NOAA & ECMWF AI vs EH2r long range summer projections

~Astounding if not fascinating outlook differences
~El-Nino or ENSO is not the only player on planet Earth

   First,  EH2r outlook audaciously looks quite different than the 2 largest forecasting giants,  NOAA heavily relies on ENSO    :

This temperature chart for May June and July looks amiss.   It relies on ENSO dominating cloud coverage and therefore affect Midwest US temperatures,  which looks good for May ,  not at all,  according to EH2r for June and July.   First of all,  if there are more clouds coming from ocean sources,  the coast would be cooler :

  NOAA AI is in the clouds!   According to EH2r, not going to happen,  which unlike NOAA makes midwest USA June July quite hot because the flow will indeed come from the oceans,  but on West coast clouds keeps things cooler,  clouds dry out migrating East.  On SW coast I don't think there will be any dominant circulation,  favoring Death Valley records NOAA got this covered.  On East coast the simmering dry Midwest heat should  move to the Northeast coast making it indeed warmer than usual,  the Southeast should suffer same fate as SW coast,  no general circulation especially from July August  and more precipitation records should occur.


ECMWF surprisingly has some similar outlooks:

ECMWF long range likely has the NE Pacific temperature blob right.  North America warmer temperature anomalies are a bit illogical as well.  SW USA cool is perhaps cloud driven,  but this suggests something strong moving things Eastwards,  From the stand point of the Midwest not being dry and hot,  quite unlikely.  East coast of North America way cooler than should be.  Since EH2r projection makes the waning Polar Vortex smaller than summer 2018,  which had Midwest June July quite warm.  so I expect this same area warmer than 2018.    Western Europe may be off for JJA,  the Gulf Stream cyclones should mainly whisk to the NW of the  UK, this brings dry heat from Espana.   Basically I think ECMWF model is heavily influenced by ENSO.  Which is fine,  only if ENSO is foreseen correctly.  However,  ENSO's range is huge,  and there was no signals of a pending stronger El-Nino.   On the right bright midnight sun side,  the Arctic projection looks good but for over estimated cooler Tundra zones,  and North Japan is off as well.  WD April 26 2019