Tuesday, March 5, 2024

Unprecedented Kara sea ice retreat at Novaya Zemlya, when winter cold should reign supreme.

 ~At least since 2004,  which highly likely means since historical records began.  

~Whilst 2024 maxima hovers about 14 million square Kilometers , right near the lowest extent ever.

University Bremen AMSR2 sea ice concentration  February 24 to March 4 2024:

Now March 4's 2004 to 2024,  2024 is the only one with water South of Novaya Zemlya Island,  at or near Maxima extent,  a fast retreat in the works.  Likely by the nature of sea ice in the sea of Kara,  thinner,  weaker,  not what it use to be not very long ago, not able to survive warmer weather of late.   Early days 2024 already suggest a record year of sea ice events.  WD March 5, 2024

Sunday, February 18, 2024

NW Canadian Arctic archipelago littoral thin ice surviving tidal ridging, one more never seen before event

 ~As a result of overall thinner sea ice combined with lesser extent at minima,  the Archipelago coast has a new look

~A totally new Arctic Ocean feature, an introduction to the future shape of winter sea ice to come.

January 9 2023,  a polarview not unlike preceding years, perhaps with some thinner ice compared to the 80's, ridging near the coast can be clearly seen along with tidal frozen shore leads.  The Islands of the arhipelago, have different topography,  Borden Island (top left), Elef Ringnes 2nd from left,  Meighen Island is the little one next to mountainous  Fjord rich Axel Heiberg extreme right.

Impossible scenery December 23 2023.  there is a wide open area of very thin sea ice all along the same coast.  Not a fierce storm temporary feature.  Thin "black" ice was there for quite some time. It was predicted that the coast would be freer seai ice at minima,  this new sea ice was likely frozen in place sometimes in October.   

Very peculiar new sea ice,  never  seen so wide offshore lasting very long.

 Lasting the entire month of Januar 2024.  Remarkable,  in the past, Arctic Ocean sea ice would have crushed this newer thinner shore sea ice in a matter of days.

A closer look loop of January 23 to February 16 2024, reveals the tidal breaking of all ice, new and old, moving in unison in the direction of the Arctic Ocean tidal gyre.  There were several breaks similar to this. Thinner sea ice would break easier.  However, the lack of ridging seems permanent,  indicating a significant change in sea ice dynamics, this is quite unfamiliar, of course expected when the icescape features are fundamentally very different in overall thickness along with major weather pattern changes. WD February 18, 2024 


Thursday, February 15, 2024

Warm 2023-2024 Worldwide shrinking of winter

 ~600 mb pressure level closely indicates the temperature of the entire atmosphere

~ Current warming undeniably has changed weather patterns everywhere, strange or rare events are normal and common

~In essence, predicting long range weather will be even more difficult because we never been this warmed.  Forecasting chaos is a safer bet.  

GONE is thick sea ice driven cooling over the Arctic ocean,  equally giving no Cold Temperature North Pole at the North Pole, as once was not so long ago.  NEW patterns are a plenty;  NEW by-Polar CTNP's over the continents,  NEW deep warming incursions over the Arctic Ocean, NEW shrinking of the entire winter Zone for the Northern Hemisphere, finally CTNP's can dominate on one continent only, leaving the other with hibernating bees waking up mid winter.  It is now quite foreseeable to visualize the future of winter with a much warmer Arctic Ocean zone cutting off the buildup of strong by-continental anticyclones shivering most of the world.  

     Next few months cooling and likely less of it will determine the coming weather for summer and fall. At present sea ice survives because of clouds, less coverage emperils the white cooling cap of the Polar North. Earth cooling system is hanging by a veil of fine water droplets and ice crystals along with a much thinner sea ice cover. Lets hope Polar clouds keep on reflecting sun rays to space,  otherwise more weather chaos will ensue.  Cloud are vey difficult to predict when moisture in Earth's atmosphere is on a world wide increase.  The tipping point will occur when air temperatures reduce the formation of strati clouds,  from there the end of summer sea ice will be,  from that point winter will be split in two smaller areas. WD February 15 2024   


Wednesday, January 17, 2024

+2 degree world diminutive Polar Vortex, stretched South, not because it was colder in the Arctic.

 ~Latest North American Polar Vortex was preceded by a huge North Pacific cyclone, effectively lowering Southwards the jet stream range.

~ Mild winter show of 2023-24 just had a Polar Vortex interruption which should be short lived,  because the Northern Hemisphere winter build up is very small.

    I think the weather medias are having a better understanding of the Polar Vortex phenom,  excellent,  but still don't understand how it is created,  how it behaves,  and especially where the cold air comes from in the first place. Cold air can be created South of the Arctic just as much as in the Arctic.  All is required is clear air at night, a low sun during the day and snow on the ground.  What makes the vortex apparently move are these 3 factors,  it is not created by the Arctic atmosphere.  If you know Earth Geodesy,  the Arctic is a far smaller region than further South,  it can't account for all the cold  covering much bigger land areas many times its size.  Broadcasted like "Arctic dome,  Arctic blast" is misleading.  What really happened of late is a huge North Pacific cyclone moved towards Alaska, this squeezed the small vortex buildup further South Eastwards,  which onto itself built step by step cooling Southwards (inducing High pressure genesis).  This is what most TV weather presenters call the Arctic blast,  but this cold is homegrown, literally over your head. The sun altitude below 30 degree elevation at noon is rather weak,  so Austin Texas,  with current 38 degree sun elevation at noon,  is not a bastion of heat,  has the sun below 30 degrees elevation for most of the day, but is basically at the last step in this Southward cooling process,  until the physical conditions that created this deep freezing disappear, like a nice warm breeze from the Gulf of Mexico.  The susceptibility of the smaller Polar Vortex to be morphed, and therefore cause the stepping process has been documented right here on several occasions,  when a place like Michigan has had the coldest air of the winter, colder than the Arctic, Siberia etc.    

U of Maine Climate Analyzer,   17 January 2024.  What appears to be very cold, is not, the small Arctic has a huge warming anomaly (white Globe),  while Arctic surface temperatures are still colder than most of the USA (reddish Globe),  so much for an Arctic blast . Extreme cooling is a normal winter process especially when a High pressure system sluggishly moves Eastwards. However 15 C Arctic warming anomaly is not normal when not just one day event,  most of the Arctic winter so far has been extraordinarily warmer.  Again warmest ever,  a decades old song that just cant stop repeating itself.  WD January 17 2024