Tuesday, December 22, 2015

Record shattering solstice temperatures causation: El-Nino? No . AGW ? No. Warming seas less Arctic sea ice? No.... All three? Yes

~World wide warming strictly attributed to El-Nino is quite misleading

These winter solstice  headlines:


Winter solstice 2015 may be as warm as this year's summer solstice, Met Office says


Weekend Warmth Breaks 142-Year-Old Record Across Eastern US


Record-breaking warmth on Christmas Eve? Here's where


   All these and more countries report very warm beginning of winter weather.  

    NOAA   also recorded warmer weather for much of the Arctic,  China/Mongolia Finland/NW Russia.  And the Spitzbergen NE from Greenland area.  

      Most TV reports cite El-Nino as the single cause for this warming.  Which is only a partial factor of attribution: 

NOAA US mean El-Nino temperature anomaly during winter  profile looks mot much like the current US temperature anomaly map as presented on the previous figure.  If Arctic sea ice is thinner 
with the oceans warmer,   the jet stream would bend elsewhere,  as it does,  giving a different anomaly result.  

The met office worldwide El-Nino warming tendency,  also does not look like the current  temperature anomaly presented above on top.    Especially for NW Russian and Eastern North America and China anomalies.  

   It is more reasonable to attribute this warming to a synergistic mix from well known causations .
None can stand alone as the single attribution for these solstice events.  But, thinner sea ice, warmer oceans (not only in the equatorial Pacific) and the warmest year in history:  

NASA GISS D-N +.84 C   for 2015,  exceeds 1998 +.63 C despite 1998 being as strong or stronger El-Nino than current 2015

.   On top of that, the Northern Hemisphere NASA GISS D-N is a staggering +1.1 C as opposed to 1998 +0.71 C.    

         This article is for TV Met presenters to be a bit more researched,  before they blame one cause or another for a mega event.   The most truthful simple statement would be:  

                                                             The world is warming. 

wd December 22, 2015