Thursday, January 4, 2018

Direct Causal link between ENSO index and Snow extent version 2017-2018

~ Winter Northern Hemisphere Cloud seed theory is :  During El-Nino or especially trending El-Nino more snow,   During La-Nina or especially trending La-Nina less snow

~ It is ecstatic to discover how small this planet is. 


  Proof you ask?

None better than show the facts:



  We note this table from most expansive break down on current ENSO expose (must read here),
look at 2016 brief continuation of El-Nino especially during winter.  Then a downturn to La-Nina from June onwards with a pause in trending during winter 2016-17,  which had significant implications in many parts of the world, then back to trending La-Nina end of 2017.  It means that the trending part is a or the most important aspect.  ENSO reached LA-Nina during the summer of 2016 (when only there is a very small snow signal possible) , however spring 2017 had small upward warming,  which meant more clouds,  which in retrospect affected the entire spring summer season.  And now perhaps the real La-Nina backlash from strong 2014-2016 El-Nino will really show up. 


    So basically if we use the said theory,  there would be more snow in 2016-17 than 2017-18,  lets look

Beginning of winter 2016-17 in light green had indeed  more snow on the ground,   2017-2018 less .   I believe the same can be said with previous winters,  except this graph (taken here) etchings are hard to distinguish.  2011-2012 appears to be lowest which makes sense.  Note the breaking to less snow extent trend starting November 2017 mimicked identically with ONI cooling in table seen just above.  Finally, late winter 2015-16 (I colored matched the outlying lone lowest snow extent in March) had very significant drop in extent , from very high to lowest, exactly when 14-16 El-Nino was ending and substantially trending La-Nina .  WD January 4 2018.









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