"Summer early winter 2014 Refraction and by other means Projection" 2015 review
~WHAT is the SCORE?
~Distinct Upper air pattern will shape late spring and summer weather for much of the Northern Hemisphere.
~El-Nino come or come later may not matter.
~Tornado season looks normal or better. Typhoons Galore not Hurricanes
"What is the score? From 390 refraction observation comparisons with previous seasons 2002-2013:
#1 2005 13.64%
#2 2014-2013-2010 12.73%
#3 2011 11.82%
#4 2012-2009 10.91%
#5 2006 10% all time maximas
of 110 decimal elevation degree levels, 2005 had the most expanded sun disk levels followed closely by 2014-2013 and 2010. The warmest sun disk expansions in Arctic recent history (from 2002 to 2014) all occurred during the last 5 years at 61%, compared to the previous 8 years. If the whole Northern Hemisphere temperature remained average from year to year the yearly mean would be about 7.7%. "
"NH Temperature Projection for 2014: 2nd warmest year in history without El-Nino, #1 warmest with a new El-Nino mid-summer onwards."
NASA Giss Northern Hemisphere 2014 average temperature was #1. Sundisk differential refraction method scores another win, batting nearly 1000 in baseball terms over several years of such predictions.
"Where will be this Summer's Cold Temperature North Pole?
"The C.T.N.P. zone is actually the biggest single contributor of weather throughout the Northern Hemisphere, it is the heart of the Polar Vortex. There is CTSP in the Southern Hemishere which does likewise. As in March 2014 the CTNP was hanging a lot about mid central Quebec, and gave all kinds of "normal winter of old" weather. For the folks in NW Europe a summer CTNP at about Spitsbergen gives buckets of rain especially over the British Isles. But it seems likely the CTNP to hang about Northern Ellesmere and Greenland, because greater sea ice thickness over Arctic Ocean Basin has been and will continue to help spawn High Pressure systems there. CTNP over Northern Ellesmere should mainly position the jet stream to the Northwards between Iceland and Ireland. Although it looks like the rain will return to UK like the summer of 2012, perhaps less than but certainly plenty grey and wet. For the shivering Northeastern Americans, a nice very hot summer awaits, drier after a wet cool spring. But it is actually the position of the CTNP which will decide where the jet stream will meander. An Arctic Dipole will melt the sea ice greater than 2012, the North Pole will see open water, again like in 2013 when the North Pole was actually a zone of very loose pack ice, but this time the sea ice will compress or compact, leaving a wide open water view of a Pole area not exposed to open water for millennia."
"But it seems likely the CTNP to hang about Northern Ellesmere and Greenland, because greater sea ice thickness over Arctic Ocean Basin has been and will continue to help spawn High Pressure systems there. "
CTNP was over Northern Ellesmere and Greenland but also on the other side of 0 meridian over Franz Joseph Islands. Explaining the polar circulation of the entire summer. The systems rotated slower than 2013, giving a chance for High pressures to build up over the Arctic Gyre area.
2013 had a very strong Cold temperature North Pole, this gave a continuous stream of Cyclones mainly from the North Atlantic. Summer 2013 could not
have had a great melt because of the cloud coverage combined with anti Arctic Ocean Gyre circulation. Or Gyre shearing/stalling.
2007 CTNP's were even weaker than 2014, this allowed a great calm over
the Gyre area. A definite pro-gyre circulation, making high pressure systems proficient given the lack of moisture input to create clouds over the entire 90 E and W quadrant towards the Pacific Arctic .
The Ultimate melt scenario 2012, had the weakest circulation possible.
A single weak CTNP meant very little moisture input from the Atlantic, lowering Polar cloud coverage and Cyclonic circulation, which meant Ireland and UK water deluge . Despite a modest El-Nino not in time to seed clouds enough
on time to slow the onslaught.
"An Arctic Dipole will melt the sea ice greater than 2012, the North Pole will see open water, again like in 2013 when the North Pole was actually a zone of very loose pack ice, but this time the sea ice will compress or compact, leaving a wide open water view of a Pole area not exposed to open water for millennia."
No success with the North Pole once again, the only recurring prediction problem I really have was covered with ice. But the said compression did occur very near the Pole:
Cryosphere Today 2013 extra cloud anti-gyre circulation minima had loose packed sea ice with compression coming late in the melt season. 2014 was somewhat similar but had far greater compaction and a greater presence of Gyre turning Anticyclones. The result was a compressed core of pack ice with loose
peripheral pack much more pushed towards the North Atlantic. There was a stronger dipole. The matter of a wide open North Pole is a matter of probability
likely soon to happen. Summer 2014 CTNP's were modest but strong enough to have cooled the start of the melting season by clouds from the Atlantic. The core
pack at minima 2014 (deep purple above right) is likely the 2015 minima look.
"Et Tu ENSO?
Last year saw the most violent typhoon in history, Haiyan. Last year also had no El-Nino as well as no Hurricane season to speak of, but there was a split personality syndrome; El-Nino to the North , La-Nina South of equator, this continues today:"
NOAA/NESDIS April 17 2014 ENSO suffers again a split personality similar to last year:
"Except there is a difference, the Polar Vortex has shown a dissimilar circulation pattern to last year, so expect a different result. The PDO especially from the North Pacific warming is 1.6 points higher. ENSO variations triggers weather but weather patterns affect ENSO moods."
"April 19, 2014 Polar Tropopause clouds, higher than Cirrus some appear white some dark, these are reflections from horizontally Polarized light, they are a wild mix of chemical clouds, ice crystals and cloud condensation nuclei. If they exist higher in the sky during twilight the more likely El_Nino is happening. Right now, at about 7 degrees above the horizon they exist more from a very warm North Pacific and Atlantic, during an El-Nino they can cover the horizon sky for more than 40 degrees elevation.
Already in the cards, more typhoons, less hurricanes than normal. If ENSO turns to be a completely formed El-Nino, the coming winter will be much warmer grey and wetter (yes lots of rain and snow), if the spilt personality continues (unlikely), a winter much like the one just past will revisit but with different CTNP persistent position,. WDApril 20-21, 2014"
A mild El-Nino ensued over this winter just past, CCN, PSC or PTC clouds (in photo right above) were not seen alike this spring (2015) in the wake of a small La-Nina Blitz in he Southern Pacific Equator. Which is just recently turning back towards El-Nino. There is a lag in seeding clouds appearance and or disappearance of a month or so. ENSO "split personality" at the equator languished at 2014 end of year. Beginning of 2015 was excessively cloudy in the Arctic. Only changing at the same time when El-Nino of 2014-15 weakened.
About Tornadoes Hurricanes and Typhoons:
This means that the Coldest atmospheric zone is largely surface based, not influenced by a much colder Stratosphere. This implies a weaker North American tornado season, in the one part because the ground air is colder, in the other the much required colder stratosphere is absent:
Tornado statistics for 2014; 827, 2013; 908, 2012; 939 and 2011 1691. By "weaker" I meant with previous year. Tornado science is well advanced, I propose
here a method to enhance the number of tornadoes forecast for the coming season. Of which 2 main extra parameters from the Arctic should be closely watched, namely temperature of the stratosphere along with the strength of the Polar stratospheric vortex, both are important because they contribute to dT/dZ the lapse rate stability-or not- of the upper atmosphere. The more a colder Arctic Upper atmosphere the worse the tornado season:
2011 stratosphere was indeed very cold which came along with a very strong Polar Vortex, was not the case in 2013 and 2014, this set a favorable fewer in numbers tornado season . This is the third yearly tornado projection which panned out nicely.
"Already in the cards, more typhoons, less hurricanes than normal. If ENSO turns to be a completely formed El-Nino, the coming winter will be much warmer grey and wetter (yes lots of rain and snow), if the spilt personality continues (unlikely), a winter much like the one just past will revisit but with different CTNP persistent
position,. WDApril 20-21, 2014."
In 2014, hurricanes were less numerous, if not scarce (6) , while typhoons numerous strong and outright scary, by typhoons I meant the entire Pacific (including what is called hurricanes). WD April 5,2015
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