Major Circulation change in place for spring 2021

 ~Last few later winter circulation pattern vanished.  

~North Hemisphere current prime CTNP  has been anchored North Central Siberia for a long time

~2021 spring summer weather will of course be different in many locations.  

  At present, the great Canadian Archipelago Spring CTNP (coldest vortice) has a hard time establishing itself, largely because there has been a constant streaming of North Pacific warm cyclones destroying its formation,  on every 2 or 3 days of build up this vortice gets banged up by cyclonic heat advection.  As a result Siberia has dominated as CTNP prime region,  shifting the entire circulation picture of North America,  from mainly cold to much warmer:  

NOAA daily composite March 1 to 17 picture at 600 mb temperature,  roughly the weighted temperature of the entire troposphere,  has morphed from, 1977;  when the North Pole was CTNP prime vortex, 2012:  by continental split vortices,  very bad for sea ice,  2016;  very strong El-Nino year , again with the spit cold temperature vortices,  2020,  really 2018, 19, 20 dominant Archipelago CTNP.,to 2021 the North Pacific flow year so far.   Basically if this continues,  and there are no signs otherwise.  It will be a dry summer for much of North America,  particularly mi-west eastwards. What really matters for California coastal fires  is the green to yellow threshold,  basically the jet stream hangout region,  in 1977 it was close to Mexico USA border,  now well to the North.   The early preliminary tentative outlook is for  very warm weather to come,  refraction measurements of vertical sun disks also suggest this will be warmest year in history yet again.  WD March 21 2021...

How does the CTNP move? Wherever the ground feedbacks it.

 ~Ongoing essay on predicting the location of the Cold Temperature North Pole

~ The most underrated weather factor,  the location of the CTNP,  in fact rules the world hemispheres weather.

~Locating where they will be basically enables long term weather projections to be easy. 

~Short term wise as well

~Refraction techniques can laser predict wether the CTNP be, or not.  

    CTNP's are known to mainly slowly wobble,  from one point to the next.   Or surprisingly vanish only to reappear thousands of kilometers away.  They basically control weather circulation of planetary waves,  nothing more important weather or climate wise.  The mystery is why do they wobble in the first place,  rather than be moving around according to basic meteorological tenures;

A common contradiction,  CMC 700 mb map,   pressure contour isoclines  do not consistently match  the true center of what would be the coldest point on the Eurasian Continent in the morning of March 5, 2021,  -36 C is well off center.  I would rather pick from a 600 mb map,  but it is not easy to find.  However,  this should indicate that the center of cold is unstable,  in motion,  as they very rarely remain in place, with great understanding that such an event on rotating Earth would be fascinating.  

   The main problem with respect to predict where the CTNP will move is extremely complex.   With numerous variables to consider.   Probably the most complex component, on top of advection, clouds,  radiation balance, presence or lack of precipitation,  albedo, insolation,   on top of all these,  is surface properties.  Not a black and white issue at all,   water surface alone, is not as simple as a mirror lake, the waves,  and there are many kinds of waves, the mixing going about,  salt,  fresh water,  top it with ice, grey, fast, 1 year, multiyear, snow covered, hummocked,  ridged,  mix pans including all types,  not forgetting ice and open water combinations.  And we go to land, more complex than water surfaces,  by wildly varying topographical features,  what is on it,  vegetation, rocks,  a mix of both, flooding, snow, and snow cover is not uniform at all:

06/00 ,  06/12 and 07/00 UTC CMC 700 mb  analysis.  Nowhere else to go but Northeastwards,  the warmer North American side CTNP heads North.  While so,  it will get warmer much further South.   This far away action will only be felt as a significant warming,  innocuous, strange, announced as if it appears like magic, in  Windsor Ontario for instance,  jump warming from -3 to +11 C.  The movement of this CTNP also engenders the jet stream to bring up a blizzard giving warm cyclone from left.  In this case North Greenland is the coldest place in North America, until the CTNP moves further towards Spitsbergen,  not far away from an Eurasian cold cell buildup. But this cold center was created by steady weather,  a mere day or two,  over the Archipelago,,  no significant wind,  clear air,  the recent past warmed by advection  surface vanished,  quickly building extreme cold in its wake, until by virtue of its presence,  the general circulation changed favoring instability.  If there was greater factors,  such as profound long night continuous cooling in  the Canadian Arctic,  this CTNP might have outgrown itself creating rogue vortices 2000 nautical miles further South.    But it isn't winter 2020-21 thing,  which was mainly a late weaker cooling of the Canadian Arctic namely because the prime CTNP of Northern Hemisphere started and stayed in Eurasia for a long time.   However,  in a mere two days,  the weighted temperature of the entire atmosphere dropped quickly.  If circumstances were other,  the Low pressure on this animation above would have headed South instead.  But for now,  the surface ground and icy ocean "fridge walls" are bereft of deep cooling potential,  the power to fabricate colder air not as strong as it was decades or so back.   

March 07 1200 UTC

North Greenland is where the CTNP exists:

The 700 mb Low of 2680 meters is the CTNP.  

Automatically changing the weather all around it.  High altitude winds spin around it , in fact the jet stream is at the North Pole

   

                    There are 2  Polar Vortices at present 

                                                                        There is a  CTNP  in NE Siberia,  the two are close enough                                                                             to cause this jet.   (250 mb map).

North Greenland is not part of the giant glacier Greenland is famous for. It is like Ellesmere Island,

here March 7 Polar View SAR demonstrates it still has a lot of snow.    Now there can be a buildup of cold but it wont be wide, cant be done next to the Atlantic Ocean, the only place to expand is Northwards where the sea ice has been at record low thickness,  so it is stuck in place,  vulnerable,  not ground for cold air expansion. Unlike where much further West the new CTNP forms.  

       To know when the grounds are fertile to create more winter,  it is not just a matter of darkness,  stable atmosphere,  although these are the core factors,  but even now,  the low sun does not create more cold for much of North American Arctic.  What is needed, is for the ground to be deeply frozen, for sea ice to be extremely thick.  A CTNP can exist much further South, given that its grounds are deep frozen for a long time,  the Polar Vortex expands in such happenings.  In many instances the CTNP can be created locally,  1000 nautical miles away from the Arctic.  But to know whether the grounds are apt to do so requires a multi parameter simplifier.    Because the grounds can be immensely complicated:

   Snow cover alone is very far from homogenous,  can't be simplified at all.  Here we have multiple layer forms,  the darker one is ice formed in a wind blizzard, sublimation of which can't be compared with grainy snow cover,  which always changes by the wind.  Here is another factor visible by the halo

ice crystals in sufficient quantities falling from a warmer atmosphere above can alter the energy balance of the surface as well.

   Not to forget ,  a flat snow surface one day may change to snow desert dunes the next,  these increase sublimation as a cooling factor.  

     A new optical refraction method easily recognizes the varying energy flux on the surface,  over wide areas,  as far as the horizon can be.  Also sun disk measurements identify uniform atmosphere or a mixed thermal mash up,  unstable for cold build up.  Through such observations,  we can identify whether deep cooling will build or be demolished.  WD March 7 2021

Winter circulation stall not giving cold from the Arctic, but blocking pattern in the Arctic

~Most fascinating CTNP  parks at the central US Canadian border 

~Meanwhile,  it was substantially warmer in the Canadian High Arctic due to moderate Cyclone stall injecting a lot of warm air,  giving a weird scenario;  High Arctic  -20 C in clear blue skies for a week, 12 C warmer than seasonal.  

 From preceding EH2r article, Ellesmere Island reigned coldest spot in the world only for a few days,  then a strong Cyclone SE of Canadian Archipelago stalled, injected North Atlantic air quickly nullifying its deep freezing status.  This reorganized the centers of the now split Polar Vortex, one for each continent , of which the Canadian one's center reformed much further South,  it has been there since February 10.  Often the Canadian side Polar Vortex remained stable North of Hudson Bay,  recent winter history made this Polar Vortex create rogue vortices.  Not at present though.  If we look at this NOAA animation above,  we clearly see the Canadian PV become much colder at its center, not from Arctic origins,  but self made,  this is yet another frequent recent winters occurrence,  and so in tandem the rest of the US,  particularly Southern US deep froze without the Vortex being blamed,  from what weather broadcasters usually call "Arctic dome... Arctic blast" hovering above them.  600 mb is the pressure level which represents the temperature of the entire atmosphere the most.  It would be very accurate to posit the recent spate of record US cold weather to this circulation stall along with cold weather flow not moving fast: 

2020 same period, center of the single by-continental Polar Vortex was much further North,  favoring a warmer US,  especially NE US coast.  2021 extreme warming of the Arctic is in fact the Climate Change news that never gets heard of,  but this change plays havoc with traditional climate patterns, the smaller North American PV vortex of winter 2020-21 leads to rarely seen but now known results.  WD Feb 18, 2021

ASIAN Rogue vortice precedes massive Continental prime CTNP switchover

~ The Asian rogue vortice marked the end of the Siberian  Cold Temperature North Pole

~The North Pacific ocean quickly vanished it despite being huge

~But this was a sign of very important circumstances change on Continental scales.  

    Following the Niagara Rogue vortice came the Sakhalin Rogue on February 4,  massive and super cold (-38 at 700 mb),  it had no chance to last long thanks to the warmed North Pacific:

Sakhalin Island had a brief encounter with a rogue vortice,  just North of Hokkaido Island Japan,  the coldest air in the world lasted less than one day, the CTNP reappeared 5232 km in a mere few hours to Ellesmere Island .  This rogue was propelled towards an unforgiving Pacific blob of warmer sea surface temperatures.  The consequence neatly shows how important surface physical properties are with respect to the entire atmosphere immediately above.  Conversely,  we look at the rapid warming of Siberian air column as opposed to the Canadian Archipelago sudden deep cooling. As I am right under the Canadian cooling side,  I can attest 2 major converging factors making it so.  The top of snow temperature T*** has suddenly become much colder than surface air 2 meters above, explainable by the fact that permafrost active layer has finally cooled (to the equivalent point to places with far less snow cover which happened several weeks ago).  Secondly the atmosphere has dried further more, having shed away the last remnants of moisture coming from open sea water now covered by sea ice.    South Siberia had less snow cover than Ellesmere,  and the new wave of deep cold can be traced to that Island, its thick snow blanket insulation finally gave way to the normalization of temperatures only time can provide in total darkness.   The heat capacity of land is lesser than snow, so the rising South Siberian sun played a role in vanishing Siberias reign of winter coldest for current winter 2020-21.  WD February 7,  2021

The latest greatest rogue Vortice, North American style

 ~Whilst dying in the Atlantic a new far colder rogue formed just North of Hokkaido Japan.  

~At present Siberian dominated Polar Vortex is morphing into late winter configuration.

    26 January 2021,  the Polar vortex was seen stretched and mangled by warmth on North American side, but -51 C surface weather strong in Siberia,  above with a  -35 C 700 mb CTNP (Cold Temperature North Pole of the entire Northern Hemisphere).  North Ellesmere and Greenland paled in coldness,  at 700 mb -28 C.  But well Southwards a rogue vortice was taking shape. Now centered in the middle of Ontario Manitoba border at -26 C (all temperatures from now will be at 700 mb).  Inujuaq Northern Quebec -12 C  makes  the rogue formation imminent.  The Northern Quebec region was too warm.  January 27,  the Southern Canada vortice of Polar Vortex vortices,   seemed to stall, inching Eastwards still at -26 C.  On the 28^th Imujuaq  1200 UTC holds at -14 C.  Temperatures across Northern Ontario and Central Quebec plummet.  Day 29  Niagara Falls ROGUE ahoy!   Above the 7th wonder.   Now home of the  -26 C vortice while temperatures in Manitoba and  adjoining Ontario warmed substantially.  This vortice formed a neat break from the Polar Vortex.  Like a huge blob ,  the P.V.  gave birth to a  roundish baby vortex spanning from James Bay to Nova-Scotia , from Niagara to New Brunswick.  On the 30^th,  Nothing,  nearly nothing seen left of it,  remnants almost vanished by colliding with North Atlantic Gulf stream Cyclone, as usual,   it is too warm for vortices to keep whole above warm ocean and Low pressure heat.  It wasn’t a long span survivor.  Meanwhile, the greater circumpolar Polar Vortex becomes a slick roundish zone  reforming 2000 miles Northwards,  reconsolidating,  struggling to spread further South.   While the Siberian CTNP started to warm a new far East Asian rogue forms. …….  WD Feb 3 2021

Brrrrr! Surface temperature -57 C in Siberia, the Cold Temperature North Pole Vortice of the hour, but its warmer everywhere else

 ~Siberia CTNP dominates winter 2020-21 in Northern Hemisphere 

~New Refraction method helps identify the likeliest protogenesis system causing cold air buildups. Massive cooling areas can stem by very complex geophysical factors,  luckily rendered simple by interface observations.  

~  In one feedback loop,  more snow comes from more clouds, in another loop the deep snow insulated ground cover saves the permafrost from rapidly rising reaching air in Arctic darkness, slowing the ground cooling process.    In other words,  darkness combined with lack of snow cover favors thermal radiation  escaping to space,  especially in areas far away from cyclones bringing warm air advection. 

   How does a winter area reach -57 C when it just was warmest year in history?  CMC January 22 1800 UTC surface map.  Note near sea ice shore its 20 to 25 C warmer,  

     

  The closest readily available Polarview SAR image to CTNP cold center,  suggests not so deep snow cover furtherest away from sea shore.   The surface temperature CTNP is North of lake Baikal,  a feature well above top of picture.   Here we see and realize that heat from the Arctic Ocean is tempered mostly by first year sea ice, undeniably a great warming source many times greater than by greenhouse gases.  

Extraordinary Refraction optical method directly immediately identifies when cold air is created, has confirmed 2021 winter far lesser capable in creating a very cold vortice on the Canadian side of the North Pole. 

        There are so many air freezing factors:  differing snow layers,  the shape of  ice crystals and snow flakes, snow density, sea ice thickness, heat from covered sea water, cloud cover, sublimation rates, winds, precipitation columns.... These factors spaced over thousands of varying in nature square Kilometers,  gives super computers a prediction deficit which most of us are familiar with.  But optical refraction observations at Canadian side Arctic subsisting over thicker snow cover, has confirmed interface warmth being greatly favored,   completely diminishing Northern Ellesmere and Greenland CTNP vortice to yield to Siberian freezing dominance.  

  Unfortunately,  we lack specific snow density data,  but Canadian Cryosphere Watch  snow cover thickness gives us some clues.  Lake Baikal area,  the current super cold spot  (grey and red) has a deficit in snow as opposed to near the East Siberian sea.   But look at Ellesmere 

swamped with snow,  in fact this Canadian  Island, usually the home of the coldest Vortice of the Northern Hemisphere,  currently has an excess of snow, a  + 100 cm  departure (purple).   The surface temperatures there are 32 C warmer than Siberian Minimum.  A more seasonal snow cover, less than 20 cm,  has dense cement like snow, leaving hardly a footprint,  making a person not sink in by a sublimation rendered  thick upper crust .   But a thicker snow layer stops the permafrost from teaming up with colder air from rapidly freezing the active ground layer, soil or rocks just below the surface.  At present this thicker snow column is sheltering a significant sugar like layer just below top thinner sublimation induced hard crust.  This granular snow,  far less dense than top crust,  prevented deep air cooling from appearing early during this long Arctic night.

     Without mid winter deep snow,  the Arctic becomes its perineal image,  very cold,  the engine of winter itself.  Must keep in mind 2020 record low polar sea ice extent and thinnest as well, along with much longer wider areas of open sea water leading up to December,  giving abnormal total precipitation columns.   Southern Siberia,  a vast area of land away from moisture sources,  is a favorably dry place.  However, as the end of long night approaches,  the role of deeper snow will flip temperature effects.   The permafrost active layer eventually will cool as much as earlier snow free grounds,  causing its thick

snow carpet density to increase in later winter,  guaranteeing a cold spring even during the gradual longer transitional sunny days,  even well after the shinning midnight sun.   

    The dye is set,  for now the CTNP will be Siberian until sun rays will rapidly warm its snowier free grounds, then so,  Ellesmere will have a bitter cold spring under the coldest vortice in the world. 

    There are so many variables causing extremely cold vortices within the Polar Vortex,  one can get lost in their causations.  But it comes down to 2 features;   the night,   over suitable favorable surface freezing conditions.  How deeply surface air cools depends on whether the interface between land/sea and atmosphere allows available surface heat to flee or to be caught in numerous feedback loops.  WD January 22,2021

       

Complex temperature role reversal. Siberia, from hottest summer to coldest thus far winter

 ~The reign of Ellesmere and North Greenland Cold temperature North Pole has been seriously challenged

~Rather changed,  the CTNP of winter 20-21 was often found in Central to Eastern Siberia.

~Is rather an indication of a moderate La-Nina,  and something as simple as the nature of surface snow. 

    2020 will be likely #1 shared  with 2016 Global warmest year in history,  as predicted in April here,  from the same EH2r projection page a small El-Nino,  or trending El-Nino happened April-May (the sun disk refraction method expected so) then a modest La-Nina gradually came about (very difficult to predict because of this blob,  ENSO trends were strongly masked by the North Pacific warm temperature blob. One of the greatest factors of 2020 making the warmest Global temperature as was in 2016 (the year of super strong El-Nino) ,  was the worldwide diminution of pollution activities due to Covid-19.   Summer came to be hot because of this, with dire consequences including USA West coast very damaging Armageddon wild fires,  along with Siberia temperatures at +30 C.   

    Arctic sea ice extent at September minima came very close to beat 2012,  just off prediction by 1 step , #2 least expansive sea ice at minima,  this still has serious consequences though,  which brings us to the topic at hand.  Since onset of winter the prime CTNP,  was mostly centered in Siberia, a strange turn of events, the hottest Siberian summer heat wave in history, preceded the coldest spot in current winter at about the same region. It may be a matter of snow,  largely how compact it is,   in the Canadian Arctic, with snow covering the permafrost was/is strangely  less compacted (due to extensive cloud cover and record warm temperatures),    having greater insulation properties,  this should have reinforced cooling especially in total Darkness:

SAR image 10-01-21 ,  Ellesmere Island, likely warmed by thinner sea ice (black) everywhere surrounding, except its Northern most point.  A strong CTNP often hovers over this Island year round.   The dark Fjords are all with fast ice (new and thin), except for a few multi year floes.  There is apparently a great deal of snow over Ellesmere,  not having any effect on  pronounced cooling,  as one would expect.  

    While Siberia seems to have less cement snow cover:

East Siberian sea shore,  likely with a lesser snow carpet than Ellesmere,  the recently frozen sea ice (dark area), has white layers in it,  meaning different age of sea ice or ridging due to movement.  SAR satellite picture acquires some snow on land on this band,  not so for sea ice.   

    Given that sea ice was second all time lowest extent at minima,  on both Arctic continents,  why is Siberia CTNP dominating at present? 

One good reason is the lower latitude snow line on the Eurasian side, but how does Siberia super hot summer morph into the coldest neighborhood of winter?  

The other reason was explained in April 2020 as linked on the URL above,  2020 summer CTNP was largely at the North Pole,

continuing all the way to autumn,  the Eurasian flow of air was from Ural's Eastwards,  a drier atmosphere, making the sudden onset of radiative cooling with lowering sun more impactful in Russia.   There is another plausible explanation,  La-Nina and the said Pacific warm temperature blob.  La-Nina effects were largely nullified over much of North America,  because of this Temp. blob.  However, the very warm North Pacific made it warmer for North America,  certainly not giving perfect weather, because of expansive prolonged periods of cloudiness.  La-Nina however modest,  is still about,  this reduced cloud cover all over the world except East of the North Pacific.  In the Arctic,  the upper atmosphere was indeed largely dry except for the very lowest altitudes,  all that open water from 2nd lowest historical Arctic sea ice extent has certainly made the Arctic warmer and snowier,  but the Polar  upper atmosphere was consistently devoid of moisture above about 1000 meters or so.  The Canadian vortice,  usually one of two vortices forming the Polar Vortex,  got less dominant and shrunken,  while Siberia with a dryer sky cover,  with lesser clouds.  acquiring snow faster and earlier,  was sufficient to shift the location of the coldest vortice of the Polar Vortex,  to reside East of Northern Russia.  WD January 10, 2021

 

Autumn 2020 great sun disk expansions, a measure of current extreme warming on either land and sea.

October 21 shots, with vertical diameters of 30.1 arc minutes at 1.5 and 1.2 degrees elevation,  Pretty much as expanded as can get,  surely an Arctic record. This came as fall measurements,  not frequently done because of increased moisture clashing with lesser solar radiation,  started with normal vertical diameters,  then a mid October warming caused this anomaly.  Entirely due to record low sea ice extent and re-injection of heat from the record warmest Arctic Ocean to the lower atmosphere.

These captures also indicated the viable existence of anomalous atmospheric warm spots,

 not mixed yet with the overall wider encompassing likely cooling Autumn air.  A rather infrequent observation while monitoring sun disk diameters.  The more expanded the vertical disk the warmer the air,  in fact its the most accurate measure of total atmospheric temperatures I know about.  2020 sea ice extent minima narrowly missed beating 2012.  But the current nature of remaining sea ice is overall thinner, therefore 2020 at this time is lowest extent in history.   A true indicator of unrelenting further melting in the cards. The implications lesser se ice are felt throughout the Northern Hemisphere,  the physics of which will be explained in subsequent article.  WD October 25 2020

 

Wretched state of sea ice in unfamiliar sector can accelerate flow exit towards Greenland sea

~A large water anomaly in the Greenland to Pole sector may cause even more exodus of sea ice

~2 nautical miles a day is about the average flow of sea ice,  with open water about this speed  easily can be multiplied quite a lot.

~83 North 8 West open water anomaly just had 20 km displacement in 2 days 3 times the normal speed:

     Astounding North of Greenland open water zone has just facilitated a massive displacement of sea ice,  which may not be read as melting,  but will surely result in greater melting.  

   CMC 0600 UTC  surface analysis displays a normal general circulation picture for late August,  which may result in even further melting results.  Of Note centre 1035 mb High  has clear air at its core centre, which indicates a switchover to fall scenario.  A similar in position long standing High pressure in June had mainly cloudy skies making remote sensing analysis difficult,  not counting as well the cloud saving nature it had of preserving sea ice.  Late August 2020 surface temperatures are also very warm, this will further delay the minima sea ice extent date.  WD August 28 2020

Slow cloud induced last month melting surprise

 ~ The speediest melt rate since 2012 and 16 slowed by weather dynamics is not quite finished surprising yet

~The current latest melting appears innocuous but is huge

August 13-17 North Spitzbergen   50 Km Resolution:

   Impressive Northwards massive melting despite wind flowing towards the South (roughly towards the right).

   Goodbye Waves Russian side morphing rapidly on Center Russian side of the Pole.  Somewhere about 10 km square melting.

WD August 17 2020