Thursday, March 6, 2014
~ Apparently the Arctic can do 2 things, either it has a deeply frozen atmosphere spreading outwards or be warmer at once.
Monday, February 17, 2014
Reason for 2014 extreme North Pacific location may have something to do with North Pacific temperature anomaly and extremely much warmer Arctic Ocean air temperatures. On a whole the Polar Jet Stream must and did move Northwards as it is overall warmer in 2014 compared to January 1982. This 2014 pattern gave the strange weather like California drought, weird cold winter storms in SE US, massive storms from one strong Cyclone after another hitting and flooding the British Isles and Ireland, a warmer Olympics even if it is in Sochi. Finally a much warmer Arctic warmed by the same Cyclones hitting the Isles, and also from Cyclones coming from the North Pacific. Warmer over all weather means the Jet streams moved North and meandered more steeply, causing unusual patterns creating havoc instead of more predictable weather. WD February 17 2014...
Friday, February 14, 2014
~2013 minima results needs be explained
~2014 melt gearing up to be big
~2014 melt gearing up to be big
Continuous warm anomalies over the Arctic Ocean have been as incredible as the lack of sea ice compaction last summer. Both result from the same polar vortex wave arrangements, almost unrelenting like UK storms which flood the Isles and head towards the Pole. So I am truly not surprised about current low sea ice extent, it was suggested at the time of last minima by the very same cloudy cyclonic coverage which made the minima bigger. Again the big question is whether sea ice compaction will return come this summer, if it does, I can easily foresee a greater melt than 2012. That is the big if. Something must ward off these cyclones from hitting the High North so often, particularly the pack ice center. This something may be El-Nino or more likely a low sea ice extent area of relatively thick ice in the spring. Once the Polar shores are free of ice, a confluence of regularly positioned cyclones may return the Basin Gyre clockwise. One over Barents and North Pole, the regular expansive Baffin Bay Cyclone and lastly over East Siberian Sea. These 3 will generate an anticyclone covering the remaining Pack ice.
Arctic Ocean shorelines with open water create anchors or stabilizes Cyclones to remain on top of water. A near persistent Low centering the Arctic Basin, same as last summer, may bring a cold spring . Ice clogged shoreline areas favor Highs instead of Low pressure cyclones fueled by water. An earlier than expected shoreline "spring break" of the entire Arctic Ocean sea ice area may change polar patterns though. Weather patterns rarely remain the same forever, when they appear to do so, they set up the new weather system arrangements to come.
Search for "Spring Break" 2013;
"Spring break" is seen when the entire Arctic Ocean pack gyrates almost uniformly, when it appears to be free from its connection to land, the best way to see it is with satellite picture animations, single high resolution satellite pictures do not reveal this event well:
2007 sea ice looked better than 2013 on the same May date. But the end result at minima was different.
Although by May 14 2007, the entire sea ice broke free from shores and rotated clockwise for the first time:
Using available animation, when the big lead off the Canadian Archipelago coast spanned all the way to the Atlantic, the entire ice pack was seen rotating on May 14 2007. It was the beginning of one massive melt of even very thick ice.
2013 had a different look, plagued by steady Low pressure cyclones over the Arctic Basin, which killed the usual compaction favoring clockwise movement of sea ice. By August 2013 the melt was strong but stayed in place, favoring
a wider over all extent of loose pack ice. But by mid May 2013 there was no apparent "Spring Break" until August with available video from NASA.
The entire Arctic Ocean ice didn't appear to turn clockwise at all, it was an anti-compaction melt season.
There were those who believed 2013 was a "recovery" from previous torrid melts. But these suggestions were ignorant about the holistic nature of sea ice. It was not a recovery at all, but another great melt which didn't move normally. A continuous repeat of the same weather pattern causing this unusual lack of movement is highly unlikely. But even if it does, the sea ice will melt just as much but apparently more slowly year by year. But I'd expect the return of the Arctic basin Gyre because the clouds have created a lower extent of thicker ice, this will allow an earlier spring break. WD Feb14,2014
Friday, February 7, 2014
~Cloud seeds in the high Arctic starting to show at 4 degrees above the horizon
Dr Masters caught this NOAA statement:
”An increasing number of models suggest the possible onset of El Niño. Strong surface westerly winds in the western Pacific and the slight eastward shift of above-average temperatures in the subsurface western Pacific potentially portend warming in the coming months.”
NOAA may be referring in part to this:
These graphs done by the Earth & Space Research Institute acknowledge a sea current output (in blue) which usually precedes the sea surface temperature trend. As the top graph demonstrates, ENSO sst's
will rise soon.
In the high Arctic, I have recently observed higher than troposphere dark cloud streaks above the horizon, they showed 4 degrees above the horizon on most days, and closely reflect the same equatorial Pacific sst trend, what needs be observed is higher than 4 degrees horizon clouds:
March 2010 El-Nino was already fading , High Arctic persistent stratospheric streaks reached 10 degrees above the horizon.
zoomed October 2010 stratospheric black cloud streaks mixed with some bright ones, these coincided with the end of El-Nino of 2010, these streaks were as high as 5 degrees above the horizon. Presently 4 degrees was seen many times.
Confidence is High , El-Nino is likely returning this year, the Global Circulation will change accordingly, this will affect sea ice melt of 2014 in 2 ways; 1 there will be more clouds, and 2 the persistent Arctic cyclonic presence of summer of 2013, the pattern making it so may be changed. WD Feb7, 2014
Thursday, January 30, 2014
~Weakens winter were it should be strongest
~Creates smaller atmospheric mesoscale regions susceptible to migrate along the real polar vortex waves.
Again not an Arctic blast affected some parts down South, because the temperature anomaly chart makes the Arctic +5 to +20 C above normal:
historically not a frequent event. There seems to be a disconnect between a warmer Arctic and regionally small extreme cold weather. The concept most TV weather spoke persons never talk about is the concept of isolated coldest atmospheres affecting regions not accustomed. There are 2 at present, one in Siberia, the other over North Eastern North America, both have weaker winds at 250 mb Center.
The bigger Cold temperature North Pole cell is over Siberia, which injects cold air west of the Urals. The North American Cell is way smaller and will not last.
It gradually diminished over quite some time, being well South of its usual location demolished its strength and area, unfortunately to the detriment of people not use to snow. The North Pole, still in darkness is quite warm despite the presence of a high pressure immediately next to it. The dual CTNP nature will evolve further, likely being prominent in Russia, not so over North America. Along with this change comes the different weather and essentially warmer temperatures. WDJan30, 2014
Sunday, January 12, 2014
This necessarily means thinner ice has an impact in profound ways, the buildup of winter, how big it becomes, how long it lasts, depends on how cold the Arctic and Sub-Arctic surface areas become. A prolonged cold period permeating a huge area of the Earth defines the winter bitter, too long, miserable. From the onset of a greater sea ice melt at minima, the world wide dark season becomes automatically warmer, shorter, less expansive, even with ideal conditions of thermal radiation cooling to space, the thinner than multi-year new ice warms the atmosphere, not only by thermal radiation from the sea, but because of its fragile state, creating more leads, venting moisture and gases to the atmosphere throughout the winter, as opposed to a period called spring "break up", when vast amounts of organic and inorganic gases, naturally trapped under the ocean for many months, gets unleashed with great amounts of water vapour, at about Mid-April onwards, when lower clouds and ice crystals overtook the sky. This eruption from the sea protected sea ice further by reflecting resurgent sun rays to space. For about a decade, this happened a lot less, while during these last 10 years or so the process of all winter venting did the opposite, it clouds the Arctic further during the dark season, deflecting radiation usually heading to space back to the sea ice. The OLR chart is worse than it seems, a lot more of thermal radiation returns to surface. Thus from darkness a warmer Arctic is seen on historic charts.
Translation in temperature terms
|The larger dark blue average temperature covering the Arctic Ocean was about 242.5 K, or -31 C.|
That is the average temperature of sea ice surface for December 1981.
March 31 2004, very cold ground triggered isothermal boundary layers are seen breaking up the sun disk even to bend along with them diagonally. The sunset on
top of the hill captured a magnificent green flash, along with bent layering features.
Warming off the ground changes the sunset, the sun looks rounder, the layering vanishes. Land and seas capable once of fostering great anticyclones transform to cyclone bearing zones. April 28, 2013.
Isothermal layering on a grand scale fosters High pressure systems. During Polar winters these systems cool the Earth a great deal. If the Cyclogenesis system balance continues to change, like during current reduction of disappearance of sea ice as of current days, winter has no other way but to shrink in size, and be more wild and variable temperature wise because what is left of the cold air zone moves around with the rotation of the Earth. WD January 11, 2013
Monday, January 6, 2014
"A polar vortex (also known as mignogno cyclones, polar vortices, Arctic cyclones, sub-polar cyclones, and the circumpolar whirl) is a persistent, large-scale cyclone located near one or both of a planet's geographical poles. "
Well the North Pole is not in Minnesota USA. Unless there was a huge geographical shift.
More correct is the following definition still from Wikipedia:
"The Arctic vortex has two centres, one near Baffin Island and the other over northeast Siberia. In the southern hemisphere, it tends to be located near the edge of the Ross ice shelf near 160 west longitude.When the polar vortex is strong, the Westerlies increase in strength"
So the current US weather is not a polar vortex, but something rather more exotic, more a propos to a lesser worldwide winter days when the jet stream gyrates weirder than usual, it has more to do with the snow laden ground night sky being clear and the day time with fewer sun hours, it is the Cold Temperature North Pole (CTNP) .
Definition of CTNP: Center of the coldest place on Earth. It is usually one area emerging from a synergistic effect which is the culmination of the lost of heat to space, it is not North or South Pole Centric. But may have secondary, isolated spots. The circulation around a CTNP is counterclockwise.
By definition a Cyclone at center often without clouds. Its location is calculated by the equivalent temperature of the entire temperature of the troposphere, or the Density Weighted Temperature. In lack of actual DWT charts we must contend with 600 mb charts which often mathematically represent the temperature of the entire atmosphere, since 600 mb charts are not often published, either 500 or 700 mb charts may be used. In this example
a US 700 mb map, the center of the 2nd coldest measured atmosphere in the world is over Illinois! @ -33.6 C #2 CTNP. Ust-Barguzin Siberia has the coldest # 1 CTNP cell at -34.9 C.
While the Wikipedia cited Baffin Island "vortex " is CTNP3 #3 coldest. CTNP's further to the South do not last long, disappear rather quickly. While Arctic CTNP's last longest, sometimes months. But the reason why central North America is cold today was because a few days ago there was another CTNP over Southern Quebec, which drew colder air southwards to its West. Warmer air and cyclones were drawn in to its North . The Southern Quebec CTNP warmed substantially and is well over Newfoundland on 6 January 2014. WD 6 Jan 2014.
Saturday, December 14, 2013
Well not quite, the Pyramids seem to have rejected snow.
|Upper left Southwards Jet stream heading towards Egypt and Israel. |
2 massive cyclones, at left 944 mb centered south of Greenland the other less than 980 mb near Arkhangelsk Russia. The day before the snow in the desert, made it very warm in some parts and very cold in some others. They also affected the position of the jet stream.
2 huge cyclones side by side is not so common an event, so is , a wildly distorted broken meandering jet stream. wd December 14,2013
Monday, December 9, 2013
Dr Masters points out the usual suspect about a brief return reminiscent of a cold ice age day on December 7 2013. It's the jet stream of course. As presented , making a strange loop following the outline of the North Pacific. At such occasions I usually bring out the reason for the Jet stream, in this case the Pacific is very warm and Siberia and West North America very cold. Of Course the Arctic is usually biting cold, but as NOAA anomaly chart indicates, warmer than usual, especially in the Alaska region. This is why the jet stream causing this cold weather bout is not crossing the North Pole. But what is newish, is rather the reason why there is a High there, over western US and Canada. While The East coasters enjoy a respite from wintery conditions with a continuous string of cyclones. The High pressure zone didn't pop out of nowhere, but comes as a result of anticyclone-genesis. To be created, an Anticyclone needs a clockwise circulation with clear air over colder ground or surface.
As presented last year, Kara and Barents Sea has a near consistent Low pressure,
usually directing another Atlantic Northwards bound Low North of Greenland towards the NW Canadian Archipelago coast. This Low sometimes joins the Baffin Bay one which not only comes from the North Atlantic but the North Pacific. At any rate, all these Lows surrounded the Western one, which brings the question, who is creating whom? The High and Lows are in fact feeding off each other. And by some geographical situation happenstance, the Lows created a rather large one. Which if lesser thinner Arctic Ocean Ice continue, they will keep on creating rather substantial High pressures wherever they likely to form, over much colder land during clear dark nights. As a matter of physics, not unlike the film the Day After Tomorrow, Northern Hemisphere Lows require the presence of Highs and vice versa, otherwise we would have no circulation..... WD December 8 2013....
Wednesday, November 20, 2013
~Common last few Arctic long nights
~ Here we show its reflection in the higher atmosphere
~ Here we show its reflection in the higher atmosphere
|North of Alaska and Yukon lies a small jet in blue, from NOAA, Nov 20,2013 250 mb|
mb winds. Over the Central Yukon its cold, Arctic strong, so much so, the Cold Temperature North Pole lies right in its center. of which Upper winds tend to circulate counterclockwise around its perimeter all the way to the secondary CTNP over the Eastern Arctic, in this case making an ovoid shape from Alaska to Baffin Island. A small jet only indicates that its warmer to the North. But not by much about 5 to 10 degrees C.
The North of Yukon is warmer than the South. Temperatures throughout most of the North American Arctic are warmer in the high Arctic. Where there is no sun at all.
So it was during the last years at start of the long Polar Night. The cold comes from the South! For those living down South, this does not make any sense at all.. But it is so:
The complete November 2012 at left, much warmer over the Arctic Ocean than say November 1980 (right). The net effect is to have more jet streams over the Arctic Ocean, changing the climate everywhere to the South. Now we have the Northern Hemisphere continents which originate the cold spells instead of a joined larger wider extremely cold air area, connected by the once mighty thick sea ice of the Arctic ocean. A winter land by no other words . WD November 20, 2013