Saturday, April 29, 2023

2023 spring summer fall major weather patterns projection by unorthodox means, map projections

 ~Not quite 2022  more like 2007 spring and 2012 August

C is Cold Temperature North Pole,  in green is the jet stream,  dominant locations of cyclones and anticyclones are placed,  the latter means more often than not you will see a High or a Low on the coming weather maps.  

    May to June 21,  2 CTNP zones,  the Ellesmere Island one stronger of late,  but the real cold  imprint was from Northeastern Siberian CTNP's dominating during  much of the winter.  The Arctic Basin Gyre switchover will occur late,  at around the solstice,  which means a great potential strong melt North of Beaufort sea but this will be slowed by Cyclonic clouds.    Rainy on the Northwest North American coast,   but somewhat not diluvial since the great SST North Pacific warm blob is smaller than recent previous years.  Northern Europe would have the benefit of clouds as opposed to the Mediterranean shores baking.   
     June 21 till mid September, sea ice direct sun melt reprieve with the Low pressure mainly hanging on top of the Arctic Ocean Gyre, along with North Pacific in provenance moisture,  giving clouds,  mitigating an otherwise disastrous start of the melt season.  With steady stagnating weather over North America, where its hot will persist hot,  where its moist will be soggier longer.   It will be stubbornly cloudy for most of North of Russia Arctic ocean shores  throughout the sea ice melt season.    However disastrously hot over most of Siberia at some distance from the Arctic Ocean.   Likewise extreme heat in Europe and North Africa.  Not to be as bad  in North America,  because of the sea surface high temperature blob of the North Pacific injecting moisture eventually mixing with Gulf of Mexico evaporation for the East coast, proximity to El-Nino will add up favoring more clouds as well. Even with very slow to not moving systems,  multiple heat waves will abound.  Along with a very  slow moving hurricanes and typhoons most having great strength ,  fortunately not as frequently landing to shore,  with hurricanes and typhoons mainly wandering aimlessly over very warmed up ocean sectors,  but those who do reach land will  not be pleasant,  with not much  returning to normal after passage.  

The ultimate test of understanding our present climate,  sea ice projections.   

        Ever so difficult to be exact,  more so than any climate projection attempts,  is the sea ice extent at minima ,  usually  mid-September,  here is a look at last years projection adjoined with 2022 actual JAXA extent on September 15: 
2022 projection failed in morphology on the Russian Quadrant from the North Pole ,  not so much in over all extent.  I am more confident about this years shape of sea ice minima perimeter to come:

The 2023 minima should have finally less sea ice than 2012,  despite the clouds
from El-Nino and the North Pacific blob, primarily because there will be a 2012 cyclonic repeats in August, and since the over all sea ice is thinner than ever.    The NW Archipelago shores should appear more open at times because of the effects from these Arctic Ocean  Gyre hovering cyclones,  despite sea ice tendency of piling up or ridging on the archipelago coast  by the tides.  WD April 29. 2023

Friday, April 28, 2023

2023 spring summer fall major weather patterns projection by unorthodox means

~Unusual winter CTNP pattern has created a ripe sea ice-scape for a 2007 melt scenario.

~The North Pacific high sea temperature anomaly has been tamed, sort of,  mainly on North West American continent coast

~Stable temperatures will start early for most of the US and Canada

~While rains will be confined again to extreme NW Europe

Sea ice First Melt, a sign of 2016 like melting 

2 major factors have permeated vast swats of sea ice, one is a lesser snow cover, the other except for a brief period, was a milder High Arctic winter. It is complicated, less snow cover means thicker sea ice accretion, but this was largely tempered by the milder winter in total darkness.  This makes the cold sea ice core not susceptible to cause significant horizon refraction, but until warmer spring temperatures happened.    Therefore, we have a first year ice likely encouraging a more rapid melt, snow conduction cools the melting process a lot, bereft of strong snow albedo,  new year sea ice will vanish quicker.

    First sea ice bottom melt can be detected when the astronomical horizon height is equal to the sea ice horizon, it basically tells the melting rate for later in spring and summer.  

   Last 9 years comparison results includes 2023 next to 2016,  a great sea ice melt year.   There is great potential for the new sea ice to vanish quickly,  given future sunny conditions,   which is determined by additional means,  so it goes like this:


   2021 had a lot of snow on top of sea ice, it is a great factor in saving it from melting fast.    2023 had mainly new sea ice in the observation field, melt pond indicator should be weak given none abundant snow cover not only here but everywhere.  

Vertical sun disk diameters, what is the score?

Maximum decimal expanded vertical sun disks per year: 


2018 2019 2020 2003 2022 2002 2023 2004 2007 2008 2014 2011

  0           0           0           1            1            2              2             4            4            4           4          5

2017 2012 2021 2009 2010 2013 2005 2006 2015 2016

  5            6          6           8            8           8              9           10           13           19

      2023 was done with 550 sun disk measurements,  from 119 elevation decimal levels,  with observation period from late February to end of April.   2023 results are in the same modern era of the recent great Cold Temperature North Pole displacement, largely hovering to the Northwards, highly concentrated in the North Baffin to Ellesmere Island area of late.  The greatest cooling was determined by refraction measurements especially above 5 degrees altitude, which matches to where Green House gas induced cooling should exist, upwards from the mid layer of the atmosphere, this data is very compelling,  as the surface warms,  the near horizon sun disks expand along with sunsets shifting Northwards,  while the upper mid layer and above cools, compressed sun disks happen,  with literally multiple thousands disk measurements confirming this.   2016 was the last year when colder air was less centralized within the Polar Vortex, up to that year the High Arctic atmosphere cold air was more geographically spread out and homogenized.   Since after 2016 the Polar Vortex shrank in geography, became highly stable over the said smaller portion of the High Arctic.  Sun disk measurements have lost the ability to predict Global temperatures since that year as well.   But knowing this gives a better idea of how long the CTNP would subsist into spring.  2018 to 2020 had a very strong frozen area over the Canadian High Arctic. This withered a bit in 2021, only to continue in strength in 2022 and 2023.   Its best looking at sun disks between the years 2018-2023, 2023 had the second warmest CTNP at the coldest core of the Polar Vortex, a sign,  the stable extreme but smaller cold zone is warming year by year.   

Massive Sunset Field shift

       EH2r sunset monitoring had the largest field shift in sunset tardiness,  whereas the West,  the traditional tardiness quadrant,  became tame,  and the Northwest  had very late sunsets for the first time ever.  One at 92.54 Zenith angle and some 7 degrees Northwards compared to previous records going back to 2001,  there were others up to 3 degrees azimuth Northwards,  huge numbers,   in the past they were very predictable and tame compared to the Western field.  This basically  infers a very rapid warming of the ground and sea ice,  due to lack of  snow and no deeply entrenched in the ground or ice winter cooling during the long night.  

Fata Morgana of Cape Sheridan hill, never seen before in 37 years.  23 of which were intensely observed.   


     Part of April 7 sunset , 2.54 degrees below the horizon, 7.5  degrees to the Northwards from multiple past steady observations,  equivalent of 15 sun disks place one next to the other.   Both sun and sea ice horizon line were highly raised by strong  inversion,  this was never recorded or seen since 2001,  the ground surface appears darker,  with rock ridges mixed with patchy snow coverage.  

     This is particularly what Climate Change literally looks like,  the optical effects of Global Warming in a place far away from any industry or urban development,  as far away as you can imagine, this Arctic land is becoming and looking like a different world........   Map projections in the next article.  WD April 28, 2023

Wednesday, April 5, 2023

April 5 2023 sunset, rapid surface air cooling by sea ice and permafrost.

 ~It likely was a mix,  warmed up thinner sea ice with little snow cover rapidly cooled surface air,  but also on land (the appearing red flash), not having so much snow as well, warmed during a sunny day with light winds,  with permafrost boosted cooling of interface air at sunset.  

    Must invert the GIF's for proper perspective. It has been a strange sunset season,  mainly influenced by the least snow cover in many years.  Top permafrost was vulnerable for a great cooling,  however winter past was mainly warmer than usual,  with only a few weeks of deep freezing hovering about  -40 C.  As a result we have had no very rapid rebound cooling on the surfaces,   until air temperatures got warmer while permafrost and sea ice steady peak cold temperature layers became prominent compared to air temps,  exacerbating stronger thermal inversions....    In other words,  it is starting to be interesting late in the season,  while it was very dull earlier.   Notice the multi colour flashes, this was routine throughout  winter when the sun was up,  now we have to wait for temperature contrasts to form. WD  April 5 2023

Astro dating Ancient Egyptian RA coronation ceremonies, the guide.

 ~The research results leading up to this guide is kept for peer reviewing.

~The technique is simple and relies on the Great Pyramid establishing a standard precedent following centuries  of  a secret Pharaoh  accession to the throne practices, which continued thereafter construction completion until the fall of the Pyramid age.   

                There is still a modern day  Khoiak,  a Coptic holiday starting in December of our calendar.................  Long ago etymology likely derived from  Khufu Ahket,   the name of the Great Pyramid.  In the architecture of the this pyramid we can find at least 2 yearly solar calendar dates.   Being solar requires that these structures need be dedicated mostly Southwards.  

         The first incorporated date marker can still be in effect yearly in our modern times, it is in the Kings chamber, Southwards 45 degree shaft.  In meticulous stone work is once again Ancient Egyptian obsession with the angle of 45 degrees.  Many astronomers and Egyptologists,  probably most of them, even the fringe theorists,  have written this 45 degrees being related to Orion constellation belt stars, mainly circa 2570 BC.  But this obsession predates 2570 BC by several 100 years.   The autumnal sun transit angle at 45 degrees was prime,   occurring once a year,  signaling the start of the  growing season, matched in religion at the same day as Osiris rebirth.   Prominently written in the first the Palermo stone hieroglyphs, we find 1st dynasty Pharaoh estimated to be Djer or Djet having ascension to the throne Month 4 day 13,  this should be November 1 (Gregorian, our calendar),  considering the first day of the year is the heliacal rise of Sirius from 70 day absence, usually appearing on July 19.  In the Great Pyramid King chamber South shaft,  45 degrees angle, shone the sun initiating the start of Hb Sb festival.  It was so before this shaft was planned to be assembled, well before October 31 2370 BC,  the likely date of Khufu's ascension and the start of the Great Pyramid construction.    

   2 very important events,  Osiris rebirth and start of seeding period was perfectly set day by the sun itself.  It was officially meant to repeat itself every year and theoretically the sun should still shine in this shaft,  despite no more Nile floods.     

      The second incorporated Pyramid date was fixed in stone but represents the era of 4th Dynasty Pharaohs. Carved in this one slope is a solar and Sirius co-joined date,  November 20 2370 BC  , "Ka-her-Ka",   joining of the souls ceremony, a secret coronation ritual occurring when the transit of the Sun during the day is at the same level as the transit of Sirius during the night.   This was a unique day,  later related to the Queens Chamber South shaft angle of 39.6 degrees.   In 2340 BC this ceremony was very likely  held,  but this time in the Queens chamber,  the 30th year jubilee of Khufu.   This is how the Great Pyramid can be dated.  A method not only for pyramids,  but valid for all other Pharaohs following the Solar/Sirius  RA/Sopdet (Isis)  perfect calendar who hopefully left a structure aimed at the sun and Sirius,  a likewise engraving or strange writings with lines having angles a few degrees off from 40 degrees.   39.6 degrees set a precedent, it was unique for the Great Pyramid, the Cathedral of Ancient Egyptians who practiced the Solar religion ruled by RA.   Post 4th dynasty, you need to find the Great Pyramid shaft angle of 39.6 etched somewhere and another higher slope angle feature in order  to identify the cult practice. 

    The Great pyramids still offer complexities to be deciphered,  but simplicity itself was hidden in front of everyone for generations.   However, I am not sure if religious practices included dissemination knowledge about construction slopes to the contemporaneous populace, for certain this secret knowledge  was surely entrenched and relearned by the solar RA priesthood for as long as it survived.    The first of November was an important yearly event, the 45 degrees sun at noon,  did not guarantee perfection with respect to the start of the seeding season,   it was an angle with more religious and Pharaonic establishment connotations than with farming,  moreover the Orion star belt has a level of meaning several magnitudes lower than a tangible relivable perfectly synchronized sun calendar day. 


     All known shafts except one seem to have a clear practical simple purpose.  The King Chamber South 45 degree shaft  can still be in use every year.   The Queens chamber South shaft was not meant to be permanent,  thus found sealed at both ends,  it was part of a secret "joining of the souls" ceremony of the Pharaohs mainly for the 4th dynasty.  especially dedicated for Khufu,  the renewed "Pharaoh 0", enshrined forever.   WD April 5 2023