Thursday, June 19, 2014

From optical based hypothesis to reality


~Must consider present snow layer as an upward extension of sea ice

~~Hypothesis largely confirmed!!!

   A typical day of a buoy,  taking temperatures 10 cm intervals from top of snow downwards.   The optical refraction method confirms that this buoy is functional!!!

  Please read hypothesis:

http://eh2r.blogspot.ca/2014/05/finding-sea-ice-underside-melting-at.html

   Consider snow layer as ice.   Then read the buoy data (written colour are my comments):
Yellow:  surface temperature,  blue background:  peak minima temperature in snow or ice layer.  Grey background is ice thickness in meters……:

April 7,2014:

~Buoy 2014b  72.54N 149.52W

Date,Latitude (degrees),Longitude (degrees),Quality (+/- km),Air Temp (C),Air Pressure (mb),Snow Surface Position (m),Ice Thickness(m),Ice Surface Position (m),Ice Bottom Position(m),T1 (C),T2 (C),T3 (C),T4 (C),T5 (C),T6 (C),T7 (C),T8 (C),T9 (C),T10 (C),T11 (C),T12 (C),T13 (C),T14 (C),T15 (C),T16 (C),T17 (C),T18 (C),T19 (C),T20 (C),T21 (C),T22 (C),T23 (C),T24 (C),T25 (C),T26 (C),T27 (C),T28 
(C),T29 (C),T30 (C),T31 ©

Overnight lower atmospheric INVERSION,  horizon appears high:

"04/07/2014 12:00","     72.5376","   -149.5226","GPS","    -28.61","   1012.55","      0.03","      1.54","      0.00","     -1.54","    -29.14","    -29.07","    -28.84","    -26.98","    -19.70","    -15.81","    -14.15","    -13.06","    -11.88","    -10.75","     -9.74","     -8.71","     -7.85","     -6.93","     -5.84","     -4.96","     -4.02","     -2.88","     -1.69","     -1.63","     -1.57","     -1.67","     -1.69","     -1.57","     -1.57","     -1.59","     -1.65","     -1.57","     -1.57","     -1.57","     -1.63"

Gradual diurnal warming … It was likely sunny.  
"04/07/2014 13:00","","","","    -29.03","   1012.68","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","",""
"04/07/2014 14:00","","","","    -28.61","   1012.68","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","",""
"04/07/2014 15:00","","","","    -27.96","   1012.41","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","",""

Horizon near true astronomical Horizon:

"04/07/2014 16:00","     72.5374","   -149.5243","GPS","    -26.19","   1012.41","      0.03","      1.54","      0.00","     -1.54","    -25.97","    -26.16","    -26.05","    -24.57","    -19.26","    -16.06","    -14.40","    -13.25","    -11.94","    -10.81","     -9.80","     -8.77","     -7.79","     -6.93","     -5.84","     -4.96","     -4.08","     -2.88","     -1.69","     -1.63","     -1.63","     -1.67","     -1.69","     -1.57","     -1.57","     -1.53","     -1.65","     -1.57","     -1.50","     -1.57","     -1.63"

Further gradual warming:
"04/07/2014 17:00","","","","    -24.40","   1012.21","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","",""
"04/07/2014 18:00","","","","    -23.01","   1012.07","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","",""
"04/07/2014 19:00","","","","    -23.06","   1011.94","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","",""

Close to LAN,  snow/ice temperature minima lowers downwards towards ice bottom,  horizon dropped significantly as well:
"04/07/2014 20:00","     72.5372","   -149.5284","GPS","    -22.86","   1011.94","      0.03","      1.54","      0.00","     -1.54","    -15.09","    -15.98","    -17.01","    -18.69","    -17.49","    -15.81","    -14.46","    -13.31","    -12.07","    -10.87","     -9.80","     -8.71","     -7.85","     -6.86","     -5.84","     -4.96","     -4.02","     -2.82","     -1.69","     -1.63","     -1.63","     -1.61","     -1.69","     -1.57","     -1.50","     -1.59","     -1.59","     -1.57","     -1.57","     -1.57","     -1.63"

Surface temperature stall:
"04/07/2014 21:00","","","","    -22.02"," 
 1012.14","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","",""
"04/07/2014 22:00","","","","    -21.42","   1012.07","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","",""
"04/07/2014 23:00","","","","    -21.47","   1012.01","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","",""

Post-local apparent noon horizon at lowest point, there was a significant lower atmosphere adiabatic lapse rate:
"04/08/2014 00:00","     72.5367","   -149.5333","GPS","    -21.06","   1011.73","      0.02","      1.54","      0.00","     -1.54","     -5.96","     -4.02","     -5.29","    -13.33","    -16.17","    -15.37","    -14.21","    -13.31","    -12.07","    -10.87","     -9.86","     -8.77","     -7.79","     -6.86","     -5.84","     -4.90","     -4.08","     -2.82","     -1.69","     -1.63","     -1.63","     -1.67","     -1.69","     -1.57","     -1.50","     -1.59","     -1.65","     -1.57","     -1.57","     -1.57","     -1.63"
"04/08/2014 01:00","","","","    -20.47","   1011.60","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","",""
"04/08/2014 02:00","","","","    -21.28","   1011.53","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","",""
"04/08/2014 03:00","","","","    -22.29","   1011.33","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","",""
Horizon still low despite slight cooling, suspect latent heat of fusion event
(perhaps at 01:00) where bottom ice froze by 1 cm but released heat:

"04/08/2014 04:00","     72.5363","   -149.5390","GPS","    -22.95","   1011.33","      0.03","      1.55","      0.00","     -1.55","    -13.33","    -13.71","    -15.75","    -18.12","    -16.48","    -15.12","    -14.02","    -13.25","    -12.13","    -10.93","     -9.93","     -8.83","     -7.85","     -6.93","     -5.84","     -4.96","     -4.08","     -2.88","     -1.69","     -1.63","     -1.63","     -1.67","     -1.69","     -1.57","     -1.50","     -1.53","     -1.59","     -1.57","     -1.50","     -1.57","     -1.63"

Diurnal evening cooling:
"04/08/2014 05:00","","","","    -24.79","   1011.19","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","",""
"04/08/2014 06:00","","","","    -26.44","   1011.06","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","",""
"04/08/2014 07:00","","","","    -26.92","   1011.06","","","","","","","","",""

 Inversion started a few hours prior,  horizon rose and was rising further; Snow/ice layer cooled more than surface air:
"04/08/2014 08:00","     72.5366","   -149.5449","GPS","    -26.74","   1011.06","      0.03","      1.55","      0.00","     -1.55","    -27.36","    -27.49","    -27.00","    -24.45","    -18.25","    -15.37","    -14.08","    -13.18","    -12.13","    -11.00","     -9.99","     -8.90","     -7.91","     -6.99","     -5.90","     -5.02","     -4.08","     -2.88","     -1.76","     -1.63","     -1.63","     -1.67","     -1.69","     -1.57","     -1.57","     -1.59","     -1.59","     -1.57","     -1.50","     -1.57","     -1.63"
"04/08/2014 09:00","","","","    -25.90","  

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------

 On April 7, the measurement times were not in line with specific thermal events on that day, but on April 4  it was a different story:

April 4,  2014:

Pre-LAN horizon was already at low true astronomical horizon (a favourably warm or cloudy day combination),  at this point bottom ice melts earlier:
04/04/2014 12:00","     72.5080","   -149.2189","GPS","    -22.76","   1014.31","      0.03","      1.53","      0.00","     -1.53","    -22.74","    -22.04","    -21.56","    -20.65","    -17.30","    -15.18","    -13.90","    -13.06","    -11.94","    -10.87","     -9.80","     -8.65","     -7.66","     -6.68","     -5.59","     -4.64","     -3.70","     -2.70","     -1.69","     -1.63","     -1.63","     -1.67","     -1.69","     -1.57","     -1.57","     -1.59","     -1.59","     -1.57","     -1.57","     -1.57","     -1.63"

Surface temperature stall:
"04/04/2014 13:00","","","","    -23.22","   1014.24","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","",""
"04/04/2014 14:00","","","","    -23.17","   1014.18","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","",""
"04/04/2014 15:00","","","","    -23.60","   1013.77","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","",""
Horizon was low, surface of snow/ice warms, bottom ice lost 1 cm (needs sonar confirmation):
"04/04/2014 16:00","     72.5125","   -149.2523","GPS","    -23.47","   1013.23","      0.04","      1.52","      0.00","     -1.52","    -23.05","    -22.17","    -21.81","    -21.28","    -17.81","    -15.43","    -14.08","    -13.12","    -11.94","    -10.81","     -9.80","     -8.71","     -7.72","     -6.74","     -5.59","     -4.64","     -3.77","     -2.70","     -1.69","     -1.63","     -1.63","     -1.67","     -1.69","     -1.57","     -1.57","     -1.59","     -1.65","     -1.57","     -1.57","     -1.57","     -1.63"

Very Slow or stalled diurnal warming:
"04/04/2014 17:00","","","","    -23.05","   1013.23","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","",""
"04/04/2014 18:00","","","","    -22.86","   1012.89","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","",""
"04/04/2014 19:00","","","","    -22.50","   1012.68","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","",""
1 hour prior local apparent noon , lowest horizon:
"04/04/2014 20:00","     72.5179","   -149.2950","GPS","    -21.87","   1012.28","      0.03","      1.53","      0.00","     -1.53","    -19.58","    -19.58","    -19.28","    -19.32","    -17.30","    -15.37","    -14.08","    -13.12","    -11.88","    -10.81","     -9.74","     -8.65","     -7.66","     -6.74","     -5.59","     -4.71","     -3.77","     -2.57","     -1.69","     -1.63","     -1.63","     -1.67","     -1.69","     -1.57","     -1.57","     -1.53","     -1.65","     -1.57","     -1.57","     -1.57","     -1.63"
Slow surface temperature stall:
"04/04/2014 21:00","","","","    -20.94","   1011.94","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","",""
"04/04/2014 22:00","","","","    -20.39"," 
 "04/04/2014 23:00","","","","    -19.75","   1011.60","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","",
"","","","","","","","","","",""

After LAN peak warming period consists of surface to air interface Adiabatic profile, horizon was low, ice minima at lowest point nearer middle of ice column.
"04/05/2014 00:00","     72.5258","   -149.3425","GPS","    -18.82","   1010.92","      0.03","      1.53","      0.00","     -1.53","    -13.77","    -14.53","    -13.66","    -15.47","    -16.04","    -14.99","    -13.90","    -13.06","    -11.88","    -10.75","     -9.74","     -8.65","     -7.66","     -6.68","     -5.59","     -4.64","     -3.77","     -2.63","     -1.69","     -1.63","     -1.63","     -1.67","     -1.69","     -1.57","     -1.57","     -1.53","     -1.59","     -1.57","     -1.57","     -1.57","     -1.63"

Surface Temperature stall:
"04/05/2014 01:00","","","","    -18.68","   1010.72","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","",""
"04/05/2014 02:00","","","","    -18.61","   1010.58","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","",

 Snow/ice coldest layer rose towards surface: 
"","","","","","","","","","",""
"04/05/2014 03:00","","","","    -19.10","   1010.24","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","",""

"04/05/2014 04:00","     72.5327","   -149.3823","GPS","    -19.16","   1009.97","      0.03","      1.53","      0.00","     -1.53","    -17.55","    -17.87","    -17.96","    -17.56","    -15.92","    -14.74","    -13.77","    -12.99","    -11.94","    -10.87","     -9.80","     -8.71","     -7.72","     -6.74","     -5.65","     -4.77","     -3.83","     -2.76","     -1.69","     -1.63","     -1.63","     -1.67","     -1.69","     -1.51","     -1.57","     -1.59","     -1.59","     -1.57","     -1.57","     -1.57","     -1.63"
"04/05/2014 05:00","","","","    -18.86","   1009.56","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","",""
"04/05/2014 06:00","","","","    -18.89","   1009.43","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","",""
"04/05/2014 07:00","","","","    -18.99","   1009.29","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","",""
 Inversion, beginning of "ice wall",   horizon risen (possible maximum bottom melt, needs calibration):
"04/05/2014 08:00","     72.5359","   -149.4102","GPS","    -19.21","   1009.16","      0.03","      1.52","      0.00","     -1.52","    -19.39","    -18.88","    -18.71","    -18.12","    -16.10","    -14.74","    -13.71","    -12.93","    -11.94","    -10.87","     -9.86","     -8.77","     -7.79","     -6.80","     -5.71","     -4.77","     -3.83","     -2.76","     -1.69","     -1.63","     -1.57","     -1.67","     -1.69","     -1.57","     -1.57","     -1.53","     -1.65","     -1.57","     -1.50","     -1.57","     -1.63"
"04/05/2014 09:00","","","","    -19.19","   1008.89","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","",""
"04/05/2014 10:00","","",""," -19.27"," 1008.89","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","" "04/05/2014 11:00","","",""," -19.28"," 1008.55","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","",""
    Sometimes prior, bottom refroze, released latent heat of fusion warming throughout entire ice (ice thickness should be re-confirmed):
 04/05/2014 12:00","     72.5374","   -149.4334","GPS","    -19.28","   1008.48","      0.03","      1.53","      0.00","     -1.53","    -19.13","    -18.76","    -18.52","    -18.00","    -16.17","

---- ----------------------------------------------

   Hypothesis presented here confirmed by buoy.  But buoy data are really good for specific physical details.  Optical data is immediate and comprises all of this same information in general,  but in physical precise terms, all obtained in one swift glimpse….

___________________________________
NASA EOSDIS confirmed clear day :

     April 9 2014,  buoy 2014B:

    Evening prior diurnal cooling:
"04/09/2014 05:00","","","","    -21.08","   1010.85","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","",""
"04/09/2014 06:00","","","","    -22.22","   1010.99","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","",""
"04/09/2014 07:00","","","","    -24.69","   1011.12","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","",""
"04/09/2014 08:00","     72.5308","   -149.5788","GPS","    -26.22","   1011.67","      0.05","      1.54","      0.00","     -1.54","    -26.22","    -26.35","    -26.30","    -26.09","    -21.54","    -15.43","    -13.90","    -13.12","    -12.13","    -11.06","    -10.11","     -9.02","     -8.04","     -7.12","     -6.03","     -5.08","     -4.14","     -2.95","     -1.76","     -1.63","     -1.63","     -1.67","     -1.69","     -1.51","     -1.57","     -1.53","     -1.59","     -1.57","     -1.57","     -1.57","     -1.63"

  Next Day Morning cooling continues:
 
"04/09/2014 09:00","","","","    -27.07","   1012.14","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","",""
"04/09/2014 10:00","","","","    -26.98","   1012.75","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","",""
"04/09/2014 11:00","","","","    -28.08","   1013.23","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","",""

   Bottom refreeze at about 10:00 UTC.  Note the surface warming. At 12:00 UTC, there was likely a 10 C/100 meter inversion.   This is significant enough to make special optical"effects"
"04/09/2014 12:00","     72.5309","   -149.5794","GPS","    -28.63","   1013.70","      0.04","      1.55","      0.00","     -1.55","    -28.82","    -28.82","    -28.71","    -28.57","    -23.25","    -16.00","    -14.02","    -13.12","    -12.07","    -11.00","    -10.05","     -9.02","     -8.04","     -7.12","     -6.03","     -5.08","     -4.14","     -2.95","     -1.76","     -1.63","     -1.57","     -1.67","     -1.69","     -1.57","     -1.57","     -1.53","     -1.59","     -1.57","     -1.57","     -1.63","     -1.63"


   Sun -4.7 degrees below the horizon,  sunrise may be visible due to surface to air inversion:
"04/09/2014 13:00","","","","    -29.04","   1014.18","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","",""
"04/09/2014 14:00","","","","    -29.44","   1014.58","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","",""
"04/09/2014 15:00","","","","    -29.94","   1014.99","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","",""

    Sun 7.4 degrees above the horizon, enough to warm the snow/ice surface warmer than surface air,  the apparent horizon dropped  a lot, coldest ice layer sinks.  
"04/09/2014 16:00","     72.5309","   -149.5785","GPS","    -29.65","   1015.40","      0.05","      1.54","      0.00","     -1.54","    -29.07","    -29.26","    -29.22","    -29.07","    -24.07","    -16.50","    -14.21","    -13.18","    -12.07","    -11.00","    -10.05","     -9.02","     -8.10","     -7.12","     -6.03","     -5.15","     -4.21","     -3.01","     -1.76","     -1.63","     -1.57","     -1.67","     -1.69","     -1.57","     -1.57","     -1.53","     -1.59","     -1.57","     -1.57","     -1.57","     -1.57"
    Diurnal warming from sunshine, 
"04/09/2014 17:00","","","","    -29.56","   
1016.21","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","",""
"04/09/2014 18:00","","","","    -28.92","   1016.48","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","",""
"04/09/2014 19:00","","","","    -27.78","   1016.89","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","",""

 Sun 22.75 degrees above the horizon, coldest ice layer got deeper below surface,
the horizon was low:
"04/09/2014 20:00","     72.5308","   -149.5734","GPS","    -26.88","   1017.57","      0.04","      1.54","      0.00","     -1.54","    -23.88","    -24.89","    -24.78","    -25.08","    -21.35","    -16.19","    -14.34","    -13.25","    -12.07","    -11.00","    -10.05","     -8.96","     -8.04","     -7.12","     -6.03","     -5.08","     -4.21","     -3.01","     -1.76","     -1.63","     -1.63","     -1.67","     -1.69","     -1.57","     -1.57","     -1.53","     -1.59","     -1.51","     -1.50","     -1.57","     -1.63"
"04/09/2014 21:00","","","","    -25.81","   1017.98","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","",""
"04/09/2014 22:00","","","","    -25.17","   1018.59","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","",""
"04/09/2014 23:00","","","","    -24.20","   1018.93","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","",""
  The more than 22 degree in altitude sun significantly warmed the top of snow
by almost 6 degrees, the top ice layers even more, because of twin thermal heating from sun and sea.  
"04/10/2014 00:00","     72.5304","   -149.5623","GPS","    -23.71","   1018.86","      0.04","      1.54","      0.00","     -1.54","    -15.85","    -17.05","    -16.57","    -16.86","    -17.62","    -15.62","    -14.27","    -13.31","    -12.07","    -11.00","    -10.05","     -8.96","     -8.04","     -7.12","     -6.03","     -5.08","     -4.21","     -3.01","     -1.82","     -1.63","     -1.63","     -1.67","     -1.69","     -1.51","     -1.57","     -1.59","     -1.65","     -1.57","     -1.57","     -1.57","     -1.63"

Lowest horizon,  surface temperature stall,  bottom melting:
"04/10/2014 01:00","","","","    -23.43","   1018.99","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","",""
"04/10/2014 02:00","","","","    -23.47","   1018.99","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","",""
"04/10/2014 03:00","","","","    -24.04","   1019.20","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","",""

 Lower sun. Diurnal cooling well in play, coldest layer rises:
"04/10/2014 04:00","     72.5299","   -149.5554","GPS","    -25.33","   1019.20","      0.04","      1.54","      0.00","     -1.54","    -14.53","    -16.23","    -18.78","    -19.45","    -17.05","    -15.24","    -14.08","    -13.25","    -12.13","    -11.06","    -10.05","     -9.02","     -8.04","     -7.12","     -6.03","     -5.15","     -4.21","     -3.07","     -1.82","     -1.63","     -1.63","     -1.67","     -1.69","     -1.57","     -1.50","     -1.53","     -1.65","     -1.57","     -1.50","     -1.57","     -1.63"
"04/10/2014 05:00","","","","    -26.97","   1019.20","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","",""
"04/10/2014 06:00","","","","    -28.61","   1019.20","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","",""
"04/10/2014 07:00","","","","    -28.91","   1019.33","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","",""
"04/10/2014 08:00","     72.5301","   -149.5535","GPS","    -29.70","   1019.47","      0.05","      1.54","      0.00","     -1.54","    -30.09","    -30.15","    -29.79","    -27.17","    -18.95","    -15.43","    -14.08","    -13.25","    -12.13","    -11.06","    -10.05","     -9.02","     -8.10","     -7.12","     -6.09","     -5.15","     -4.27","     -3.07","     -1.88","     -1.63","     -1.63","     -1.67","     -1.69","     -1.57","     -1.50","     -1.59","     -1.65","     -1.57","     -1.57","     -1.57","     -1.63"
Sun elevation -8.9 degrees
"04/10/2014 09:00","","","","    -30.14","   1019.47","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","",""
"04/10/2014 10:00","","","","    -30.53","   1019.67","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","",""
Bottom refroze latent heat of fusion released
"04/10/2014 11:00","","","","    -29.99","   1019.47","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","",""
 Sun Elevation -7.2 degrees, entering dawn light, ice bottom froze 2 cm,  the heat produced has changed the diurnal cooling rate, coldest layer back at top of snow, sun and more light will be seen much earlier:
"04/10/2014 12:00","     72.5304","   -149.5509","GPS","    -30.35","   1019.20","      0.05","      1.56","      0.00","     -1.56","    -31.04","    -31.04","    -30.68","    -28.00","    -19.51","    -15.75","    -14.27","    -13.31","    -12.13","    -11.06","    -10.11","     -9.09","     -8.10","     -7.18","     -6.09","     -5.21","     -4.27","     -3.07","     -1.88","     -1.63","     -1.63","     -1.67","     -1.69","     -1.57","     -1.57","     -1.59","     -1.65","     -1.57","     -1.57","     -1.57","     -1.63"

--------------------------------------------------
It seems plausible that a diurnal cooling refreeze may induce further thickness increase than just the earlier melted layer. 
----------------------------------------------------

It is not always that simple,  when the weather is cloudy with some occasional clearing, accretion is chaotic,  here is one example:

VERY SLOW accretion (complicated autumnal action)

Buoy 2013l An October day of data acquisition over Arctic Basin Near Alaska:

"10/12/2013 08:00","","","","     -9.55","   1012.25","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","",""
"10/12/2013 09:00","","","","     -9.09","   1012.25","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","",""
"10/12/2013 10:00","","","","     -8.37","   1012.25","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","",""

The ice is thick enough to stop "super accretion" but still most of the time warmer than the air, an adiabatic surface to air interface should increase thickness though:
"10/12/2013 11:00","     75.2560","   -154.5052","GPS","     -8.38","   1012.18","      0.09","      1.00","      0.00","     -1.00","     -6.59","     -5.46","     -4.52","     -3.95","     -3.51","     -3.14","     -2.70","     -2.13","     -1.57","     -1.50","     -1.44","     -1.50","     -1.57","     -1.50","     -1.50","     -1.57","     -1.57","     -1.63","     -1.57","     -1.44","     -1.57","     -1.44","     -1.57","     -1.38","     -1.38","     -1.50","     -1.44","     -1.44","     -1.44","     -1.50","     -1.50"

Detached diurnal warming all the action is in the air,  there is no sense of temperature direction:
"10/12/2013 12:00","","","","     -8.66","   1012.24","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","",""
"10/12/2013 13:00","","","","     -9.17","   1012.04","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","",""
"10/12/2013 14:00","","","","     -9.56","   1012.18","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","",""
"10/12/2013 15:00","     75.2704","   -154.5744","GPS","    -10.87","   1012.38","      0.10","      1.00","      0.00","     -1.00","     -6.97","     -5.40","     -4.46","     -3.95","     -3.58","     -3.14","     -2.70","     -2.13","     -1.57","     -1.50","     -1.44","     -1.50","     -1.57","     -1.50","     -1.50","     -1.57","     -1.57","     -1.63","     -1.57","     -1.44","     -1.57","     -1.44","     -1.50","     -1.38","     -1.38","     -1.44","     -1.38","     -1.44","     -1.44","     -1.57","     -1.50"

Probable diurnal cooling (cloud clears):
"10/12/2013 16:00","","","","    -11.59","   1012.45","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","",""
"10/12/2013 17:00","","","","    -12.38","   1012.39","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","",""
"10/12/2013 18:00","","","","    -13.77","   1012.38","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","",""
"10/12/2013 19:00","     75.2808","   -154.6458","GPS","    -13.36","   1012.25","      0.09","      1.00","      0.00","     -1.00","     -8.79","     -5.90","     -4.52","     -4.02","     -3.58","     -3.14","     -2.70","     -2.20","     -1.57","     -1.50","     -1.44","     -1.50","     -1.57","     -1.50","     -1.50","     -1.57","     -1.57","     -1.63","     -1.57","     -1.44","     -1.57","     -1.44","     -1.50","     -1.38","     -1.38","     -1.44","     -1.44","     -1.44","     -1.44","     -1.50","     -1.50"
"10/12/2013 20:00","","","","    -13.12","   1012.25","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","",""
"10/12/2013 21:00","","","","    -13.47","   1012.39","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","",""
"10/12/2013 22:00","","","","    -13.36","   1012.25","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","",""
"10/12/2013 23:00","     75.2940","   -154.7277","GPS","    -12.99","   1011.98","      0.09","      1.00","      0.00","     -1.00","     -9.48","     -6.28","     -4.71","     -4.08","     -3.64","     -3.20","     -2.70","     -2.13","     -1.57","     -1.50","     -1.44","     -1.50","     -1.50","     -1.50","     -1.50","     -1.57","     -1.57","     -1.63","     -1.57","     -1.44","     -1.57","     -1.44","     -1.57","     -1.38","     -1.38","     -1.50","     -1.44","     -1.44","     -1.44","     -1.50","     -1.50"
"10/12/2013 23:59","","","","    -12.50","   1011.70","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","",""
"10/13/2013 01:00","","","","    -11.66","   1011.43","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","",""
"10/13/2013 02:00","","","","    -10.92","   1011.16","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","",""
"10/13/2013 03:00","     75.3098","   -154.8211","GPS","    -10.40","   1011.02","      0.10","      1.01","      0.00","     -1.01","     -7.79","     -6.09","     -4.83","     -4.20","     -3.70","     -3.20","     -2.70","     -2.20","     -1.57","     -1.50","     -1.44","     -1.50","     -1.57","     -1.50","     -1.50","     -1.57","     -1.57","     -1.63","     -1.57","     -1.44","     -1.57","     -1.44","     -1.50","     -1.38","     -1.38","     -1.50","     -1.44","     -1.44","     -1.44","     -1.50","     -1.50"
"10/13/2013 04:00","","","","     -9.98","   1010.68","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","",""
"10/13/2013 05:00","","","","     -9.54","   1010.34","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","",""
"10/13/2013 06:00","","","","     -8.93","   1010.28","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","",""
"10/13/2013 07:00","     75.3285","   -154.9179","GPS","     -8.02","   1010.07","      0.09","      1.00","      0.00","     -1.00","     -6.78","     -5.71","     -4.83","     -4.27","     -3.76","     -3.26","     -2.76","     -2.20","     -1.57","     -1.44","     -1.44","     -1.50","     -1.50","     -1.50","     -1.50","     -1.57","     -1.57","     -1.63","     -1.50","     -1.44","     -1.50","     -1.44","     -1.50","     -1.38","     -1.38","     -1.44","     -1.44","     -1.44","     -1.44","     -1.50","     -1.50"
"10/13/2013 08:00","","","","     -7.09","   1010.07","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","",""
"10/13/2013 09:00","","","","     -6.23","   1009.80","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","",""
"10/13/2013 10:00","","","","     -5.57","   1009.66","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","",""
"10/13/2013 11:00","     75.3509","   -155.0021","GPS","     -4.94","   1009.53","      0.09","      1.00","      0.00","     -1.00","     -5.33","     -5.21","     -4.71","     -4.27","     -3.76","     -3.26","     -2.76","     -2.20","     -1.57","     -1.50","     -1.44","     -1.50","     -1.57","     -1.50","     -1.50","     -1.57","     -1.57","     -1.63","     -1.57","     -1.44","     -1.57","     -1.44","     -1.50","     -1.38","     -1.38","     -1.50","     -1.44","     -1.44","     -1.44","     -1.50","     -1.50"
"10/13/2013 12:00","","","","     -4.55","   1009.32","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","",""
"10/13/2013 13:00","","","","     -4.06","   1009.19","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","",""
"10/13/2013 14:00","","","","     -3.81","   1009.11","","","","","

  And so it went on until finally a gain, note the presence of an inversion the horizon rose:
"10/13/2013 15:00","     75.3721","   -155.0279","GPS","     -3.23","   1009.53","      0.09","      1.00","      0.00","     -1.00","     -3.95","     -4.58","     -4.52","     -4.14","     -3.76","     -3.32","     -2.76","     -2.20","     -1.57","     -1.50","     -1.44","     -1.50","     -1.50","     -1.50","     -1.50","     -1.50","     -1.57","     -1.63","     -1.57","     -1.44","     -1.57","     -1.44","     -1.57","     -1.38","     -1.44","     -1.44","     -1.38","     -1.44","     -1.44","     -1.50","     -1.50"

   Diurnal cooling, sign of cold air advection or clearing sky:
"10/13/2013 16:00","","","","     -4.21","   1009.80","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","",""
"10/13/2013 17:00","","","","     -5.48","   1010.34","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","",""
"10/13/2013 18:00","","","","     -6.28","   1010.55","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","",""
    Note the increase in thickness was somehow tied with the overnight inversion:
"10/13/2013 19:00","     75.3816","   -154.9967","GPS","     -7.24","   1011.16","      0.09","      1.01","      0.00","     -1.01","     -5.90","     -4.71","     -4.33","     -4.02","     -3.76","     -3.32","     -2.82","     -2.26","     -1.57","     -1.50","     -1.44","     -1.50","     -1.57","     -1.50","     -1.50","     -1.57","     -1.57","     -1.63","     -1.57","     -1.44","     -1.57","     -1.44","     -1.50","     -1.38","     -1.38","     -1.44","     -1.38","     -1.44","     -1.44","     -1.50","     -1.50"
"10/13/2013 20:00","","","","     -8.54","   1011.29","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","",""
"10/13/2013 21:00","","","","    -12.53","   
-------------------------------------------------------------
 Thinner ice mixed with clouds makes the analysis difficult,  if observed visually ,  simultaneously at buoy location,  physical processes understanding would be much more comprehensive.  


  WD June 19-20 2014

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