~The active Arctic Ocean open water tidal zone moved 170 Km Southwards in 2025
Just North of Amund Ringnes, circled in red, is an active Tide Zone , as of January 14 2025, way South of where it use to be. 
Thursday, January 16, 2025
Canadian Arctic Archipelago Arctic Ocean significant Tidal Zone moved South
Just North of Amund Ringnes, circled in red, is an active Tide Zone , as of January 14 2025, way South of where it use to be. 
Tuesday, January 7, 2025
EAST Hudson Bay wide area boating season January 5 2025
~A current live event for Anthropogenic enhanced Global Warming.
~ Following up from this EH2r article: "https://eh2r.blogspot.com/2024/12/hudson-bay-revisit-wide-open-water.html
JAXA University of Bremen Sea ice extent , Hudson Bay complete freeze-up will be very late this season, a wide open boating season continues far off the entire East Coast.. As of January 5.
"Freeze-up begins along the northern shore in September and gradually ex- tends southwards and eastwards. In the southeast, freeze-up occurs last, typically around the first of January. " Eric Danielson Jr U. Of Calgary:
From Sven Sungaard an important Graph:
November 12 Hudson Bay sea ice extent 1971-2023. 1998 was a true starting point for Arctic wide perception of extreme warming. Now lets look at Nov 12 2024:
"0"
Monday, January 6, 2025
Never seen before redux, this time just North of Amund Ringnes Island
~A tidal lead never seen before in January:
Very rarely mentioned, nor frequented, Amun Ringnes Island fame occurred long ago when it was first discovered in 1900 by Otto Sverdrup a Norwegian explorer.
Just to its North a Tidal lead which opened about a week ago:
WD January 6,7 2025
Wednesday, December 25, 2024
Hudson Bay revisit, wide open water Eastern quadrant, less cloud effect.
~Surreal open water end of December, Hudson Bay illustrates Earth Warming fast
It is fair to say 2012 greatest sea ice melt in history would take longer to recover, it is equally succinct to demonstrate warmest El-Nino effects should be bad for sea ice in 2016, Hudson Bay started to show even slower refreeze in 2023, but 2024 surpasses them all:
Sea water usually doesn't freeze at -1 C unless 2 m air temperatures are about -11 C or colder, in especially calm winds:
CMC 0 C degree sea surface temperature line way North.
Albedo caused by near 0 degree Centigrade fog and clouds gracefully slow down Arctic Ocean sea ice melting totally during summer. Hudson Bay gets less of this happenstance because it is surrounded by land, once upon a time more frozen for a long period of the year. Not anymore, since mainly from the West air circulating over drier vast lands eventually sheds its total moisture content, causing more over all sunshine. Equally these lesser clouds over H.B. bombards its sea water to be warmer, the surrounding lands likewise.
The lesson here is that faced with a lesser cloud summer event, the Arctic Ocean sea ice would pretty much easily disappear at extent minima. Hudson Bay total sea ice cover, once a beginning of December event, now moves forward into winter not as fiercely cold as it was just a few years ago. WD December 25, 2024.
Sunday, December 15, 2024
Enormous heat from thinner sea ice blunts and deforms world wide winter circulation
~We look at the source of strange weather holistically, but in particular where it is more perturbed.
~Hurricane like heat injects into the Arctic fall and early winter atmosphere simply because Arctic sea ice is thinner.
O.5 meters of sea ice, spanning a huge area gives off close to 100 Watts/m2 heat into the Arctic Ocean atmosphere directly above, in total darkness, compare this to CO2 contribution of 4 Watts/m2, consider this warming giving a glimpse of things to come. Remember Nansen reported 3 meters thickness, this capped the Arctic ocean heat transfer almost completely then.
What does this heat injection do?:
U of Maine Climate Reanalyzer, thinner Arctic sea ice heat injection to the atmosphere, literally shows up almost every day as a warming directly into Polar darkness. Making a definite very strong contribution to 2 m surface warming. In turn, the alteration of sea icescape thickness modifies planetary waves morphology, these are Polar Vortex contortions, greatly affecting weather everywhere onto the warming caused extremes everyone experiences. WD December 15 2024
Wednesday, December 4, 2024
Thinning sea ice looks like no other time, but extent results don't show it
~ Amazing degradation of sea ice tidal ridging zone in one year
This was the sea ice picture of 2023-24, the freezing in place of new sea ice, a huge area, not destroyed by daily tidal ridging, the black area North of Axel Heiberg Island (the Island with Fjords at right)
Sunday, December 1, 2024
Abnormal beyond model warming; One big reason: Slower moving circulation caused by vanishing thinning Arctic sea ice
~Interesting article by GSC Gavin Schmidt, a must read: https://www.nytimes.com/2024/11/13/opinion/climate-change-heat-planet.html
~Most can be indirectly understood if you read my latest of many similar yearly April climate Projections for the summer fall:
https://eh2r.blogspot.com/2024/04/2024-summer-fall-projection-forecast.html
The reason why the warming is greater for the Northern Hemisphere is simple, Arctic sea ice reduction in area and thickness surrounded by continents. For this we must look at NASA GISS:
Annual mean Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius
selected zonal means
--------------------
sources: GHCN-v4 1880-10/2024 + SST: ERSST v5 1880-10/2024
using elimination of outliers and homogeneity adjustment Note: ***** = missing - base period: 1951-1980
24N 24S 90S 64N 44N 24N EQU 24S 44S 64S 90S Year Glob NHem SHem -90N -24N -24S -90N -64N -44N -24N -EQU -24S -44S -64S Year 2021 85 114 55 143 65 53 206 136 127 72 58 72 33 30 2021 2022 89 116 62 152 56 70 235 150 127 62 51 78 40 108 2022 2023 117 150 85 178 106 71 258 187 147 108 105 90 45 62 2023 Year Glob NHem SHem 24N 24S 90S 64N 44N 24N EQU 24S 44S 64S 90S Year -90N -24N -24S -90N -64N -44N -24N -EQU -24S -44S -64SThe zonal mean 64-90 North and South says it all. There is a continent wide Glacier at the South Pole, while at the North Pole there is a continent size Ocean covered by sea ice. If this sea ice vanishes, something likely to happen during a coming summer, temperatures at North Pole Region would warm much more. At the moment, the warming is gradual but close to 4 times faster compared to the Antarctic.A slowing of global circulation is a symptom of massive temperature differentiation from one temperature zone to the next, as the Arctic sea ice disappears so will the Northern Hemisphere swift weather events usually lasting a day or so, temperatures between the North Pole and Equator will be significantly less, engendering slow to sluggish circulations causing catastrophic events to linger, such as Typhoon/Hurricanes moving slowly over a populated area, as already happened. Causing entire regions languishing under same weather conditions for days or much longer, such as excessive droughts, never ending heavy rain periods as has happening more recently again.July peak record breaking temperatures way above climate model projections (NYtimes article) is an indication confirming that Northern Hemisphere is warming faster than the South, largely tempered by massive Oceans and said huge Antarctic Glacier. There is ample evidence of Arctic sea ice changes, suffices to say, its state is nowhere similar compared with a mere 20 years ago. Especially autumn and winter ice topography, recently more broken and with open water, along with the warmed Oceans have caused our present delay of onset of winter worldwide. WD December 1 2024
Sunday, May 19, 2024
Introducing the Optical Ancient Chronology , using archeo-astronomy enhanced by refraction science
~The importance of an accurate Ancient Chronology helps explain climate induced historical events, some spanning for decades. For instance, incredible monuments like the Giza Pyramids were not built during massive droughts, of which devastating famines following their construction caused a lost of technological prowess which built them in the first place. Or for instance, the rise of Egyptian 18th Dynasty New Kingdom which started by expelling the Hyksos, the latter likely weakened by another disastrous drought period. Following of which in the middle of the 18th, Pharaoh Hatshepsut temple was built during an era of normalcy giving prosperity, sustaining an Ancient Egyptian renaissance period re-establishing the building of magnificent monuments and structures.
~Today's Anthropogenic enhanced climate change is much compensated by modern technology, but the limits of this techno driven world are already being tested, in the form of civil strife and mass migration. Given that much of the world's population are living day by day, at the razor edge of survival, a prolonged climate event, such caused from AECC, makes for great motivation to leave a day by day razor's edge existence to desperately migrate to the countries who fare better despite extreme weather events.
~History is full of pre industrial climate disasters, even though they didn't last very long (decades to 100 years or so). None more salient than the 12th century collapse of the Bronze age Mediterranean civilizations, or the greatest example of our ancient past, the collapse of Ancient Egypt Old Kingdom.
~ Being so fitting we start with 4 optically aligned years, all ancient Egyptian.
~All can be refined given better data, note most data is taken from what is available online, Google Earth can regionally be accurate if proven so. Far better on site research with the highest precision GPS instruments can ultimately lead to more solid dating.
NOTE : these dates are tentatively close, some will likely change. They are presented in order of discovery
KMT 1
2370 BC ........ A KMT 1, Ancient Kemet/Egyptian 1, start of construction year of the Great Pyramid, Pharaoh Khufu coronation 2340 BC, followed by coronations of Djedefre, Kefren and Menkaure between 2340 and 2302 BC, in the Queens chamber of the Great Pyramid.
Astronomical prowess of Ancient Egyptians need not to be reintroduced, the very orientation of the Giza pyramids is self explanatory. But these pyramids reflect a stronger adherence to the upwards sky absent of refraction, except for the Sphinx gaze to the horizon, which has a strong refraction component, making it not as stable with respect to precision, perfection. The Great Pyramid was based on the transit equivalency of Sopdet/Sirius and RA/Sun occurring 30 days before the winter solstice (in 2370 BC). Khufu Ahket, the name of the great Pyramid as written then, meaning the horizon of Khufu, has a relation to the horizon only with respect to the sunrise at the equinox.
KMT 2
1313 BC Amenhotep IV, Akhenaten Coronation year. Akhenaten tried to re-establish the solar RA dominance in governance, replacing Amun as the God of Gods and placing RE or the Aten as the God which can be always felt and seen.
There are several corroborating monuments and historical findings which tend to agree with 1313. Namely the alignment of the Great Aten Temple at Akhetaten or Tel el Amarna. Two boundary stelae proclaiming in a very clever secret way the date of Akhenaten coronation, a new hieroglyph inspired by a blue refracted hourglass sunrise, only possible at higher elevation horizon as found at Akhetaten/Amarna [involving heavy refraction science ]. The dendrochronology dating of the Uluburun shipwreck dedicated firewood for cooking, 1305 BC, also found on the wreck; a gold scarab of the great wife of Akhenaten, Nefer Neferu Aten, or Nefertiti, not co-ruling yet.
KMT 3
3422 BC. Pharaoh 0, the first Pharaoh was crowned when the winter solstice transit sun was at the same altitude as Sirius at transit. From this time onwards, Sirius/Sun Transit equivalence drifted earlier in the year away from the winter solstice, this is the proto genesis of all Pharaohs of especially the Old Kingdom mainly upwards look at the sky. This was a quasi refraction free high precision moment in time.
KMT 4
1427 BC +/- 20 years based on 116.767 degrees Azimuth dot sunrise Hatshepsut temple at Waset/Luxor/ Deir el Bahri, aligned with the winter solstice sunrise, designed by her vizier architect and astronomer Senenmut.
A paper: " Studying the Orientations of Luxor Ancient Egyptian Temples Using QuickBird Images"
By Mosalam Shaltout and Ahmed Ibrahim Ramzi
1. NRIAG (National Research Institute of Astronomy and Geophysics), Cairo 11421, Egypt 2. NARSS (National Authority for Remote Sensing and Space Sciences), Cairo11421, Egypt "
Gives a bearing of 116 degrees 48′34.44". 116.746 degrees Azimuth. While using Google Images GEO Eye-1.
The sunrise dot as seen from Luxor Eastern then pristine mainly pollution free hill scape can be less than 8 arc seconds in width. While using Laskar latest declination formula, and considering a near constant refraction value from higher elevation horizons, as derived from local Upper Air archives. The winter or summer sunrise solstice is likely the easiest horizon high precision astronomical bearing (if not the only one) which can be found within a few years of observations. In Ancient Egypt, this certainly became an understanding which prompted a shift in building philosophy which in its past was particularly designed to avoid refraction effects, from the Great Pyramids, inspired by well above the horizon gaze, to the Middle and New Kingdom temples of the Nile Valley, being mostly sunrise dedications having the same astronomical alignment accuracy as the pyramids, achieved without expending far greater resources. Hatshepsut temple was likely aligned with the predynastic concept of the original pharaohs being Gods, ie pharaoh 0, since Hatshepsut claimed her father being a God. Hatshepsut coronation/dedication had exactly the same sun shaft as with the Great Pyramid Queen's chamber. except it was much miniaturized in length but aimed at the horizon like the Sphinx. And she was known to have made built a lot of sphinxes.
More to come Looking for historian or Egyptologist to co-write for peer reviewing please reply your interest here in the comment option by saying hi, will see your email thereafter.
wd May 19,21,, 2024
Thursday, April 25, 2024
2024 Summer Fall projection forecast based on Arctic in origin synopsis
~ Similarities with recent years may be few
~Very late Arctic Basin High to Low pressure switchover is expected
April-May
Clouds domination affect two primary weather parameters, one is snow on the surface, two is apparent slow melting of sea ice. In other words, an apparent cooling will be the result, building cold High pressure systems, which become stable over the Arctic basin Gyre until a switchover occurs, this when cold surface air is part of a summer Low pressure system. There should be a High pressure system dominating most days over the Arctic Basin Gyre throughout this period. The extra snow is a proxy for sea ice, it is not as stable as sea ice, from snow sublimation and under sea ice warmer water temperatures. The thinner sea ice area come June and July, bereft of snow, will likely maintain a summer High pressure system, favoring warmer air. Thereafter, when the ice melts, open Polar cooler ocean becomes the main main attraction for Arctic summer cyclones, so switchover is expected in late July primarily because winter heat imprint on sea ice on the Canadian side of the Pole is far stronger than on the Russian side. This late switch in pressure system locations would have been much earlier given a CTNP dominances on the Canadian side, that was not the case. A double H high pressure symbol, from blue to war red, indicates the evolution of the nature of anticyclones when spring turns to summer. The cold nights and low noon sun of spring favors High’s being cold, eventually the sun gaining height in the sky literally changes the nature of pressure systems. A Blue High indicates a stable much slower transition, like wise with cyclones which are usually always cooler in summer, but except for in origin warm sea cyclones, including intense hurricanes.
June-July
The Arctic basin Gyre will be blasted by more sun rays than usual on account of a late pressure switchover, at about mid July onwards the extreme sun bath slows down. Desert High Pressures will expand in extent Northwards in both America and from North Africa. The Lone CTNP cell will hang about Russia, apparently causing a delay in ice melting there. The Polar jet stream will collapse in pieces but along near this cell. Cold surface hugging cyclones will dominate wherever open water subsists, one must remember the effects of El-Nino worldwide extra clouds on creating extra precipitation, making their final disruptions, mid west North America late July onwards. The dissolution of the CTNP will finally entail a strong late melting rate on the Russian side of the Pole,
August-September
Unfortunately, predicting that there will be another great sea ice melt is easy, its final form, extent and where it melts not so. Eventually as August progresses Greenland takes prominence as the only Mega albedo area in the Arctic, it should become the CTNP, but its altitude prevents this, however remnant Arctic Basin sea ice will team up with Greenland to form the new Polar Vortex of sorts, hence a zone of High pressures to the North and Southwards of Greenland will be encroached by slow moving cyclones. East of Greenland median cyclones often to become quasi stationary over open vast open sea water areas. To the West of Greenland median ever so inching Northwards cyclones appear to struggle moving North by Synoptic weather systems. Western Europe and Central North America will have significant slow moving High Pressures not part of the desert anticyclones further Southwards. As El’Nino does not usually foster numerous hurricanes , the few will be caught from being quasi stationary by the elongated Greenland Southern High pressure, ensuring slow rotational death at sea in the East Atlantic, or slow encroachment Northwards joining the Eastern North American seaboard. Not like typhoons venturing further North than ever thought possible. The biggest problem for a complete Arctic sea ice melt will continue, mainly by two factors; waning El-Nino twinned with the ever so persisting North Pacific surface sea water high temperature blob, a perpetual cloud machine. I’d expect a greater melt than 2012 but not by much, Arctic basin sea ice remnants at minima will look awfully battered and emaciated though. Freeze-up in October will permeate the Arctic Ocean shores with even more fast ice extending much larger than October 2023. If the Arctic Ocean winter come December looks like a dark ring of thin ice throughout the entire inner Sea, 2025 melt will finally clear at the Pole. It was amazing to witness thick pack sea ice not overpowering the much thinner NW Canadian archipelago expansive dark fast ice all winter. The end of summer sea ice is nigh within a few years if this dark ring occurs. In the mean time, Canadian side 2024 Northwest passage will open first before the Russian North East one, however the broken ice from the larger Basin will clog channels up for a while.
Over all weather is what you’d expect from the last few years except for the greater moisture impact El-Nino gives, a tandem dynamic effect in the Polar regions was and is a significant CTNP shift towards Russia, it is very unlikely that weather in most parts of the Northern Hemisphere will be the same as Summer 2023. Rather the only thing similar is the slow sluggish movement of weather systems, obviously under more rainy conditions, that is a key difference , but not where massive anticyclones hardly move. For some celebrate during great sunny weather days, for others too much every day solar heat than desired induces Air Conditioning isolation inside the smaller world home, too much of any weather feature is never pleasant. The consequences of slow moving pressure systems give simultaneous extreme weather differences within the same continents, ‘extreme lack of familiar weather’ will be key often repeated words surely to be used.
Extraordinary Polarview central Northwest coast of the Canadian Arctic Archipelago black fast ice (2024/02/18), fast ice is first year ice while the white ones are multiyears), stayed like so the entire winter, while in a few years past would have been easily crushed when first formed in late autumn.
Sunday, April 21, 2024
Annual summer early fall climate weather projection, by unorthodox means, the one and only place that does so, with actual database.
~Summer 2024 is already baked hot
~Slow transition to La-Nina, there still persists a surplus of Arctic clouds
~2016-2024 remarkably similar, suggesting a 2016 summer
~ Вот это да! Cold Temperature North Pole was more Siberian Russian
WHAT is the score? Vertical sun disk differential refraction results.
The most potent forecast tool in the world, number of average maximum vertical sun disks, at decimal elevation from 0 to 10 degrees, confirm there is an El-Nino, might seem a ridiculous statement,
but all measurements were done 4476 nautical miles from the equator, keep that in mind.
Astounding Results, La-Nina’s or La-Nina type seasons rank in the bottom , El-Nino’s or close to El-Nino peaks rank in the top, strong sea ice melts rank in the middle, such as 2021,2016, 2012 and 2007. Sea ice will be dealt with later, it is not so simple, all the while of these years sea ice has been progressively thinning, it is no longer comparable without injecting this fact. 2024 had #1 ranking for the longest time during this cloudy observation period, gradually as the sun set further North, vertical sun disk diameter measurements got smaller, because sun rays penetrated the true cold Polar airmass Northwards of 270 degrees azimuth. This year was no exception, but there were a few records North of 270 degrees, it was amazing. I expected the Cold Temperature North Pole centre to nearly always show record shrunken sun disk diameters North of 270, as was with previous recent years. But that was not the case. CTNP was mainly in Russia, self driven away by onslaught of record warm North American temperatures, which were in no small part driven by Polar Vortex morphology. Data from 355 vertical sun disks observations, each one having huge potential in measuring the temperature of the entire atmosphere, like placing thousands of thermometers in line towards the sun all the way to space. The Southwards sun disks, almost all of them, were near record or surpassing record measurements. Of each individual elevation degree levels, from 0 to 10 degrees, 9 were 0.1 minutes or more (minutes of arc) above average of 2006 to 2021, however all 2024 individual degree averages were above years 06 to 21. We note 2018,19,20,22 and 23, all years mainly taken at or near centre of CTNP, making the bottom of the rankings, 2024 marks a significant shift in weather patterns, wherever you are in the Northern Hemisphere, expect different weather, which in some parts of the world is good, in other areas which benefited recent years good summer weather, sorry for the change. In retrospect 2021, 2006, 2005 and 2009 all had spring time ENSO warming. Which leads to an interesting posit; are ENSO and the Polar regions CTNP’s placement interlocked? Does one need the other to reappear?
Sunsets
Round is the word, for most sunsets such as this one March 11 2024, very tame , lame, no refraction miracles.
The entire sunset season was defined by excessive clouds, as one might have during a strong El-Nino period. The sea ice also formed late in the fall of 2023, under mostly cloud covered skies, meaning ice did not accrete as much as usual, this thinnest guarantees weaker inversions. When the sun reappears during the long night, it warms the sea surface more, and the thermal sea ice rebound is less immediate with thinner ice, in other words, the creation of
thermal layers is more gradual, therefore less horizon sky anomalies. Skimming from the few sunsets gathered were mostly Southwards, thus shorter spring days by the mere warming of the Arctic.
First underwater sea ice interface melt
First melt occurs when a thermal balance is obtained by solar for forcing, when the bottom of sea ice starts melting. The thicker the sea ice the greater sunshine is needed. This melting is temporary, still allowing
over all daily accretion eventually bottom melting last hours until melting exceeds accretion, then the ice starts breaking apart. 2024 winter had primarily no snow on the surface, a benefit for sea ice accretion,
if the low snow cover remains in the spring, it is detrimental for accretion. This years first melt occurred March 16, one
of the lowest on record, but it snowed a lot more after that date, thus sparing a continuance of longer under sea ice melting. As a consequence of this spring gained more normal snow cover, It took nearly a month for bottom melting
to resume on April 11. Although the bottom melting has stopped for a while, ice accretion of course lessened, because of thicker snow insulation, it was likely a zero sum gain for sea ice thickness. But indeed an illusion for the larger total
sea ice extent it may give as viewed from space. If this snow cover gain spread throughout the Arctic, I don’t see why not, because of the Atlantic and Pacific moist air dominance, bearing more clouds and snow, this was equally seen with
polar orbiting satellites as some Arctic basin leads, in particular vast areas with thinner sea ice changed colour from grey to white. The over all sea ice extent may appear larger, but eventually will foster more melt ponds, over thinner ice, a catastrophic situation only to be averted by excess cloud cover, which is not foreseen, as El-Nino peak is waning.
This Concludes the in situ synopsis, next is the over all consequences to be learned from this analysis based on key data. WD April 21, 2024
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