Sunday, June 26, 2022

STABLE; why the Cold Temperature North Pole matters

 ~At any given day of the year the CTNP is the prime circulation mover

~Where all weather systems spins around it

~When it is weak,  hardly anything moves

~This highlights the importance of Arctic sea ice,  the world would be dramatically different without it.

Look carefully at GOES 16 IR system movements,  over Cuba and Gulf of Mexico the weather seems steady for a period of 2 days,  however over Hudson Bay the weather systems move a little more consistently Eastwards.  The further away from the CTNP the slower the circulation,   therefore this weather, as forecasted beginning of May here on EH2r,  has come through as expected.

   Of which June 26 center of coldest air in the world is :

In the SE quadrant of Russia side of the North Pole,  as far from Florida as it gets,  this center wobbles
like a top on top of the world.   Influencing a temperature differential of far lesser  importance than during winter,  30 Centigrade less important while during winter this surface temperature difference is in excess of 60 C.   The weather systems slow move during summers,  giving either greater droughts or floods wherever the systems stagnate.  Absent sea ice the situation will be very much more severe,  Therefore a New World Weather order is rising,  not on Earth in millions of years,  when nothing much will move during summer,  causing the most severe extreme weather most humans may not desire.  So far sea ice is on schedule to be even less prominent,  slowly ,  summer by every next summer,  with the known consequences experienced all over the world.   WD June 26 2021

Sunday, June 12, 2022

Arctic Basin switchover time , about to happen very much on schedule

~Sea ice melt pond data is scarce,  but from long presence of Gyre Anticyclone it is assumed that there are many
~The effects of about to disappear circulation will be compounded by the effects of the coming one

CMC June 12 12 UTC surface prog:

 The sliding of the North Pole cyclone to the Arctic Basin Gyre location seems apt to be more permanent.  

The repositioning of the CTNP's poised to be at the Pole except for North Alaska,  which will get a North Pole Upper Air flow,  all indicate a near permanent Cold Temperature North Pole at the North Pole... 

Melt Ponds are a key factor determining the extent of melt damage done to sea ice early on the melt season.  They are hard to detect,  but this can be done indirectly:

   The black spots on on JAXA/ Bremen AMSR2 have likely melt ponds.  especially twinned with snow depth:
June 12 Climate Reanalyzer  snow depth seems to infer melt ponds pretty much along the coasts devoid of snow.   Although  radar PV photos are more nebulous:

June 10 North of Inuvik Beaufort sea nebulous cloud haze like image seem to indicate wide area of melt ponds.

     As far as sea ice is concerned,  the Low pressure over Arctic Ocean Gyre will shape the over all sea ice melt picture pretty much as I expect,  however slow sea ice extent seems to vanish is an illusion of sorts, the damage from the long presence of anticyclone allowing more sunshine was done,   any further massive storm will bring out near future fissures and exacerbate the melt process further especially late July.  WD June 12, 2022

Thursday, June 2, 2022

Rogue Vortice special Real effects

 ~As the pressure switchover looms,   the Polar Vortex fades in grandeur

~But as such many Rogue Vortices are created

~One May 31 Rogue gave some special effects

A Typical GOES satellite Infra Red picture loop,  May 31  2022 look at the center cloud circulation,  towards the South East,  nothing much to look at.  Until you look at the surface prog,  turns out the clouds are turning the wrong way:

Red X marks the spot,  the surface isobaric flow opposes the movement of clouds.  But the culprit is a Rogue Vortice from the ever shrinking Polar Vortex:

This Vortice is breaking away from the amorphous mangled Polar Vortex really centered in the Canadian Arctic Archipelago (CAA) , this Labrador Vortice  at center is -10 C quite cold for this time of the year.   Again from a sign that the North CAA Cold Temperature North Pole is not done yet:

June 2 2022 700 mb -26 C over Cornwallis Island ,  quite cold CTNP,   The switch over is not in yet,  still on sched,  because its so cold there, for about mid June.  Note the -10 C Labrador Vortice gone,  because Rogues don't last long but their effects give lasting memories.  WD June 3 2022