~Arctic Ocean heat influence dominated the entire mid winter onwards
~General outlook again mired by the great North Pacific warm temperature blob which masks the ENSO signal.
~But the imprint of Arctic CTNP's will have huge impact
We start with the last NOAA daily analysis, effectively sadly ending March 17,
The weighted temperature of the entire atmosphere happens closely at 600 mb level. Of which we clearly see the impact of much thinner sea ice on late fall early winter Arctic Ocean area.
This continued to form a mega Cold Temperature North Pole, CTNP, causing winter to split in two separate Polar vortices, the big one being on top of the Canadian Arctic Archipelago. The impact of such prolonged imprint is obvious. It lasts well after winter is gone. Effectively controlling the weather general circulation for the entire coming summer fall
MAY 2026
The dominance of the CTNP imprints bring late Spring cooler but drier for most of North America. The Arctic Ocean pressure switchover will come late
. JUNE JULY 2026
The marked difference with preceding summers is the Arctic Ocean Pressure systems change switching late at the detriment of Arctic Ocean basin sea ice or the benefit, if you like, of a cooler beginning of summer.but drier midwest continent, but much wetter South Eastern US. Less stagnancy than again last few summers, more fluid movement except for Southwest US.
August September 2026
Winter past strong cold surface imprint will devastate the Arctic Basin sea ice (what is left in white), much similar to 2007, when the presence of a High pressure hovering over the Arctic gyre melted the thickest sea ice very rapidly. Most areas sea surface temperatures are also much warmer further northwards in latitude, assuring the melting to be even faster . The only good effect of this imprint is the less than stagnant general circulation at peak of summer. Making hurricanes not last long in one spot causes less damage. The High tropopause measured throughout winter usually signals less tornadoes, as compared to 2011, remains to be seen if this luckily happens. Same goes for near ocean shore forest fires, less than usual expected, especially with the extra impact of El-Nino helps with more rainfall. The big question is what happens the North Pacific Great warm temperature blob, El-Nino extra moisture means more clouds, will this massive blob cool down? Since its formation it was the only sea ice saviour, the extra cloud cover it generated in the Arctic increased rainfall, but stopped the sun from doing prolonged damage, helped maintain a long lasting Low Pressure over the Arctic gyre, slowing down the dumping of sea ice towards the North Atlantic. This season the Canadian Arctic archipelago will face dry hot air from Siberia instead.
OTHER facts
First melt occurred late, April 1. First melt of sea ice is an optical feature measured when the sea ice horizon matches the astronomical horizon, it implies bottom sea ice melting in progress, which significantly slows down sea ice accretion. As first melt optical height is observed to last longer during the day, sea ice thickness growth becomes smaller and smaller, eventually stops leading up to net over all melting. This measurement gives insight into the shipping season. East Siberian passage will open first, Canadian Northwest passage later, only to receive again a whole lot of broken unconsolidated pack ice from the Arctic Ocean, the NW passage easy navigation should occur only late in the season.
University of Bremen, although Sea Arctic sea ice seems more bountiful same time of the year compared to baseline 2016, the result at the end of the melt season should be less sea ice than 2012,
for three reasons, over all sea ice is thinner, sea surface temperatures significantly warmer and general circulation favouring hot summer Siberian air to pummel the basin with more sunlight.
What's the score? Differential refraction readings, more than 500 of them, did not shed much of a surprise, vertical sun disk diameters were mostly shrunken, to the mid range of the 2002-2026 database. Only 4% of 120 decimal levels were above average. There was a significant surprise anyways, the usual late in season sun disk measurements were always shrunken more than the earlier ones. Why? Despite the atmosphere warming at Cornwallis Island 75 N Latitude, the atmosphere was always much colder further North. This year the measurements taken from the Northwest were mostly more expanded, warmer! Very unusual, likely the first time this happens, implying a much warmer top of Arctic Ocean sea ice atmosphere. The differential sun disk over all data seems to affirm a stepping oscillation feature that is becoming apparent in line with sea ice thickness....... NOT FINISHED......
WD May 3....
