Thursday, September 29, 2016

Looking for 2016 Minima Sea ice dispersion "Big Bang" moment

 Impressive  large mass of de-coiling sea ice ^^^^^^^^^^likely in tandem with winds occurred when minima was called (September 9) ,  this huge mass moved at 15 nautical miles a day,  extremely rapid.  It may be the moment triggering an unstoppable  sea ice expansion momentum still happening to this day.  It occurred either September 7 or 8.  A fascinating moment needing more study. WD September 29, 2016

Tuesday, September 27, 2016

Densest pack changes flow direction with ease, at the weakest wind direction change

     The Northwards Bound tracking Pack Ice changed direction,  Southwards on September 26:

 CMC september 27 00z,  a very modest Low pressure system is responsible.    Temperatures about this area are -5 to -6 C.


  The Crush Southwards reveals what is within the gaps,  mainly a mishmash of pulverized older sea ice,  floating snow and may be a hint of new ice as well,  but if present wafer thin .  The winds easily pushed open water to show.  WDSep27,2016

Sunday, September 25, 2016

Raining during an Arctic heat wave, when snow use to reign.

Today's -0.8 C sea surface temperature  was in a Bay loaded with multiyear ice. notice how clean Arctic Sea water is.  Temperature nearer the surface was +1.4 C,  concurrent official weather reading 67 meters ASL +2 C,  8 degrees Centigrade above the average daily Maximum.   With rain:

Ravaged by waves multiyear ice suffers another melt period,  The bigger pans had melt Ponds and turned green:

The true colour of sea ice is revealed once snow cover melted.   The larger pans here are about 2 meters thick,  Arctic Ocean survivors of the summers melt.  A melt pond water temperature was +0.3 C.    Beach ridge top small pebble layer temperature was +2 C,  near where there was water same layer was below zero C.

   Very late September rain can be heard here,  current way above average temperatures are part of a late freeze up trend since 1998,  another El-Nino year all be it smaller ,  2012,   had much later warmer temperatures as well.  The larger older multiyear  ice definitely cools sea water and air,  this invasion of displaced sea ice was unlike 2012 when the Pack was more consolidated and denser on the NW frontier of the Canadian Arctic Archipelago.    2016 had extreme de-coiled sea ice starting when the Transpolar Stream Current lost most of its sea ice in August. WD September 25,2016

Saturday, September 24, 2016

Dense pack keeps on dispersing with leads widening in very warm temperatures.

     Displacement of densest pack ice (83.5 N 111 W)  has accelerated!   From 3 to 4.4 nautical miles Northwards a day.  Expansion between the leads has almost increased universally as well.   Long going, de-coiling momentum synergistically combined with the winds on top of warming temperatures and ever so present non amenable to freezing sea water.  It would be a mistake to infer that extent has increased because of greater coverage of sea ice.  Surface temperatures are -1 to -2 C,  again this event calls for better analysis tools.  The correct interpretation is that there is more open water per grid,  thus less sea ice.

More towards Wrangel Island Russia,  where there is a substantial presence of water the velocity is 6 nautical miles a day towards open water:

   A strongly frozen pack ice can hardly move more than 2 nautical miles a day unless there is a very good reason otherwise,  a blizzard with very strong winds or a sudden gash of open water caused by huge pressure variations.  What we see here is a strong expansion by dispersion,  the gaps between the packs is equally expansive.  The first 3 days Westward displacement of 6 nautical miles a day met with a wind direction change on the 4th day,  these de-coiling expansions are one of a kind,  likely to be common over next subsequent autumns.  WD  Sep 24-25 2016


 WD September 24,2016

Late September heat wave 74.7 North 95 West

Listen at melting sea ice so late in September with temperature 8 degrees above the daily maximum average.  

   At 67 meters above sea level official temperature was +2 C,  at sea level a little higher.  Sea water temp was -0.5 C despite teh Bay being full with colder Multiyear sea ice.  Black rock shore ridge inside temperature was +.6 C.
   Northwest Passage Invasion of pack ice once moving east westwards towards Baffin Bay,  now trapped by strong Southerlies on the South shore of Cornwallis Island.  wd September24,2016

Friday, September 23, 2016

2016 is a dispersed melt season with significant differences with a more compact 2012 within densest remaining pack ice.

    2016 smack where the densest ice should be has had a lot of open water.
  2012 same location slightly to the North of above (because of clouds),  de-coiled sea ice with less open water.

    2012-2016 83.5 N 155 W   again more open water for 2016.

        How exactly do we judge melt seasons when one is dispersed and the other one is compacted?
It would be wiser by sea ice area:

 If we look at this sea ice area graph,   the minima of 2016 is nearly equal to 2012.  That is much more accurate than extent metrics.    The significance of all this,  compact years use to be the norm,  since 2012,  dispersed sea ice at minima has become prominent.    Therefore 2016 minimum sea ice is very close to 2012, either way,  just below or just above, this is important to conceptualize,  a simple concentration figure would lay away a lot of confusion though.WDSeptember 23,2016.  

Thursday, September 22, 2016

Snow or Grey ice or a mix of both? + Rapid displacements at minima.

  September 21  location                             VVVVVVV
 I calculate 30.6 nautical miles displacement in 5 days,  note ^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^  big pan on September 16 just above (86.57N 109.29E).   It travelled on average more than 6 nautical miles a day,  very rapid rate AGAINST the Transpolar Stream Current.  It means that there is a lot of grey ice and floating snow between the broken packs .   If grey areas was new sea ice they would completely cover the gaps,    But if it is floating snow or grey ice the leeward side would be full while the windward (towards the bottom of this page) open,  the open water locations change so it is likely floating snow which changes in texture with time and exposure.   Sea ice would set easier on the windward because pack ice offers no waves and a wind shade facilitating freeze-up more.

83 N 112W smack in the middle of densest but de-coiled pack ice, with temperatures between -10 to -17 C ,  still has open water (by movement) with a daily displacement of 3 nautical miles a day, a very rapid rate for dense pack indeed.  But with new sea ice,  recognized by drifting snow on top of it.  

Meanwhile near Franz Josef lands:

      The flow is equally rapid seen by open leads amongst loose pummeled pack.  The Goodbye Waves are less expansive than before,  but there are many of them.  WD September 22, 2016

Tuesday, September 20, 2016

+0.5 C cloudy weather melts submerged snow, but reappears after overnight snow showers

A day has past  and some ice multi-year ice has moved away along with much less floating/submerged snow.  
Company,  2 Polar bears  and partner in crime fox were just here.  
Yesterday's bergy bit is no longer surrounded by floating snow.  

   Upper left floating snow remains between small multiyear ice gaps,  sea water is colder  there.  September 19 at sea level was +0.5 C briefly,  this was enough to melt away snow rapidly even in -1 C sea water.  September 20 (today) overnight snowfall covered the Bay again with floating snow.  wd September 20,2016

Monday, September 19, 2016

JAXA Density jumps

 September 17 2016 JAXA vast great expanse of open water finally showed quite well,  and is comparable to sat picture:
But It did bot last:

                         JAXA depictions September 15-17-18  top to bottom.  Wild daily variations.
Yet satellite photos show vaster dispersion day by day.    WD September 19,2016

Sunday, September 18, 2016

Vast expansion of scattered sea ice does not seem to record open water extent gains numerically, or it likely snowed a whole lot.

~Snow showers can confuse data to look like sea ice but there are some differences.

     First off,  JAXA extent data kept showing some expansion less one day since the almost official minima,  this is confirmed on satellite pictures,  but sea ice is scattering thinner,  eventually dispersion will show up in the data,  extent expansion should stall,  even despite the 15% rules:

    Vast expansion of scattered sea ice towards Central Russia from Pole.   Infers also that open sea water is expanding,  but JAXA daily extent data numbers does not seem to collapse daily expansiveness,  rather mostly the contrary.  There is,  however,  a very good explanation:

   Invasion of what is left of the Multiyear ice shows striking image,  the top sea ice is smooth the bottom ravaged by -1 C water.  Top sea ice layer has less salt and would be the last to go.  But this bergybit is surrounded by what appears to be smooth sea ice,  look carefully,  it is submerged fresh snow for the most part some segments have the snow sticking above water level.

   Fresh snow on lower tide sea shore gradually submerging in deeper water.
    Submerged snow differs from grey ice in colour and texture,  it mostly appears smooth.
   this years icescape of huge areas of Arctic Ocean broken sea ice makes the accurate measurement of sea ice  even more difficult.  Ice floes smother the wind and wave action moving the snow to pile up or  disperse.  In 2012,  Cryosphere today data recorded a vast expanse of submerged snow as sea ice during calm winds. Likewise 2016 most certainly has had expanding sea ice numbers earlier on account,  in part, of snow fall.  Summer/Autumn Arctic 2016 atmosphere has very moist air.WD September 18, 2016