Friday, June 22, 2018

2018 Shake and Bake sea ice

~Huge difference between 2012 and 2018 is sea ice velocity
~2018 Beaufort sea ice is still moving very fast
~This of course distorts 2018 extent numbers until much further melting likely requiring less solar energy.

 June 14 to 22 2012,  note the rather unison movement of the sea ice towards land.

As opposed to 2018 same period,  with strong clockwise motion.  Note encroaching broken up sea ice over the already exposed dark sea water next to shore.  This obviously increased extent all while there was no new ice made.  This exposes the problem of the 15% extent rule,  largely dedicated for a long gone Arctic Ocean ice architecture which did not collapse from within.

    Extent wise 2012 appears to have more open water but 2018 has far more surface water within the main sea ice body.  Greater motion adds to extent as well,  but also pulverizes the sea ice pans more.  The difference here between 12 and 18 will be made more apparent when greater melting continues,  it seems obvious that one year had less intra collisions (2012) than the other (2018).  This is the difference to consider,  a more fluid pack interspersed with water is also more capable in dispersing sea ice in the wider open zones,  in effect increasing apparent extent numbers,  until what would eventually appear to be a near spontaneous melt down,  apparently sudden from all the crushing action transforming  uniformly reflecting solar forcing vast sea ice canopy to a partial pulverized slushy mix.

Consider June 22 2013

    We know the long term results from  this kind of ice structure,  it will lead to lesser melting come sea ice minima.   This is not the case in 2018 and was not so for 2012.

now consider 2102 August 1 before the great cyclone of August 5

    Sea ice largely melted in place,  unlike 2018 which is already broken up.   It is now a matter of cloud coverage (which dominated in 2013),  if similarly less as of 2012 season,  2018 has a good chance of surpassing the all time lowest extent record.    But clouds should persist till beginning of August,  again mimicking since 2012 a new summer cloud-scape caused by thinner sea ice and a different circulatory system.

WD June 22, 2018

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