Saturday, April 28, 2018

2018 annual spring summer projection by mainly unorthodox underutilized optical methods PART 2

~  Past winter prognosis ,  remarkable contradictions.

The great Cold Temperature North Pole  vortex of Western Canadian Arctic Archipelago.  

  We start at winter end,  when contrary to present time most of the dark season Arctic was warmer and cloudy.  Somehow the heat influence grasp of North Atlantic cyclones nearly constantly circumnavigating North Greenland from the East fell short of South of the 70th parallel,   somehow the upper air got colder in an important sector of the Arctic,  this cold air aggregate sprung out in force in March,  it had multiple density layers causing amazing sunsets :
I have filmed a few Wegener blank strips over the years,  this one was entirely complicated.    This kiss of the mirror sun type,  had amazing gravity waves in the lower frame, shown here ascending with the inverse lower sun disk limb.  Up to 4 gravity waves mystically appeared bright adjoining the deep dark,  blank zone, implying ducted light which got scattered out to extinction by the very long distance travelled, up to or in excess of 2000 kilometers. 

   Stacked Green flashes vanish as fast as they were created.  Sunsets were for the most part shifted Northwards in March compared to previous 10 years,  with one setting at -2.3 degrees below the horizon,  a very rare recent 8 year occasion, much more common in 2002-2005 period,  the last time this happened was once in 2014 and once in 2010 .   April sunsets disappeared slightly Southwards than average.   The near surface air in April was prominently adiabatic.
  An apparent contradiction,  this March 31 2018 sun disk vertical diameter is large, 24.90 arc minutes,  at an altitude close to the horizon,  2018 horizon sun disks tended to be vertically thicker near the horizon,  much diminished than average well above.  This described the structure of the atmosphere,  warmer very near the ground, much much colder in the upper atmosphere,  in fact sun disk data was astounding:

   What is the score?  
                                                     Levels @ #1  Year   Ranking   
                                          19   2016 First Place
14 2015 2
11 2006 3
9 2005 4
9 2009 4
9 2010 4
9 2011 4
9 2013 4
8 2012 5
5 2017 6
4 2004 7
4 2007 8
4 2008 9
4 2014 10
2 2002 11
1 2003 12
                    0 2018 ? 13 dead last

            With more than 500 vertical sun disk  measurements within 120 decimal levels,  taken by high resolution telescope photos from -0.9 to 10.9 degrees astronomical elevations.   Mostly with March and April data,  February was cloudy.  This 2018 '0' result is amazing,  it implies a very cold Upper Atmosphere,  in fact the coldest since the start of vertical sun disk measurements, mainly to the West of central Canadian Arctic Archipelago ,  a location not measured by soundings.  Not one of 120 possible decimal elevation levels average sun disk diameters was all time highest.   This forced me to look at the bottom of rankings vertical dimensions results for the first time ever,  there is something peculiar about them,  many occurred during La-Nina trending periods but mostly with neutral or neutral trending  end of winters:  


     El-Nino  or El-Nino trending periods tend to expand vertical sun disks ,  this leads me to conclude that there is a strong causality between vertical sun disk dimensions and ENSO variations.    Brings attention to 2018 ENSO direction?  It seems that it will be a neutral ENSO summer.   The larger question would be whether Arctic sun disks can infer the temperature of a large part of Pacific equator,  it appears so.   

   First Melt 2018 

           As reported beforeFirst Melt 2018 was earliest in history,  but with the most frequent resumption of sea ice horizons to astronomical 0 degrees elevation afterwards.  This directly implies all time lowest sea ice thickness,  actually close to it with actual auger measurements,  this was largely achieved by extra snow precipitation as mentioned above,  it snowed during most of the dark season due in large part to Southern cyclones directly hitting the Archipelago from the continent (mainly Pacific Ocean in origin,  with one long lasting quasi-stationary Hudson Bay event) , or by  North Atlantic Lows circumnavigating Northern Greenland  .     When Astronomical Horizon is attained the sea ice bottom may melt due to the thermally neutral balance at sea ice to air interface,  in other words no loss of heat towards space due to top of sea ice temperature being equal to surface air.  The more frequent and longer  Astronomical Horizon occurs above the sea ice horizon the less likely a great sea ice accretion will occur.  

  Near Refraction Observations

     Amazing results again with the near refraction areas,  almost all winter with very weak refraction heights, hardly having significant variations,  in darkness just as much as during sunlight periods,   this has been a continuing increasing trend going back to 2010,  implying a change in temperature structure of the lower atmosphere towards a more unstable one.

  Structure of a very cold stable Upper Arctic Atmosphere

     Data gathered by the usual means added to optical refraction techniques revealed a peculiar structure of a very cold Upper Atmosphere late winter 2018.  It has mainly an adiabatic surface to air interface spanning up to 100 meters or so,  then has a stable sometimes strong inversion,   increasing the temperature profile to a warm maxima usually below 850 mb,  or 1000 meters in altitude, after maxima peak adiabatic profile resumes till the tropopause.  Refraction sun disk observations suggest a deep cooling above the profile maxima,  not often measured by traditional means due to scarcity of Arctic stations.  End of winter 2018 vertical sun disk diameters  above 2 degrees elevation have been exceptionally consistently smaller than 2002-2017 average.   Especially at higher than 10 degrees elevation,  a very rare event,  not seen since 2002,  following a prolonged very cold La-Nina which ensued after 1998 then strongest in history El-Nino.    1998 -2001 La-Nina was so cold 2003  disk observations did not recover in expanded sun diameters even during 2002-2003 mild El-Nino.   Near surface deep inversions reduce vertical sun disk diameters below especially 2 degrees elevation having at least 19.4  atmospheric thickness and more,  this means that at the number of density layers bending sun rays upwards increase 19 fold,  a prominent near surface inversion would give the impression of a very cold atmosphere,  but that is not necessarily so at higher elevations.  Above 10 degrees elevation the number of increased density layers are only 6 fold more,   above that altitude surface inversions don't affect sun disk diameters very much.  Shorter vertical diameters above 10 degrees gives a very significant cold atmosphere signal.  Reverse wise,  closer to near the horizon,  expanded sun disks imply a warmer adiabatic or isothermal temperature profile.   The often observed adiabatic surface interface may only be from thinner sea ice radiating more heat towards space.  WD April 28 2018  

Friday, April 27, 2018

2018 annual spring summer projection by mainly unorthodox underutilized optical methods

~Stunning sun disk results reveal the entire coming Northern Hemisphere circulation with ease.
~2018 will not be warmest year in history,  not even close
~Sea ice is due to take a massive Arctic dipole and steady cyclone periods during same melt season
~The return of somewhat normal CAA Arctic Cold Temperature North Pole not literally seen since 2002


For a change we start this years projection with Northern Hemisphere Global Circulations by season

    There is a great area of colder air,  in the C1 region,  mainly in the Canadian Arctic Archipelago,   it was and is remarkably steady and well structured.  C1 is where the CTNP,  Cold Temperature North Pole resides, not simply in the air but by marking an actual temperature footprint on land and sea,  in a feedback loop.   Vertical sun disk measurements results  ,  acquired between February and April of mainly the Western from center CAA have been shocking, not one mean  decimal elevation levels has been above average,  0,  with more than 500 observations  to date,  I never encountered a  0 result before with respect and compared to thousands of sun disks sizes acquired from 2002-2017.  It may be said to be a significant sigma event.  But it does not mean that the entire Arctic is returning to normal colder temperatures,  it is more like a consolidation of cold air in one region,  part of the fascinating mystery of smaller areas of cold temperatures being particularly colder than a wider spanning area.    This coldest zone affects the weather of the entire Northern Hemisphere.   Is like a higher gravitation zone with planets,  cyclones and anticyclones being planets,  but with a different
spacial cosmic ray setting,  ie land and sea affecting the structure done by the gravity exercised by the coldest zone.     For the Canada and US it means coldest in the West warmest in the East weather.
For the Arctic,  the coldest C1 maintains the Arctic ocean current Gyre by sending some of its coldest air feeding the hovering wobbling anticyclone mainly after interactions with cyclones on its east side of C1.  The same goes for C2,  the second cold air zone gravitas center ,   in the Barents sea area.   The often present anticyclone North  of Norway, an artifact of C2,  will make NW Europe cooler,  all while blocking North Atlantic cyclones from warming and clouding over the Arctic Ocean.    North Pacific area cold air collapse was a long spanning event caused throughout the entire winter,  present Bering sea ice scarce and decimated was the imprint of this. C3 was often a meek shadow of Siberian self throughout winter,  therefore more cyclonic intrusions for Alaska,  which has likely experienced one of their warmest winters in history, not so warm spring.

No doubt makes C1 area again the center of cold temperature Gravity ,  but the planetary system players switch roles.  In the Arctic,   a summer Low pressure becomes a cold air player ,  a High pressure a warm one,  therefore as with each year summer since 2012 great sea ice melt,  2013 to 2017,  gains a lesson learned,  cold air lies where cyclones be.  They are usually not substantial,  I have documented them as "see through" cyclones since they have fewer clouds.  A Low over the Arctic Ocean Gyre area will benefit by C1 cold source though,  therefore cold Lows will descend Western Canada,  Eastern Canada will gain heat from continental Highs,   sometimes called Bermuda Highs when gaining the Atlantic.  Lows should strike SW Europe at times,   as C2 fades,  some North Atlantic cyclones will cool off over the Arctic Ocean,  adding to the North Pacific intrusions.  The North Pacific often High pressure zone is the result in part from the steady presence of Arctic Ocean gyre cyclone and also the warmth acquired during the entire winter just past.  It is during this June-July period again when the sea ice melts slows,  because cold air in Arctic summer is a great cloud saver,  they don't evaporate as quick as with anticyclones.  Sea ice in the Pacific quadrant of the Pole will be decimated still especially next to Russia.  We can see the Polar jet stream in green not being much of a player further South in the US,  to the benefit of likely lesser tornadoes.

 August September 2018:
What happens when there is only one cold cell left?  If not completely faded,  the entire planetary weather circulation system becomes smaller,  but again the roles of the 'planets" ,  the Highs and Lows,  switch back to their more winter like modes.  It is in early August when we will  be able to evaluate if the Arctic sea ice will have a new all time low extent in September.  I think not so, but it will be very low sea ice extent,  I think that ridging against the CAA coast will pack Arctic Ocean  sea ice substantially, revealing an emaciated state it was under disguise by more scattered spreading from the continuous past years onslaught of further melting ,  not always captured well by remote sensing algorithms.  The North East sea route should open first and expand to be near or at the North Pole, an amazing sight for those who know and for the world to behold,  the Northwest passage larger Straits will be clogged with sea ice coming from the Arctic Ocean ,  finally hurricanes may strike East coast of US and Canada because the CTNP will reform late August,  a magnet for Northwards cyclones from the East coast especially when very warm cyclones approach and reshape the Greenland High to extend Southwards.   Western North America will finally have a summer,  Eastern very hot but wet and stormy.  WD April 27, 2018


Friday, April 20, 2018

Small but coldest airmass in 20 years moves towards Alaska, likely reinforcing the Arctic Ocean gyre High

~Optically significant event of very cold stable air mass centered in the West of Canadian Arctic Archipelago was made to move by warm cyclone interaction.

~Most significant coldest upper air measured by vertical sun disk method in 20 years, had remarkably stable properties lasting at least 4 weeks. 

       A steady area of cold air kept  sun disks shrunken  for nearly a month, but not near the surface,  this particular nature of steadiness is interesting,  but the level of cold was not seen since 2002,
which was several years after massive 1998 El-Nino,  now likewise several years after massive El-Nino peaking end of 2015,  we see the result of steady La-Nina influence of less clouds,  particularly away from influx of  Northern moisture from frequent North Atlantic warm cyclone injections,  the dry air it seems,  survived mainly to the West and South of central CAA.   The West CTNP  (Cold Temperature North Pole) vortex  just recently got displaced Westwards towards Alaska:

We see CAA very cold vortex, a zone of clear air, been assaulted by massive cyclone from the Southwest,  in fact the CTNP vortex dragged the cyclone Northeastwards,  but it is as significantly deeply cold  as any in the distant past,   what we literally see is this cold air moving westwards towards Alaska in less than a day.   CMC IR animation above comprises pictures from April 18 to Early April 20 2018.  

  Although the cold zone was moving Westward,  surface temperatures did not seem to reflect so,  in particular because of clear air sun warming as the day progressed from 12 18 00 and 06 UTC , seen here as the cyclone progressed Northwards (extreme right).  In addition this cold zone had strange features of sun disks more compressed in the upper atmosphere rather than near the horizon,  this cold atmospheric area had a complex upper air profile, more adiabatic near the surface, with very cold temperatures  likely above 850 mb.   Next day in morning we see where it moved has already  changed the weather  :

The entire area surface air has cooled further,  CMC April 20 2018  12z.   But rather the larger influence of a stable mass of cold atmosphere would be with consolidation of the Gyre High:

   CMC 72 hours forecast based April 20 2018 at 00z.    This forecast increased the anticyclone strength a bit ,  perhaps off by 5 to 10 mb,  since the cold zone observed optically was never really measured by upper air soundings,  it is a known uncertain player in a general circulation pattern really significant for sea ice, the Arctic Ocean Gyre High is a major contributor in reducing sea ice volume especially during spring and summer.  The peculiar stable nature of the observed cold zone should  not be underestimated,    this gyre High may last quite a long time.  WD April 20, 2018