Sea ice moved away from latest major Low pressure Centre

Latest  880 mb Cyclone was right over Laptev sea yesterday.  This is not a see through cyclone,  rather moderate to strong, we can only see its after effects once passed.  For better understanding of over sea ice floes interactions we must look at just prior sea ice movements.   

East of Franz Joseph Lands,  Sea Ice was mainly moving South.

    Notice near Ostrov Komsomolets likely Southwards moving ice but melting,  leaving a stable but badly shattered ice front with Goodbye Waves.

   In the wake of passage of new 980 mb cyclone centre, East of Ostrov Komsomolets reversal of flow direction , note the reduction in Goodbye Waves numbers and Northwards sea ice displacement.   August 15 winds are blowing  Southeastwards,  the main body of ice did not move in that direction,  but rather away from Low pressure centre. wdAugust15,2016

Sliding Sea Ice; Recent sea water lakes near the North Pole made bigger by small Cyclone

~Preceding a mega lake at the Pole coming in a few days


   If Atmospheric pressure drops substantially,  sea level rises by not much,  up to 63 cm ,  but that should be enough to make even sea ice to slide downwards (tidal timing may make the sliding a bit interesting).  Gravity rules us all,  big and small, all things conform,  a recent small 988 mb Low now in the North Pole CAA-Greenland quadrant  is preceding a stronger one, but its effect on fragile looser sea ice left its imprint:

  This small see through 988 mb Low moving from East to West just South of the Pole (towards the Atlantic),  apparently innocent looking and minding its regular business, caused some damage to an already very fragile Central Arctic Basin unraveling, as I write,  sea ice:

August 11-12 AMSR2 Sequence enlarged and zoomed  show a disturbance in sea ice consolidation in a mere day,  especially enlargement of a sea water lakes (surrounded by sea ice).  This was done with a weak Low,  now we will see what a more than moderate 970 mb will do,  highly likely clearing the Pole as never seen before.  wdAugust13,2016

Scant near North Pole visuals; sea ice is badly broken up towards the Atlantic Front.

     For august 11,  we only have 2016,  2014 and 2013 with clear enough skies.  We know that 2016 is badly broken up on the North Atlantic quadrant of the Pole all the way to 88 North within the area of 00 Longitude  along the Trans Polar Stream.   2014 looked like solid consolidation in comparison. Much more broken with open sea water than  2013,  which always was an interesting year.    2016 has had great sea ice volume losses towards the Atlantic,  not necessarily showing well with the numbers. This area of sea ice has very serious implications with Central Arctic Basin consolidation,  if open water dilutes further this sea ice, it would mean more unstable situation leading for more massive losses or melting.   WDAug12,2016

Atlantic Front: substantial evidence of massive melting, 'goodbye' waves a plenty

All along the North Atlantic sea ice front,  about 1200 Kilometres long,  there are numerous new 'Goodbye' waves,  sure evidence of recent massive melting.  From Fram Strait,  to North of Spitsbergen to beyond Franz Josef lands,  as seen here in our roving NASA EOSDIS shots.  Although the newish extended sea ice front line position has recently expanded and appears  more or less stable, that is an illusion,  the sea ice melts just as fast as it touches warmer water.  The end result is a great loss of sea ice.  Assume Southwards sea ice movement a modest fluid 2 kilometres an hour ,  about 48 kilometres a day melt along apparently a steady front,  potentially 60,000 km2 a day loss is possible, without actual remote sensing detection. WDAugust10 2016.

Expansion and dilution at once, nature is playing games with our eyes

    While extent drops have recently been lesser,  the melt is just as strong:

Looking at JAXA results,  there has been an expansion of sea ice about 120,000 Km2,  on the North Atlantic front.  As reported here,   there is a great deal of daily melting along that front.  It can be readily identified by comparing when the front was quiet on July 26,  now look at Aug 9 map.  The entire front is battered by the melting (black broken ice zones),  but the flow continues Southwards, nevertheless  right into very warm sea water .   In the mean time,  the CAB is diluting more rapidly leading the way for further water expansion on the Pacific side of the North Pole, which is awfully close to wide open water areas.  Holistically speaking this melt is as bad as it got at this time of the season.  WD Aug7,2016

Atlantic front great movement, super melting trap

  It did not take long for the real Arctic Ocean currents to be re-energized by favourable weather circulation,  there is a mini dipole at the other end of sea ice,  the Trans Polar Stream and main GAC Gyre appear almost full force.  As a result the Atlantic front, seen here, is expanding right into a trap of warm sea water.  With respect to Extent numbers,  they may seem less due to this vast expansion,    but robust they will be in the long run. wdAug7,2016

Individuals always melt away to darkness.

Fram Strait layered Goodbye waves join the ether of the sea.  Rapidly melting sea ice bounces about by collisions with others,  current and winds.  Goodbye waves seem curved and move more uniformly.  Like clouds a top the ocean.

                                                                     North Beaufort Sea. 
                                                     Man shatters the ice,  man looses face

Massive number of "Goodbye" waves don't appear to register on JAXA

~Gyre centred Anticyclone rearranged flow circulation,  a pause in the big extent drops were to be,  however expected to surge again very soon

  Beaufort Sea July 22 August 5 AMSR2 result.   Massive area of 'Goodbye' waves didn't really show up on JAXA which is very interesting,  it rather means that they are essentially slush,  otherwise need be confirmed as such.

  The 'Goodbye' waves of August 4 and 5 set themselves apart from sea ice in many ways,  they are likely very thin slushy sea ice remnants (with  different chemistry?),  very thin because they move faster:

   Goodbye waves are generally faster than sea ice,  as a matter of distinction and practicality, essentially excellent example on how to measure sea ice volume.  Lighter objects floating on sea surface should be swifter, especially if the sea current goes different direction than the winds .   Sea ice moves South while Goodbye waves move West...    Place your mouse pointer on Aug 3 on any large sea ice pan, and determine the distance it travelled,  notice Goodbye waves move greater distances.  WD August 6,2016

2016 so far matching toe to toe daily extent loss numbers vs 2012, now 2 days behind, #1 minima very possible

~Wrangel Island Northwards sea ice 'panhandle' to main pack disintegrating rapidly.
~North Pole will have messed up pack ice mixed with open water drifting there soon

      Wrangel Island Northwards very wide ice bridge likely with thicker sea ice multiple points of fusion were reached a fews days later than adjoining open water areas.  As the 'handle' sea ice to pack structure obliterates more and more daily,  close to 800,000 km2 will be likely gone come minima.
This makes minima at least 4.2 5.2 million square kilometres.  Since I did not estimate other areas, 2016 being  #2 position all time minima is now in range.   Looking at past melts having at least 1.65 million sea ice loss till minima,  #2 position is now a possibility,  especially given the current daily rate melt.  

     Despite not so dense cloud coverage, sea ice remote sensing observations, although not easy, are possible.    Fram Strait has major Eastward winds pushing its melt zone further to the North Atlantic.  We can note a gradual loosening of sea ice North of East Siberian  and Chukchi seas practically all the way to the Pole.  The rate of sea ice vanishing in this sector will dictate if the North Pole will be accessible to none icebreaker ships,  particularly from the Pacific side of the Pole.  The Transpolar Drift Stream appears to have moved near North Pole open water zone further along its usual path,

 leading to conclude that all this messed up pack ice from the South East Russian side along with open water  will be over the North Pole quite soon.  Next few days will have Anticyclone North of Beaufort,  an already strong stubborn gyre current will be re-energized a bit more as well. WDAugust 4 2016

Thicker sea ice? Find where the snow was missing.

    A very striking feature of sea ice topography at this melt season stage is the elongated Ice Bridge from  Komsomolet Island Northwards:

  August 2 2016 JAXA,  The only unperturbed sea ice appears as an arm stretching to Russian Arctic in deep purple.  This is not a surprise,  over the last winter, the main dumping surfaces for North Atlantic moisture was The Canadian Greenlandic Sector,  leaving The greater part of the central Russian Arctic dry:

     The best Arctic snowfall pattern depiction was made in Europe, Topaz 4 ,   find the same ice bridge,  created by winter's cold dark long night without a great snow cover.  Also take a look at where most open water is, especially away from sea shores.   In addition, the stubborn North of Wrangel Island sea ice panhandle can almost be depicted by this map.  Areas with more open water can be traced where there was more snow,  except for the Canadian Archipelago coast,  a very complex ridging zone,  where sea ice piles up due to Tidal action, however the sea ice there might just as well be thinner than expected,  because a greater snow cover decreases accretion.WDAugust 3,2016

Sea ice to water everywhere, latest 2016 melt captures "Goodbye Waves"

   By finding for "Goodbye Waves"  we can confirm melting wherever they are found.
They are useful in confirming thawing in not so common places.   WDAugust2,2016

Numerous sea ice "goodbye waves" North of Northeastern Laptev Sea, Eastern Beaufort and Lincoln Sea

     More whitish sea ice"goodbye"  waves appeared through wavy clouds,  likely  under wind driven stratocumulus or altocumulus appearing slightly greyer on August 1, 2016.   They now occupy top of sea water once covered by sea ice pans July 21 past.    Break up and dispersion of once a huge solid ice field expanse,  surrounding with water its broken up smaller pieces,  accelerated the melting a great deal.  At this date there are huge number of sea ice floes surrounded by open water everywhere in the Arctic.

   Beaufort Sea comprises many drift zones, some intertwine,  South of Banks island mainly Tidal driven ice tends to move East.  Just to the west of Banks is Gyre driven to the Southwest,  the 2 give similar but orientated "goodbye waves"  according to prevailing current.  We can see the gradual rapid melt in progress, but there are still thousands of incoming ice islands from CAB to turn to water.

Lincoln Sea opening to Nares Strait has always a significant tidal (southwards) drift,  but in this case the winds, characterized by August 1 lens NW shaped Stratocumulus ,  easily push away  the sea ice Northwestwards,  note the "goodbye waves" appear the most fluid and mobile zooming like arrows with the wind.  Northern Ellesmere ice conditions are now badly broken and can easily move open for miles in less than a day,  it does so even in the dead of winter because of daily tidal activity causing the "big lead" at times , this is a good summer example.  WD Aug31,2016

Back to water..... That just melted "goodbye" wave look

North of Beaufort sea has similar features to Fram Strait especially now.  Ice almost completely melted gives waves, similar to cirrus clouds announcing an approaching front:

     At extremes of the great Fram Strait melting zone lies the last remnants of sea ice,  whose physical nature really becomes elastic, from solid to slush/rubber to water.  It is a sight everywhere sea ice melts.  In this frame, present Cirrus clouds may be confused with melting sea ice.


    Even North of Beaufort Sea:

     Its melting North of Beaufort very fast.  But just before disappearing,  sea ice takes the shape of waves not so dictated by being very rigid,  these waves are water in transition from appearing solid white to dark liquid.  Each melt region has different melt transition characteristics.  Which is of course as individualistic of the geophysical features about.WDJuly31, 2016

Rapid Supply and Melt North of Mackenzie Delta Inuvialuit nunangani

   At present, the Beaufort Gyre current is very healthy with rapid continuous ice floes for the melt slaughter, again to the point where we can't readily easily identify any ice pan which disintegrates in shape and size in a matter of days.  Note in particular the apparent lack of day to day extent shrinking.  JAXA and other Grids may show very little melt progress but there is in fact huge ongoing melting.



       Melting occurs while the supply lasts:

    Further North of Northeast, the Central Arctic Basin has not an infinite supply of sea ice, although it may appear as such.  Note CAB sea ice pack density literally going smaller day by day, again extent numbers wont really explain this rapid melting until there is less ice than the required 15% threshold .   Archipelago Islands of course provide no such resupply, with the current flowing of sea ice away from them, these Islands provide "land shadows" ,  these give a net but small extent drop, however this is how the NW channels open suddenly, there is much more room for sea ice to move about.  WDjuly30,2016

Water temperature +.9 C at 77.8N 157.1W last report of Mass Buoy 2015j

   Near 80 N water temperatures still with quite a lot of ice cover, was measured a very warm if not hot +.91 C July 22,  by Mass Buoy 2015J last report.   The arrow points to very near its location.   Well further away from wide open water.      This temperature means bye bye sea ice,  and mass buoy 2015J should turn soon into a boat at any moment.   What surprises is how dense the ice was with so warm a water under.   The bottom thermistors read -1 C which may be more accurate,  however throughout the winter the Buoy appears to have recorded very good water temps.Mass Buoy 2015f,  well further North 83.49 North,  has -1.4 C water.

      There are 2 more locations with 1 degree sst much nearer the Pole,  likely retrieved from remote sensing.   Those in circles are in doubt,  not necessarily incorrect,  although the one North of Greenland +28C may be judged incorrect.     Note Chukchi sea +10  C North of Novaya Zemlya +6 C,  incredibly warm waters.
WDJuly29,2016

What does JAXA AMSR2 68377 km2 sea ice loss in a day looks like? Less than what it seems

     Simply looking at statistics gives one impression, looking at everything possible gives the holistic construct, a much better informed analytical approach.  In one day,  we really see whole scale melt damage throughout the vulnerable not tide compacted remnant of Arctic sea ice.  The small 990 mb or so Cyclone did quite a thing to the Laptev North of East Siberian sea"bite",  the Beaufort in origin wide water  expanse is in the process of growing with still thousands of little ice islands,  some are with oldest ice from the CAB ridging zone.  Fram Strait equally is about to have much smaller sea ice extent.  The Wrangel Island sea ice Panhandle is about to loose touch with the last place Mammoths existed and is disintegrating everywhere.    The Northwest passage strongest sea ice is collapsing quickly.  The only thing holding steady is West Laptev sea,  very interesting this year,  but that is another subject.  68377 km2 gives an idea,  the real action is spread over several times that number.  WD July29, 2016

See through Cyclone; not so much clouds

    This very artistic, elegant, cyclone North of East Siberian sea is not very cloudy.  Adds to the complexity of already mixed up ice, along with with different weather features. wdJuly27,2016

Very little wind significant change North of New Siberian Islands

   Again the larger question is how already badly broken up 2016 sea ice is reacting to Cyclonic winds?   Let's see what merely an approaching Cyclone did North of Siberia after July 19:

       There are at least 2 concurring major contributors to icescape dilution: one is critical temperature of sea ice core nearing multiple possible melting points, 2 is the  approaching Cyclone covered in the previous article.   Spreading and shattering ice around and very likely accelerating melting. Let's see the net effect with 2 clearest pictures:

      Devastation with very little wind, water to ice extent ratios have increased substantially, many ice pans have shattered and are difficult to recognize.    This is a small example of what a truly powerful Cyclone can do.   WD July 27,2016

 

Arctic Cyclone storm surge effects on already badly broken 2016 sea ice

   It is really in reality deja vu,   August 5 2012 had a deep cyclone apparently clearing sea ice very quickly.  It was so, but there was pre-conditioning of sea ice,  already on the verge of melting completely, with ice column temperatures at or near the melting points of saltier bottom and top fresh water like ice.  The Cyclone opened up sea ice much further,  stirred the sea water column where there was open water.     Now we have a somewhat slower, quasi stationary approx 990 mb large Low North of East Siberian Sea.  Sea ice was already broken up before it flayed it further,  it will be very interesting to see if there has been residual effects similar with 2012 Aug 5 event:

    Cyclone July 26 opened up the ice much further,  black water is seen near its centre,  a particular place where sea water level rises more than at the far perimeter of the cloud waves.  Prior to the cyclone,  North of East Siberian sea was already quite open,  part of the "Laptev bite" look.    What is very interesting is the storm centre black zone.

     What is the difference with 2012?

July 26 2012 same area had sea ice far less broken,   which eventually melted/compacted at minima.    Although the East Siberian sea of 2016 had similar open water to the Laptev sea of 2012.

We can conclude from AMSR2 data and the NASA overviews that this Cyclone had not quite the same effect as August 2012 Low,  after all it was not as strong,  but did indeed create a great deal more open water,  highlighting the fragility of sea ice surely to vanish come mid September, especially if the ratio of open water to sea ice extent was increased.  WD July 26,2016   

Beaufort area 400,000 km2 almost permanent broken ice area is clearing/melting.

   Unless it is a big melt year,  end of July usually offers a few clues about coming minima outlook.
This year is no different,  but has its own quirks,  namely an area about 400,000 km2  north of Beaufort sea which had a continuous injection of broken ice pans,    the physics involved is simple
and complex by many varying geophysical parameters.

Ice melts quicker when ice core temperature is close to 0 C.  This is the main reason why melting occurs faster at end of July,  there are of course other factors,  which is warmer air and sea temperatures,  but it is very difficult for surface air to warm a whole lot with the presence of sea ice2 meters below.  

      From the constant presence of ice a summer temperature battle ensues,  and thus temperatures without a great deal of very warm advection injections remain steady, especially by latent heat  of fusion of ice, the warming can't really be measured by air temps.   Eventually the most vulnerable sea ice, an ice pan surrounded by warmed sea water, vanishes quickly.  The melting point in the ice column was  achieved by many pieces of sea ice as per July 25 2016, achieving a  greater melt than all previous days.   

Before July 25,  the smallest blocks of ice didn't survive very long,  leaving the larger ones to travel Westwards.  However now is the time when the greatest melting can happen,  the heat transferred to sea ice, a continuous heat sink, renders sea ice to mush to melt to water.      

The only Mass Buoys currently active; 2015f 83.11 N 139.14W has an average core temperature above -1 C and strategically located Mass Buoy  2015 J   77.8N 157.16W has similar ice core temps.  These buoys ice surface  are more or less not surrounded by open water. Again, the latent heat of fusion of sea ice captures a lot of the heat otherwise manifested warmer on ground surfaces of the near by archipelago Islands. 

Summer DMI model calculation of surface air temperatures appear usually steady,  over all past summers, rarely at great variance with about +1.5 C at peak.  This is a good example of sea ice moderating air temperatures when the latent heat of fusion is active.    The wild variances over the dark season are due to warm air advection largely by Northwards penetrating cyclones, these carry a much wider temperature difference than sea ice during winter,   summer cyclones apparently do not give such effects, which is quite fascinating.   wd July25,2016

Laptev bite vs Beaufort melting zone; there is a substantial difference

     June 21 to July 23 2016 AMSR2 Shizuku satellite displays many melting areas,  but the two most prominent have different features,  Beaufort receives a great deal of sea ice from the Gyre current,  most ice pans usually perish westwards,  some survive long and cause a distorted calculation of apparent more sea ice due to the 15% extent criteria.  The Laptev 'bite' has no such qualms,  when it sweeps Northwards there is no sea ice replenishment process.  We may conclude that most surviving ice in Beaufort Area will melt and eventually cause rather large extent drop numbers.  Furthermore the Laptev sea Northward expansion has a huge potential since Northward ice displaces very fluidly. A double "arch" water area is forming along 150E longitude line widening water zones Eastwards and Westwards from sea ice displacements to the North all the way to 85N and likely Polewards very fast.  WD july25,2016

Laptev bites not so crunchy Northern ice, North Pole is beginning to open.

     A closer look at the North Pole to Russian sector ice,  July 18-22 2016.  A very peculiar split of sea ice movement,  one to the Northeast the other to the Northwest at the point where the Laptev Sea appears to bite the ice pack at 80 N and 150E longitude.    The old ice Guard of the Pole seems to scatter accordingly.  WD july 24, 2016

Radically different melt seasons 4 years apart. 2016-2012 comparison.

   July13 to 23 2016,  we see more or less a standard Melt pattern.  The Laptev "bite", the Beaufort melting zone , Fram Strait particularly flowing a little less than usual.  But we see a huge shatter zone of rubble ice making CAB extent all time lowest.

    Turns out July 13-23 2012, was largely atypical,  with the Gyre movement appearing to turn counterclockwise,  with the Beaufort melt zone receiving ice From Northeastern Russian seas.
Missing with 2016,  the CAB huge shatter zone.  In this sequence ,  2012 appears to have a stronger CAB ice pack.  But most of the ice in its peripheral shatter zones vanished.  Leaving to wonder if 2016 will have no ice at all  South of the Pole in the Russian sector.WD july 23,2016

Shattering expectations and sea ice 2016

~Great differences with 2013 demonstrated

         How come 2016 melt season is not the same as 2013?  After all there were some lingering persistent cyclones,  apparently cooling the red hot warmed Arctic in June.  First of all July 21,2013 looked like this:

    A well covered Beaufort area to persist till refreeze, it was not exciting to watch, especially following 2012 melt season.    While Beaufort Sea ice melted long before July 21 2016.

     There was also an incredible "Big Blue" sky period in Spring 2016,  the Gyre turned clockwise under the influence of very long lasting Anticyclones despite Earths thickest ice pans,  for months the Gyre current was reinvigorated in spring set for summer.    This transformed Beaufort Area  into a sea ice melting region.  Effectively emptying the Current Arctic Basin of a lot of its ice,  thinning it to the point where there is now a whole lot more sea water in the mix, more than ever, making CAB sea ice extent lowest on record at this current date of year:

      Beaufort Region became the prime Sea ice melting zone,    shattering,  thinning and melting sea ice during July 5 to 21 2016 period especially due to lingering Cyclones whisking by slowly combined with a persistent Gyre rotation.  This shattering of sea ice caused a somewhat sluggish melt rate at times,  in particular when winds spread out the ice in smaller parts more evenly.    But open water/ice mix extent of sea ice is rather of disastrous quality,  ready to vanish in a few days.  The  thinning of most of a good chunk CAB can be seen on July 21,  with the best most strongest ice heading towards the melting block.    Brings into question whether sea ice extent numbers really tells the pictures as above,  thanks to NASA we understand reality better.

           2016 Melt season is only similar to 2013 due to the persistent cyclones hugging open water areas.  The holistic icescape look is completely different,  and so is the weather, especially  temperature and circulation,  with often 2016 North Pole Highs and the occasional mini dipoles in the 2007 locations.   This scattering of sea ice will lead to massive melt extent numbers,  because the 15% of grid content will drop to 0.     WD  July 22,2016

Keep rocking in the Arctic world, current melt and sea ice flow revealed

~  2016 July sea ice action has remarkably steady Gyre flows and North Atlantic "breathing" ice front

NASA EOSDIS last few days demonstrating rapid Melting in the Western North American sector of the North Pole,    flowing through Fram Strait,  and remarkable "breathing" sea ice at the North Atlantic Front,  likely again due to displacement of sea ice towards open water melting rapidly.  WDJuly 15,2016

Illusions 2016 melt season: The bigger Arctic Gyre appears steady despite winds trying to stop it

~ Fram Strait still has steady incoming ice as well.

   There is a lot of talk about how dominant Arctic Ocean winds,  in some large part opposite to clockwise Arctic Ocean  Gyre, "was not favourable" for compaction,   gave a "lackluster performance" in June and therefore the melt season is basically "dull".... and especially melt ponds are not numerous.  NASA ever so potent and a hugely positive force for correct science,  projects
a large sea ice extent to remain Mid-September.  But will that happen?

JAXA captured intense activities,  despite apparently a "slow June",  if you look very carefully, there was a larger Gyre North of Alaska somehow turning ice clockwise,  with a classic motion compaction, opening water more and furthering the melting process.  Another  panhandle  of slower melting ice is already in place,  about Wardle Island,  the now often appearing Laptev "bite"  precedes a huge broken up ice field further North.  Ice is receding on every front.   Except Fram Strait which has a net output of sea ice.

    From here ,  we clearly observe that the Cyclones did not impede a normal summer year melt as much as imagined.   Except for the famous melt ponds:

"Caveat"  model estimation of melt ponds,  as found on Neven's best sea ice site in the world,  truly bizarre,  especially in the Alaska sector of the Pole,  we have seen the ponds from space:

       The greenish appearance of sea ice mid June,  classic melt ponds colour, this is observed on the surface,  a light green ice top world.


  Beaufort sea had record heat temperatures  reported.   But here we find again a hint,  the models calculate surface temperatures too cold.  It turns out that I have found North of Alaska model surface air calculation  too cold, a few weeks ago,  I made an example of it in June...   The model output was in violation of above sea ice refraction prime rule:  surface air can't be colder than top of sea ice,   especially applicable  in summer!  When ice is a heat sink.

    Having been studying apparent illusions for years,  it seems obvious that we are in for a greatest melt,  despite smoke and mirrors clouds/fog and ice.  Its not that natural illusions are set to deceive,  rather,  belief in a conclusion far away from now,  does that quite well.  WD June 12, 2016  (few seconds before midnight)..

Sea Ice survival last defence: Clouds and Cyclone friendly open water

~2013 like Gyre stall possible but 2016 July icescape not at all like 2013.

   What was hiding under the latest stable cyclone at about the Pole?   A sea water with broken pack ice mix much greater than 2013. same date 82 N 150 E.   2016 has severely less ice, its good for  cloudy Cyclones.

    April 2016 EH2r  projection called for a June July High pressure centred about the Pole,  this is happening now,  but had a real hard time establishing itself.  Since June, Atlantic and Pacific Cyclones constantly penetrated the Arctic Ocean region.  There is only one reason for that,  open water, especially mixed with broken sea ice.  There is a heat engine complex, in particular next to more consolidated ice from the Pole to North American side of Arctic, which is where the Anticyclones have a chance to last.  But the Arctic North American Arctic Quadrant sea ice has a problem,  more snow fell over it during the winter,  due to winter 2015-16 dominant circulation pattern, North Atlantic moisture shed itself there .  As you might have read,  more snow is a twin edged sword,  it protects sea ice in spring,  but also slows down accretion appreciably over the winter.   The pressure dipole now forming between Canadian Arctic Archipelago (more ice) and North of Siberia (less ice) will dominate this period for a while,  until the weaker state of sea ice, on the Canadian side of Pole, will reveal itself  after the protective snow cover vanishes completely.WD July 7, 2016

Sea ice affected by a lot of snow, THE END story

~Not to forget tidal action

NASA EOSDIS Barrow Strait rapid sea ice disintegration (June 29-July 3, 2016),  notice the greyish looking capture pre and post breaking sea ice.  That is the colour of thin sea ice,  finally revealed by most of the snow melted or sublimated.  It broke likely on about June 30 July 1.  What is so special about that date?   It is a few days before the new moon,  a very potent time for stronger tidal driven sea current.  This GIF animation demonstrates 2 major players,  greater than normal snowfall created this ice earlier,  and now despite being thinner,  the snow preserved it to last a bit later.  But Barrow Strait ice was terribly vulnerable,  and a mere extra tidal current took care of it quite well with ease.    The larger image provided by NASA allows us  to hunt for similar looking ice on EOSDIS whenever available by cloud clearings,  the "grey ice of doom" can be seen pretty much everywhere.  None so clearer in the Canadian High Arctic at this time.WD July 4th,  2016

Effects of greater snowfall are lasting in some regions.

Lets focus on the Eastern  NW passage where there was more snowfall:

What happens with more snowfall has long lasting implications for sea ice. First we have greater cooling of top of sea when it falls in autumn,  the snow floats doesn't melt,  acts like a proxy ice cover, and accelerates the grey ice sea ice genesis.  This creates more rapid onset of fast ice.  Now, lets fast forward to its effect to this early summer,  many months later from October-November just past.  EOSDIS 

pictures of June 29, 2015 and 16 are marked upper left corner.  But the great deal of snow during winter of 2015-16 affected sea ice morphology,  and therefore its current cooler summer weather.

Look carefully where the snow remains in 2016 and you will inherently find more sea ice,  because snow help made it,  and also created a buffer slowing its melt.   But the larger implication is the local  early summer weather snow and greater sea ice extent created,  cooler,  and also strangely but so,  thinner sea ice.   Winds of 2015 in the same area as on this GIF animation were dry,  there was  less snowfall,  which happened more on the western European side of the Arctic which happens to have far less sea ice extent on its coastal shores.  2015 sea ice eventually became thicker when formed,  but open water Polynyas in 2015 were much larger because there was a great deal of wind from the North (not unusual) keeping top of sea water from forming ice .  In late spring 2015,  the land warmed quicker, local weather was equally warmer and residual July snow footprint far lesser. WD June 30,2016

Near North Pole current Ice condition, between a rock frozen ice and a cloudy cooler place.

   June 28,2016, near North Pole ice conditions show "pancakes"  typical of fluid sea ice,  terribly broken up.  Very little sign of old ice.  But there was extensive compression during the Spring just past,  this can be its undoing,    a strong consolidated pack cools the air more,  good spawning ground for Highs.

  June 30 2013, same location,  offered a glimpse on the damaged caused in 2012 melt.  However,
the degree of open water caused by much thinner sea ice triggered what many contrarians deemed incorrectly  "a cooling" especially at minima mid September 2013, because substantially less ice apparently melted, not so, it was an extent calculation 15% problem.    This open water caused extensive Lows to penetrate and remain over the ice Pack throughout the summer.    Current situation in 2016 seems between a strong consolidated pack and a loose Cyclone-genesis driven summer.  The danger for 2016 sea ice is for less clouds to form at this time,  un-likewise 2013,  this is very possible. WD June 28 2016