Ominous signal from the Arctic; it has never been warmer

~Complex system by its vastness,  the Arctic atmosphere warmed to #1 despite any clear year to year trend.

~600 mb temperature analysis reveals September 2019 surpassing 2012, despite 2012 having less sea ice at minima.   

~Shouldn't  2012 atmosphere have been the warmest one? 

NOAA daily composites,  2012 to 2019 600 mb temperature comparison for September.  In a quite amazing contrast of causes, the greatest minima sea ice  had a cooler atmosphere.  In between 2012 and 2019 seasons had over all much cooler Septembers as well.  600 mb temperature is closest level to represent the average temperature of the entire troposphere. How to explain this disparity?

    The Polar Vortex is key,  it was much larger spread out over 2 continents,  now in 2019 much weakened, it is still there but a much deformed entity.  Whereas,  in the past it survived the summer,   now it almost vanishes.  The difference between 2019 and 2018 Polar Vortex was quantified by refraction of the sun disk technique,  2019 had a powerful vortex center nowhere as big and long lasting as 2018.  The smaller the vortex the colder it is at center (this was felt by Chicagoans last winter from when the center of the vortex unusually formed deeply south, a very unstable situation,  it was a short lived super freeze-up). 2012 for instance had a larger vortex,  lasting ,  barely surviving the summer (a key factor of a great sea ice melt).   2018 was astoundingly dominant  for a longer period, healthily survived the sea ice melting season.  In fact it vanished in late October.  2013 was the most peculiar of years ,  there was lots of sea ice extent at minima mid September,  but the vortex survived barely very much like 2012 in a split vortices configuration.   2018 had the strongest summer vortex  in decades,  despite being 4th warmest year for the  Northern Hemisphere (a contradiction was it not for its not so vast size).   There has been ample evidence of a strong warming over sea ice although faint:

DMI 

2019 Surface temperatures between 80N an 90N degrees latitude, show an extreme push upwards of temperatures aligning to the 1958-2002 mean especially during the great melt summers.  Although it makes sense warmer advection occurs from vast open waters towards remnant sea ice,  the DMI summer temperature mean seems counterintuitive,  the mean of colder years from decades prior were warmer than during all time low sea ice extent summers,  but then again during 50's 60's and 70's sea ice field was laced with multiyear very thick ice islands,  it was a different cryo mini world on its own.  On these very thick ice floes existed summer time mini lakes,  all likely thermally stratified, with warmer water on it's surface, capable of increasing air temperatures well above 0 C at the 2 meter level.  With AGW 2019 sea ice field transformed to much younger multi year pack,  having had surface water draining more thoroughly avoiding great top of ice water buildups,  the summer average surface temperature can be cooler.  A more bare top of sea ice,  consisting of mainly ice - with a bit of snow -  may be influenced by the rule:   top of snow (ice) T*** is always colder or equal to surface temp  - (rule established by horizon refraction observations).  2 meter air temperatures above water on ice or open sea water would be the only reason why surface air can warm a lot more than 0,  after all sea ice does not exist at temperatures greater than  0 C.

     This leaves to the not so obvious conclusion - the atmosphere and sea water of the Northern Hemisphere has warmed since 2012 -  NASA would say so,  but the sea ice minima extent has still not shrunk below 2012.  Vast sea ice packs are rather not easily judged by extent alone,  but rather by very esoteric circulation patterns  and cloud albedo,  not necessarily always favorable for clearing the Arctic Ocean.  The circulation patterns were rather not good for greater dumping of sea ice during summers since 2012,  because of where the remainder sea ice twins with Greenland and causes a circulation pattern unfavorable to dump sea ice towards the North Atlantic.  A more open Arctic Ocean Cloud albedo increases mid-summer when there is a great deal more evaporation next to ice ( by more substantial open water and greater heat),  sea ice easily helps form low clouds and fog in such circumstances.   But the main extent numbers to watch are not only found at minima but at every other period as well:

   At any given point throughout the year,  sea ice extent since 2012 have been well below,  often historically lowest than this 1972-2018 average.  It is this fact which proves that the atmosphere has warmed substantially in a mere 7 years. WD October 5, 2019
     

Slowing global circulation, the least feared climate story

~   However the deadliest most destructive one
~  This is why sea ice and glaciers are important

    From the very successful  2019 mid April EH2r yearly Northern Hemisphere summer projection:

    The cyclone  over the Canadian Arctic Archipelago is currently with devastating winds and hardly moving:

          CMC September 16 2019 surface analysis,  somewhat similar to my projection in April 2019,
the North Pole High pressure was expected at end of September.  Given the current Arctic Ocean sea ice extent is what is left from the 2nd greatest melt in history (to date).  The left over Arctic basin pack  is creating a cold zone.  However the big news is slow circulation:

"The speed of tropical cyclones around the world has decreased globally by about 10 percent since 1949."

      Further South in the populated world,  this slowing is even more significant.   I have been observing this sluggish pace slow to a crawl,  particularly at the State of Texas latitude:
     

                 Sept 16  2019 evening NOAA GOES.    Hurricane Humberto slow motion displacement is jarring,    but look further West ,  off the coast of Texas,  no displacement at all.  This is a view of the future of weather in a warming world.   Encroaching earlier in later summer,  creating a longer lasting disaster period, with well known consequences,  Hurricane Harvey's $125 billion in damages had to be paid by someone,  namely increasing insurance premiums and taxes, by the common people.

        Once again the work here by EH2r research explains this planetary change,  the Polar Vortex extent is shrinking, this leaves its geographical imprint for weather circulation much diminished.   With the event horizon of the Vortex  reach not as wide,  all systems slow,  and some stall.  The key is measuring how cold the Arctic is particularly at winter's peak,  this was done every year since 2001 by measuring vertical sun disk sizes which were increasing from year to year, because the over all Arctic air became less and less dense.   But latest developments made sun disk vertical dimensions smaller,  since the center of the vortex is shrinking and getting colder nearest to Greenland,  where I measure the sun.  Of the latest 2 end of winters,  the vortex was surrounded by warmer air,  by this action it became more stable,  not traveling  a lot and far in the usual huge Arctic winter zone.  Of late,  the vortex is like a steady top spinning in place instead of a wildly gyrating wobbling one, insidiously creating winter's last stand smaller but more stable especially more fierce at its center,  this 'not moving' bit extends later  in time as well,  particularly for summer,   making long term forecasts easier,  especially for this writer.  WD September 17 2019

bye bye 2012 record course

~The path was set throughout  winter 2018-19
~Despite un-favorable cooler spring temperatures

  2012 King of melts is in serious trouble of reigning no more.  Largely because the entire Alaskan coast is way clear of sea ice in 2019 June 8 same day comparisons.  The reason for this was made over 18-19 winter same region being exceptionally warmer.  Therefore big melting 2019 head start.
This clearing favours serious melting despite certain to be switchover season weather,  the ice is now
set to melt wether the gyre current is seriously stalled or not.  Unlike 2018,  likely counterclockwise flowing broken pack heads towards open warmish water,  not an ice pack damn.  Not even super El-Nino warmish 2016 has a better melt.

  SWITCHOVER look.  June 8-9 CMC 12-18-00 and 06 UTC surface map,  with a Low over the AO gyre.  despite un-favorable dumping to North Atlantic,  there is less sea ice in Alaska North Pole quad than any other year.  WD June 9 2019

STALL; all Northern Hemisphere systems appear not to move, or pivot and wobble in place

~A likely mid summer scenario one month ahead of time

    CMC 2019 06/04 00, 06, 12 and 18 UTC.  The anticyclones throughout the Northern Hemisphere
exist in one stationary place, nothing too much out of the ordinary, but the cyclones wobble, pivot without much distance from one sequence to another.  Only the cyclone North of the UK appeared to move for a while and then stalled along with all the others.   This in a series of events, all predicted well in advance Mid-April just past: http://eh2r.blogspot.com/2019/04/2019-annual-end-of-spring-and-summer.html  this stagnant global circulation has been happening for a while,  not long after the collapse of the Canadian Arctic Archipelago prime coldest vortice within the Polar Vortex; http://eh2r.blogspot.com/2019/05/collapse-caa-cold-temperature-north.html,  circulation stalls may be considered a feature of July,  when weather reaches maximum high temperatures.  WD June 4, 2019

Early SWITCHOVER; a warming signal, slows the Fram Flow

~When Arctic cyclones are colder than anticyclones,  it is officially summer.
~2019 came 3 weeks earlier than 2018
~Disrupting an otherwise devastating output of sea ice through Fram Strait

Apparently OUT from nowhere a Cyclone appears North of Beaufort sea:

    A "see through"  cyclone appeared May 25 2019,  CMC NOAA visible capture.  This has undoubtedly slowed the gyre clockwise rotation,  it is a disrupter of Arctic summer from being bombarded with sun rays.  University of Wyoming 1000 mb prognosis (above),  notice this Low has temperatures colder than adjoining High pressure.   It is a true sign of summer, hence a switchover, from Anticyclones being coldest (winter) to Cyclones cooling the effects of a higher sun (summer).  The relative permanence of this scenario will dictate the outcome of sea ice extent at minima come late September.  The biggest factor is the radiative solar penetration of  "see through"  cyclones,  if they are warmer the more sun will penetrate,  prompting either a rapid devolution or a greater melting than otherwise a cloudier Low may give.   This switchover came much earlier than last year,  the current trends indicate a 3 week ahead in time on 2018 events,  either the disintegration of the main CAA vortice or 3 week earlier switchover definitely means a different outcome than last year. WD May 26,  May 28 (correction thanks Jim) 2019

Unrecognizable in 21 years, warming evolution of the Northern world climate

~Comparing major sea ice melt years  reveals a much mangled atmosphere and icescape 

~The Arctic Atmosphere is very closely linked with sea ice morphology

~2019 outlook for sea ice has never been more grim

Arctic winters end in late April,  so it is appropriate to look at winters imprint on the Global Northern Hemisphere:

NOAA daily composites,  the real imprint of winter can be found right after peak cooling period, May 1-7 offers a glimpse:

1998 the then warmest year in history, really marked the start of visual from space Arctic Sea ice extent decline.   Observe the massive North Pole centric CTNP (Cold Temperature North Pole),  this was more usual when Arctic Ocean was covered by a much thicker sea ice canopy.

2007   The first really massive melt was just ahead, note the missing CTNP.  And note as well the faint outline of two vortices one over each continent. 

2012 the largest sea ice extent drop in history was to come,  note the early ridging bands taking shape within a much shrunken Polar Vortex compared to 1998.  These apparent waves or bands have a tendency to bring up warmer cyclones from the South or tend to create "Omega Blocks"  with persistent stable anticyclones.  Note the diminished size of the Polar Vortex as well.  

2016 with the biggest El-Nino in history just past,  a great year to compare with 1998.   We can identify the wavier appearance of the Polar Vortex, along with "rogue" vortices ,  smaller but colder, quite a ways displaced from the North Pole as with 1998.  The ice in 2016 was quite thinner than 1998,  hence more heat from Arctic Ocean tendency to split the main coldest vortice in 2,  usually moving them Southwards on each continents of the Northern  Hemisphere. 

2019 has the most disfigured Polar Vortex of all,  almost with 3 distinct ridges having within   smaller colder vortices again over the continents,  The Jet Stream was equally wavy for most of winter just past.  These ridges tend to accelerate cyclones Northwards or keep anticyclones very steady.  

   The most distinguishable feature between 1998 and 2019 is the disintegration or crumpling of the Polar Vortex coming along, not by coincidence,  with the drastically diminished presence of sea ice in volume and extent.  The term "Climate Change"  is now literally readily observable not only in the atmosphere but on and in the oceans.

     The end result of all this change can be observed by the rapid flow of much thinner broken up sea ice,  which if we are fortunate, can flow within the Arctic Basin,  but any massive favorable weather pattern may reproduce a bluer than ever Arctic Ocean, never seen before wide expanses of water,  at any given melt season.   It is not just a matter of time when there will be less than 1 million kilometer square of sea ice come September,  it is a matter of luck that it did not happen,  the greatest ally of ice as well are summer clouds, but if the temperature dew point spread widens from warming,  thinning clouds and or especially vanishing  ice enhanced fog will allow a far greater solar input.  Chances for 2019 having the worse melt in history are extremely favorable because the winter imprint of cold was lacking and there is not much sea ice cohesion left, again it is best if there was a summer El-Nino,  despite the counter intuitive warming El-Nino implies,  without summer clouds the North Pole will be a sea faring waypoint.  WD May 18, 2019 

Clouded Global heat transfers: from equator to North Pole

~Winter heat transfer between ENSO and the North Pole was usually in tandem with sea ice volume and extent.  La-Nina more sea ice,  El-Nino less sea ice. 

~Current 2019 Arctic sea ice extent is often very similar or worser than 2016,  which had a January with a very powerful El-Nino,  a fascinating fact. 

      In Arctic pure darkness of the long night,  only clouds prevents a massive cooling,  stopping very thick accretions of sea ice: 

      January 2016 equatorial Pacific spawned more clouds all over the world. In the Arctic this meant 

less sea ice,  it was so.  January 2018 had a small La-Nina,  it meant less Arctic clouds,  more sea ice,  it was so,  but not by much.  Same story January 2019,  a neutral ENSO or very light El-Nino,  less clouds,  implies more sea ice than same period 2016,  not so,  current 2019 sea ice extent is competitive or often smaller than 2016.   Less sea ice with a cooler than 2016 planet,  a contradiction,  translation:  heat was transferred to the North mainly in Arctic sea water, over time it has given a net increase in Arctic Ocean warmth.   Despite favorable conditions for ice accretion,  sea ice volume goes down.  Creating a feedback loop,  spring and summer sun has more dark water to warm. 

The Arctic atmosphere merely reflects this current heat scenario:

NOAA daily composites 600 mb temperatures, a very close representation of average temperature of the entire troposphere.  Spanning 4 to 11 May,  with respect to Polar Vortex strength,  2016 closely resembles 2019.  Yet 2019 has had nowhere the same heat input from the Equator.  2018 had a very strong Canadian Arctic Archipelago vortice within the Polar Vortex,  this was caused by a reduction of clouds and heat over the Northern American continent,  2018 sea ice extent was still reduced, prevented the Polar Vortex from being much fiercer.  However, the story here is the dwindling sea ice despite favorable conditions which should prompt a recovery.  The heat,  it seems,  is well dispersed throughout all the oceans of the planet, in turn,  extra heat within the Arctic system is reshaping the climate of the entire Northern Hemisphere.  WD May 14, 2019

Post Collapse III, flipping the summer forecast to opposite outlook

~North America's initial weather appears as EH2r annual summer projection
~North American great plains warm as a result of late April CTNP disintegration

  We remember NOAA's cooler in the central plains May June July temperature outlook:

Since EH2r expected not as strong as last year strongest CTNP vortice,  2019 vortice withered away remarkably fast,  this made the Great Plains not as cool as both NOAA and ECMWF suggested (here was EH2r criticism).

       One reasoning behind not agreeing with the great models outlook was the Canadian Main CTNP (Cold Temperature North Pole) did not have a strong prolonged build up similar to winter of 2017-18.  The initial sun disk readings taken in February to Mid-March 2019 were in 4th place warmest,  then vertical sun disks dramatically shrunk in size severely reducing average elevation decimal levels sun disk sizes to last place,  I was aware of monitoring a smaller vortice within the Tropospheric Polar Vortex,  smaller vortices are usually colder.  This changed my estimate of summer climate to come, from similar to last year, to different,  warmer in most regions.

   The latest GFS short term forecasts call for the opposite of the longer term outlook above:

   If the main driver of weather in North America weakens,  so does the Eastward circulation,  this means that land surfaces have greater chances to dry up, especially in the middle of the continent.
ENSO is still a main concern,  this weather may change,  but still ENSO lingers,  hesitates to take a turn up or down on the warm side.  This latest weather picture may last and build up much hotter. WD May 11 2019

POST collapse II, models are getting the picture

~There seems to have been two responses to main CTNP  vortice collapse
~One immediate, very fascinating,  one was slower movement of systems
~The other longer term,  a picture of things to come

When a deep cold supreme vortice within the Arctic Tropospheric Polar Vortex collapses, it seems there may be an immediate response on a grand scale, a shock to the system if you like. Similar to center of a hurricane eye wall reorganization. The immediate response seems fuzzy , but I suspect a sudden but very brief warming, followed by a more obvious slowing of circulation.  Of which,  wherever you are in the Northern Hemisphere,  the good or bad weather prolongs a bit more.
Toronto for instance,  is under the clouds along a good chunk of Eastern North America,    this will not stop suddenly,  but will gradually fall under the spell of clearer dry skies (as most of snow vanishes completely further North).

  For May 14  GFS changed its mind 3 times within 3 days of forecasting,  finally settling for a significant warming North of Ontario with a lot warming in Central USA.  Looking further:

By the 21st, the forecast Makes North Central Canada as warm as Florida while the clouds cool the central coasts of North America, this is a bit of a precursor of the climate to come. WD May 9, 2019

Post collapse circulation model responses, ECMWF seems a bit more on top of it

  Already May 6 Toronto forecast will be off with other models based forecasts,  underestimated at least 4 degrees colder.  But ECMWF short term is responding well to recent massive Arctic warm up.  What is left of the Canadian coldest vortice is more centered in the SW Arctic,  a place already with less snow on the ground.  Is set to extermination if stable there. 

600 mb temperatures forecast would be more ideal,  nothing is perfect!  But ECMWF has some prowess,  already displaying a greater warming throughout North America for the next 10 days. 


GFS not so fast on its feet:

           Temperatures upwards not as warmed as ECMWF but warming.  I got the impression the models don't weigh as much importance to the Arctic as they should.  WD May 6 2019