Sunday, August 28, 2016

Canadian Side usually ultra dense sea ice observed loose up to 89.5N

   The latest August 28 974 mb cyclone is very near the Pole,  and this time it should create quite a lot of open water there because the Canadian side of Pole sea ice is now likely the least dense observed in history.  WDAugust28,2016

Wrangel Island ice bridge methodically becoming no more.

~If it all melts,  2012 extent record will be seriously challenged or exceeded

    Within last 4 days,  the Wrangel Island ice bridge has lost about half of its extent,  at this rate it should be all gone within a week,  since the water surface to ice ratio increases every day:

Once the middle of Wrangel Island ice bridge to Pole becomes water, likely in a few days if not tomorrow, the melting will accelerate.   Comparing to 2012 is of interest:

     There are huge differences between the icescape of August 27, 2016 and same day 2012.  2012 had an ice bridge to Wrangel but disappeared earlier,  North of Laptev sea ice was only present above 80 N,  the Atlantic front was more to the North.  However 2016 has a deeper towards the North Pole sea water bite and has incredible CAB lower density sea ice areas :

   The over all up to date review suggests 2016 capable of surpassing 2012 in its own way.    Melt years are rarely alike,  even one following another.  What makes 2016 apart,  is that it happened significantly without a prolonged Arctic Dipole,  in other words, without a great deal of summer insolation (and its cooler in summer when cloudy,  even in the Arctic).  This was a prerequisite proving that warming Global Temperatures need not have favourable weather conditions to devastate the existence of Arctic Sea ice.  WD August 28,2016

Friday, August 26, 2016

Trans Polar Stream, first time so wet in history, is simply huge, it may cause a fluid mix accelerating flushing to the warm North Atlantic.

   A  gap in clouds drifted long enough to reveal a huge area of sea water mixed with loose sea ice just South of the North Pole (about 100 nautical miles),  NOAA HRPT.  Of interest is the zone between this opening and Fram Strait,  which has always been a fluid area of sea ice, usually slowed by traffic jams of ice coming from multiple directions.  However, even in winter, this is an area rife with movement.   It may not be strange that it looks more dense with sea ice,  it all bunches up there,  but it is not a static zone especially now:

   Fram Strait is rapidly bulging Southwards with sea ice,  this means that the Open Trans Polar Stream may reach the Strait,  with 0 to +7 C sea surface temperatures.  Notice Goodbye waves between Greenland and Spitsbergen Isles,  they expanded from August 23 to 25 as well,  a sure indication of rapid melting along with the arrival of new sea ice.  If the Trans Polar Stream open zone reaches Fram Strait,  it would mean a much more fluid flow of sea ice to the North Atlantic.

   Note the zone of open water within the Trans Polar Stream appears far more ominous on Satellite pictures,  this is due to AMSR2 15% minimum sea ice per grid rule.   However, any increase in fluidity North of Greenland or Spitsbergen would accelerate the flushing of the real last remnant of dense sea ice North of Greenland as the mixing mashed up zone of subduction would have no pressure from the Trans Polar Stream furnishing usually thick ridged sea ice,  this acceleration may have already started.. wd August 25, 2016

Thursday, August 25, 2016

The Trans Polar Stream is becoming like a sea water river carrying loose sea ice to the Atlantic

Note the ice pans moving from left to right (August 18-25),  despite many strong cyclones giving different wind directions,  the Trans Polar Stream seems largely unaffected.  As time goes by,  the ice pans near the North Pole, 87.7N 107E,  become more and more surrounded by sea ice.  This is a very precarious moment,  the stream is almost loose like this all the way to the North Atlantic,  from 85 N to 82 N there is denser sea ice,  if this barrier or ice dam collapses,  nothing will stop a whole lot of ice of melting further,  unfortunately the forecasts call for strong winds over the denser sea ice barrier region.  WD August 25,2016

Wednesday, August 24, 2016

Huge sea ice area is on the Razors edge, between water and survival

There is a sea ice lake,  the size of  Lake Superior, 85N 135E,  the remnant of GAC3 again dispersing ice at Centre of this Cyclone.  The Wrangel Island ice bridge seems on the verge of total collapse.   The other, towards Laptev sea,  only has less than 1/3 of its pack apparently solid.  The Atlantic Front appears to be moving North.  There is significant extent numbers consisting of 80% or more of seawater,  which would count as 100% sea ice.
  The entire Eurasian sector of the Pole is very fluid by the presence of a lot of open water and has had a significantly changed icescape especially towards Bering Sea in 10 days.   More movement of sea ice is within denser sea ice areas in the North Atlantic sector:

  Daily Sea ice with open water movements are visible enough despite partial cloudiness,  some areas have modest displacements, some appear steady,  this water and ice displacements affects the look on the JAXA map above. WD August 25, 2016

Tuesday, August 23, 2016

Goodbye waves lack of geometric continuity, drastically different than melting Fram Strait sea ice

    Goodbye Waves,  not showing on JAXA at all, congrats to AMSR2 people having fantastic banzai uber precision,  have shown remarkable geometric contortions in Fram Strait,  all while not readily being identifiable from one day to the next.    Point your mouse cursor on small ice pans and note their lack of motion very unlike the Gwaves, fascinating.  WDAugust 23,2016

Monday, August 22, 2016

North Pole Sea ice: what we can see 2016 is bad, 2013 visually worse, but 2016 is it

     2013 summer was mystically confusing,  2016 more straightforward,  at first glance 2016 here appears lesser North Pole affected than 2013 on August 22.  But AMSR2; "The Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer 2" captured otherwise:

   Here we fall into the 15% sea ice minimum extent per grid delusion, which in effect even the best system does not capture the holistic picture, by set of standard rules. We must always combine all data sources possible to obtain the holistic construct to have a better understanding of reality. Unlike 2013, 2016 exceeded the 85% threshold for open water. 2013 had much more ice density despite North Pole area pack Ice being flooded with open water, perhaps if the grid was made smaller, 2013 would show up somewhat worse than historically presented. WD august 23,2016


Compaction vs scattering, sea ice movement favours some extent gains on the leeward side until spreading gets water to be prominent.

   August 20-21 JAXA sea ice extent map,  has a particular feature of interest.  Sea ice extent drop was largely diminished on 21 august,  despite larger sea water areas.  Note the rotation of the remainder ice pack. Notice stable sea ice shores on the wind compaction side,  but the leeward side is scattered and badly broken,  there is no ice to stop movement but sea water,  the ice spreads out and gains overall extent amidst water not exceeding 85% coverage per grid.  Test this out by placing your mouse cursor on the leeward and windward shore lines.  There are significant gains in extent with badly broken up sea ice vs compacted areas almost apparently not rotating counterclockwise.  Extent figures will eventually drop much further when the scattering isolates the loosened ice pans further for melting in warmer water.  WD August 21,2016

Sunday, August 21, 2016

Towards the left, captures file.

~"to the right" of wind direction-   -+ sea ice dispersion is not easily captured.
~ here we have "to the left"  compaction by GAC2

   Despite clouds  large ice pans were moving to the centre of GAC2 2016.   Winds go from top to bottom of frame.  Located just NW of Banks Island Canada,   Sea ice is converging towards centre of the Cyclone.  WDAugust21,2016

Saturday, August 20, 2016

2016 signature characteristic: Sea ice floes not moving very fast

   JAXA latest 44,840 km2 apparently daily drop of August 20,  did not come as a surprise, a new GAC seen here elegant and spinning a storm,  lets call it GAC2,  is relishing the temperature contrasts between open water and sea ice air.  This NOAA satellite capture,  4 hours apart from the first frame (1450-1856UTC),  shows an intense see-through cyclone,  see-through because it was  largely over sea ice while dragging extremely slowly a lot of loose floes readily available, you can notice the largest ones barely moving by placing your mouse cursor over them.  This has been a main feature of 2016 season,  the Gyre current has been stubbornly opposite to the winds often,  even very strong winds.  But there is a daily movement at variance with winds and other geophysical motion vectors nevertheless, largely captured on JAXA maps featured almost daily here.  Today,  North of Beaufort open water is getting more sea ice, not broken up the same way as with GAC1.   Therefore the extent rate slow down,  a signal from a weather circulation variation,  what comes next is another huge drop.WDAugust 21,2016