EH2R - latest work in progress

Saturday, April 28, 2018

2018 annual spring summer projection by mainly unorthodox underutilized optical methods PART 2

~ Past winter prognosis , remarkable contradictions.

The great Cold Temperature North Pole vortex of Western Canadian Arctic Archipelago.

We start at winter end, when contrary to present time most of the dark season Arctic was warmer and cloudy. Somehow the heat influence grasp of North Atlantic cyclones nearly constantly circumnavigating North Greenland from the East fell short of South of the 70th parallel, somehow the upper air got colder in an important sector of the Arctic, this cold air aggregate sprung out in force in March, it had multiple density layers causing amazing sunsets :

I have filmed a few Wegener blank strips over the years, this one was entirely complicated. This kiss of the mirror sun type, had amazing gravity waves in the lower frame, shown here ascending with the inverse lower sun disk limb. Up to 4 gravity waves mystically appeared bright adjoining the deep dark, blank zone, implying ducted light which got scattered out to extinction by the very long distance travelled, up to or in excess of 2000 kilometers.

Stacked Green flashes vanish as fast as they were created. Sunsets were for the most part shifted Northwards in March compared to previous 10 years, with one setting at -2.3 degrees below the horizon, a very rare recent 8 year occasion, much more common in 2002-2005 period, the last time this happened was once in 2014 and once in 2010 . April sunsets disappeared slightly Southwards than average. The near surface air in April was prominently adiabatic.

An apparent contradiction, this March 31 2018 sun disk vertical diameter is large, 24.90 arc minutes, at an altitude close to the horizon, 2018 horizon sun disks tended to be vertically thicker near the horizon, much diminished than average well above. This described the structure of the atmosphere, warmer very near the ground, much much colder in the upper atmosphere, in fact sun disk data was astounding:

What is the score?

Levels @ #1 Year Ranking

19 2016 First Place

14 2015 2

11 2006 3

9 2005 4

9 2009 4

9 2010 4

9 2011 4

9 2013 4

8 2012 5

5 2017 6

4 2004 7

4 2007 8

4 2008 9

4 2014 10

2 2002 11

1 2003 12

0 2018 ? 13 dead last

With more than 500 vertical sun disk measurements within 120 decimal levels, taken by high resolution telescope photos from -0.9 to 10.9 degrees astronomical elevations. Mostly with March and April data, February was cloudy. This 2018 '0' result is amazing, it implies a very cold Upper Atmosphere, in fact the coldest since the start of vertical sun disk measurements, mainly to the West of central Canadian Arctic Archipelago , a location not measured by soundings. Not one of 120 possible decimal elevation levels average sun disk diameters was all time highest. This forced me to look at the bottom of rankings vertical dimensions results for the first time ever, there is something peculiar about them, many occurred during La-Nina trending periods but mostly with neutral or neutral trending end of winters:

2002	-0.1	0.0	0.1	0.2	0.4	0.7	0.8	0.9	1.0	1.2	1.3	1.1
2003	0.9	0.6	0.4	0.0	-0.3	-0.2	0.1	0.2	0.3	0.3	0.4	0.4
2004	0.4	0.3	0.2	0.2	0.2	0.3	0.5	0.6	0.7	0.7	0.7	0.7
2005	0.6	0.6	0.4	0.4	0.3	0.1	-0.1	-0.1	-0.1	-0.3	-0.6	-0.8
2006	-0.8	-0.7	-0.5	-0.3	0.0	0.0	0.1	0.3	0.5	0.7	0.9	0.9
2007	0.7	0.3	0.0	-0.2	-0.3	-0.4	-0.5	-0.8	-1.1	-1.4	-1.5	-1.6
2008	-1.6	-1.4	-1.2	-0.9	-0.8	-0.5	-0.4	-0.3	-0.3	-0.4	-0.6	-0.7
2009	-0.8	-0.7	-0.5	-0.2	0.1	0.4	0.5	0.5	0.7	1.0	1.3	1.6
Year	DJF	JFM	FMA	MAM	AMJ	MJJ	JJA	JAS	ASO	SON	OND	NDJ
2010	1.5	1.3	0.9	0.4	-0.1	-0.6	-1.0	-1.4	-1.6	-1.7	-1.7	-1.6
2011	-1.4	-1.1	-0.8	-0.6	-0.5	-0.4	-0.5	-0.7	-0.9	-1.1	-1.1	-1.0
2012	-0.8	-0.6	-0.5	-0.4	-0.2	0.1	0.3	0.3	0.3	0.2	0.0	-0.2
2013	-0.4	-0.3	-0.2	-0.2	-0.3	-0.3	-0.4	-0.4	-0.3	-0.2	-0.2	-0.3
2014	-0.4	-0.4	-0.2	0.1	0.3	0.2	0.1	0.0	0.2	0.4	0.6	0.7
2015	0.6	0.6	0.6	0.8	1.0	1.2	1.5	1.8	2.1	2.4	2.5	2.6
2016	2.5	2.2	1.7	1.0	0.5	0.0	-0.3	-0.6	-0.7	-0.7	-0.7	-0.6
2017	-0.3	-0.1	0.1	0.3	0.4	0.4	0.2	-0.1	-0.4	-0.7	-0.9	-1.0
2018	-0.9	-0.8

Friday, April 27, 2018

2018 annual spring summer projection by mainly unorthodox underutilized optical methods

~Stunning sun disk results reveal the entire coming Northern Hemisphere circulation with ease.
~2018 will not be warmest year in history, not even close
~Sea ice is due to take a massive Arctic dipole and steady cyclone periods during same melt season
~The return of somewhat normal CAA Arctic Cold Temperature North Pole not literally seen since 2002

PART 1

For a change we start this years projection with Northern Hemisphere Global Circulations by season

APRIL MAY 2018:

There is a great area of colder air, in the C1 region, mainly in the Canadian Arctic Archipelago, it was and is remarkably steady and well structured. C1 is where the CTNP, Cold Temperature North Pole resides, not simply in the air but by marking an actual temperature footprint on land and sea, in a feedback loop. Vertical sun disk measurements results , acquired between February and April of mainly the Western from center CAA have been shocking, not one mean decimal elevation levels has been above average, 0, with more than 500 observations to date, I never encountered a 0 result before with respect and compared to thousands of sun disks sizes acquired from 2002-2017. It may be said to be a significant sigma event. But it does not mean that the entire Arctic is returning to normal colder temperatures, it is more like a consolidation of cold air in one region, part of the fascinating mystery of smaller areas of cold temperatures being particularly colder than a wider spanning area. This coldest zone affects the weather of the entire Northern Hemisphere. Is like a higher gravitation zone with planets, cyclones and anticyclones being planets, but with a different
spacial cosmic ray setting, ie land and sea affecting the structure done by the gravity exercised by the coldest zone. For the Canada and US it means coldest in the West warmest in the East weather.
For the Arctic, the coldest C1 maintains the Arctic ocean current Gyre by sending some of its coldest air feeding the hovering wobbling anticyclone mainly after interactions with cyclones on its east side of C1. The same goes for C2, the second cold air zone gravitas center , in the Barents sea area. The often present anticyclone North of Norway, an artifact of C2, will make NW Europe cooler, all while blocking North Atlantic cyclones from warming and clouding over the Arctic Ocean. North Pacific area cold air collapse was a long spanning event caused throughout the entire winter, present Bering sea ice scarce and decimated was the imprint of this. C3 was often a meek shadow of Siberian self throughout winter, therefore more cyclonic intrusions for Alaska, which has likely experienced one of their warmest winters in history, not so warm spring.

JUNE JULY 2018:

No doubt makes C1 area again the center of cold temperature Gravity , but the planetary system players switch roles. In the Arctic, a summer Low pressure becomes a cold air player , a High pressure a warm one, therefore as with each year summer since 2012 great sea ice melt, 2013 to 2017, gains a lesson learned, cold air lies where cyclones be. They are usually not substantial, I have documented them as "see through" cyclones since they have fewer clouds. A Low over the Arctic Ocean Gyre area will benefit by C1 cold source though, therefore cold Lows will descend Western Canada, Eastern Canada will gain heat from continental Highs, sometimes called Bermuda Highs when gaining the Atlantic. Lows should strike SW Europe at times, as C2 fades, some North Atlantic cyclones will cool off over the Arctic Ocean, adding to the North Pacific intrusions. The North Pacific often High pressure zone is the result in part from the steady presence of Arctic Ocean gyre cyclone and also the warmth acquired during the entire winter just past. It is during this June-July period again when the sea ice melts slows, because cold air in Arctic summer is a great cloud saver, they don't evaporate as quick as with anticyclones. Sea ice in the Pacific quadrant of the Pole will be decimated still especially next to Russia. We can see the Polar jet stream in green not being much of a player further South in the US, to the benefit of likely lesser tornadoes.

August September 2018:

What happens when there is only one cold cell left? If not completely faded, the entire planetary weather circulation system becomes smaller, but again the roles of the 'planets" , the Highs and Lows, switch back to their more winter like modes. It is in early August when we will be able to evaluate if the Arctic sea ice will have a new all time low extent in September. I think not so, but it will be very low sea ice extent, I think that ridging against the CAA coast will pack Arctic Ocean sea ice substantially, revealing an emaciated state it was under disguise by more scattered spreading from the continuous past years onslaught of further melting , not always captured well by remote sensing algorithms. The North East sea route should open first and expand to be near or at the North Pole, an amazing sight for those who know and for the world to behold, the Northwest passage larger Straits will be clogged with sea ice coming from the Arctic Ocean , finally hurricanes may strike East coast of US and Canada because the CTNP will reform late August, a magnet for Northwards cyclones from the East coast especially when very warm cyclones approach and reshape the Greenland High to extend Southwards. Western North America will finally have a summer, Eastern very hot but wet and stormy. WD April 27, 2018

Friday, April 20, 2018

Small but coldest airmass in 20 years moves towards Alaska, likely reinforcing the Arctic Ocean gyre High

~Optically significant event of very cold stable air mass centered in the West of Canadian Arctic Archipelago was made to move by warm cyclone interaction.

~Most significant coldest upper air measured by vertical sun disk method in 20 years, had remarkably stable properties lasting at least 4 weeks.

A steady area of cold air kept sun disks shrunken for nearly a month, but not near the surface, this particular nature of steadiness is interesting, but the level of cold was not seen since 2002,
which was several years after massive 1998 El-Nino, now likewise several years after massive El-Nino peaking end of 2015, we see the result of steady La-Nina influence of less clouds, particularly away from influx of Northern moisture from frequent North Atlantic warm cyclone injections, the dry air it seems, survived mainly to the West and South of central CAA. The West CTNP (Cold Temperature North Pole) vortex just recently got displaced Westwards towards Alaska:

We see CAA very cold vortex, a zone of clear air, been assaulted by massive cyclone from the Southwest, in fact the CTNP vortex dragged the cyclone Northeastwards, but it is as significantly deeply cold as any in the distant past, what we literally see is this cold air moving westwards towards Alaska in less than a day. CMC IR animation above comprises pictures from April 18 to Early April 20 2018.

Although the cold zone was moving Westward, surface temperatures did not seem to reflect so, in particular because of clear air sun warming as the day progressed from 12 18 00 and 06 UTC , seen here as the cyclone progressed Northwards (extreme right). In addition this cold zone had strange features of sun disks more compressed in the upper atmosphere rather than near the horizon, this cold atmospheric area had a complex upper air profile, more adiabatic near the surface, with very cold temperatures likely above 850 mb. Next day in morning we see where it moved has already changed the weather :

The entire area surface air has cooled further, CMC April 20 2018 12z. But rather the larger influence of a stable mass of cold atmosphere would be with consolidation of the Gyre High:

CMC 72 hours forecast based April 20 2018 at 00z. This forecast increased the anticyclone strength a bit , perhaps off by 5 to 10 mb, since the cold zone observed optically was never really measured by upper air soundings, it is a known uncertain player in a general circulation pattern really significant for sea ice, the Arctic Ocean Gyre High is a major contributor in reducing sea ice volume especially during spring and summer. The peculiar stable nature of the observed cold zone should not be underestimated, this gyre High may last quite a long time. WD April 20, 2018

Monday, March 26, 2018

Drying out Arctic Ocean atmosphere season use to be in early January

~30 years ago sea ice regained a lot of thickness every freezing season especially during darkness.
~Last 10 years thinner sea ice went along with a warming
~2017-18 near stagnant winter circulation patterns have equally changed

It took a long time to get this late March 2018 IR 10.8 microns picture of a drier North American Arctic, we see all sorts of sea and land features from Greenland to Alaska:

I can show 30 years past pictures when this dryness started in December. If history repeats itself, barring La-Nina going suddenly really strong, clouds of ice crystals from the cracking open of thinner sea ice will be strong coming mid April onwards, causing high albedo clouds to return. If so the drying season 2018 will last about 3 weeks, instead of the usual 15. It would be good for extensive cloudiness to return though sparing a great melt, for without massive overcast clouds throughout the melting season there would be no sea ice.

A circulation pattern, as explained on my previous articles, synergistically combined with thinner sea ice and warmer temperatures to drag out a pervasive moist or cloudy Arctic Ocean lower atmosphere until NW Europe got cold, this broke the pattern, at least for the North Atlantic side.
Again it took a long long time for West of Central Russian Arctic to cool to average temperatures.
Without this event, the Arctic would have not have a drier atmosphere all winter surely precipitating a guaranteed super melt come September.

Nevertheless impressive is the last 9 dark seasons of warmed up Arctic Ocean atmosphere:

DMI North of 80 surface temperature graph 2010-2018 is amazingly warmer compared to the recent past, note the year 2012 which had a late winter temperature drop similar 2018, 2015-2016 winter also was extensively warm influenced by a strong El-Nino, now compare with 1980-1988:

There were quite strong El-Ninos in the 80's, 1982-83 and 1986-88, barely showing any influence over the Arctic Ocean laced with much thicker sea ice, capable to travel on by humans from Russia to Canada, not requiring amphibious vehicles. for instance. But the colder temperatures then imply dryness, no need to show pictures, especially by inferring partial pressure of water vapor at lower temperatures alone.

The latest High Arctic data has shown some resurgence to dryer air, which is very good until the sun gets to high in the sky. This may be part of a re-surging towards La-Nina process, which if true would be a disaster, if lasting throughout the summer, mostly by clear air allowing the devastation of sea ice by the higher sun. But recent records show a propensity for ENSO to tend to stay toward El--Nino rather than La-Nina. WD March 26 2018

Wednesday, March 21, 2018

The case for Invisible Arctic clouds

~Following a long series of particularly unexplainable refraction variations, one culprit was no less clear air water vapor and lower altitude ice crystals (specific from various geometric species). They may not be seen, but rival long wave feedbacks similar to clouds physics.

~We give here some recent examples to be found amongst many others

The first thing in identifying the effects of invisible clear air moisture is to describe what happens when the High Arctic is cloudy:

March 5, 2018. We observe the sea ice horizon fading by the arrival of Stratocumulus clouds 4300 feet high eventually covering the sky. On this day with overcast conditions, precipitable water of the entire air column was a mere 1.44 mm. In the Arctic, cloudy conditions may occur with very little precipitable water (pw) . During winter, precipitable water in the High Arctic seldom exceeds 3 mm, more often between 1.0 and 2.0 mm during clear sky conditions or not. Hinting the great possibility of invisible clouds, with moisture formations giving surface based long wave radiation variations similar to when cloudy. In the photo above, the sea ice horizon was 2.3 arc minutes above astronomical horizon before overcast conditions occurred. It is common to loose the visual sea horizon when the sky is overcast with low clouds, at times it is measurable. When able to do so , the horizon can be very near the Astronomical Horizon altitude.

Further examples abound: January 26 2018 had very low overcast conditions, pw was 2.10 mm, on the 24th same month 300 feet stratus near overcast skies had a pw column of 1.18 mm, on the 12th of January various altitude clouds were part of 1.48 mm pw. On Feb 12, 2018 0.85 mm with alto cumulus dominating overcast. When mid air winds are not so strong, spontaneous cloud formations can also be seen throughout winter, sometimes appearing and disappearing within a few hours, this is not an often quoted meteorological process, but it can be said that the cloud may revert to invisible or visible mode.

On many observed occasions, horizon heights defied logic, sometimes higher or lower than would be expected given nearly identical meteorological conditions from one day to the next. But First Melt 2018 might have exposed one secret player for all of us to consider. First Melt is a horizon event marking the return of sea horizon elevation to Astronomical Horizon. Implying
T*** = Ts, top of snow (ice) temperature is equal to surface air temperature:

Note the March 14 horizon sky, it is whitish by local smog, but the sea ice is at astronomical horizon height. First Melt came early with surface temperatures below -40 C, otherwise suggesting dry air, but that may be a bit misleading. It was the coldest day of winter with tropopause height below 500 mb! Of course the stratosphere above the troposphere is almost always devoid of moisture, as happening here, the entire 0.66 mm precipitable column was found compressed between surface and 590 mb:

Mixing Ratio (gr/kg) vs altitude in meters. March 15 00 UTC Radiosonde from station 71924, South Cornwallis Island Nunavut Canada. An extraordinary moisture profile.

First Melt is an event caused by top of sea ice temperature equal to surface air, for March 14 event to have happened, it was necessary for thin sea ice to be present, because thin sea ice has more potential heat to compensate for extreme cold air, very frozen air cooling top of sea ice tends to be cancelled by the heat of the ocean, but on this afternoon, the sun's short wave radiation stopped sea ice top from cooling, in fact was warming it along with the air at its interface.

With much thicker sea ice the equation of winter would be more often: T*** < Ts, causing strong inversions since thicker sea ice insulates the warming from -1.8 C sea water.

If it was only thin ice causing First Melt to be early, identical sun rays at equal or coming from higher point in the sky would continue giving a daily drop to Astronomical Horizon after local apparent noon for days to come, that was not so, next clear days had it slightly or much higher horizons:

March 16 2918, with 11.5 degrees sun elevation as opposed to 11.4 for the same spot 2 days ago, gave a dramatically higher horizon elevation, nearly 1 arc minutes higher. Same sun elevation, same sea ice with identical snow with no major weather event in between, however different horizon height?? You have noticed correctly a bluer sky captured with identical equipment as for March 14 picture, there was a lesser local upper inversion preventing smoke from scattering, it was also 6 degrees C warmer. March 14 picture had highly compacted moisture but very little as opposed to March 16:

March 16 2018 tropopause was much higher than March 14, with moisture more scattered throughout its upper air profile till the tropopause. This suggests double the precipitable water has had an effect on the altitude of the sea ice horizon, which it possibly had, the air on First Melt day was very dry, this allowed more Short Wave through, called solar forcing .

The over all impact of clear air moisture , its contribution to long wave radiation deflections may be small to important, however it can be measured even while not observing refraction effects. Top of snow temperature layer minus surface temperatures may dramatically vary day to day without any clouds. While precluding windy days, there are several examples of unexplainable variations of refraction and snow temperatures during clear air conditions, only plausible with the presence of clouds.

Invisible clouds were first suspected by strange refraction observation variations eventually confirmed by correct top of snow and surface air observations. An overcast with low clouds day can have top of snow temperatures always very close or equal to surface air temperatures. When not cloudy, with dominant clear skies, top snow layer may be persistently equal to Ts as well, even during the presence of the sun going up and down. Refraction observations obtained similar horizon heights as with extensive cloud coverage or with clear skies, in both instances an indication of a long wave feedback system, sometimes with bounce back points easily conclusive, sometimes not. If all air moisture wasn't invisible I would write about their geometry. At any rate, we do have many examples of observed days with T***=Ts with very few clouds or none at all,

Jan 13 2018 a clear day in darkness, following a cloudy one, similar T*** and Ts on all readings , pw was 3.26 mm. Jan 17, 2.70 mm . Apparent clear air moisture preceding coming of a cyclone system was detected March 11 with a 2.51 mm pw. February 20, 1.79 mm.

Some observations were rather confusing to analyze: March 12 1.43 mm. Jan 15 in darkness 1.37 and March 15 with 1.18 mm ..... All these observations suggest not seen moisture likely affecting the climate in the longer term. wd March 21,2018

Saturday, March 17, 2018

High Arctic sea ice First Melt 2018 earliest in short monitoring history

~First melt 2018 predicts a coming great sea ice melt with a high degree of confidence..

~Very latest discoveries unveils largely invisible moisture capable of bouncing back Long Wave Radiation much like clouds.

~This affects sea ice horizon readings without affecting the theory behind "First Melts" observations.

When the sea ice horizon comes back down to astronomical horizon elevation after always being above that altitude throughout the entire High Arctic winter, this event is called "First Melt". When accretion stops, bottom sea ice may be fragile and or melt. This happens when the temperature top of sea ice/snow is equal to surface air. During the dark season , ice accretes when interface sea water looses heat towards space, this heat loss stops when temperature of top sea ice/snow is same as surface air some weeks after long night sunrise with sun high enough to warm up the top of ice sheet. Astronomical horizon is reached as long as the sun warms the top of ice, and then when daily sun lowers towards setting, sea ice horizon rises. The degree of horizon elevation fluctuations depends on sea ice thickness and how porous the Arctic atmosphere to short and long wave radiation. Overcast skies can theoretically create first melt conditions, but this was hardly observed. First Melts usually occur a few hours after local apparent noon when sunny with rays well above 5 degrees elevation. With thinner sea ice, the core minima temperature of sea ice column is not as strong and expansive as with very thick multiyear sea ice, the sun can warm top of sea ice quicker, likewise, and this is a very latest discovery, if the atmosphere is very porous to long and short wave radiation, the First Melt would tend to arrive later than usual, if the atmosphere blocks and bounces back all radiations, First Melts may come earlier, because it is not really a matter of temperature, but a matter of no temperature difference between surface air and top of sea ice. In simpler terms, a long Arctic night with a long term persistent more saturated or moist atmosphere is not good for sea ice accretion, sea ice would become thinner under these conditions with less radiation having escaped towards space.

First Melts in brief history:

2017 April 25, In earliest Chronology: 2012 ~ 2012 PIOMAS peak to peak max. volume loss

2016 March 18, 2016 2010

2015 March 26, 2010 2016

2014 April 10, 2013 2011

2013 March 23, 2015 2015

2012 March 17, 2014 2013

2011 April 15, 2011 2017

2010 March 19. 2017 2014

March 2016 was corrected upon verification of data, was off by 0.2 arc minutes. 2011 was the only outlier on otherwise largely predictive powers of First Melt data with respect to conditions of not only sea ice, currently near or at record thinness, but also atmospheric conditions, in particular how persistently moist or how dry the Arctic long night atmosphere was. This explains 2011 as it was very likely a drier long night, this has something to do with circulation patterns, unlike 2018 where we have had a continuous onslaught of Cyclonic intrusions from both the North Pacific and Atlantic. Furthermore 2011 Arctic winter occurred during a very deep La-Nina which was ideal for lesser clouds. 2011 equally had record number of very damaging tornadoes further South, along with very cold stratosphere, on "steroids" as I wrote.

2018 First Melt happened March 14, the earliest on record since monitoring has started. Throughout the long night the sea ice horizon of the Central North West passage tended to be low. Not always, but more often low than higher. This was an indication of a largely pervasive moist atmosphere, which is an anti-accretion process during the dark season. The two geophysical processes go hand and hand, thinner sea ice is the product of a warmer more moist atmosphere during winter, snow adds on to this process, more snowfall replaces ice thickness, because a thick snow layer is fairly good insulation. The current over all sea ice thickness of the Arctic may be much thinner for a very large area of the Arctic Ocean given that South Cornwallis Island is a representative area of sea ice conditions extending well beyond the Canadian Arctic Archipelago, mainly because the stated prolonged moist atmosphere came mainly from the North Atlantic by way of the North Pole. WD March 17,2018

Friday, March 2, 2018

Back towards El-Nino; no post 1998 La-Nina rebound yet...

~High Arctic skies are recently strangely cloudier.
~A few days ago a clearer evening had telltale ominous high black cloud streaks up to 10 degrees above the horizon, they only appear when trending El-Nino or at extreme El-Nino peak temperatures.
~It seems not believable because we never went deep La-Nina like post 1998 immediate years

BOM Australia demonstrates a clear ENSO trend towards El-Nino:

As we recall 2 years after 1998 super El-Nino the world SST's looked like :

Deep cold La-Nina was well in place 2 years following 1998 super El-Nino , very unlike 2016's post SST action:

NOAA depiction of preceding 2 weeks SST's reveal a significant warming about the Galapagos Islands. Which if continuing would preclude a High Arctic big blue sky spring event. Increasing cloudiness should happen if trending towards El-Nino continues.
This has significant impact for the summer sea ice melt season which would delay earlier spring onset of melt ponds. WD March 2, 2018