Slow cloud induced last month melting surprise

 ~ The speediest melt rate since 2012 and 16 slowed by weather dynamics is not quite finished surprising yet

~The current latest melting appears innocuous but is huge

August 13-17 North Spitzbergen   50 Km Resolution:

   Impressive Northwards massive melting despite wind flowing towards the South (roughly towards the right).

   Goodbye Waves Russian side morphing rapidly on Center Russian side of the Pole.  Somewhere about 10 km square melting.

WD August 17 2020

North Atlantic hyper melting ; when sea ice is a pack it can easily go into warm waters

~North Atlantic slush front

~Day fast changing Goodbye Waves

   EOSDIS July 23-24 2020 North Atlantic by Franz Josef Islands,  total chaos reigns,  as the loosened  ice pack heads towards warmed surface waters,  massive melting ensues.    Note the rapid disappearance of goodbye wave geometry in 24 hours,  in particular the ice about vertical striations middle of July 23 capture,  the G.W. morph in shape very rapidly,  an indication of hyper speed melting.  WD July 24 2020

Laptev Sea melt madness, Goodbye Waves have no time to be artistic

~ Most dramatic record pace melting on Russian side of Pole

~Visual record shows particular "Goodbye Waves"

NASA EOSDIS July 12 to 17,  Laptev sea ice retreats at stunning speeds,  mostly by melting, as exemplified by Goodbye Waves,  not having a chance to twirl and be creatively beautiful.    Never noticed this before on such a wide scale.

East Siberian sea during the same time period,  thawing is just as frenetic,  the G. Waves  are likely from much thicker sea ice pans,  so the twisting around or final act of sea ice can be seen.   We can indirectly surmise what kind of ice it was by the last moments of its existence or life,  a pan of sea ice includes a world of beings all dependent of it.  WD July 17, 2020

North Pole compression & pond lakes, Atlantic Front open water intrusion

~The current record pace sea ice melting has a significant wind component. 

NASA Eosdis recent July 13-16 North Pole look was granted by lesser cloud cover.  What was observed is sea ice moving towards North of Alaska,  along with huge top of sea ice lake ponds.

Compressed sea ice by the persistent wind driven flow.  Any change of winds would trigger decompression, wide open features are just about to start.

Just Northeast of Spitzbergen Island, North Atlantic front action continues unabated, at remarkable speeds (July 7 to 16).   With a mixture of sea ice movement and rapid melting exemplified by "Goodbye Waves" remnants of about to completely vanish pack ice swiftly thawed by very warm sea surface temperatures.  Again a different wind venue would trigger even more melting because of the just created and warming sea water.   WD July 16 , 2020

Atlantic front; very rapid melting

~A look at some record pace melting. 

   EOSDIS July 11-12   2020 Just North of Spitzbergen,  look and place mouse pointer on the "Goodbye Wave Peninsula"  lower centre right of animation,  the basic nature of Goodbye Waves stages of melting demonstrate huge pans of sea ice, 1 km wide vanishing in a day.  The winds on July 12 were light in the photo sector.  The sea current is somewhat rapid,  approximately 1 km and hour towards the NW.  A weak cloud cover is also key in more rapid thawing at this time of summer.   The same speedy liquifying can't be repeated,  slowed and  hampered by denser pack ice (colder sea surface ) and denser clouds near Franz Jozef Islands.  WD July 12, 2020

Jupiter has Arctic sea ice "Goodbye Waves" , the red version

~Geophysics can be filled with symmetrical effects,  some having same or wildly differing causes
~Arctic Goodbye waves,  seen here: http://eh2r.blogspot.com/2016/09/wrangel-bridge-waves-away-goodbye.html  , are a terribly photogenic,  even artistic expressions from sea ice melting away. 
~But Jupiter is no Earth.  Or is there solids on top of its dense gaseous atmosphere?

    Thanks "New Horizons"  view here. Something on Jupiter looks familiar?  EH2r has dealt with this before:

  Although Jupiter is much more colourful,  the look is pretty much the same.  Here we can offer what is happening on top of Jupiter's dense (almost liquid?)  atmosphere.  "Goodbye Waves"  were once majestic sea ice just about vanished by melting,  leaving a trail of salts, biomass and fresh water not readily mixing with Arctic sea water,  but carried by sea currents giving the stylish twists and turns only found where there is an interface exposing the physics of two differing layers not readily intermixing.  2020 sea ice melt season will be great and perhaps will offer other planetary looks,  spectacular but too much of it is pretty bad from always pretty planet Earth.  WD June 15 2020

Fram Strait sea ice melting Van Gogh style

~Long without action Fram strait appears to melt incoming sea ice rapidly
direct contact with +2 C water ,  cooled a bit from a summer of continuous warming.

Sea water right into the melt zone by any standards extremely warm,  therefore giving images like this: 

We have a look at apparently rapid melting,  at least for this time of the year,  with equally fast Southwards flowing sea ice as seen October 4 ,  the goodbye waves here are definitely artistic and
different than slow melting type as reported with previous article.  Warm surface sea water +2 C awaits any arrivals.  wd October 9, 2018

Slow melting Goodbye Waves examples

~ 78 N 176 W very slow melting made obvious by individual Goodbye Waves readily identifiable day by day.

~   The waves in this case seem to stream over fresh melted less saline colder sea water.

    This JAXA portion of melt area is very interesting,   JAXA October 4 and 5 has more sea ice than NASA captures,  that is not new,  but here we see the likelihood that Goodbye Waves are melting over less saline recently melted  sea water,  not really warmed by significant sunlight.

   There is melting,  but not so fast , October 1 to 5 NASA EOSDIS,  we look especially at left waves
breaking down slowly.  We also see a day by day variation in the main pack compacting a little but really moving,   still individual waves are recognizable,  a large contrast to not so long ago melting when the waves disappeared or were impossible to identify from one day to next.   WDOctober 5 2018

Open water towards 85 North at October's gate

    The Atlantic front East of Spitsbergen is also advancing Northwards.  It is probably the slowest overall refreeze since 2012.  There is likely some freezing  but also a great daily variance in extent due to floating snow and possibly some melting,  needing to be identified in specific areas.  But here ,  the Eat Siberian bite seems unstopped in its ever slow advance,  JAXA 15 to 29 September 2018 ,  the 15th being the messiest at the top left corner.

September 26 to October 1, amazing NASA captured  melting at edge of Equinox North Pole darkness on what is the continuing advance of water towards the North from the East Siberian Sea quadrant,  with strong evidence of melting:

These Goodbye Waves,  the last phase of sea ice to water,  changed in structure day by day  September 29-30 and October 1,  it was also certainly a mix of fusion physics requiring presence of a ship confirming and observing this directly.

WD September 30, October 1  2018

Tale of 2 sides of the North Pole, one with fresh snow cover, the other a summer cloudy day

 A 2018 special feature wide open water where no human has ever seen before,   was covered up by
snow  ,  as if it never happened.  But it is still there,  under very thin or snow covered sea.

       There is a stalemate in the Atlantic front,  very warm North Atlantic waters keep any progression of sea ice at bay.

   September 14 15,  15 is the one with withe tip at top most end of sea ice,  the North Atlantic front is still heading towards the Pole.  There is a distinct possibility that AMSR2 confuse "Goodbye Waves" with rock hard sea ice.  daily scattered/compressed oscillation of sea ice suggests so.

    80 N 166 W NASA captures 8, 10 and 16 September,  leaves no doubt of further melting  from within,  a compacted ice pack would have less water from within.  

78 N 173 E,  proof of melting again,  with a very small bit of compaction can be determined by the slight displacement of largest pans at right,  while bigger number of goodbye waves in a mere 2 days. WD September 16 2018 

Minima time rapid melting

~When most September 15's are Minima time,  sea ice in 2018 is still rapidly vanishing

NASA EOSDIS September 8-14-15 loop. 79 NORTH 180 West
Great melting has occurred when most times it should be slowed to a stop, indicating warm sea water and air effects with no possible appreciable compaction. 8 to 14 show simply melting with “goodbye waves” galore, individual packs last stand, while 14-15 comparison has differing goodby waves,
meaning different packs on their way to water. There is no doubt about strong melting very late in season.

    It is not impossible to conceive that "goodbye waves"  may be mistaken as ice packs,  as on passive microwave detectors.

   September 14 to 15 wildly different goodbye waves (left) indicate strong melting in the final phase change of differing ice packs.  Note the clouds obstructing a better view (right). 

There has been a major Arctic Ocean climate circulation change ever since
the great melt of 2012, whereas a new thinner sea ice based weather has been
firmly established. While during summer this regime is characterized by the
presence of long lasting cloud coverage favoring the presence of hovering
lingering cyclones, effectively slowing down summer time melting, this very thin ice regime
also favors more clouds during autumn and winter, whilst less melting
during summer was established,  reduced accretion during the other seasons took hold.
The net resulting effect is a slow but gradual thinning of sea ice, which
culminates to now, the minima season delayed.

WD September 15, 2018

LATE season melting examples

~With clouds rarely absent ,  a  glimpse of pre-minima very late melting

   Extraordinary "Goodbye Waves" action,  EOSDIS September 9 and 13,  notice they differ in 4 days,  indicating different ice melting,  because a goodbye wave is a final wave of an individually distinct ice mass.  This loop confirms current active melting when the minima should have been declared, the picture with less sea ice is on the 13th.   Sea ice agglomeration density of thousands of little ice islands significantly reduced as well.

  Wrangle Island  has +9 C surface water near by,  seen top left,  during same 9-13 loop ,   all these remaining micro packs are doomed.    Notice internal melting mid extreme right. 

    We are not even dealing with compaction,  which if allowed,  would rapidly reduce sea ice extent
even more dramatically,  a considerable cyclone would do so.  WD September 13, 2018

Differing resolutions confusions

~There is a whole lot less ice than 15% extent rule 16 KM grid suggests
~We explore differing resolutions

   Despite latest reports suggesting we are at minima,  not so, at minima again,  nope,  largely because of wind system changes, despite there is still a great deal of melting going on in the Pacific side of the Pole.  However a significant Arctic Ocean air temperature dipole exists, on the other side of North Pole temperatures are colder,  the ice on Atlantic side is largely more densely compacted than the Pacific quadrant,  not so much compared to previous Septembers.

NASA EOSDIS below transect looks at the visually cloud free area within the pink area on September 10 JAXA above.  

   NASA EOSDIS September 11.   Observe significantly huge  "Goodbye Waves"  sea ice in final melting stages, we can confirm without much of a doubt that16 km grid 15% extent rule  calls all of the areas seen here covered with 100% sea ice.  However the JAXA colored map above gives a better representation at 6.25 km per grid and describes reality better than 10 km resolution  which is likely the daily JAXA numerical value:

       The 10 km grid random scan same area reveals no 14% sea ice coverage,  so it is all read as 100%. Even if water covers a grid area by 80%......  WD September 11, 2018

Laptev sea surface temperatures bites big time

~The entire Arctic Ocean ice pack veers clockwise from counterclockwise
~This gives a misleading slowdown in melt numbers,  it follows a usual pattern of fast-slow-slow- fast melt cycle
~North of Laptev sea Goodbye Waves abound,  a sure sign of warm seas

The ease by which sea ice pack veers or backs,  clockwise or counterclockwise by pressure system winds is a sure sign of thinness,  always intermixed with older sea ice,  but over all lesser weight of the entire pack means less momentum keeping one direction longer:

   Not long ago,  the pack turned the other way,  July 31 to August 7 JAXA loop demonstrates the presence of a steady anticyclone over the Arctic Ocean.  During the earlier switchover,  sea ice daily melts slowed down,  or appeared so,  because of scattering rather than a temperature effect.

Laptev sea was open early,  had plenty of time to pick up solar rays,  the result is rapid 7 day sea lost easily identifiable by bountiful Goodbye Waves,  these are done by sea ice just about to disappear as water.   Here 44.5 nautical miles melted in 7 days direction North,  August 1 to 7.   A speed of 6.4 nautical miles a day.   

   Also pushed North is this Laptev warm sst's very next to CMC 50% pack extents.  There is no melting slowdown possible when so.  WD August 7 2018

Atlantic front race to 85 North vs Pacific waters massacre

~Central Arctic Basin 2018 is #1 is lowest extent

~ Beaufort sea and CAA make up  400 K difference with 2012, while 2018 has 464, 000 km2 more sea ice than 12

~ Along with other peripheral seas, which will have near 0 extent come mid September,  2018 is technically #1 at the moment.  

   CMC reporting whopping +9 C sea surface temperatures in the Bering sea can only mean one thing:

  We note super fast melting conditions North of Bering sea,  with ripe conditions enhanced by a High pressure Gyre favouring compaction and flow of  extreme warm waters finishing off straggling sea ice pans.  On the Atlantic Front,  we see Fram Strait loosing sea ice rapidly due to no flow conditions, but also a race towards a 85N on the entire Atlantic sea ice shore line.  The NE passage is about to open first, equally as expected in April,  the NW passage is clogged with sea ice but should open partially much later. 

     What about the black spots appearing in waves on the JAXA animation above?  They are open water zones opening closing rapidly as captured 82 N 176 W:

   The JAXA dark spots indicate rapid movement of sea ice sometimes leaving open water gaps which may fill with rubble and slush,  is part of the same process detected North of Alaska about a month ago.  Rapid motion of sea ice may be interpreted as steady sea ice albedo until the slush turns to goodbye waves,  when the entire pack collapses rapidly as occurring North of Alaska at present.  WD July 30 2018

Bering sea black melt potential

~2018 slow start melt season picks up not only speed but darkness
           

   From AMSR2 JAXA daily extent melt numbers July 21-22-23-24 in km2/day:

2012         2013        2014        2015         2016       2017       2018

-58703    -58133    -28828    -139308   -111030   -96509   -133995 

-51872  -106572   -50552   -107064      -55089    -93661   -139657 

-62907  -116820   -78800   -113552      -46065    -41377   -118268 

-102879  -71755   -28430   -100037     -59703      -9685   -124573

  2018 has a staggering dominating melt pace; 

At the moment, the most significant difference between 2012 and 18 melt can be seen just North of
Alaska, whereas the ice flows clockwise and counterclockwise respectively, the difference being
extensive over a long period of time warmed Bering sea waters in 18 compared to 2012 Beaufort newly exposed sea surface:

We look for "Goodbye Waves" which are pre total melting of ice over a sea surface, 2012 Beaufort sea had then very few, mainly because of sea ice drift movement dominating an apparent melting, while same date 2018: Multiple Goodbye Waves signify rapid melting is occurring very likely from much warmed sea surface WD July 24 2018

KARA sea ice appears to have significant melting and extensive water ponds

   Kara sea next to  Russia shore has lost a lot of sea ice,  with remaining having greenish colours indicating melt ponds..  Note the 'goodbye waves' in the dark sea,  precursor sea ice just about to completely melt and merge with sea water.

Comparison with 2010-2017 makes 2018 most favorable about melting rates exceeding 2012,  the wider open dark sea water zone of 18 rivals 2010,  but is most significant causing its remaining sea ice very vulnerable.  WD June 12, 2018

Astounding sea ice velocities suggest free flowing sea ice never consolidated

   NASA EOSDIS  recent Worldview,  already having Goodbye Waves Upper Right,  signifying heavy melting from easily broken apart sea ice,  similar to what we usually see in July or August.  This kind of movement  North of Novaya Zemlya makes coming data days confusing,  as it was ever since the great dispersion of the strongest densest Canadian Pack last September.  We have had this event of a miss-judged magnitude,  the lack of a more stable sea ice pack has triggered more fluid movements always giving open water at some point anywhere over the Arctic Ocean,  this helped warm Arctic Ocean air and "invite"  more Cyclones to linger longer, making the warmest Arctic Ocean in recorded history.   These images reflect this warming.  WD April 8,2017

Snow or Grey ice or a mix of both? + Rapid displacements at minima.

  September 21  location                             VVVVVVV

 I calculate 30.6 nautical miles displacement in 5 days,  note ^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^  big pan on September 16 just above (86.57N 109.29E).   It travelled on average more than 6 nautical miles a day,  very rapid rate AGAINST the Transpolar Stream Current.  It means that there is a lot of grey ice and floating snow between the broken packs .   If grey areas was new sea ice they would completely cover the gaps,    But if it is floating snow or grey ice the leeward side would be full while the windward (towards the bottom of this page) open,  the open water locations change so it is likely floating snow which changes in texture with time and exposure.   Sea ice would set easier on the windward because pack ice offers no waves and a wind shade facilitating freeze-up more.

83 N 112W smack in the middle of densest but de-coiled pack ice, with temperatures between -10 to -17 C ,  still has open water (by movement) with a daily displacement of 3 nautical miles a day, a very rapid rate for dense pack indeed.  But with new sea ice,  recognized by drifting snow on top of it.  

Meanwhile near Franz Josef lands:

      The flow is equally rapid seen by open leads amongst loose pummeled pack.  The Goodbye Waves are less expansive than before,  but there are many of them.  WD September 22, 2016

Plenty of melting not that it shows numerically

Franz Josef Land has near 0 C temperatures, but with sst's +2 C

Goodbye Waves a plenty,  and some opposite Transpolar Stream action effectively returning the loose pack towards the North Atlantic on its Eastern sector:  

JAXA chart  keeps on showing expansion of sea ice,  which is exactly following the 15% rule.  

There is likely no freezing,  mainly moving loose sea ice in contrary direction of the Transpolar Stream:

Looking carefully,  even with colder sea water and air near the Pole,  there is a presence of Goodbye Waves.  But far skinnier than near Franz Josef Lands.  

  The apparent open water gap filling sea ice is nothing but pack ice having plenty of dispersing room.  Note a huge sector of denser pack ice as well moving towards Russia,  likely part of de-coiling of Canadian side sea ice.    The 15% rule is very bad in describing this event pictographically. The sea ice provenance area has more expanded open water,  this does not show at all on JAXA chart,  because there is a great deal of shattering,  sea ice moving one way,  transpolar current moving the other,  plenty of stress, movement and collisions, but what the chart doesn't show is the vastness of open sea water.  Much greater than ever before near the North Pole.  WD September 11,2016