Unprecedented Kara sea ice retreat at Novaya Zemlya, when winter cold should reign supreme.

 ~At least since 2004,  which highly likely means since historical records began.  

~Whilst 2024 maxima hovers about 14 million square Kilometers , right near the lowest extent ever.

University Bremen AMSR2 sea ice concentration  February 24 to March 4 2024:

Now March 4's 2004 to 2024,  2024 is the only one with water South of Novaya Zemlya Island,  at or near Maxima extent,  a fast retreat in the works.  Likely by the nature of sea ice in the sea of Kara,  thinner,  weaker,  not what it use to be not very long ago, not able to survive warmer weather of late.   Early days 2024 already suggest a record year of sea ice events.  WD March 5, 2024

NW Canadian Arctic archipelago littoral thin ice surviving tidal ridging, one more never seen before event

 ~As a result of overall thinner sea ice combined with lesser extent at minima,  the Archipelago coast has a new look

~A totally new Arctic Ocean feature, an introduction to the future shape of winter sea ice to come.

January 9 2023,  a polarview not unlike preceding years, perhaps with some thinner ice compared to the 80's, ridging near the coast can be clearly seen along with tidal frozen shore leads.  The Islands of the arhipelago, have different topography,  Borden Island (top left), Elef Ringnes 2nd from left,  Meighen Island is the little one next to mountainous  Fjord rich Axel Heiberg extreme right.

Impossible scenery December 23 2023.  there is a wide open area of very thin sea ice all along the same coast.  Not a fierce storm temporary feature.  Thin "black" ice was there for quite some time. It was predicted that the coast would be freer seai ice at minima,  this new sea ice was likely frozen in place sometimes in October.   

Very peculiar new sea ice,  never  seen so wide offshore lasting very long.

 Lasting the entire month of Januar 2024.  Remarkable,  in the past, Arctic Ocean sea ice would have crushed this newer thinner shore sea ice in a matter of days.

A closer look loop of January 23 to February 16 2024, reveals the tidal breaking of all ice, new and old, moving in unison in the direction of the Arctic Ocean tidal gyre.  There were several breaks similar to this. Thinner sea ice would break easier.  However, the lack of ridging seems permanent,  indicating a significant change in sea ice dynamics, this is quite unfamiliar, of course expected when the icescape features are fundamentally very different in overall thickness along with major weather pattern changes. WD February 18, 2024 

 

Warm 2023-2024 Worldwide shrinking of winter

 ~600 mb pressure level closely indicates the temperature of the entire atmosphere

~ Current warming undeniably has changed weather patterns everywhere, strange or rare events are normal and common

~In essence, predicting long range weather will be even more difficult because we never been this warmed.  Forecasting chaos is a safer bet.  

GONE is thick sea ice driven cooling over the Arctic ocean,  equally giving no Cold Temperature North Pole at the North Pole, as once was not so long ago.  NEW patterns are a plenty;  NEW by-Polar CTNP's over the continents,  NEW deep warming incursions over the Arctic Ocean, NEW shrinking of the entire winter Zone for the Northern Hemisphere, finally CTNP's can dominate on one continent only, leaving the other with hibernating bees waking up mid winter.  It is now quite foreseeable to visualize the future of winter with a much warmer Arctic Ocean zone cutting off the buildup of strong by-continental anticyclones shivering most of the world.  

     Next few months cooling and likely less of it will determine the coming weather for summer and fall. At present sea ice survives because of clouds, less coverage emperils the white cooling cap of the Polar North. Earth cooling system is hanging by a veil of fine water droplets and ice crystals along with a much thinner sea ice cover. Lets hope Polar clouds keep on reflecting sun rays to space,  otherwise more weather chaos will ensue.  Cloud are vey difficult to predict when moisture in Earth's atmosphere is on a world wide increase.  The tipping point will occur when air temperatures reduce the formation of strati clouds,  from there the end of summer sea ice will be,  from that point winter will be split in two smaller areas. WD February 15 2024   

 

+2 degree world diminutive Polar Vortex, stretched South, not because it was colder in the Arctic.

 ~Latest North American Polar Vortex was preceded by a huge North Pacific cyclone, effectively lowering Southwards the jet stream range.

~ Mild winter show of 2023-24 just had a Polar Vortex interruption which should be short lived,  because the Northern Hemisphere winter build up is very small.

    I think the weather medias are having a better understanding of the Polar Vortex phenom,  excellent,  but still don't understand how it is created,  how it behaves,  and especially where the cold air comes from in the first place. Cold air can be created South of the Arctic just as much as in the Arctic.  All is required is clear air at night, a low sun during the day and snow on the ground.  What makes the vortex apparently move are these 3 factors,  it is not created by the Arctic atmosphere.  If you know Earth Geodesy,  the Arctic is a far smaller region than further South,  it can't account for all the cold  covering much bigger land areas many times its size.  Broadcasted like "Arctic dome,  Arctic blast" is misleading.  What really happened of late is a huge North Pacific cyclone moved towards Alaska, this squeezed the small vortex buildup further South Eastwards,  which onto itself built step by step cooling Southwards (inducing High pressure genesis).  This is what most TV weather presenters call the Arctic blast,  but this cold is homegrown, literally over your head. The sun altitude below 30 degree elevation at noon is rather weak,  so Austin Texas,  with current 38 degree sun elevation at noon,  is not a bastion of heat,  has the sun below 30 degrees elevation for most of the day, but is basically at the last step in this Southward cooling process,  until the physical conditions that created this deep freezing disappear, like a nice warm breeze from the Gulf of Mexico.  The susceptibility of the smaller Polar Vortex to be morphed, and therefore cause the stepping process has been documented right here on several occasions,  when a place like Michigan has had the coldest air of the winter, colder than the Arctic, Siberia etc.    

U of Maine Climate Analyzer,   17 January 2024.  What appears to be very cold, is not, the small Arctic has a huge warming anomaly (white Globe),  while Arctic surface temperatures are still colder than most of the USA (reddish Globe),  so much for an Arctic blast . Extreme cooling is a normal winter process especially when a High pressure system sluggishly moves Eastwards. However 15 C Arctic warming anomaly is not normal when not just one day event,  most of the Arctic winter so far has been extraordinarily warmer.  Again warmest ever,  a decades old song that just cant stop repeating itself.  WD January 17 2024

 

Warming a bit masked by sea ice extent minima numbers. Summer clouds from Global Warming excess moisture is saving Arctic sea ice from completely melting every year.

 ~EH2r April sea ice projection morphology was bang on

~Extent numericals slightly off,  again by underestimating  cloud effects.

~Hudson Bay early December sea ice in dire straits.  

    April 2023 sea ice minima extent projection:

Was very good.   

                                 

     Estimating sea ice morphology forecast breakthrough.  How does one see it coming to be when there was so much ice cover in April?  By finding out where the CTNP was located  all winter.  Cold Temperature North Pole winter 2022 2023  was peculiar.  But severely studying its gyrations gave this remarkable success.  However extent numbers were off by not so much,  sea ice extent forecasting is much more easier to do than a few years prior though. The problem was the obsession with 2012 and  2007 minima's,  which likely had more sunshine than all the other years, caused by combination of ENSO strengths and CTNP locations.  Which is still the case,  ENSO variant is particularly important.   The more clouds covers Arctic summer the less sea ice melts.  In particular 2007 had a great low albedo period,   2012 was a bit more complex,  with a particularly warm Arctic spring,  a CTNP geographical effect.    Since then sea ice thickness shrank, gradually,  with apparent moderation from greater cloud cover,   mainly from the great North Pacific warm sea surface blob.  

   Indeed,  Arctic sea ice can vanish almost completely given an extensive period  of low cloud cover,   The only way this can be done,  would be by massive summer La- Nina,   recent ones  has had a hard time exceeding the moisture coming from the warm Pacific blob.   It is a reprieve of sorts from yearly rapid sea ice extinction,  however the gradual melt down continues unabated,  heat from the surrounding massive oceans will eventually warm the Arctic Atmosphere causing less clouds.  And cause what is already happening in some key areas,  Hudson Bay being one of them:

Hudson Bay sea ice is more vulnerable because it is surrounded by land.  which dries out some of the North Pacific and Atlantic moisture giving clouds.  Now its virtually ice free when it should not be,  likely from prolonged summer insolation warming . WD November 30,  2023

This July STEADY to STOP weather was foreseen in April

 ~Remarkable prediction success,  the new world weather order is here to stay.

   OK ,  back in April  ,    July projection:

July 13, 2023:

    "Historic heat streak"  was twinned with historic flooding particularly in Vermont USA.  EH2r April projection was written:  

                                  "With steady stagnating weather over North America, where its hot will persist hot,  where its moist will be soggier longer."

     The larger picture is clear, July 13 CMC loop shows no apparent or slow circulation:  

In fact it can be argued that the circulation has stopped in some parts :

Look at the mouse cursor pointing at Hudson Bay Low over one day,  literally not moving,  amongst other weather features,  but of course around any cyclone there is movement.  But when the cyclone stops moving,  the larger  general circulation is stagnant with respect to weather systems,  this gives troubling weather at any time of the year...  

     And so,  Global Anthropogenic enhanced Warming,  gives this kind of summer weather.  Being able to predict this feature,  was largely because the subject was observed many times,  the mechanics was finally uncovered in large part because climate scientists accepted GAeW as a fact,  they have taught this subject as best they could,  and to prove this good understanding, the projection or forecast,  from a humble student,  had to come through .   Anyone who does not dwell in this respected field,  who makes stupid claims that GAeW is not happening has naturally failed to predict anything correctly ad nauseam, should be shunned.  WD July 13, 2023

EQUILIBRIUM , new horizon refraction discovery of what happens when Ti***=Tl***

 ~When heat radiation balance of Arctic lands  equals Sea ice ,  something extraordinary happens.  

~The Northern Hemisphere general circulation radically changes.  

    Whilst doing optical refraction research,  I discovered a thermal balance horizon image,   horizontal refraction between land covered by snow Tl***,  was the same as horizontal refraction of sea ice covered by snow Ti***,  on May17-18 this happened.  I realized that this was an important moment,  when the radiation balance of the entire Arctic became in equilibrium.  Thus,  there was no longer competing zones with the coldest air in the Arctic,  the Cold Temperature North Pole,  CTNP.  But rather a Pole centric CTNP.  Instead of 2 CTNP's on each continent there became only one.

                                                                                                       From May 7 to 17 the 600 mb coldest temperatures fractured the world with planetary waves  right above,

the 2 CTNP's looked very much like Galaxy simulations about to merge.  But the weather further South was perturbed by these waves,  hence General Circulation flowed or surfed the waves.    Which meant that in some zones ,  the weather appeared quite stable.   All this changed on the 17th,  where upon it is likely that the entire Arctic energy balance was more steady,  no more was land surface colder than sea ice .  Being equal means a consolidation of weather patterns.  The North Pole is coldest now,  because that is where the least sun radiation reaches the surface,  the Arctic continents have warmed to the point where they have lost the ability to generate deep cooling.

May 18 onwards , left,  600 mb represents the Density Weighted Temperature of the entire troposphere,  at least it is the closest standard level to it.  Here we see the North Pole centric nature of a single CTNP.  This brings about a much more fluid weather circulation pattern Southwards,  with planetary waves far less spread out,  otherwise if longer causing such weather phenomena as "Omega Blocks"  .  This less mega wavy geometry has coincided with the land and sea ice horizon refraction being equal,  for many days since the 17th . Near North Pole weather is far steadier as well,  with frequent Quasi Stationary pressure systems,  again appearing within a day when optical refraction on land became undistinguishable with sea ice. This Arctic equilibrated surface thermal feature completely has changed weather Northern World wide.   

     CMC surface analysis May 20 at 06 12 18 and may 21 00 UTC .  Look at the QS ,  Quasi Stationary Cyclone at the North Pole,  WD May 25 2023

2023 spring summer fall major weather patterns projection by unorthodox means, map projections

 ~Not quite 2022  more like 2007 spring and 2012 August

C is Cold Temperature North Pole,  in green is the jet stream,  dominant locations of cyclones and anticyclones are placed,  the latter means more often than not you will see a High or a Low on the coming weather maps.  

    May to June 21,  2 CTNP zones,  the Ellesmere Island one stronger of late,  but the real cold  imprint was from Northeastern Siberian CTNP's dominating during  much of the winter.  The Arctic Basin Gyre switchover will occur late,  at around the solstice,  which means a great potential strong melt North of Beaufort sea but this will be slowed by Cyclonic clouds.    Rainy on the Northwest North American coast,   but somewhat not diluvial since the great SST North Pacific warm blob is smaller than recent previous years.  Northern Europe would have the benefit of clouds as opposed to the Mediterranean shores baking.   

     June 21 till mid September, sea ice direct sun melt reprieve with the Low pressure mainly hanging on top of the Arctic Ocean Gyre, along with North Pacific in provenance moisture,  giving clouds,  mitigating an otherwise disastrous start of the melt season.  With steady stagnating weather over North America, where its hot will persist hot,  where its moist will be soggier longer.   It will be stubbornly cloudy for most of North of Russia Arctic ocean shores  throughout the sea ice melt season.    However disastrously hot over most of Siberia at some distance from the Arctic Ocean.   Likewise extreme heat in Europe and North Africa.  Not to be as bad  in North America,  because of the sea surface high temperature blob of the North Pacific injecting moisture eventually mixing with Gulf of Mexico evaporation for the East coast, proximity to El-Nino will add up favoring more clouds as well. Even with very slow to not moving systems,  multiple heat waves will abound.  Along with a very  slow moving hurricanes and typhoons most having great strength ,  fortunately not as frequently landing to shore,  with hurricanes and typhoons mainly wandering aimlessly over very warmed up ocean sectors,  but those who do reach land will  not be pleasant,  with not much  returning to normal after passage.  

The ultimate test of understanding our present climate,  sea ice projections.   

        Ever so difficult to be exact,  more so than any climate projection attempts,  is the sea ice extent at minima ,  usually  mid-September,  here is a look at last years projection adjoined with 2022 actual JAXA extent on September 15: 

2022 projection failed in morphology on the Russian Quadrant from the North Pole ,  not so much in over all extent.  I am more confident about this years shape of sea ice minima perimeter to come:

The 2023 minima should have finally less sea ice than 2012,  despite the clouds

from El-Nino and the North Pacific blob, primarily because there will be a 2012 cyclonic repeats in August, and since the over all sea ice is thinner than ever.    The NW Archipelago shores should appear more open at times because of the effects from these Arctic Ocean  Gyre hovering cyclones,  despite sea ice tendency of piling up or ridging on the archipelago coast  by the tides.  WD April 29. 2023

2023 spring summer fall major weather patterns projection by unorthodox means

~Unusual winter CTNP pattern has created a ripe sea ice-scape for a 2007 melt scenario.

~The North Pacific high sea temperature anomaly has been tamed, sort of,  mainly on North West American continent coast

~Stable temperatures will start early for most of the US and Canada

~While rains will be confined again to extreme NW Europe

Sea ice First Melt, a sign of 2016 like melting 

2 major factors have permeated vast swats of sea ice, one is a lesser snow cover, the other except for a brief period, was a milder High Arctic winter. It is complicated, less snow cover means thicker sea ice accretion, but this was largely tempered by the milder winter in total darkness.  This makes the cold sea ice core not susceptible to cause significant horizon refraction, but until warmer spring temperatures happened.    Therefore, we have a first year ice likely encouraging a more rapid melt, snow conduction cools the melting process a lot, bereft of strong snow albedo,  new year sea ice will vanish quicker.

    First sea ice bottom melt can be detected when the astronomical horizon height is equal to the sea ice horizon, it basically tells the melting rate for later in spring and summer.  

   Last 9 years comparison results includes 2023 next to 2016,  a great sea ice melt year.   There is great potential for the new sea ice to vanish quickly,  given future sunny conditions,   which is determined by additional means,  so it goes like this:

2018-2015-2022-2023-2016-2020-2019-2013-2017-2021

   2021 had a lot of snow on top of sea ice, it is a great factor in saving it from melting fast.    2023 had mainly new sea ice in the observation field, melt pond indicator should be weak given none abundant snow cover not only here but everywhere.  

Vertical sun disk diameters, what is the score?

Maximum decimal expanded vertical sun disks per year: 

  

2018 2019 2020 2003 2022 2002 2023 2004 2007 2008 2014 2011

  0           0           0           1            1            2              2             4            4            4           4          5

2017 2012 2021 2009 2010 2013 2005 2006 2015 2016

  5            6          6           8            8           8              9           10           13           19

      2023 was done with 550 sun disk measurements,  from 119 elevation decimal levels,  with observation period from late February to end of April.   2023 results are in the same modern era of the recent great Cold Temperature North Pole displacement, largely hovering to the Northwards, highly concentrated in the North Baffin to Ellesmere Island area of late.  The greatest cooling was determined by refraction measurements especially above 5 degrees altitude, which matches to where Green House gas induced cooling should exist, upwards from the mid layer of the atmosphere, this data is very compelling,  as the surface warms,  the near horizon sun disks expand along with sunsets shifting Northwards,  while the upper mid layer and above cools, compressed sun disks happen,  with literally multiple thousands disk measurements confirming this.   2016 was the last year when colder air was less centralized within the Polar Vortex, up to that year the High Arctic atmosphere cold air was more geographically spread out and homogenized.   Since after 2016 the Polar Vortex shrank in geography, became highly stable over the said smaller portion of the High Arctic.  Sun disk measurements have lost the ability to predict Global temperatures since that year as well.   But knowing this gives a better idea of how long the CTNP would subsist into spring.  2018 to 2020 had a very strong frozen area over the Canadian High Arctic. This withered a bit in 2021, only to continue in strength in 2022 and 2023.   Its best looking at sun disks between the years 2018-2023, 2023 had the second warmest CTNP at the coldest core of the Polar Vortex, a sign,  the stable extreme but smaller cold zone is warming year by year.   

Massive Sunset Field shift

       EH2r sunset monitoring had the largest field shift in sunset tardiness,  whereas the West,  the traditional tardiness quadrant,  became tame,  and the Northwest  had very late sunsets for the first time ever.  One at 92.54 Zenith angle and some 7 degrees Northwards compared to previous records going back to 2001,  there were others up to 3 degrees azimuth Northwards,  huge numbers,   in the past they were very predictable and tame compared to the Western field.  This basically  infers a very rapid warming of the ground and sea ice,  due to lack of  snow and no deeply entrenched in the ground or ice winter cooling during the long night.  

Fata Morgana of Cape Sheridan hill, never seen before in 37 years.  23 of which were intensely observed.   

        

     Part of April 7 sunset , 2.54 degrees below the horizon, 7.5  degrees to the Northwards from multiple past steady observations,  equivalent of 15 sun disks place one next to the other.   Both sun and sea ice horizon line were highly raised by strong  inversion,  this was never recorded or seen since 2001,  the ground surface appears darker,  with rock ridges mixed with patchy snow coverage.  

     This is particularly what Climate Change literally looks like,  the optical effects of Global Warming in a place far away from any industry or urban development,  as far away as you can imagine, this Arctic land is becoming and looking like a different world........   Map projections in the next article.  WD April 28, 2023

April 5 2023 sunset, rapid surface air cooling by sea ice and permafrost.

 ~It likely was a mix,  warmed up thinner sea ice with little snow cover rapidly cooled surface air,  but also on land (the appearing red flash), not having so much snow as well, warmed during a sunny day with light winds,  with permafrost boosted cooling of interface air at sunset.  

    Must invert the GIF's for proper perspective. It has been a strange sunset season,  mainly influenced by the least snow cover in many years.  Top permafrost was vulnerable for a great cooling,  however winter past was mainly warmer than usual,  with only a few weeks of deep freezing hovering about  -40 C.  As a result we have had no very rapid rebound cooling on the surfaces,   until air temperatures got warmer while permafrost and sea ice steady peak cold temperature layers became prominent compared to air temps,  exacerbating stronger thermal inversions....    In other words,  it is starting to be interesting late in the season,  while it was very dull earlier.   Notice the multi colour flashes, this was routine throughout  winter when the sun was up,  now we have to wait for temperature contrasts to form. WD  April 5 2023