Tuesday, July 12, 2016

Illusions 2016 melt season: The bigger Arctic Gyre appears steady despite winds trying to stop it

~ Fram Strait still has steady incoming ice as well.

   There is a lot of talk about how dominant Arctic Ocean winds,  in some large part opposite to clockwise Arctic Ocean  Gyre, "was not favourable" for compaction,   gave a "lackluster performance" in June and therefore the melt season is basically "dull".... and especially melt ponds are not numerous.  NASA ever so potent and a hugely positive force for correct science,  projects
a large sea ice extent to remain Mid-September.  But will that happen?
JAXA captured intense activities,  despite apparently a "slow June",  if you look very carefully, there was a larger Gyre North of Alaska somehow turning ice clockwise,  with a classic motion compaction, opening water more and furthering the melting process.  Another  panhandle  of slower melting ice is already in place,  about Wardle Island,  the now often appearing Laptev "bite"  precedes a huge broken up ice field further North.  Ice is receding on every front.   Except Fram Strait which has a net output of sea ice.

    From here ,  we clearly observe that the Cyclones did not impede a normal summer year melt as much as imagined.   Except for the famous melt ponds:

"Caveat"  model estimation of melt ponds,  as found on Neven's best sea ice site in the world,  truly bizarre,  especially in the Alaska sector of the Pole,  we have seen the ponds from space:

       The greenish appearance of sea ice mid June,  classic melt ponds colour, this is observed on the surface,  a light green ice top world.

  Beaufort sea had record heat temperatures  reported.   But here we find again a hint,  the models calculate surface temperatures too cold.  It turns out that I have found North of Alaska model surface air calculation  too cold, a few weeks ago,  I made an example of it in June...   The model output was in violation of above sea ice refraction prime rule:  surface air can't be colder than top of sea ice,   especially applicable  in summer!  When ice is a heat sink.

    Having been studying apparent illusions for years,  it seems obvious that we are in for a greatest melt,  despite smoke and mirrors clouds/fog and ice.  Its not that natural illusions are set to deceive,  rather,  belief in a conclusion far away from now,  does that quite well.  WD June 12, 2016  (few seconds before midnight)..


  1. Hi, Wayne! I find it funny how Traditionalists seem to think this year won't make it to the Top 3 lowest years at autumn minimum (JAXA extent), which would mean that #3 lowest year 2015 would be lower than 2016. I don't see that happening from the Year-to-Date Average plot.

    1. I agree Torstein, they changed their minds real quick, perhaps because other melt seasons always have made surprises. However, I respect those who stick by the forecast no matter what seems to be obvious, good luck to them! or we shall say
      i tåken, into the fog they go...

  2. Wayne, those melt pond fraction maps, when they're showing white, it doesn't mean that there are no melt ponds there. It means there aren't more or less melt ponds than the 10-year average.

    But even then, Dr Schröder told me last year to add the caveat that these maps do not necessarily reflect actual melt pond distribution. And that's what I have been doing since then.

    1. But white dominates the melt sector most active during summer, it doesn't mean greatest melts occur with average water ponds does it? Like the Sumo :)