North Atlantic hyper melting ; when sea ice is a pack it can easily go into warm waters

~North Atlantic slush front

~Day fast changing Goodbye Waves

   EOSDIS July 23-24 2020 North Atlantic by Franz Josef Islands,  total chaos reigns,  as the loosened  ice pack heads towards warmed surface waters,  massive melting ensues.    Note the rapid disappearance of goodbye wave geometry in 24 hours,  in particular the ice about vertical striations middle of July 23 capture,  the G.W. morph in shape very rapidly,  an indication of hyper speed melting.  WD July 24 2020

LATE season melting examples

~With clouds rarely absent ,  a  glimpse of pre-minima very late melting

   Extraordinary "Goodbye Waves" action,  EOSDIS September 9 and 13,  notice they differ in 4 days,  indicating different ice melting,  because a goodbye wave is a final wave of an individually distinct ice mass.  This loop confirms current active melting when the minima should have been declared, the picture with less sea ice is on the 13th.   Sea ice agglomeration density of thousands of little ice islands significantly reduced as well.

  Wrangle Island  has +9 C surface water near by,  seen top left,  during same 9-13 loop ,   all these remaining micro packs are doomed.    Notice internal melting mid extreme right. 

    We are not even dealing with compaction,  which if allowed,  would rapidly reduce sea ice extent
even more dramatically,  a considerable cyclone would do so.  WD September 13, 2018

Atlantic front race to 85 North vs Pacific waters massacre

~Central Arctic Basin 2018 is #1 is lowest extent

~ Beaufort sea and CAA make up  400 K difference with 2012, while 2018 has 464, 000 km2 more sea ice than 12

~ Along with other peripheral seas, which will have near 0 extent come mid September,  2018 is technically #1 at the moment.  

   CMC reporting whopping +9 C sea surface temperatures in the Bering sea can only mean one thing:

  We note super fast melting conditions North of Bering sea,  with ripe conditions enhanced by a High pressure Gyre favouring compaction and flow of  extreme warm waters finishing off straggling sea ice pans.  On the Atlantic Front,  we see Fram Strait loosing sea ice rapidly due to no flow conditions, but also a race towards a 85N on the entire Atlantic sea ice shore line.  The NE passage is about to open first, equally as expected in April,  the NW passage is clogged with sea ice but should open partially much later. 

     What about the black spots appearing in waves on the JAXA animation above?  They are open water zones opening closing rapidly as captured 82 N 176 W:

   The JAXA dark spots indicate rapid movement of sea ice sometimes leaving open water gaps which may fill with rubble and slush,  is part of the same process detected North of Alaska about a month ago.  Rapid motion of sea ice may be interpreted as steady sea ice albedo until the slush turns to goodbye waves,  when the entire pack collapses rapidly as occurring North of Alaska at present.  WD July 30 2018

Snow or Grey ice or a mix of both? + Rapid displacements at minima.

  September 21  location                             VVVVVVV

 I calculate 30.6 nautical miles displacement in 5 days,  note ^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^  big pan on September 16 just above (86.57N 109.29E).   It travelled on average more than 6 nautical miles a day,  very rapid rate AGAINST the Transpolar Stream Current.  It means that there is a lot of grey ice and floating snow between the broken packs .   If grey areas was new sea ice they would completely cover the gaps,    But if it is floating snow or grey ice the leeward side would be full while the windward (towards the bottom of this page) open,  the open water locations change so it is likely floating snow which changes in texture with time and exposure.   Sea ice would set easier on the windward because pack ice offers no waves and a wind shade facilitating freeze-up more.

83 N 112W smack in the middle of densest but de-coiled pack ice, with temperatures between -10 to -17 C ,  still has open water (by movement) with a daily displacement of 3 nautical miles a day, a very rapid rate for dense pack indeed.  But with new sea ice,  recognized by drifting snow on top of it.  

Meanwhile near Franz Josef lands:

      The flow is equally rapid seen by open leads amongst loose pummeled pack.  The Goodbye Waves are less expansive than before,  but there are many of them.  WD September 22, 2016

Fram Strait sea ice melting Van Gogh style

~Long without action Fram strait appears to melt incoming sea ice rapidly
direct contact with +2 C water ,  cooled a bit from a summer of continuous warming.

Sea water right into the melt zone by any standards extremely warm,  therefore giving images like this: 

We have a look at apparently rapid melting,  at least for this time of the year,  with equally fast Southwards flowing sea ice as seen October 4 ,  the goodbye waves here are definitely artistic and
different than slow melting type as reported with previous article.  Warm surface sea water +2 C awaits any arrivals.  wd October 9, 2018

Differing resolutions confusions

~There is a whole lot less ice than 15% extent rule 16 KM grid suggests
~We explore differing resolutions

   Despite latest reports suggesting we are at minima,  not so, at minima again,  nope,  largely because of wind system changes, despite there is still a great deal of melting going on in the Pacific side of the Pole.  However a significant Arctic Ocean air temperature dipole exists, on the other side of North Pole temperatures are colder,  the ice on Atlantic side is largely more densely compacted than the Pacific quadrant,  not so much compared to previous Septembers.

NASA EOSDIS below transect looks at the visually cloud free area within the pink area on September 10 JAXA above.  

   NASA EOSDIS September 11.   Observe significantly huge  "Goodbye Waves"  sea ice in final melting stages, we can confirm without much of a doubt that16 km grid 15% extent rule  calls all of the areas seen here covered with 100% sea ice.  However the JAXA colored map above gives a better representation at 6.25 km per grid and describes reality better than 10 km resolution  which is likely the daily JAXA numerical value:

       The 10 km grid random scan same area reveals no 14% sea ice coverage,  so it is all read as 100%. Even if water covers a grid area by 80%......  WD September 11, 2018

Astounding sea ice velocities suggest free flowing sea ice never consolidated

   NASA EOSDIS  recent Worldview,  already having Goodbye Waves Upper Right,  signifying heavy melting from easily broken apart sea ice,  similar to what we usually see in July or August.  This kind of movement  North of Novaya Zemlya makes coming data days confusing,  as it was ever since the great dispersion of the strongest densest Canadian Pack last September.  We have had this event of a miss-judged magnitude,  the lack of a more stable sea ice pack has triggered more fluid movements always giving open water at some point anywhere over the Arctic Ocean,  this helped warm Arctic Ocean air and "invite"  more Cyclones to linger longer, making the warmest Arctic Ocean in recorded history.   These images reflect this warming.  WD April 8,2017

Back to water..... That just melted "goodbye" wave look

North of Beaufort sea has similar features to Fram Strait especially now.  Ice almost completely melted gives waves, similar to cirrus clouds announcing an approaching front:

     At extremes of the great Fram Strait melting zone lies the last remnants of sea ice,  whose physical nature really becomes elastic, from solid to slush/rubber to water.  It is a sight everywhere sea ice melts.  In this frame, present Cirrus clouds may be confused with melting sea ice.


    Even North of Beaufort Sea:

     Its melting North of Beaufort very fast.  But just before disappearing,  sea ice takes the shape of waves not so dictated by being very rigid,  these waves are water in transition from appearing solid white to dark liquid.  Each melt region has different melt transition characteristics.  Which is of course as individualistic of the geophysical features about.WDJuly31, 2016

N.P. to Ostrov Komsomolets once ice bridge in taters, dispersing greatly as well as melting

   It was the strongest ice bridge in summer 2016, was from the Pole to Russia,  principally because there was a thinner snow layer which created the thickest ice possible given the warm winter just past.   Now its moving apart rapidly,  look at the central open water ridge moving fast Eastwards. Goodbye Waves a plenty can also be seen on the Leeward side on Sept 7 (left shore).   The Ostrov  Komsomolets ice bridge was huge apparently invincible:

   And now dispersing with the winds,  becoming larger in the process and distorting the melt view.  WD Sep7,2016

North Pole compression & pond lakes, Atlantic Front open water intrusion

~The current record pace sea ice melting has a significant wind component. 

NASA Eosdis recent July 13-16 North Pole look was granted by lesser cloud cover.  What was observed is sea ice moving towards North of Alaska,  along with huge top of sea ice lake ponds.

Compressed sea ice by the persistent wind driven flow.  Any change of winds would trigger decompression, wide open features are just about to start.

Just Northeast of Spitzbergen Island, North Atlantic front action continues unabated, at remarkable speeds (July 7 to 16).   With a mixture of sea ice movement and rapid melting exemplified by "Goodbye Waves" remnants of about to completely vanish pack ice swiftly thawed by very warm sea surface temperatures.  Again a different wind venue would trigger even more melting because of the just created and warming sea water.   WD July 16 , 2020

Some effects of open water Transpolar Stream Current

It is not so obvious,  there is the Atlantic front,  where there is far less sea ice momentum pushing slowly to the North Atlantic:

  August 26 to September 4  East of Spitsbergen.    Appearing steady or moving North with a lot of melting.

  Fram Strait substantial extent gains with likely the most solid dense ice left unencumbered by TPS sea ice ,  hence the stretching out sea ice peninsula not with numerous Goodbye Waves,  but heading certainly to melt at a much slower rate than Atlantic Front sea ice.WD Sept5,2016

Great movement Eastward by latest GAC and predecessors

   A small opening displaying Wrangel island ice bridge has been shrinking and compressing,  even
Goodbye Waves are interestingly bunched up against the ice edge,  either by recent past cyclones and in particular the latest one currently shaping up the icescape further.WDAug15,2016

Slow cloud induced last month melting surprise

 ~ The speediest melt rate since 2012 and 16 slowed by weather dynamics is not quite finished surprising yet

~The current latest melting appears innocuous but is huge

August 13-17 North Spitzbergen   50 Km Resolution:

   Impressive Northwards massive melting despite wind flowing towards the South (roughly towards the right).

   Goodbye Waves Russian side morphing rapidly on Center Russian side of the Pole.  Somewhere about 10 km square melting.

WD August 17 2020

KARA sea ice appears to have significant melting and extensive water ponds

   Kara sea next to  Russia shore has lost a lot of sea ice,  with remaining having greenish colours indicating melt ponds..  Note the 'goodbye waves' in the dark sea,  precursor sea ice just about to completely melt and merge with sea water.

Comparison with 2010-2017 makes 2018 most favorable about melting rates exceeding 2012,  the wider open dark sea water zone of 18 rivals 2010,  but is most significant causing its remaining sea ice very vulnerable.  WD June 12, 2018

Atlantic Front Franz Josef Lands melt/retreat Northwards, dispersion of broken apart sea ice will eventually thin further and give dramatic extent drop

  We see thinning of sea ice loose packs almost everywhere in the Arctic Ocean,  here North of Franz Josef Land Russia, is a retreat of sea ice Northwards.  This flow has no solid pack to recoil on and therefore is breaking apart.   Note Goodbye Waves to the South of the Front indicate great melting.  The new open water areas, numerous as they may be,  are highly likely not recorded by extent numbers 15% per grid regulation.

   Superimposed JAXA map September 5 (white black) September 7 (in colour).  The colour gains,  on the Leeward side (winds counterclockwise) of sea ice shores outnumber the black and white september 5 map by a far greater extent,  black being mixed with colour on the largely steady compacted windward side.  This masks the real melt numbers further.  Eventually,  further dispersion will show dramatic melt results. WD September 8,2016

Open water towards 85 North at October's gate

    The Atlantic front East of Spitsbergen is also advancing Northwards.  It is probably the slowest overall refreeze since 2012.  There is likely some freezing  but also a great daily variance in extent due to floating snow and possibly some melting,  needing to be identified in specific areas.  But here ,  the Eat Siberian bite seems unstopped in its ever slow advance,  JAXA 15 to 29 September 2018 ,  the 15th being the messiest at the top left corner.

September 26 to October 1, amazing NASA captured  melting at edge of Equinox North Pole darkness on what is the continuing advance of water towards the North from the East Siberian Sea quadrant,  with strong evidence of melting:

These Goodbye Waves,  the last phase of sea ice to water,  changed in structure day by day  September 29-30 and October 1,  it was also certainly a mix of fusion physics requiring presence of a ship confirming and observing this directly.

WD September 30, October 1  2018

Trans Polar Stream, first time so wet in history, is simply huge, it may cause a fluid mix accelerating flushing to the warm North Atlantic.

   A  gap in clouds drifted long enough to reveal a huge area of sea water mixed with loose sea ice just South of the North Pole (about 100 nautical miles),  NOAA HRPT.  Of interest is the zone between this opening and Fram Strait,  which has always been a fluid area of sea ice, usually slowed by traffic jams of ice coming from multiple directions.  However, even in winter, this is an area rife with movement.   It may not be strange that it looks more dense with sea ice,  it all bunches up there,  but it is not a static zone especially now:

   Fram Strait is rapidly bulging Southwards with sea ice,  this means that the Open Trans Polar Stream may reach the Strait,  with 0 to +7 C sea surface temperatures.  Notice Goodbye waves between Greenland and Spitsbergen Isles,  they expanded from August 23 to 25 as well,  a sure indication of rapid melting along with the arrival of new sea ice.  If the Trans Polar Stream open zone reaches Fram Strait,  it would mean a much more fluid flow of sea ice to the North Atlantic.

   Note the zone of open water within the Trans Polar Stream appears far more ominous on Satellite pictures,  this is due to AMSR2 15% minimum sea ice per grid rule.   However, any increase in fluidity North of Greenland or Spitsbergen would accelerate the flushing of the real last remnant of dense sea ice North of Greenland as the mixing mashed up zone of subduction would have no pressure from the Trans Polar Stream furnishing usually thick ridged sea ice,  this acceleration may have already started.. wd August 25, 2016