals in May?  Very good ice crystal display including Parry Arc,  in the bottom foreground ice fog,  with a form of organic smog,  not common within the last 10 years or so.  Sure signals usually associated with a  deeply cold Upper Atmosphere. 
GFS 850 mb Geopotential height and vorticity April 30 onwards.  brings a Cyclone right over the Arctic Ocean Gyre area,  not possible if there is a  major cold temperature "vortice"  hovering over the Canadian Arctic Archipelago (CAA),  the  Low pressures should head Southwards instead. 

    And so they did:

CMC actual surface maps following the projection above, As we can see the GFS fizzled in precision,  highly likely because closest thing to AI or the supercomputer creating its circulation models,  does not consider the "vortice" hovering about the CAA as  a significant cold area.  Notice the Lows following the outline of the coldest one rather than going towards the Pacific Ocean.   Which did not make any sense.  Confirming so we look at latest GFS:

   The GFS seems to be more precise within about 3 days in the CAA region of Arctic,  I am sure it is more potent elsewhere with more numerous upper air stations,  but no Lows hovering towards the Arctic Ocean Gyre yet...    Note to mr AI ,  there will be a switchover from High pressure over the Gyre area to Low pressure,  but Highs are still colder than Lows,  wait a bit or review at :

    In case some weather expert will note that 850 mb GFS is not quite at surface, we look at latest 850 mb analysis which reflects CMC's surface prognosis quite well:

                                          CMC may 6 2018 850 mb chart.   wd May 6 2018

No comments:

Post a Comment