Saturday, April 27, 2013

Significant dropping horizon near the North Pole.

~ A lowering of the horizon with the sun risen by 3.1 degrees
~ Likely what is not seen which causes stronger than expected effect

    Expectations were met with a bit of a surprise,  a visibly thick drop can be observed readily throughout the horizon.  This implicates thin ice.  Thicker ice should have had a slower drop because thicker ice has lost a lot of heat during the long night.   Thinner ice warms up quicker from above and from the warmer water below. The formulation and calculation of how thick the ice is will take time and effort,  but it can be determined by comparing with other locations with known thickness.  ---- Read more about this new scientific method with the next article below.  WDApril 27, 2013

And the falling horizon continues.......

The gap is huge, potentially indicating a great melting is occuring.  A 170 cm horizon should drop about .57 minutes of arc per sun rising degrees.  If the ice is 170 cm
thick the gap should be 2.28 arc minutes wide,  I measure about 2.4' of arc drop making the ice about 2 meters thick.  .   errata,  the scale used was incorrect,   2.4' of arc is not possible to determine with the resolution of this picture.  the gap was closer to 22' of arc suggesting a significant thermal event,  which may have been caused by significantly thinner ice or wide open water.     April 30, 2013  ----May 2 correction May 3

Cam 1   definite signs of melting from the snow top:

     Cam1 has no such great drop of horizon,  that is better,  no ridging means that there are fewer recent leads near by.  It represents the majority of ice surface about the Pole.
The resolution of the NOAA pictures is such that a drop of the horizon can only be seen
when the sun is much further up in elevation.  Higher resolution upgrade of either the camera or photo processing would show a shifting horizon.  But since we have none, implies we must wait until the sun rises a further 5 or 6 degrees before it shows.

    Astounding!  The snow surface is in sublimation mode,  this is what snow looks like when it disappears quickly.     The effect of the sun at 12-16 degrees elevation bombarding sea ice surface demonstrates without a doubt that both ice and air has warmed considerably,   this type of snow is a precursor to water puddles  WD May 4 2013

Despite ridging a small perceptible drop can be seen:

     Its not big, but if you zoom after moving to desktop there is a small likely significant drop especially on top of radiometer.  The resolution of camera shot is such that a precise
measurement is difficult.   The snow nodules got drifted over, and it has been very cloudy and foggy near the pole, this slows the melt progress quite a lot.
WD May 12, 2013

      Significant drop is clearly large

   near North Pole horizon shows up significantly lower when sun is 10 degrees higher.  
There was ridging at right side of radiometers.  But the left side has undeniable lowered horizon, normally I would expect this drop to be about 4' of arc or more,  NOAA picture drop is greater than that.  WD May 25, 2013

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