Enormous heat from thinner sea ice blunts and deforms world wide winter circulation

 ~We look at the source of strange weather holistically, but in particular where it is more perturbed.

~Hurricane like heat injects into the Arctic fall and early winter atmosphere simply because Arctic sea ice is thinner. 

  Voyage of the FRAM, Nansen Norwegian polar expedition, 1893-1896.   On the red trail above, Arctic sea ice was recorded to be 3.1 to 3.8 meters thick.

    Same track DMI Dec 15 2024,  gives a thickness nowhere close to 3 meters, something like 0.5 meters at start of famous expedition journey.  

     O.5 meters of sea ice, spanning a huge area gives off close to 100 Watts/m2 heat into the Arctic Ocean atmosphere directly above,  in total darkness,  compare this to CO2 contribution of 4 Watts/m2, consider this warming giving a glimpse of things to come. Remember Nansen reported 3 meters thickness, this capped the Arctic ocean heat transfer almost completely then.

What does this heat injection do?:

U of Maine Climate Reanalyzer,  thinner Arctic sea ice heat injection to the atmosphere, literally shows up almost every day as a warming directly into Polar darkness.  Making a definite very strong contribution to 2 m surface warming.   In turn, the alteration of sea  icescape thickness modifies planetary waves morphology, these are Polar Vortex contortions, greatly affecting weather everywhere onto the warming caused extremes everyone experiences.  WD December 15 2024 

Thinning sea ice looks like no other time, but extent results don't show it

 ~  Amazing degradation of sea ice tidal ridging zone in one year

This was the sea ice picture of 2023-24,  the freezing in place of new sea ice, a huge area, not destroyed by daily tidal ridging, the black area North of Axel Heiberg Island  (the Island with Fjords at right)  

   December 23 2023 Polar View High Resolution image of a huge area of sea ice lasting all winter.  A first in the corrupted by AGW Arctic Ocean sea ice. Although winter 2024-25 has not as large fast thin ice area at freeze up,  over all sea ice condition is worse in a vaster expanse: 

  Same area onset of winter freeze, December 3 2024,  but there is an even greater cumulative  area of thinner and broken up sea ice, giving a loose pack ice look North of NW Canadian Archipelago Islands.  This is a view of the last stand of Arctic Ocean summer sea ice, before there are none in summer, what is left of the thickest sea ice is badly broken up.  I suspect that next December 2025 will look even more grim.  This area has great tides from The Northwest, ensuring ridging or the thickening sea ice by the sheer weight of massive sea ice folding ice sheets on top of each other, but if the greater Arctic Ocean pack ice is equally thinner the ridging mega push looses strength as was the case for winter 2023-24

    Heat radiation gained to the atmosphere by much depleted, thinned Arctic Ocean sea ice is enormous. This significant feature will reduce the shape and extent of the coldest Northern Atmosphere  (The Polar Vortex) during winter will affect the climate of every Northern Hemisphere location.  WD December 4 2024  

Abnormal beyond model warming; One big reason: Slower moving circulation caused by vanishing thinning Arctic sea ice

 ~Interesting article by GSC Gavin Schmidt, a must read:  https://www.nytimes.com/2024/11/13/opinion/climate-change-heat-planet.html

~Most can be indirectly understood if you read my latest of many similar yearly April climate Projections for the summer fall:

https://eh2r.blogspot.com/2024/04/2024-summer-fall-projection-forecast.html

The reason why the warming is greater for the Northern Hemisphere is simple, Arctic sea ice reduction in area and thickness surrounded by continents.  For this we must look at NASA GISS:

                  Annual mean Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius
                                      selected zonal means
                                      --------------------
                    sources:  GHCN-v4 1880-10/2024 + SST: ERSST v5 1880-10/2024
                    using elimination of outliers and homogeneity adjustment 

                         Note: ***** = missing - base period: 1951-1980  

                           24N   24S   90S     64N   44N   24N   EQU   24S   44S   64S   90S
Year  Glob  NHem  SHem    -90N  -24N  -24S    -90N  -64N  -44N  -24N  -EQU  -24S  -44S  -64S Year
2021    85   114    55     143    65    53     206   136   127    72    58    72    33    30 2021
2022    89   116    62     152    56    70     235   150   127    62    51    78    40   108 2022
2023   117   150    85     178   106    71     258   187   147   108   105    90    45    62 2023
Year  Glob  NHem  SHem     24N   24S   90S     64N   44N   24N   EQU   24S   44S   64S   90S Year
                          -90N  -24N  -24S    -90N  -64N  -44N  -24N  -EQU  -24S  -44S  -64S
 The zonal mean 64-90 North and South says it all.  There is a continent wide Glacier at the South Pole, while at the North Pole there is a continent size Ocean covered by sea ice.  If this sea ice vanishes,   something likely to happen during a coming summer, temperatures at North Pole Region would warm much more.  At the moment, the warming is gradual but close to 4 times faster compared to the Antarctic.
    A slowing of global circulation is a symptom of massive temperature differentiation from one temperature zone to the next,  as the Arctic sea ice disappears so will the Northern Hemisphere swift weather events usually lasting a day or so, temperatures between the North Pole and Equator will be significantly less, engendering slow to sluggish circulations causing catastrophic events to linger, such as Typhoon/Hurricanes moving slowly over a populated area, as already happened.  Causing entire regions languishing under same weather conditions for days or much longer,  such as excessive droughts, never ending heavy rain periods as has happening more recently again.  
   July peak record breaking temperatures way above climate model projections (NYtimes article) is an indication confirming that Northern Hemisphere is warming faster than the South, largely tempered by massive Oceans and said huge Antarctic Glacier.  There is ample evidence of Arctic sea ice changes, suffices to say, its state is nowhere similar compared with a mere 20 years ago.  Especially autumn and winter ice topography, recently more broken and with open water, along with the warmed Oceans have caused our present delay of onset of winter worldwide.  WD December 1 2024
 

Introducing the Optical Ancient Chronology , using archeo-astronomy enhanced by refraction science

~The importance of an accurate Ancient Chronology helps explain climate induced historical events, some spanning for decades.  For instance, incredible monuments like the Giza Pyramids were not built during massive droughts, of which devastating famines following their construction caused a lost of technological prowess which built them in the first place.  Or for instance, the rise of Egyptian 18th Dynasty New Kingdom which started by expelling the Hyksos, the latter likely weakened by another disastrous drought period.  Following of which in the middle of the 18th,  Pharaoh Hatshepsut temple was built during an era of normalcy giving prosperity, sustaining an Ancient Egyptian renaissance period re-establishing the building of magnificent monuments and structures.

~Today's Anthropogenic enhanced climate change is much compensated by modern technology, but the limits of this techno driven world are already being tested, in the form of civil strife and mass migration. Given that much of the world's population are living day by day, at the razor edge of survival, a prolonged climate event, such caused from AECC, makes for great motivation to leave a day by day razor's edge existence to desperately migrate to the countries who fare better despite extreme weather events.  

~History is full of  pre industrial climate disasters, even though they didn't last very long (decades to 100 years or so).  None more salient than the 12th century collapse of the Bronze age Mediterranean civilizations, or the greatest example of our ancient past,  the collapse of Ancient Egypt Old Kingdom.  

 ~ Being so fitting we start with 4 optically aligned years,  all ancient Egyptian.

~All can be refined given better data, note most  data is taken from what is available online, Google Earth can regionally be accurate if proven so.  Far better on site research with the highest precision GPS instruments can ultimately lead to more solid dating. 

NOTE : these dates are tentatively close, some will likely change. They are presented in order of discovery

KMT 1

2370 BC ........ A KMT 1, Ancient Kemet/Egyptian 1,  start of construction year of the Great Pyramid, Pharaoh Khufu coronation 2340 BC, followed by coronations of Djedefre, Kefren and Menkaure between 2340 and 2302 BC, in the Queens chamber of the Great Pyramid.

          Astronomical prowess of Ancient Egyptians need not to be reintroduced, the very orientation of the Giza pyramids is self explanatory. But these pyramids reflect a stronger adherence to the upwards sky absent of refraction, except for the Sphinx gaze to the horizon, which has a strong refraction component, making it not as stable with respect to precision, perfection.  The Great Pyramid was based on the transit equivalency of Sopdet/Sirius and RA/Sun occurring 30 days before the winter solstice (in 2370 BC).  Khufu Ahket, the name of the great Pyramid as written then, meaning the horizon of Khufu, has a relation to the horizon only with respect to the sunrise at the equinox.   

KMT 2

1313 BC  Amenhotep IV, Akhenaten Coronation year.  Akhenaten tried to re-establish the solar RA dominance in governance, replacing Amun as the God of Gods and placing RE or the Aten as the God which can be always felt and seen. 

          There are several corroborating monuments and historical findings which tend to agree with 1313. Namely the alignment of the Great Aten Temple at Akhetaten or Tel el Amarna.  Two boundary stelae proclaiming in a very clever secret way the date of Akhenaten coronation,  a new hieroglyph inspired by a blue refracted hourglass sunrise, only possible at higher elevation horizon as found at Akhetaten/Amarna [involving heavy refraction science ].  The dendrochronology dating of the Uluburun shipwreck dedicated firewood for cooking, 1305 BC,  also found on the wreck;  a gold scarab of the great wife of Akhenaten, Nefer Neferu Aten, or Nefertiti, not co-ruling yet.  

                                   Clean air blue sunset or sunrise upon a higher horizon.  

KMT 3

 3422 BC.  Pharaoh 0,   the first Pharaoh was crowned when the winter solstice transit sun was at the same altitude as Sirius at transit.  From this time onwards, Sirius/Sun Transit equivalence drifted earlier in the year away from the winter solstice, this is the proto genesis of all Pharaohs of especially the Old Kingdom mainly upwards look at the sky.  This was a quasi refraction free high precision moment in time. 

KMT 4

   1427 BC +/- 20 years based on 116.767 degrees Azimuth dot sunrise    Hatshepsut temple at Waset/Luxor/ Deir el Bahri, aligned with the winter solstice sunrise, designed by her vizier architect and astronomer Senenmut.

        Caution must be taken with Google Earth accuracy, therefore the large +/- variance in dating. Some GE regions of the world may be well off, some others like at Luxor apparently not. This can be much improved by high precision in situ GPS equipment. 

A paper:    " Studying the Orientations of Luxor Ancient Egyptian Temples Using QuickBird Images"

By Mosalam Shaltout and Ahmed Ibrahim Ramzi

1. NRIAG (National Research Institute of Astronomy and Geophysics), Cairo 11421, Egypt 2. NARSS (National Authority for Remote Sensing and Space Sciences), Cairo11421, Egypt  "  

 Gives  a bearing of  116 degrees 48′34.44".  116.746 degrees Azimuth. While using Google Images GEO Eye-1.

    The sunrise dot as seen from Luxor Eastern then pristine mainly pollution free hill scape can be less than 8 arc seconds in width.  While using Laskar latest declination formula, and considering a near constant refraction value from higher elevation horizons, as derived from local Upper Air archives.  The winter or summer sunrise solstice is likely the easiest horizon high precision astronomical bearing (if not the only one) which can be found within a few years of observations. In Ancient Egypt, this certainly became an understanding which prompted a shift in building philosophy which in its past was particularly designed to avoid refraction effects, from the Great Pyramids, inspired by well above the horizon gaze, to the Middle and New Kingdom temples of the Nile Valley, being mostly sunrise dedications having the same astronomical alignment accuracy as the pyramids, achieved without expending far greater resources.  Hatshepsut temple was likely aligned with the predynastic concept of the original pharaohs being Gods, ie pharaoh 0, since Hatshepsut claimed her father being a God.  Hatshepsut  coronation/dedication had exactly the same sun shaft as with the Great Pyramid Queen's chamber. except it was much miniaturized in length but aimed at the horizon like the Sphinx.  And she was known to have made built a lot of sphinxes.

               An 8 Arc seconds wide sunset, it can be just as much a sunrise dot.  These are easily seen by normal eyesight alone. The perfect positioning with respect to Hatshepsut Temple needs a flat leveled field, such as found in front her temple.  Then by means of thin rods,  suspended plums or even stones, a repeat alignment of the furtherest South winter solstice sunrise may be replicated on a few occasions, identifying the true solstice bearing.  During such alignments, a small shaft as found at the temple, may be built with the comprising solstice sunrise dot at the center lower shaft bottom, this permits subsequent years whole sun to penetrate the inner sanctum starting center left if the air is heavily refracted, or drifting from center to the right after normal average refraction sunrise.  Thus a small wall with square shaft may be built first before the entire temple structure is built around it.    

More to come Looking for historian or Egyptologist to co-write for peer reviewing please reply your interest here in the comment option by saying hi,  will see your email thereafter.

wd May 19,21,, 2024

  

      

                   

2024 Summer Fall projection forecast based on Arctic in origin synopsis

~ Similarities with recent years may be few

~Very late Arctic Basin High to Low pressure switchover is expected

April-May

   Clouds domination affect two primary weather parameters, one is snow on the surface, two is apparent slow melting of sea ice.  In other words, an apparent cooling will be the result,  building cold High pressure systems, which become stable over the Arctic basin Gyre until a switchover occurs, this when cold surface air is part of a summer Low pressure system. There should be a High pressure system dominating most days over the Arctic Basin Gyre throughout this period. The extra snow is a proxy for sea ice, it is not as stable as sea ice, from snow sublimation and under sea ice warmer water temperatures.  The thinner sea ice area come June and July, bereft of snow, will likely maintain a summer High pressure system, favoring warmer air. Thereafter, when the ice melts, open Polar cooler ocean becomes the main main attraction for Arctic summer cyclones, so switchover is expected in late July primarily because winter heat imprint on sea ice on the Canadian side of the Pole is far stronger than on  the Russian side.  This late switch in pressure system locations would have been much earlier given a CTNP dominances on the Canadian side, that was not the case.  A double H high pressure symbol,  from blue to war red, indicates the evolution of the nature of anticyclones when spring turns to summer. The cold nights and low noon sun of spring favors High’s being cold, eventually the sun gaining height in the sky literally changes the nature of pressure systems. A Blue High indicates a stable much slower transition, like wise with cyclones which are usually always cooler in summer, but except for in origin warm sea cyclones,  including intense hurricanes. 

June-July

    The Arctic basin Gyre will be blasted by more sun rays than usual on account of a late pressure switchover, at about mid July onwards the extreme sun bath slows down.  Desert High Pressures will expand in extent Northwards in both America and from North Africa.   The Lone CTNP cell will hang about Russia, apparently causing a delay in ice melting there.  The Polar jet stream will collapse in pieces  but along  near this cell.  Cold surface hugging cyclones will dominate wherever open water subsists, one must remember the effects of El-Nino worldwide extra clouds on creating extra precipitation, making their final disruptions, mid west North America late July onwards.  The dissolution of the CTNP will finally entail a strong late melting rate on the Russian side of the Pole, 

August-September

   Unfortunately, predicting that there will be another great sea ice melt is easy, its final form, extent and where it melts not so.  Eventually as August progresses Greenland takes prominence as the only Mega albedo area in the Arctic, it should become the CTNP, but its altitude prevents this, however remnant Arctic Basin sea ice will team up with Greenland to form the new Polar Vortex of sorts, hence a zone of High pressures to the North and Southwards of Greenland will be encroached by slow moving cyclones. East of Greenland median cyclones often to become quasi stationary over open vast open sea water areas.  To the West of Greenland median ever so inching Northwards cyclones appear to  struggle moving North by Synoptic weather systems.  Western Europe and Central North America will have  significant slow moving High Pressures not part of the desert anticyclones further Southwards. As El’Nino does not usually foster numerous hurricanes , the few will be caught from being quasi stationary by the elongated Greenland Southern High pressure, ensuring slow rotational death at sea in the East Atlantic, or slow encroachment Northwards joining the Eastern North American seaboard.  Not like typhoons venturing further  North than ever thought possible.  The biggest problem for a complete Arctic sea ice melt will continue, mainly by two factors; waning El-Nino twinned with the ever so persisting North Pacific surface sea water high temperature blob, a perpetual cloud machine.  I’d expect a greater melt than 2012 but not by much, Arctic basin sea ice remnants at minima will look awfully battered and emaciated though. Freeze-up in October will permeate the Arctic Ocean shores with even more fast ice extending much larger than October 2023.   If the Arctic Ocean winter come December looks like a dark ring of thin ice throughout the entire inner Sea, 2025 melt will finally clear at the Pole. It was amazing to witness thick pack sea ice not overpowering the much thinner NW Canadian archipelago expansive dark fast ice all winter.   The end of summer sea ice is nigh within a few years if this dark ring occurs.  In the mean time, Canadian side 2024 Northwest passage will open first before the Russian North East one, however the broken ice from the larger Basin will clog channels up for a while.  

    Over all weather is what you’d expect from the last few years except for the greater moisture impact El-Nino gives, a tandem dynamic effect in the Polar regions was and is a significant CTNP shift towards Russia, it is very unlikely that weather in most parts of the Northern Hemisphere will be the same as Summer 2023.  Rather the only thing similar is the slow sluggish movement of weather systems, obviously under more rainy conditions, that is a key difference , but not where massive anticyclones hardly move.  For some celebrate during  great sunny weather days, for others too much every day solar heat than desired induces Air Conditioning isolation inside the smaller world home, too much of any weather feature is never pleasant.  The consequences of slow moving pressure systems give simultaneous extreme weather differences within the same continents, ‘extreme lack of familiar weather’  will be key often repeated words surely  to be used.

Extraordinary Polarview central Northwest coast of the Canadian Arctic Archipelago black fast ice (2024/02/18), fast ice is first year ice while the white ones are multiyears), stayed like so the entire winter, while in a few years past would have been easily crushed when first formed in late autumn.  

Shoreline black ice survived all winter long well into the spring,  and is now moving with rest of Basin pack after early spring break.  Such ice, thinner and new year, ringing the entire Arctic Ocean Basin shoreline in October would be a bad presage announcing a coming wider if not complete sea ice melt.  

     NOAA sea surface temperature page, the great Pacific high sea surface temperature blob survives still, except a bit weaker, nevertheless a great cloud enhancer considering even a weakening El-Nino combined with every sea warmer, notably and especially the Atlantic and Indian oceans. These are progenitors of heavy rains, and for the Arctic, more clouds.WD April 24, 2024   

Annual summer early fall climate weather projection, by unorthodox means, the one and only place that does so, with actual database.

~Summer 2024 is already baked hot

~Slow transition to La-Nina, there still persists a surplus of Arctic clouds

~2016-2024 remarkably similar, suggesting a 2016 summer 

~ Вот это да! Cold Temperature North Pole was more Siberian Russian

WHAT is the score?  Vertical sun disk differential refraction results.

The most potent forecast tool in the world, number of average maximum vertical sun disks, at decimal elevation from 0 to 10 degrees, confirm there is an El-Nino, might seem a ridiculous statement,

but all measurements were done 4476 nautical miles from the equator, keep that in mind.

Astounding Results, La-Nina’s or La-Nina type seasons rank in the bottom , El-Nino’s or close to El-Nino peaks rank in the top, strong sea ice melts rank in the middle, such as 2021,2016, 2012 and 2007.  Sea ice will be dealt with later, it is not so simple, all the while of these years sea ice has been progressively thinning, it is no longer comparable without injecting this fact.   2024 had #1 ranking for the longest time during this cloudy observation period, gradually as the sun set further North, vertical sun disk diameter measurements got smaller, because sun rays penetrated the true cold Polar airmass Northwards of 270 degrees azimuth.  This year was no exception, but there were a few records North of 270 degrees, it was amazing. I expected the Cold Temperature North Pole centre to nearly always show record shrunken sun disk diameters North of 270, as was with previous recent years.  But that was not the case. CTNP was mainly in Russia, self driven away by onslaught of record warm North American temperatures, which were in no small part driven by Polar Vortex morphology.  Data from 355 vertical sun disks observations, each one having huge potential in measuring the temperature of the entire atmosphere, like placing thousands of thermometers in line towards the sun all the way to space.  The Southwards sun disks, almost all of them, were near record or surpassing record measurements.  Of each individual elevation degree levels, from 0 to 10 degrees,  9 were 0.1 minutes or more (minutes of arc) above average of 2006 to 2021, however all 2024 individual degree averages were above years 06 to 21.  We note 2018,19,20,22 and 23, all years mainly taken at or near centre of CTNP, making the bottom of the rankings, 2024 marks a significant shift in weather patterns, wherever you are in the Northern Hemisphere, expect different weather, which in some parts of the world is good, in other areas which benefited recent years good summer weather, sorry for the change.  In retrospect 2021, 2006, 2005 and 2009 all had spring time ENSO warming.  Which leads to an interesting posit; are ENSO and the Polar regions CTNP’s placement interlocked?  Does one need the other to reappear?

Sunsets

Round is the word, for most sunsets such as this one March 11 2024, very tame , lame, no refraction miracles.  

      The entire sunset season was defined by excessive clouds, as one might have during a strong El-Nino period.  The sea ice also formed late in the fall of 2023, under mostly cloud covered skies, meaning ice did not accrete as much as usual, this thinnest guarantees weaker inversions.  When the sun reappears during the long night, it warms the sea surface more, and the thermal sea ice rebound is less immediate with thinner ice, in other words, the creation of 

thermal layers is more gradual, therefore less horizon sky anomalies.  Skimming from the few sunsets gathered were mostly Southwards, thus shorter spring days by the mere warming of the Arctic. 

First underwater sea ice interface melt

   First melt occurs when a thermal balance is obtained by solar for forcing, when the bottom of sea ice starts melting.  The thicker the sea ice the greater sunshine is needed. This melting is temporary, still allowing

over all daily accretion eventually bottom melting last hours until melting exceeds accretion, then the ice starts breaking apart.  2024 winter had primarily no snow on the surface, a benefit for sea ice accretion, 

if the low snow cover remains in the spring, it is detrimental for accretion. This years first melt occurred March 16,  one

of the lowest on record, but it snowed a lot more after that date,  thus sparing a continuance of longer under sea ice melting.  As a consequence of this spring gained  more normal snow cover, It took nearly a month for bottom melting 

to resume on April 11.  Although the bottom melting has stopped for a while, ice accretion of course lessened, because of thicker snow insulation,  it was likely a zero sum gain for sea ice thickness.  But indeed an illusion for the larger total 

 sea ice extent it may give as viewed from space.  If this snow cover gain spread throughout the Arctic, I don’t see why not, because of the Atlantic and Pacific moist air dominance, bearing more clouds and snow, this was equally seen with

polar orbiting satellites as some Arctic basin leads, in particular vast areas with thinner sea ice changed colour from grey to white.  The over all sea ice extent may appear larger, but eventually will foster  more melt ponds, over thinner ice,  a catastrophic situation only to be averted by excess cloud cover, which is not foreseen, as El-Nino peak is waning.   

This Concludes the in situ synopsis, next is the over all consequences to be learned from this analysis based on key data. WD April 21, 2024

With less clouds near land, Arctic sea ice shrink

 ~Comparison 2016-2024 El-Nino to El-Nino

~Less cloud factor spells potential doom with current Arctic Sea ice thinned state

There is always less clouds on the East continental coasts when (West to East) air skims over long distance land as opposed to sea. On the East coasts of Asia and America 2024 JAXA sea ice is almost vanished, while comparing sea ice extent between El-Nino winters 2024 Vs 2016 which was the last major El-Nino year. We have here clear example of current state of sea ice, it is overall thinner, therefore melts easier with more sun (less clouds).  This means that 2024 sea ice melt will be remarkably vulnerable from more sunshine.   Unfortunately it seems the worse case scenario for sea ice is unfolding, years of thinning ever so slowly, in a precarious state, it might be facing a La-Nina late summer and fall, over all fewer clouds, because of the cloud seeding effect (a theory of mine), during El-Nino there is more clouds world wide, therefore a warmer winter.  When morphing to a La-Nina summer, it makes for a super hot summer, because winter didn't freeze the world as much as it could, and there will be less albedo sun ray reflecting clouds.  Hence guaranteeing a very low sea ice extent Minima come September 2024.   

As predicted, the greater the warming of the planetary atmosphere the smaller but colder the center of the Polar Vortex will be,  spring 2024 NOAA composites of 2016 vs 2024 proves the idea. the shrinking of the cold zone made continental East Coast sea ice vulnerable to a much warmed winter land surface.

We note:  Siberia had the colder spring and most so during winter, henceforth sea ice footprint is made. 

North American Polar ice is set to take a further appearance of melting, but it really is because it never accreted as much as normal (like 2012). Note the Californian coast of 2024 having more an onslaught of the jet stream, hence more moisture, hopefully smothering wildfires for a while to come.   WD April 19, 2024 

Unprecedented Kara sea ice retreat at Novaya Zemlya, when winter cold should reign supreme.

 ~At least since 2004,  which highly likely means since historical records began.  

~Whilst 2024 maxima hovers about 14 million square Kilometers , right near the lowest extent ever.

University Bremen AMSR2 sea ice concentration  February 24 to March 4 2024:

Now March 4's 2004 to 2024,  2024 is the only one with water South of Novaya Zemlya Island,  at or near Maxima extent,  a fast retreat in the works.  Likely by the nature of sea ice in the sea of Kara,  thinner,  weaker,  not what it use to be not very long ago, not able to survive warmer weather of late.   Early days 2024 already suggest a record year of sea ice events.  WD March 5, 2024

NW Canadian Arctic archipelago littoral thin ice surviving tidal ridging, one more never seen before event

 ~As a result of overall thinner sea ice combined with lesser extent at minima,  the Archipelago coast has a new look

~A totally new Arctic Ocean feature, an introduction to the future shape of winter sea ice to come.

January 9 2023,  a polarview not unlike preceding years, perhaps with some thinner ice compared to the 80's, ridging near the coast can be clearly seen along with tidal frozen shore leads.  The Islands of the arhipelago, have different topography,  Borden Island (top left), Elef Ringnes 2nd from left,  Meighen Island is the little one next to mountainous  Fjord rich Axel Heiberg extreme right.

Impossible scenery December 23 2023.  there is a wide open area of very thin sea ice all along the same coast.  Not a fierce storm temporary feature.  Thin "black" ice was there for quite some time. It was predicted that the coast would be freer seai ice at minima,  this new sea ice was likely frozen in place sometimes in October.   

Very peculiar new sea ice,  never  seen so wide offshore lasting very long.

 Lasting the entire month of Januar 2024.  Remarkable,  in the past, Arctic Ocean sea ice would have crushed this newer thinner shore sea ice in a matter of days.

A closer look loop of January 23 to February 16 2024, reveals the tidal breaking of all ice, new and old, moving in unison in the direction of the Arctic Ocean tidal gyre.  There were several breaks similar to this. Thinner sea ice would break easier.  However, the lack of ridging seems permanent,  indicating a significant change in sea ice dynamics, this is quite unfamiliar, of course expected when the icescape features are fundamentally very different in overall thickness along with major weather pattern changes. WD February 18, 2024 

 

Warm 2023-2024 Worldwide shrinking of winter

 ~600 mb pressure level closely indicates the temperature of the entire atmosphere

~ Current warming undeniably has changed weather patterns everywhere, strange or rare events are normal and common

~In essence, predicting long range weather will be even more difficult because we never been this warmed.  Forecasting chaos is a safer bet.  

GONE is thick sea ice driven cooling over the Arctic ocean,  equally giving no Cold Temperature North Pole at the North Pole, as once was not so long ago.  NEW patterns are a plenty;  NEW by-Polar CTNP's over the continents,  NEW deep warming incursions over the Arctic Ocean, NEW shrinking of the entire winter Zone for the Northern Hemisphere, finally CTNP's can dominate on one continent only, leaving the other with hibernating bees waking up mid winter.  It is now quite foreseeable to visualize the future of winter with a much warmer Arctic Ocean zone cutting off the buildup of strong by-continental anticyclones shivering most of the world.  

     Next few months cooling and likely less of it will determine the coming weather for summer and fall. At present sea ice survives because of clouds, less coverage emperils the white cooling cap of the Polar North. Earth cooling system is hanging by a veil of fine water droplets and ice crystals along with a much thinner sea ice cover. Lets hope Polar clouds keep on reflecting sun rays to space,  otherwise more weather chaos will ensue.  Cloud are vey difficult to predict when moisture in Earth's atmosphere is on a world wide increase.  The tipping point will occur when air temperatures reduce the formation of strati clouds,  from there the end of summer sea ice will be,  from that point winter will be split in two smaller areas. WD February 15 2024