Monday, September 24, 2018

Thinner sea ice always with pervasive low clouds slowed the yearly melting rate in summer, but reduced accretion and extent in winter

~Only much sunnier Arctic Ocean summers can cause greater melts...
~There was more solar forcing prior to 2013

~                                                 Thicker sea ice = less summer clouds
~                                                   Thinner sea ice = more summer clouds

~ However,  over all year by year thinning of Arctic sea ice continues,  because clouds from same thinner sea ice slow dark season accretion and extent growth considerably. 

The evidence:

          DMI80 average temperature is an excellent source of data,  despite being a temperature model of models.   In the case of sea ice, it would be better if the data was presented strictly for sea areas not a mix of land and sea.  DMI 83.5 North upwards would be nice to have.  Nevertheless,  temperature over sea ice during summer barely goes above +2 C,  averages about + 0.75 C .  This is explainable by the equation of winter:

                                                                      T***<= Ts

         Temperature of top of snow/ice is alway colder or equal to Ts,  surface air at about 2 meters above.  The only thing warming top of sea ice is the sun or warmer air,  both may be considered from the same source.   With enough exposure, the sun melts sea ice snow top,  water on ice then may never be so warm,  therefore the just above 0 bit.   Hence DMI practically always is a measure of top of sea ice temperature,  with a partial land contribution,  some from open water,  therefore the at times +2 C daily average maximum.

          IN spring and summer, if it is sunny enough,   temperatures may be sufficient to crack open thinner sea ice giving leads to also contribute to warming.   But it has to be sunny.  In the not so distant past, surface temperatures indicated it was sunnier:

We observe 1980 to 1990 summer seasons always equal or exceeding the average trend in green.
It is not indicating open water at the Pole but rather,  indirectly giving out the presence of the sun,
largely favored when overall sea ice was thicker.
 The "average "  daily summer temperatures continued till year 2000. Note the often above average temps,
      From 2007  onwards the daily averages tended to be below except for 2007-2008,  2011-2012 and 2015-2016.   None having substantial  number of days above the green line,

   Of all summers which mattered 2009 and 2013 stand out.   Following the great melt of 2007 one would expect thinner sea ice to cool summer surface temperatures in 2008,  but that did not happen,
because there was a cloud thinning La-Nina in 08,  however 2009 had a drop in temperatures.  The best example is 2013,  immediately following the greatest melt of 2012,   summer 2013 thinner sea ice did establish itself for a vast area of the Arctic Ocean:


DMI summer 2013 cool temperature profile...

    Thinner sea ice is very conducive for clouds,  and clouds very "welcoming" for cyclones.  Despite
more than 11 million km2 sea ice melt of 2012,  2013 thinner sea ice increased cloud albedo,  effectively cooling the summer for most of the Arctic.



Case for thinner sea ice,  extent maximums

   JAXA extent maximum data 2003 to 2018,    there are 2 increase peaks from mainly descending sea ice maximum values,  the 2007 to 2008 and 2011 to 2012 peaks,  it should not come as a surprise that 2007 and 2012 had major sea ice losses during their respective following summers, the winters preceding were characterized as having less clouds,  more accretion by  dark starry nights continued by bright sunny days. But note the great extent maximum increases in 2007-2018  and 2012.  The steady lower maximum peaks since 2015 are equally attributable to the contrary,  warm cloudy dark seasons indirectly interpreted from DMI graphs above,  persisted during each following summer.   Here is ample evidence that the lesser winter extent gains exceeded the summer melt losses.


Thinner sea ice causes pervasive cloudiness giving an apparent melt plateau


      TOTAL melt numbers again reflect extensive cloudiness,   2007 (first high peak) was spectacularly exceeded in 2012 with nearly 12,000 million km2 extent loss,   translation:  2007-08 and 12 sea ice had  greater solar forcing summers,  2010 and 16 had smaller ones,  but  much opposite 2009-11-13-14-15-16-17 and 18 more or less have had increasing melting at a much slower rate,  these years were characterized by their extensively cloudy weather all while sea ice thinned during equally cloudy from one year to the next winters.   When summer sunshine got through longer, the melts became progressively greater,  2007 had thicker sea ice than 12,  but when this same sun got through in 12,  the melt was greater from a thinner sea ice base.


Minimums


  There are 4 minimum dips on this graph,  2004, 2007, 2012 and 2016.  The most fascinating point to make is why there was a following summer extensive minimum increase after such great depletions? Why would there be lesser sea ice melting when there was certainly thinner sea ice base after each great event loss?  2013 had the most phenomenal minimum comeback.  By strict terms of achievements,  at 2012 minima,  with less sea ice than ever, led to 2013 maximum, which started with less extent at maxima and wide spread thinner sea ice than 2012,   yet extent minima in 13 had much more sea ice,  the weather wasn't so cold to justify such a strange feature,  but there was plenty thin sea ice which broke up very easily during its spring causing the clouds and cyclonic weather to prevail throughout summer,  stalling greater disintegration of sea ice when it should have disappeared more readily.


Discussion

      Post 2012 Minimums  were all greater in extent,  yet NASA GISS Northern Hemisphere average temperatures were all warmer than 12 except for 2013.  This temperature record contradiction simply expresses the different world of sea ice,  which may appear to buck the Global Warming trend,  but it is simply a zonal feedback event from clouds over sea  ice not as massively thick.  The multiple presence of huge Arctic Ocean ice islands  spanning in all its quadrants,  more common in the 80's,  basically encouraged more solar forcing against fiercely persistent sea ice,  having much fewer summer leads of open water,  a friendlier  seascape for a persistent high pressure often to the West of the much larger summer polar vortex.  This was the most common weather feature of the Arctic Ocean,  an Anticyclone hovering about the Arctic Ocean gyre area,  the very physical source
making  the  famous gyre turn clockwise,  equally the start of the trans continental sea current  starting from North of Siberia towards Fram Strait.    Summer 2018 saw both of these currents mainly absent.  Despite spring onslaught of very steady High North of Alaska.   One would assume these currents to dominate at times,  especially when the winds became weak, but 2018 sea currents appeared lame at best, incapable of overcoming the weakest winds.  This lack of consistent compaction caused a vast new area of open water to appear well North of Ellesmere and Greenland.
Chaos is the new circulation Arctic mode,  all this may appear to prevent great melts,  but they are only one sunnier summer away,  or rather sea ice Maximums will surely shrink in extent to about 11, 000,000km2,   this is when 2012's events, or worse,  will occur no matter how cloudy the Arctic Ocean may be.     

Sunday, September 16, 2018

Tale of 2 sides of the North Pole, one with fresh snow cover, the other a summer cloudy day

 A 2018 special feature wide open water where no human has ever seen before,   was covered up by
snow  ,  as if it never happened.  But it is still there,  under very thin or snow covered sea.

       There is a stalemate in the Atlantic front,  very warm North Atlantic waters keep any progression of sea ice at bay.

   September 14 15,  15 is the one with withe tip at top most end of sea ice,  the North Atlantic front is still heading towards the Pole.  There is a distinct possibility that AMSR2 confuse "Goodbye Waves" with rock hard sea ice.  daily scattered/compressed oscillation of sea ice suggests so.

    80 N 166 W NASA captures 8, 10 and 16 September,  leaves no doubt of further melting  from within,  a compacted ice pack would have less water from within.  

78 N 173 E,  proof of melting again,  with a very small bit of compaction can be determined by the slight displacement of largest pans at right,  while bigger number of goodbye waves in a mere 2 days. WD September 16 2018 

Saturday, September 15, 2018

Minima time rapid melting

~When most September 15's are Minima time,  sea ice in 2018 is still rapidly vanishing

NASA EOSDIS September 8-14-15 loop. 79 NORTH 180 West
Great melting has occurred when most times it should be slowed to a stop, indicating warm sea water and air effects with no possible appreciable compaction. 8 to 14 show simply melting with “goodbye waves” galore, individual packs last stand, while 14-15 comparison has differing goodby waves,
meaning different packs on their way to water. There is no doubt about strong melting very late in season.

    It is not impossible to conceive that "goodbye waves"  may be mistaken as ice packs,  as on passive microwave detectors.
   September 14 to 15 wildly different goodbye waves (left) indicate strong melting in the final phase change of differing ice packs.  Note the clouds obstructing a better view (right). 

There has been a major Arctic Ocean climate circulation change ever since
the great melt of 2012, whereas a new thinner sea ice based weather has been
firmly established. While during summer this regime is characterized by the
presence of long lasting cloud coverage favoring the presence of hovering
lingering cyclones, effectively slowing down summer time melting, this very thin ice regime
also favors more clouds during autumn and winter, whilst less melting
during summer was established,  reduced accretion during the other seasons took hold.
The net resulting effect is a slow but gradual thinning of sea ice, which
culminates to now, the minima season delayed.

WD September 15, 2018

Thursday, September 13, 2018

Stealth sea surface temperatures

~Although the record high surface water temperatures may appear currently smallish
~Their influence is somehow reflected in larger area of surface air temperatures

    OK it was a long day,  so you think of having a drink of water,  but it is warm,  no problems,  add some ice and almost instant cold settles.  But the instant reading of water near surface is colder than mid to bottom, the ice hasn't had time to absorb all the heat available.  Eventually the ice melts,  and its good and refreshing to drink.  This is pretty much what is happening over the Arctic Ocean,  except remainder sea ice is a tad salty,  if all melted  less so than sea water,  so the fresher water melt settles on top, in fact density of sea water at 0 C is heavier than just melted sea ice, even sea water at 4 C would be denser than  a fresh melt at about  0 C,  how do we measure the real temperature of the sea water when such a situation exists?     Is a good question,  perhaps shall we judge it by melting sea ice action? 


   North of East Siberian Sea,  August 30,  September 13 loop,  a fair bit of melting has occurred while the sst was near 0 C next to the ice,   but very warm 3 to 4 degrees C not very further away. 



   NCEP September 9 very warm SST zones are somehow amplified as much larger surface air areas.   Scattered sea ice mixed with open water temperatures are more near or below  0 C.   Are the very warm salty sst's lurking under the fresher melt waters?   WD September 13, 2018

LATE season melting examples

~With clouds rarely absent ,  a  glimpse of pre-minima very late melting

   Extraordinary "Goodbye Waves" action,  EOSDIS September 9 and 13,  notice they differ in 4 days,  indicating different ice melting,  because a goodbye wave is a final wave of an individually distinct ice mass.  This loop confirms current active melting when the minima should have been declared, the picture with less sea ice is on the 13th.   Sea ice agglomeration density of thousands of little ice islands significantly reduced as well.


  Wrangle Island  has +9 C surface water near by,  seen top left,  during same 9-13 loop ,   all these remaining micro packs are doomed.    Notice internal melting mid extreme right. 

    We are not even dealing with compaction,  which if allowed,  would rapidly reduce sea ice extent
even more dramatically,  a considerable cyclone would do so.  WD September 13, 2018

Tuesday, September 11, 2018

Differing resolutions confusions

~There is a whole lot less ice than 15% extent rule 16 KM grid suggests
~We explore differing resolutions

   Despite latest reports suggesting we are at minima,  not so, at minima again,  nope,  largely because of wind system changes, despite there is still a great deal of melting going on in the Pacific side of the Pole.  However a significant Arctic Ocean air temperature dipole exists, on the other side of North Pole temperatures are colder,  the ice on Atlantic side is largely more densely compacted than the Pacific quadrant,  not so much compared to previous Septembers.


NASA EOSDIS below transect looks at the visually cloud free area within the pink area on September 10 JAXA above.  

   NASA EOSDIS September 11.   Observe significantly huge  "Goodbye Waves"  sea ice in final melting stages, we can confirm without much of a doubt that16 km grid 15% extent rule  calls all of the areas seen here covered with 100% sea ice.  However the JAXA colored map above gives a better representation at 6.25 km per grid and describes reality better than 10 km resolution  which is likely the daily JAXA numerical value:

       The 10 km grid random scan same area reveals no 14% sea ice coverage,  so it is all read as 100%. Even if water covers a grid area by 80%......  WD September 11, 2018