tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-11636231826389630422024-03-09T20:48:53.374-06:00EH2R - latest work in progressEH2Rhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15138541663354420708noreply@blogger.comBlogger388125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1163623182638963042.post-5678761841374384082024-03-05T23:31:00.000-06:002024-03-05T23:31:04.557-06:00Unprecedented Kara sea ice retreat at Novaya Zemlya, when winter cold should reign supreme. <p> ~At least since 2004, which highly likely means since historical records began. </p><p>~Whilst 2024 maxima hovers about 14 million square Kilometers , right near the lowest extent ever.</p><p>University Bremen AMSR2 sea ice concentration February 24 to March 4 2024:</p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg7utOOSB50D12LpBY5jhqfT_RJ0HTpd4VbFiDurNWGx4gwzL8GrSMsnrroIe23jjD3Rq-uWWIWdNsoyq-PgKbjXz8_PaU9HRCS2pb1bmVWhcbBaTdXXW_CDkHqOGH-1UWD5x1Z43jKy906kxfTHRb1JBvxN5uPG-H-J6cRZaow_8ZqHWi5HaELEI41Ys8/s314/retreating.gif" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="258" data-original-width="314" height="526" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg7utOOSB50D12LpBY5jhqfT_RJ0HTpd4VbFiDurNWGx4gwzL8GrSMsnrroIe23jjD3Rq-uWWIWdNsoyq-PgKbjXz8_PaU9HRCS2pb1bmVWhcbBaTdXXW_CDkHqOGH-1UWD5x1Z43jKy906kxfTHRb1JBvxN5uPG-H-J6cRZaow_8ZqHWi5HaELEI41Ys8/w640-h526/retreating.gif" width="640" /></a></div><br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgPSKui9Jzy8I_d6gHllDcEilDAkTDaLriEJqDTaRzYiW6MWs_XzaFp2Qi07ED-ZchTg3AcXP6man_5NVth-NTfaBFMkfnDCPwjdTXpI7qqrT4eYIjSK1E6g7HYepvQNZF5he1U4OWOhVJ8ozdJQzLCQq7QeBqv3vWGaPUKbgpXBVA-oxDasrnkAm6M5oQ/s180/since%202024.gif" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="120" data-original-width="180" height="427" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgPSKui9Jzy8I_d6gHllDcEilDAkTDaLriEJqDTaRzYiW6MWs_XzaFp2Qi07ED-ZchTg3AcXP6man_5NVth-NTfaBFMkfnDCPwjdTXpI7qqrT4eYIjSK1E6g7HYepvQNZF5he1U4OWOhVJ8ozdJQzLCQq7QeBqv3vWGaPUKbgpXBVA-oxDasrnkAm6M5oQ/w640-h427/since%202024.gif" width="640" /></a></div>Now March 4's 2004 to 2024, 2024 is the only one with water South of Novaya Zemlya Island, at or near Maxima extent, a fast retreat in the works. Likely by the nature of sea ice in the sea of Kara, thinner, weaker, not what it use to be not very long ago, not able to survive warmer weather of late. Early days 2024 already suggest a record year of sea ice events. WD March 5, 2024<br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><br /></div><p></p>EH2Rhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15138541663354420708noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1163623182638963042.post-62353182847214830472024-02-18T21:51:00.007-06:002024-02-18T22:03:08.564-06:00NW Canadian Arctic archipelago littoral thin ice surviving tidal ridging, one more never seen before event <p> ~As a result of overall thinner sea ice combined with lesser extent at minima, the Archipelago coast has a new look</p><p>~A totally new Arctic Ocean feature, an introduction to the future shape of winter sea ice to come.</p><p><br /></p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEimv-dXRvHEbJ22KNDFSMrEm4viT7Ai0wizIf7EN4MR4qce7yWtiUme6ABPHl-Buhw840IMrSlZ7QfA8hmE-LKmpePKAziFsD4OHL6FTy1XMujyY4h8kntTDvwsWJc7zoieQ7YtjfGdxWJdFQkZXWI8x9BgI8h4kMJBionsgeFdaFfBfeP8hyYId1PbgJI" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img alt="" data-original-height="263" data-original-width="270" height="624" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEimv-dXRvHEbJ22KNDFSMrEm4viT7Ai0wizIf7EN4MR4qce7yWtiUme6ABPHl-Buhw840IMrSlZ7QfA8hmE-LKmpePKAziFsD4OHL6FTy1XMujyY4h8kntTDvwsWJc7zoieQ7YtjfGdxWJdFQkZXWI8x9BgI8h4kMJBionsgeFdaFfBfeP8hyYId1PbgJI=w640-h624" width="640" /></a></div>January 9 2023, a polarview not unlike preceding years, perhaps with some thinner ice compared to the 80's, ridging near the coast can be clearly seen along with tidal frozen shore leads. The Islands of the arhipelago, have different topography, Borden Island (top left), Elef Ringnes 2nd from left, Meighen Island is the little one next to mountainous Fjord rich Axel Heiberg extreme right.</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEj-vQRh1yIaIxIw40_u8GLDd1UuA50Xbb4uIpG2bzekp1Fbqrt_QQY4A1V9x2RAHvqSqrrDidd-Ndfufez_rLUGJHf-Wfe_2ImBcZkZX8pITOW7PxsvKVEbwk_gExf9zUV8qhYwW5jDS9W-LNYdY62jB3aDMvp8hUnNo_qMP6k2vhzuJ32nxaJyjCUv29c" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img alt="" data-original-height="263" data-original-width="270" height="624" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEj-vQRh1yIaIxIw40_u8GLDd1UuA50Xbb4uIpG2bzekp1Fbqrt_QQY4A1V9x2RAHvqSqrrDidd-Ndfufez_rLUGJHf-Wfe_2ImBcZkZX8pITOW7PxsvKVEbwk_gExf9zUV8qhYwW5jDS9W-LNYdY62jB3aDMvp8hUnNo_qMP6k2vhzuJ32nxaJyjCUv29c=w640-h624" width="640" /></a></div>Impossible scenery December 23 2023. there is a wide open area of very thin sea ice all along the same coast. Not a fierce storm temporary feature. Thin "black" ice was there for quite some time. It was predicted that the coast would be freer seai ice at minima, this new sea ice was likely frozen in place sometimes in October. </div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">Very peculiar new sea ice, never seen so wide offshore lasting very long.</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEiQuxBtS-E3Q0UeqKUPy3xSOYyRp1Ag5aaZRaaxkSbrv2zcY2zuBb86NXi6A-GaJxWBEHdPOTKL924H-gdOVMxw8TMdYJO7-6ATLYRMTh8tiMLMKB5w3DaHIqV9-j7IqoUWC_TGdUwRRoUlZLi5fV8ZkIdEQ0-Ukjw6DH03Yv7vqLVzykW03K8xOD9lID4" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img alt="" data-original-height="846" data-original-width="998" height="543" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEiQuxBtS-E3Q0UeqKUPy3xSOYyRp1Ag5aaZRaaxkSbrv2zcY2zuBb86NXi6A-GaJxWBEHdPOTKL924H-gdOVMxw8TMdYJO7-6ATLYRMTh8tiMLMKB5w3DaHIqV9-j7IqoUWC_TGdUwRRoUlZLi5fV8ZkIdEQ0-Ukjw6DH03Yv7vqLVzykW03K8xOD9lID4=w640-h543" width="640" /></a></div><br /> Lasting the entire month of Januar 2024. Remarkable, in the past, Arctic Ocean sea ice would have crushed this newer thinner shore sea ice in a matter of days.</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEiwg7AtqtO9bXLdW-Yv0ESk1Co1PV7NJ-Eztkt_ZmhhAaUxBP3qlj429GI0XhjDRDfGzxWRU6plVYxOrByFWfvL90nRQXgZItYnhAqLsyNUSvrVLkKlb96DFiYKKIAo70dZWiqWeOkkdg05g0L8xML4ZPoNqkNRexHH-UC4_oLsGvfWwiGVlAIEIEF3tjw" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img alt="" data-original-height="872" data-original-width="798" height="640" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEiwg7AtqtO9bXLdW-Yv0ESk1Co1PV7NJ-Eztkt_ZmhhAaUxBP3qlj429GI0XhjDRDfGzxWRU6plVYxOrByFWfvL90nRQXgZItYnhAqLsyNUSvrVLkKlb96DFiYKKIAo70dZWiqWeOkkdg05g0L8xML4ZPoNqkNRexHH-UC4_oLsGvfWwiGVlAIEIEF3tjw=w587-h640" width="587" /></a></div>A closer look loop of January 23 to February 16 2024, reveals the tidal breaking of all ice, new and old, moving in unison in the direction of the Arctic Ocean tidal gyre. There were several breaks similar to this. Thinner sea ice would break easier. However, the lack of ridging seems permanent, indicating a significant change in sea ice dynamics, this is quite unfamiliar, of course expected when the icescape features are fundamentally very different in overall thickness along with major weather pattern changes. WD February 18, 2024 <br /><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><br /></div> <p></p>EH2Rhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15138541663354420708noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1163623182638963042.post-17903697532958981452024-02-15T07:55:00.001-06:002024-02-15T21:43:49.154-06:00Warm 2023-2024 Worldwide shrinking of winter<p> ~600 mb pressure level closely indicates the temperature of the entire atmosphere</p><p>~ Current warming undeniably has changed weather patterns everywhere, strange or rare events are normal and common</p><p>~In essence, predicting long range weather will be even more difficult because we never been this warmed. Forecasting chaos is a safer bet. </p><p><br /></p><p><br /></p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiqePYIjuSGxMswjDHN37pM6ggb__v8z4-0b7geXAk0TKOvqN294FMupdAHFUX_10If-qzazk7WEkEWGmEZQtyCSI3wcsoLzn9181ToVCIHyrbTsxuZN5pn4jKpgbB4OVsJ-9cFv_ti3JgHHcThTxmc6JaAQq23M3fSqbMUwC3qL5vbffdh0LgQh9tGEyc/s724/smallestwarmest.gif" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="606" data-original-width="724" height="536" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiqePYIjuSGxMswjDHN37pM6ggb__v8z4-0b7geXAk0TKOvqN294FMupdAHFUX_10If-qzazk7WEkEWGmEZQtyCSI3wcsoLzn9181ToVCIHyrbTsxuZN5pn4jKpgbB4OVsJ-9cFv_ti3JgHHcThTxmc6JaAQq23M3fSqbMUwC3qL5vbffdh0LgQh9tGEyc/w640-h536/smallestwarmest.gif" width="640" /></a></div>GONE is thick sea ice driven cooling over the Arctic ocean, equally giving no Cold Temperature North Pole at the North Pole, as once was not so long ago. NEW patterns are a plenty; NEW by-Polar CTNP's over the continents, NEW deep warming incursions over the Arctic Ocean, NEW shrinking of the entire winter Zone for the Northern Hemisphere, finally CTNP's can dominate on one continent only, leaving the other with hibernating bees waking up mid winter. It is now quite foreseeable to visualize the future of winter with a much warmer Arctic Ocean zone cutting off the buildup of strong by-continental anticyclones shivering most of the world. <p></p><p> Next few months cooling and likely less of it will determine the coming weather for summer and fall. At present sea ice survives because of clouds, less coverage emperils the white cooling cap of the Polar North. Earth cooling system is hanging by a veil of fine water droplets and ice crystals along with a much thinner sea ice cover. Lets hope Polar clouds keep on reflecting sun rays to space, otherwise more weather chaos will ensue. Cloud are vey difficult to predict when moisture in Earth's atmosphere is on a world wide increase. The tipping point will occur when air temperatures reduce the formation of strati clouds, from there the end of summer sea ice will be, from that point winter will be split in two smaller areas. WD February 15 2024 </p><p> </p>EH2Rhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15138541663354420708noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1163623182638963042.post-50003133170114907782024-01-17T07:50:00.001-06:002024-01-17T07:50:26.341-06:00+2 degree world diminutive Polar Vortex, stretched South, not because it was colder in the Arctic. <p> ~Latest North American Polar Vortex was preceded by a huge North Pacific cyclone, effectively lowering Southwards the jet stream range.</p><p>~ Mild winter show of 2023-24 just had a Polar Vortex interruption which should be short lived, because the Northern Hemisphere winter build up is very small.</p><p> I think the weather medias are having a better understanding of the Polar Vortex phenom, excellent, but still don't understand how it is created, how it behaves, and especially where the cold air comes from in the first place. Cold air can be created South of the Arctic just as much as in the Arctic. All is required is clear air at night, a low sun during the day and snow on the ground. What makes the vortex apparently move are these 3 factors, it is not created by the Arctic atmosphere. If you know Earth Geodesy, the Arctic is a far smaller region than further South, it can't account for all the cold covering much bigger land areas many times its size. Broadcasted like "Arctic dome, Arctic blast" is misleading. What really happened of late is a huge North Pacific cyclone moved towards Alaska, this squeezed the small vortex buildup further South Eastwards, which onto itself built step by step cooling Southwards (inducing High pressure genesis). This is what most TV weather presenters call the Arctic blast, but this cold is homegrown, literally over your head. The sun altitude below 30 degree elevation at noon is rather weak, so Austin Texas, with current 38 degree sun elevation at noon, is not a bastion of heat, has the sun below 30 degrees elevation for most of the day, but is basically at the last step in this Southward cooling process, until the physical conditions that created this deep freezing disappear, like a nice warm breeze from the Gulf of Mexico. The susceptibility of the smaller Polar Vortex to be morphed, and therefore cause the stepping process has been documented right here on several occasions, when a place like Michigan has had the coldest air of the winter, colder than the Arctic, Siberia etc. </p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiOSFn00x05uL-7ObfvAptX2asVYgxFM1l2kDgPf487V5ieV-pa5-u9v9vwfQaXGOgTGcSTSm0OO2DMDsJrgeC7MeFHZgpQ-EN8odsdSKc6vRs6coKTo0e_cbOP-PZmt_kFGru-KBMl9AZQzycmNmKgKAwqDEhccxy4JqgrsTKX2y_BGVqh2sIZ98lk_98/s782/ttexas%20blast.gif" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="634" data-original-width="782" height="518" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiOSFn00x05uL-7ObfvAptX2asVYgxFM1l2kDgPf487V5ieV-pa5-u9v9vwfQaXGOgTGcSTSm0OO2DMDsJrgeC7MeFHZgpQ-EN8odsdSKc6vRs6coKTo0e_cbOP-PZmt_kFGru-KBMl9AZQzycmNmKgKAwqDEhccxy4JqgrsTKX2y_BGVqh2sIZ98lk_98/w640-h518/ttexas%20blast.gif" width="640" /></a></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><br /></div>U of Maine Climate Analyzer, 17 January 2024. What appears to be very cold, is not, the small Arctic has a huge warming anomaly (white Globe), while Arctic surface temperatures are still colder than most of the USA (reddish Globe), so much for an Arctic blast . Extreme cooling is a normal winter process especially when a High pressure system sluggishly moves Eastwards. However 15 C Arctic warming anomaly is not normal when not just one day event, most of the Arctic winter so far has been extraordinarily warmer. Again warmest ever, a decades old song that just cant stop repeating itself. WD January 17 2024<br /><p><br /></p><p> </p>EH2Rhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15138541663354420708noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1163623182638963042.post-72954720295878340642023-11-30T23:23:00.001-06:002023-11-30T23:24:33.851-06:00Warming a bit masked by sea ice extent minima numbers. Summer clouds from Global Warming excess moisture is saving Arctic sea ice from completely melting every year. <p> ~EH2r April sea ice projection morphology was bang on</p><p>~Extent numericals slightly off, again by underestimating cloud effects.</p><p>~Hudson Bay early December sea ice in dire straits. </p><p> April 2023 sea ice minima extent projection:</p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh-E-r0Z-U7jsZvOLbZm8goaim-dkLDAwyfQ-t2hr7ROG-Ak28_t2C5kWLp3zLhn3Lo0QE8MBqA_OJq3rDipj9V4iqFSaQTX2fwseUBWk3aUgx6yxoJURd_-nZx9E0bLB_hy6P0DlFLYL4XReeS0g_Cd0ebh59HR0DL2dwAPgROvMr6JK0npVUBsugXFTI/s512/trouble3.gif" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="338" data-original-width="512" height="211" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh-E-r0Z-U7jsZvOLbZm8goaim-dkLDAwyfQ-t2hr7ROG-Ak28_t2C5kWLp3zLhn3Lo0QE8MBqA_OJq3rDipj9V4iqFSaQTX2fwseUBWk3aUgx6yxoJURd_-nZx9E0bLB_hy6P0DlFLYL4XReeS0g_Cd0ebh59HR0DL2dwAPgROvMr6JK0npVUBsugXFTI/s320/trouble3.gif" width="320" /></a></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">Was very good. </div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><br /></div><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjPZEMGYHU9nFES-jKt5TKJt5dAAsL31-FuV0WV3haq5QoikqQMcuNPdJLd4Ulh_QDcL7F2q3Hh9ouaZhbMS1bcQBIsDTd2I8AvLeLnheWKlVsZaXf4pAVfb_Ulqm8SNnAu1vRvNmsL0hsvJ_w6ywwG344yHB1KRQBUm4j2gN6yL9TUn4IGCOqbJ7lOYTk/s726/trouble2.gif" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="726" data-original-width="480" height="640" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjPZEMGYHU9nFES-jKt5TKJt5dAAsL31-FuV0WV3haq5QoikqQMcuNPdJLd4Ulh_QDcL7F2q3Hh9ouaZhbMS1bcQBIsDTd2I8AvLeLnheWKlVsZaXf4pAVfb_Ulqm8SNnAu1vRvNmsL0hsvJ_w6ywwG344yHB1KRQBUm4j2gN6yL9TUn4IGCOqbJ7lOYTk/w424-h640/trouble2.gif" width="424" /></a></div> <p></p><p> Estimating sea ice morphology forecast breakthrough. How does one see it coming to be when there was so much ice cover in April? By finding out where the CTNP was located all winter. Cold Temperature North Pole winter 2022 2023 was peculiar. But severely studying its gyrations gave this remarkable success. However extent numbers were off by not so much, sea ice extent forecasting is much more easier to do than a few years prior though. The problem was the obsession with 2012 and 2007 minima's, which likely had more sunshine than all the other years, caused by combination of ENSO strengths and CTNP locations. Which is still the case, ENSO variant is particularly important. The more clouds covers Arctic summer the less sea ice melts. In particular 2007 had a great low albedo period, 2012 was a bit more complex, with a particularly warm Arctic spring, a CTNP geographical effect. Since then sea ice thickness shrank, gradually, with apparent moderation from greater cloud cover, mainly from the great North Pacific warm sea surface blob. </p><p> Indeed, Arctic sea ice can vanish almost completely given an extensive period of low cloud cover, The only way this can be done, would be by massive summer La- Nina, recent ones has had a hard time exceeding the moisture coming from the warm Pacific blob. It is a reprieve of sorts from yearly rapid sea ice extinction, however the gradual melt down continues unabated, heat from the surrounding massive oceans will eventually warm the Arctic Atmosphere causing less clouds. And cause what is already happening in some key areas, Hudson Bay being one of them:</p><p><br /></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhdQbRAxeRR4eqh1E-j0enKD3gT7oS655DPQT91_om2pQyx-8FV-2cE2rlH7IbN4ea8pGeQgqiMItFfBRlgEN1tRWaSskLkYnfssWhLRlIXV1n74_XM3L5gu40poDiaWH7z53TlWZEnZK0vax6nKgB8VNLhLWTMZTrCX30MLj-PYTWwhY9URn_3RMr-0bA/s322/trouble1.gif" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="322" data-original-width="270" height="640" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhdQbRAxeRR4eqh1E-j0enKD3gT7oS655DPQT91_om2pQyx-8FV-2cE2rlH7IbN4ea8pGeQgqiMItFfBRlgEN1tRWaSskLkYnfssWhLRlIXV1n74_XM3L5gu40poDiaWH7z53TlWZEnZK0vax6nKgB8VNLhLWTMZTrCX30MLj-PYTWwhY9URn_3RMr-0bA/w536-h640/trouble1.gif" width="536" /></a></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">Hudson Bay sea ice is more vulnerable because it is surrounded by land. which dries out some of the North Pacific and Atlantic moisture giving clouds. Now its virtually ice free when it should not be, likely from prolonged summer insolation warming . WD November 30, 2023</div><p></p>EH2Rhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15138541663354420708noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1163623182638963042.post-27867959767057569782023-07-13T11:42:00.002-05:002023-07-13T11:51:35.010-05:00This July STEADY to STOP weather was foreseen in April<p> ~Remarkable prediction success, the new world weather order is here to stay.</p><p> OK , back in April , July projection:</p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjG3S9DgWFKUxSpddFbl-LQ_S3TUy5-mEO_7wVzNYbvNyu-q5joUn-aPhaPavw_wDuAERCxFmXQVebJxNYXo9QCs18tc90doWjbXNvXy8Qtjcq8muFX-TAUqLDKZGldye7tO5S0P5rpLs7rVyK04iRXcw5tdpQX7EOZy_UsVMhjOPKgQjH21tR182Bubts/s772/steadysame1.gif" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="474" data-original-width="772" height="196" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjG3S9DgWFKUxSpddFbl-LQ_S3TUy5-mEO_7wVzNYbvNyu-q5joUn-aPhaPavw_wDuAERCxFmXQVebJxNYXo9QCs18tc90doWjbXNvXy8Qtjcq8muFX-TAUqLDKZGldye7tO5S0P5rpLs7rVyK04iRXcw5tdpQX7EOZy_UsVMhjOPKgQjH21tR182Bubts/s320/steadysame1.gif" width="320" /></a></div><br /><p></p><p>July 13, 2023:</p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgLa1g6AQma5KStbijmArN5TyYt2uittNttLj2GY8JZtcSfMZvpyIJqMVPs2H5KpRvO_jKynqrGyZA047jxgB3InqWUfmya-YOHEBmaNV6zTgogkpA1slGG0c6fbgCmr5fKPNvAX31i7F4htYx-44_u8-uxlrlj64fKNURIIgz9eD81kYHVxUcME5hsETo/s770/hotandsteady2.gif" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="468" data-original-width="770" height="388" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgLa1g6AQma5KStbijmArN5TyYt2uittNttLj2GY8JZtcSfMZvpyIJqMVPs2H5KpRvO_jKynqrGyZA047jxgB3InqWUfmya-YOHEBmaNV6zTgogkpA1slGG0c6fbgCmr5fKPNvAX31i7F4htYx-44_u8-uxlrlj64fKNURIIgz9eD81kYHVxUcME5hsETo/w640-h388/hotandsteady2.gif" width="640" /></a></div> "<a href="https://www.nbcnews.com/nightly-news-netcast/video/nightly-news-full-broadcast-july-12th-188016709840" target="_blank">Historic heat streak</a>" was twinned with historic flooding particularly in Vermont USA. EH2r April projection was <a href="2023 spring summer fall major weather patterns projection by unorthodox means, map projections" target="_blank">written</a>: <p></p><p> "<span face="Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif" style="background-color: #141414; color: white; font-size: 13px;">With steady stagnating weather over North America, where its hot will persist hot, where its moist will be soggier longer."</span></p><p><span face="Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif" style="background-color: #141414; color: white; font-size: 13px;"><br /></span></p><p> The larger picture is clear, July 13 CMC loop shows no apparent or slow circulation: </p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgy1T1uKo1di3IKP44YBPWTDEO1meYLJcxbtUeIxiCtuOuT1i5cQkRXhVVLJ9nqODsRBTNQOMOq70CZxtJEuBvTVX_ro_t1etXDELUTvQVQQSGNxYNANMBgbEGet8hjimEF-3qGdgdquWDWcfKOwD_sqsNGAWQY66gZ1FwDvbqIhGYB58u_ZRcdETjGmSk/s884/slowtostopa.gif" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="468" data-original-width="884" height="338" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgy1T1uKo1di3IKP44YBPWTDEO1meYLJcxbtUeIxiCtuOuT1i5cQkRXhVVLJ9nqODsRBTNQOMOq70CZxtJEuBvTVX_ro_t1etXDELUTvQVQQSGNxYNANMBgbEGet8hjimEF-3qGdgdquWDWcfKOwD_sqsNGAWQY66gZ1FwDvbqIhGYB58u_ZRcdETjGmSk/w640-h338/slowtostopa.gif" width="640" /></a></div>In fact it can be argued that the circulation has stopped in some parts :<p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj7YeMqoCm9_rwcgslxgHB9L2ADmJzb96Yv-Xxv5nlsV9nsaW-O_DMEJbypp8mOKEzlmZ0yfZuDMrVJLLJQnlspRVRaEpIjsq4oSgq5iqf7K26XqAYBXFlftoyzLcCbgFiBc1qE_eF4svhBUIa9_IdMNj7Jp7f66em8tPi2Xa2YyjHSeU4RFlxp6gFQBL0/s724/slowtosopb.gif" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="486" data-original-width="724" height="430" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj7YeMqoCm9_rwcgslxgHB9L2ADmJzb96Yv-Xxv5nlsV9nsaW-O_DMEJbypp8mOKEzlmZ0yfZuDMrVJLLJQnlspRVRaEpIjsq4oSgq5iqf7K26XqAYBXFlftoyzLcCbgFiBc1qE_eF4svhBUIa9_IdMNj7Jp7f66em8tPi2Xa2YyjHSeU4RFlxp6gFQBL0/w640-h430/slowtosopb.gif" width="640" /></a></div>Look at the mouse cursor pointing at Hudson Bay Low over one day, literally not moving, amongst other weather features, but of course around any cyclone there is movement. But when the cyclone stops moving, the larger general circulation is stagnant with respect to weather systems, this gives troubling weather at any time of the year... <div><br /></div><div> And so, Global Anthropogenic enhanced Warming, gives this kind of summer weather. Being able to predict this feature, was largely because the subject was observed many times, the mechanics was finally uncovered in large part because climate scientists accepted GAeW as a fact, they have taught this subject as best they could, and to prove this good understanding, the projection or forecast, from a humble student, had to come through . Anyone who does not dwell in this respected field, who makes stupid claims that GAeW is not happening has naturally failed to predict anything correctly ad nauseam, should be shunned. WD July 13, 2023<br /><div><p><br /></p></div></div>EH2Rhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15138541663354420708noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1163623182638963042.post-38779779686000525222023-05-25T00:40:00.005-05:002023-05-25T01:24:01.876-05:00EQUILIBRIUM , new horizon refraction discovery of what happens when Ti***=Tl***<p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEgOkJEseufS67sKrQX0ZQoNqeDLYK27vxLFckAX5fwpjY2Jk7-EEpAuVWzT45BONkBt-iJCUcwLK6iLZSVoRDGhhr-PLTz1jTw-GwVWvIDB8d6fzMb3MSIaz35NgmreZjE-Me6xAs4LTOlTGFXMGhwis-0GRzWyMBiqRrHjCJDGDOITL5npgXPUnY5K" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"><img alt="" data-original-height="590" data-original-width="514" height="320" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEgOkJEseufS67sKrQX0ZQoNqeDLYK27vxLFckAX5fwpjY2Jk7-EEpAuVWzT45BONkBt-iJCUcwLK6iLZSVoRDGhhr-PLTz1jTw-GwVWvIDB8d6fzMb3MSIaz35NgmreZjE-Me6xAs4LTOlTGFXMGhwis-0GRzWyMBiqRrHjCJDGDOITL5npgXPUnY5K=w278-h320" width="278" /></a></div> ~When heat radiation balance of Arctic lands equals Sea ice , something extraordinary happens. <div><br /></div><div>~The Northern Hemisphere general circulation radically changes. </div><div><br /></div><div> Whilst doing optical refraction research, I discovered a thermal balance horizon image, horizontal refraction between land covered by snow Tl***, was the same as horizontal refraction of sea ice covered by snow Ti***, on May17-18 this happened. I realized that this was an important moment, when the radiation balance of the entire Arctic became in equilibrium. Thus, there was no longer competing zones with the coldest air in the Arctic, the Cold Temperature North Pole, CTNP. But rather a Pole centric CTNP. Instead of 2 CTNP's on each continent there became only one.</div><div><br /></div><div> From May 7 to 17 the 600 mb coldest temperatures fractured the world with planetary waves right above,</div><div>the 2 CTNP's looked very much like Galaxy simulations about to merge. But the weather further South was perturbed by these waves, hence General Circulation flowed or surfed the waves. Which meant that in some zones , the weather appeared quite stable. All this changed on the 17th, where upon it is likely that the entire Arctic energy balance was more steady, no more was land surface colder than sea ice . Being equal means a consolidation of weather patterns. The North Pole is coldest now, because that is where the least sun radiation reaches the surface, the Arctic continents have warmed to the point where they have lost the ability to generate deep cooling.</div><div><br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEiB5MuDl5QnV5bD9azI-AK47IGgwpdYj-BLJbWbv7nBcPJdSbgTE0inPid3ogIzNsVJl4_SOBteEOKPXNBGf-Gsw2kgdgjckWTP5aiKK7cpHDwuuIO3OKo3sjljsqScPMFrm3LuqSMQzgRYooEg-OAvWU2lSuRiNmB6FRAHxG11rnCQroSAMa1lc7Ym" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img alt="" data-original-height="590" data-original-width="514" height="320" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEiB5MuDl5QnV5bD9azI-AK47IGgwpdYj-BLJbWbv7nBcPJdSbgTE0inPid3ogIzNsVJl4_SOBteEOKPXNBGf-Gsw2kgdgjckWTP5aiKK7cpHDwuuIO3OKo3sjljsqScPMFrm3LuqSMQzgRYooEg-OAvWU2lSuRiNmB6FRAHxG11rnCQroSAMa1lc7Ym=w278-h320" width="278" /></a></div><br />May 18 onwards , left, 600 mb represents the Density Weighted Temperature of the entire troposphere, at least it is the closest standard level to it. Here we see the North Pole centric nature of a single CTNP. This brings about a much more fluid weather circulation pattern Southwards, with planetary waves far less spread out, otherwise if longer causing such weather phenomena as "Omega Blocks" . This less mega wavy geometry has coincided with the land and sea ice horizon refraction being equal, for many days since the 17th . Near North Pole weather is far steadier as well, with frequent Quasi Stationary pressure systems, again appearing within a day when optical refraction on land became undistinguishable with sea ice. This Arctic equilibrated surface thermal feature completely has changed weather Northern World wide. </div><div><br /></div><div><br /></div><div><br /></div><div><br /></div><div><br /></div><div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjuDlqKT2XR0hcHuUVOPnh9661z-YLWkUtrADnH5aKlawRju8UdC7Sr3mqkwF1wstFaUW7U2iAMh2Rev3rA6YLzyPayBPDdLk6yJvelHWKQwHWqSMJGznxS6Cm5QhGe3ACk6DnbWw0s6CnHqzOkh5Nx2QTPwcnPmSUUoSdGzUOThpJxGFEkpFZ75F3P/s854/May-2021%2006121800.gif" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="582" data-original-width="854" height="436" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjuDlqKT2XR0hcHuUVOPnh9661z-YLWkUtrADnH5aKlawRju8UdC7Sr3mqkwF1wstFaUW7U2iAMh2Rev3rA6YLzyPayBPDdLk6yJvelHWKQwHWqSMJGznxS6Cm5QhGe3ACk6DnbWw0s6CnHqzOkh5Nx2QTPwcnPmSUUoSdGzUOThpJxGFEkpFZ75F3P/w640-h436/May-2021%2006121800.gif" width="640" /></a></div><br /> CMC surface analysis May 20 at 06 12 18 and may 21 00 UTC . Look at the QS , Quasi Stationary Cyclone at the North Pole, WD May 25 2023<p></p></div>EH2Rhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15138541663354420708noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1163623182638963042.post-9614564915460849212023-04-29T16:40:00.001-05:002023-04-29T22:05:49.960-05:002023 spring summer fall major weather patterns projection by unorthodox means, map projections<p> ~Not quite 2022 more like 2007 spring and 2012 August</p><p>C is Cold Temperature North Pole, in green is the jet stream, dominant locations of cyclones and anticyclones are placed, the latter means more often than not you will see a High or a Low on the coming weather maps. </p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhNZqfyhCF0b6zGcV7gcmnLvLP5cLPKyUjDlJsyPRAeZiS0C19Di7gpIopPDnk89jwDQQC7Piy5SumduB7qkPNeUMp0IkFhgkIQnuH8lvdI2Wouzf03Hv71IeZHITM-z1k1ChDSwlI2-pQlXqn-VnYEZx7ASityWl8-ZX5Vec3UDoG1ZJhwXRFu5Bz4/s1038/MAY-JUNE%2021.gif" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="816" data-original-width="1038" height="504" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhNZqfyhCF0b6zGcV7gcmnLvLP5cLPKyUjDlJsyPRAeZiS0C19Di7gpIopPDnk89jwDQQC7Piy5SumduB7qkPNeUMp0IkFhgkIQnuH8lvdI2Wouzf03Hv71IeZHITM-z1k1ChDSwlI2-pQlXqn-VnYEZx7ASityWl8-ZX5Vec3UDoG1ZJhwXRFu5Bz4/w640-h504/MAY-JUNE%2021.gif" width="640" /></a></div> <b>May to June 21, </b> 2 CTNP zones, the Ellesmere Island one stronger of late, but the real cold imprint was from Northeastern Siberian CTNP's dominating during much of the winter. The Arctic Basin Gyre switchover will occur late, at around the solstice, which means a great potential strong melt North of Beaufort sea but this will be slowed by Cyclonic clouds. Rainy on the Northwest North American coast, but somewhat not diluvial since the great SST North Pacific warm blob is smaller than recent previous years. Northern Europe would have the benefit of clouds as opposed to the Mediterranean shores baking. <div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi6SIRZdQN9jwSjI66KD66Ebg-fY5SMXY9mZBbxfcMhA7UcDk_sqIH4VtcKVucL3XSsJ0OqRJktQ0CgjaTlWCKFFPBZzE9QGnTmghKUu0dcflUX0_ZRNwSnqgFoZz02Ehn2PIKzKAb2VgUb7WUbV0rXOxLIUy97NDeiG-3_afCC0g4MZ4gv3FWcgqv_/s768/Junu21%20September%2015.gif" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="764" data-original-width="768" height="636" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi6SIRZdQN9jwSjI66KD66Ebg-fY5SMXY9mZBbxfcMhA7UcDk_sqIH4VtcKVucL3XSsJ0OqRJktQ0CgjaTlWCKFFPBZzE9QGnTmghKUu0dcflUX0_ZRNwSnqgFoZz02Ehn2PIKzKAb2VgUb7WUbV0rXOxLIUy97NDeiG-3_afCC0g4MZ4gv3FWcgqv_/w640-h636/Junu21%20September%2015.gif" width="640" /></a></div> <b> June 21 till mid September</b>, sea ice direct sun melt reprieve with the Low pressure mainly hanging on top of the Arctic Ocean Gyre, along with North Pacific in provenance moisture, giving clouds, mitigating an otherwise disastrous start of the melt season. With steady stagnating weather over North America, where its hot will persist hot, where its moist will be soggier longer. It will be stubbornly cloudy for most of North of Russia Arctic ocean shores throughout the sea ice melt season. However disastrously hot over most of Siberia at some distance from the Arctic Ocean. Likewise extreme heat in Europe and North Africa. Not to be as bad in North America, because of the sea surface high temperature blob of the North Pacific injecting moisture eventually mixing with Gulf of Mexico evaporation for the East coast, proximity to El-Nino will add up favoring more clouds as well. Even with very slow to not moving systems, multiple heat waves will abound. Along with a very slow moving hurricanes and typhoons most having great strength , fortunately not as frequently landing to shore, with hurricanes and typhoons mainly wandering aimlessly over very warmed up ocean sectors, but those who do reach land will not be pleasant, with not much returning to normal after passage. <div><br /></div><div><b>The ultimate test of understanding our present climate, sea ice projections. </b></div><div><b><br /></b></div><div><b> </b> Ever so difficult to be exact, more so than any climate projection attempts, is the sea ice extent at minima , usually mid-September, here is a look at last years projection adjoined with 2022 actual JAXA extent on September 15: <div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhFag-Cn7uY2C5tVajEO6zTQI-Bn18Moo84UsmIZYs7VU43zo3cOUQPsIdSgSCh2eLOHabGqwPQ0FMDMNTrmOQSxt1m_RZtrh0vyKM7j3TYAwQ69LMQ4AQOp84PlLUEiVtpbNHXjWLLBJASjSYflRW629pQGUbM63DWj4rpXlah7XG21v6Euj5RT0pH/s1183/sea%20ice%20compare%202022.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="532" data-original-width="1183" height="288" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhFag-Cn7uY2C5tVajEO6zTQI-Bn18Moo84UsmIZYs7VU43zo3cOUQPsIdSgSCh2eLOHabGqwPQ0FMDMNTrmOQSxt1m_RZtrh0vyKM7j3TYAwQ69LMQ4AQOp84PlLUEiVtpbNHXjWLLBJASjSYflRW629pQGUbM63DWj4rpXlah7XG21v6Euj5RT0pH/w640-h288/sea%20ice%20compare%202022.png" width="640" /></a></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">2022 projection failed in morphology on the Russian Quadrant from the North Pole , not so much in over all extent. I am more confident about this years shape of sea ice minima perimeter to come:</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiUzxCXuxqDVU3cFJ4WlK-QbaTj0ZWb7SIDBfsY60vkGbnqCkcFDE8XpQf7j3fkuq3cYdyXcueCeGw_OkaIg73WNs11d0i_Z0a-1Q0_GlSsq2-xWgDVxJklsh23L1ilUA-TBN3vBAj0gOh6jbHt1FYli8nVB-6kkEaLoT_LbX0sK39sh1FOFGCy3ibs/s714/minima%20sea%20ice.gif" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="680" data-original-width="714" height="381" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiUzxCXuxqDVU3cFJ4WlK-QbaTj0ZWb7SIDBfsY60vkGbnqCkcFDE8XpQf7j3fkuq3cYdyXcueCeGw_OkaIg73WNs11d0i_Z0a-1Q0_GlSsq2-xWgDVxJklsh23L1ilUA-TBN3vBAj0gOh6jbHt1FYli8nVB-6kkEaLoT_LbX0sK39sh1FOFGCy3ibs/w400-h381/minima%20sea%20ice.gif" width="400" /></a></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">The 2023 minima should have finally less sea ice than 2012, despite the clouds</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">from El-Nino and the North Pacific blob, primarily because there will be a 2012 cyclonic repeats in August, and since the over all sea ice is thinner than ever. The NW Archipelago shores should appear more open at times because of the effects from these Arctic Ocean Gyre hovering cyclones, despite sea ice tendency of piling up or ridging on the archipelago coast by the tides. WD April 29. 2023</div></div>EH2Rhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15138541663354420708noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1163623182638963042.post-36724707785329073982023-04-28T23:13:00.004-05:002023-04-29T13:55:09.338-05:002023 spring summer fall major weather patterns projection by unorthodox means<p class="p1" style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-size: 20px; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">~Unusual winter CTNP pattern has created a ripe sea ice-scape for a 2007 melt scenario.</span></p><p class="p3" style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-size: 14px; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;">~The North Pacific high sea temperature anomaly has been tamed, sort of,<span class="Apple-converted-space"> </span>mainly on North West American continent coast</p><p class="p3" style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-size: 14px; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;">~Stable temperatures will start early for most of the US and Canada</p><p class="p3" style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-size: 14px; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;">~While rains will be confined again to extreme NW Europe</p><p class="p2" style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-size: 14px; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 16px;"><br /></p><p class="p3" style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-size: 14px; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><b>Sea ice First Melt, a sign of 2016 like melting<span class="Apple-converted-space"> </span></b></p><p class="p2" style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-size: 14px; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 16px;"><br /></p><p class="p3" style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-size: 14px; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;">2 major factors have permeated vast swats of sea ice, one is a lesser snow cover, the other except for a brief period, was a milder High Arctic winter. It is complicated, less snow cover means thicker sea ice accretion, but this was largely tempered by the milder winter in total darkness.<span class="Apple-converted-space"> </span>This makes the cold sea ice core not susceptible to cause significant horizon refraction, but until warmer spring temperatures happened.<span class="Apple-converted-space"> </span>Therefore, we have a first year ice likely encouraging a more rapid melt, snow conduction cools the melting process a lot, bereft of strong snow albedo,<span class="Apple-converted-space"> </span>new year sea ice will vanish quicker.</p><p class="p2" style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-size: 14px; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 16px;"><br /></p><p class="p3" style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-size: 14px; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span class="Apple-converted-space"> </span>First sea ice bottom melt can be detected when the astronomical horizon height is equal to the sea ice horizon, it basically tells the melting rate for later in spring and summer. <span class="Apple-converted-space"> </span></p><p class="p2" style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-size: 14px; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 16px;"><br /></p><p class="p3" style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-size: 14px; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span class="Apple-converted-space"> </span>Last 9 years comparison results includes 2023 next to 2016,<span class="Apple-converted-space"> </span>a great sea ice melt year. <span class="Apple-converted-space"> </span>There is great potential for the new sea ice to vanish quickly,<span class="Apple-converted-space"> </span>given future sunny conditions, <span class="Apple-converted-space"> </span>which is determined by additional means,<span class="Apple-converted-space"> </span>so it goes like this:</p><p class="p2" style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-size: 14px; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 16px;"><br /></p><p class="p3" style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-size: 14px; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;">2018-2015-2022-2023-2016-2020-2019-2013-2017-2021</p><p class="p2" style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-size: 14px; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 16px;"><br /></p><p class="p3" style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-size: 14px; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span class="Apple-converted-space"> </span>2021 had a lot of snow on top of sea ice, it is a great factor in saving it from melting fast.<span class="Apple-converted-space"> </span>2023 had mainly new sea ice in the observation field, melt pond indicator should be weak given none abundant snow cover not only here but everywhere. <span class="Apple-converted-space"> </span></p><p class="p2" style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-size: 14px; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 16px;"><br /></p><p class="p2" style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-size: 14px; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 16px;"><b>Vertical sun disk diameters, what is the score?</b></p><p class="p2" style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-size: 14px; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 16px;"><br /></p><p class="p3" style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-size: 14px; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;">Maximum decimal expanded vertical sun disks per year:<span class="Apple-converted-space"> </span></p><p class="p2" style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-size: 14px; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 16px;"><br /></p><p class="p2" style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-size: 14px; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 16px;"><span class="Apple-converted-space"> </span></p><p class="p3" style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-size: 14px; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;">2018<span class="Apple-tab-span" style="white-space: pre;"> </span>2019<span class="Apple-tab-span" style="white-space: pre;"> </span>2020<span class="Apple-tab-span" style="white-space: pre;"> </span>2003<span class="Apple-tab-span" style="white-space: pre;"> </span>2022<span class="Apple-tab-span" style="white-space: pre;"> </span>2002<span class="Apple-tab-span" style="white-space: pre;"> </span>2023<span class="Apple-tab-span" style="white-space: pre;"> </span>2004<span class="Apple-tab-span" style="white-space: pre;"> </span>2007<span class="Apple-tab-span" style="white-space: pre;"> </span>2008<span class="Apple-tab-span" style="white-space: pre;"> </span>2014<span class="Apple-tab-span" style="white-space: pre;"> </span>2011</p><p class="p3" style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-size: 14px; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span class="Apple-converted-space"> </span>0<span class="Apple-tab-span" style="white-space: pre;"> </span> <span class="Apple-converted-space"> </span>0<span class="Apple-tab-span" style="white-space: pre;"> </span> <span class="Apple-converted-space"> </span>0<span class="Apple-tab-span" style="white-space: pre;"> </span> <span class="Apple-converted-space"> </span>1<span class="Apple-tab-span" style="white-space: pre;"> </span><span class="Apple-converted-space"> </span>1<span class="Apple-tab-span" style="white-space: pre;"> </span> <span class="Apple-converted-space"> </span>2<span class="Apple-tab-span" style="white-space: pre;"> </span> <span class="Apple-converted-space"> </span>2<span class="Apple-tab-span" style="white-space: pre;"> </span> <span class="Apple-converted-space"> </span>4<span class="Apple-tab-span" style="white-space: pre;"> </span> <span class="Apple-converted-space"> </span>4<span class="Apple-tab-span" style="white-space: pre;"> </span> <span class="Apple-converted-space"> </span>4<span class="Apple-tab-span" style="white-space: pre;"> </span><span class="Apple-converted-space"> </span>4<span class="Apple-tab-span" style="white-space: pre;"> </span> <span class="Apple-converted-space"> </span>5</p><p class="p3" style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-size: 14px; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span class="Apple-tab-span" style="white-space: pre;"> </span>2017<span class="Apple-tab-span" style="white-space: pre;"> </span>2012<span class="Apple-tab-span" style="white-space: pre;"> </span>2021<span class="Apple-tab-span" style="white-space: pre;"> </span>2009<span class="Apple-tab-span" style="white-space: pre;"> </span>2010<span class="Apple-tab-span" style="white-space: pre;"> </span>2013<span class="Apple-tab-span" style="white-space: pre;"> </span>2005<span class="Apple-tab-span" style="white-space: pre;"> </span>2006<span class="Apple-tab-span" style="white-space: pre;"> </span>2015<span class="Apple-tab-span" style="white-space: pre;"> </span>2016</p><p class="p3" style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-size: 14px; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span class="Apple-tab-span" style="white-space: pre;"> </span> <span class="Apple-converted-space"> </span>5<span class="Apple-tab-span" style="white-space: pre;"> </span> <span class="Apple-converted-space"> </span>6<span class="Apple-tab-span" style="white-space: pre;"> </span><span class="Apple-converted-space"> </span>6<span class="Apple-tab-span" style="white-space: pre;"> </span> <span class="Apple-converted-space"> </span>8<span class="Apple-tab-span" style="white-space: pre;"> </span> <span class="Apple-converted-space"> </span>8<span class="Apple-tab-span" style="white-space: pre;"> </span> <span class="Apple-converted-space"> </span>8<span class="Apple-converted-space"> </span>9<span class="Apple-tab-span" style="white-space: pre;"> </span><span class="Apple-converted-space"> </span>10<span class="Apple-tab-span" style="white-space: pre;"> </span><span class="Apple-converted-space"> </span>13<span class="Apple-tab-span" style="white-space: pre;"> </span> <span class="Apple-converted-space"> </span>19</p><p class="p2" style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-size: 14px; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 16px;"><br /></p><p class="p2" style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-size: 14px; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 16px;"><br /></p><p class="p3" style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-size: 14px; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span class="Apple-converted-space"> </span>2023 was done with 550 sun disk measurements, from 119 elevation decimal levels, with observation period from late February to end of April. <span class="Apple-converted-space"> </span>2023 results are in the same modern era of the recent great Cold Temperature North Pole displacement, largely hovering to the Northwards, highly concentrated in the North Baffin to Ellesmere Island area of late.<span class="Apple-converted-space"> The greatest</span> cooling was determined by refraction measurements especially above 5 degrees altitude, which matches to where Green House gas induced cooling should exist, upwards from the mid layer of the atmosphere, this data is very compelling,<span class="Apple-converted-space"> </span>as the surface warms,<span class="Apple-converted-space"> </span>the near horizon sun disks expand along with sunsets shifting Northwards,<span class="Apple-converted-space"> while </span>the upper mid layer and above cools, compressed sun disks happen,<span class="Apple-converted-space"> </span>with literally multiple thousands disk measurements confirming this. <span class="Apple-converted-space"> </span>2016 was the last year when colder air was less centralized within the Polar Vortex, up to that year the High Arctic atmosphere cold air was more geographically spread out and homogenized. <span class="Apple-converted-space"> </span>Since after 2016 the Polar Vortex shrank in geography, became highly stable over the said smaller portion of the High Arctic.<span class="Apple-converted-space"> </span>Sun disk measurements have lost the ability to predict Global temperatures since that year as well. <span class="Apple-converted-space"> </span>But knowing this gives a better idea of how long the CTNP would subsist into spring.<span class="Apple-converted-space"> </span>2018 to 2020 had a very strong frozen area over the Canadian High Arctic. This withered a bit in 2021, only to continue in strength in 2022 and 2023. <span class="Apple-converted-space"> </span>Its best looking at sun disks between the years 2018-2023, 2023 had the second warmest CTNP at the coldest core of the Polar Vortex, a sign,<span class="Apple-converted-space"> </span>the stable extreme but smaller cold zone is warming year by year.<span class="Apple-converted-space"> </span></p><p class="p2" style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-size: 14px; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 16px;"><br /></p><p class="p2" style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-size: 14px; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 16px;"><br /></p><p class="p3" style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-size: 14px; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><b>Massive Sunset Field shift</b></p><p class="p2" style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-size: 14px; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 16px;"><b></b><br /></p><p class="p3" style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-size: 14px; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><b> </b>EH2r sunset monitoring had the largest field shift in sunset tardiness,<span class="Apple-converted-space"> </span>whereas the West,<span class="Apple-converted-space"> </span>the traditional tardiness quadrant,<span class="Apple-converted-space"> </span>became tame,<span class="Apple-converted-space"> </span>and the Northwest<span class="Apple-converted-space"> </span>had very late sunsets for the first time ever.<span class="Apple-converted-space"> </span>One at 92.54 Zenith angle and some 7 degrees Northwards compared to previous records going back to 2001,<span class="Apple-converted-space"> </span>there were others up to 3 degrees azimuth Northwards,<span class="Apple-converted-space"> </span>huge numbers, <span class="Apple-converted-space"> </span>in the past they were very predictable and tame compared to the Western field.<span class="Apple-converted-space"> </span>This basically<span class="Apple-converted-space"> </span>infers a very rapid warming of the ground and sea ice,<span class="Apple-converted-space"> </span>due to lack of<span class="Apple-converted-space"> </span>snow and no deeply entrenched in the ground or ice winter cooling during the long night. <span class="Apple-converted-space"> </span></p><p class="p2" style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-size: 14px; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 16px;"><br /></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhRtsiZiVBzg_cNbftTPw6WM7heIIZ1xRx1bbUAj66sEiVn3FZukLq81PuCAwTv79j2-YqUpqTy-FsmKp58CgiVhEznKOvhersYgyBr0etlI6XpTrZMXHw6IZfZNPgTG6hve4OvKP-Pj_hcWSx5_R2RslQRi2pkb0f_3Tacu-Q5N91m9rr5wHpthct_/s1270/Sheridan.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="494" data-original-width="1270" height="248" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhRtsiZiVBzg_cNbftTPw6WM7heIIZ1xRx1bbUAj66sEiVn3FZukLq81PuCAwTv79j2-YqUpqTy-FsmKp58CgiVhEznKOvhersYgyBr0etlI6XpTrZMXHw6IZfZNPgTG6hve4OvKP-Pj_hcWSx5_R2RslQRi2pkb0f_3Tacu-Q5N91m9rr5wHpthct_/w640-h248/Sheridan.png" width="640" /></a></div><br style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: 14px;" /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: 14px; text-align: left;">Fata Morgana of Cape Sheridan hill, never seen before in 37 years.</span><span class="Apple-converted-space" style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: 14px; text-align: left;"> </span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: 14px; text-align: left;">23 of which were intensely observed. </span><span class="Apple-converted-space" style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: 14px; text-align: left;"> </span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: 14px; text-align: left;"> </span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: 14px; text-align: left;"><br /></span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: 14px; text-align: left;"> </span></div><p class="p2" style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-size: 14px; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 16px;"></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEjJm336yQr2m3sX7iGSVwuCElKn_IveA1vmbRToi6WUFmEViFoPhd69kBaxXnklAOqiqmiooEo9ZGsSOVIMug1lQa7k284ugwi39eiQbZkh9akb-mAeHlvhd4oEkhUKRKnBbG9jFYMFxk9LMEkgPJvxpTkTTd1UneAxltF9nRACmMFbNEQA3uIHzOZD" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img alt="" data-original-height="737" data-original-width="949" height="497" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEjJm336yQr2m3sX7iGSVwuCElKn_IveA1vmbRToi6WUFmEViFoPhd69kBaxXnklAOqiqmiooEo9ZGsSOVIMug1lQa7k284ugwi39eiQbZkh9akb-mAeHlvhd4oEkhUKRKnBbG9jFYMFxk9LMEkgPJvxpTkTTd1UneAxltF9nRACmMFbNEQA3uIHzOZD=w640-h497" width="640" /></a></div><p></p><p class="p3" style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-size: 14px; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span class="Apple-converted-space"> </span>Part of April 7 sunset , 2.54 degrees below the horizon, 7.5<span class="Apple-converted-space"> </span>degrees to the Northwards from multiple past steady observations,<span class="Apple-converted-space"> </span>equivalent of 15 sun disks place one next to the other. <span class="Apple-converted-space"> </span>Both sun and sea ice horizon line were highly raised by strong<span class="Apple-converted-space"> </span>inversion,<span class="Apple-converted-space"> this was </span>never recorded or seen since 2001, the ground surface appears darker, with rock ridges mixed with patchy snow coverage. <span class="Apple-converted-space"> </span></p><p class="p3" style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-size: 14px; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><br /></p><p class="p3" style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-size: 14px; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span class="Apple-converted-space"> </span>This is particularly what Climate Change literally looks like,<span class="Apple-converted-space"> </span>the optical effects of Global Warming in a place<span class="Apple-converted-space"> </span>far away from any industry or urban development,<span class="Apple-converted-space"> </span>as far away as you can imagine,<span class="Apple-converted-space"> this Arctic land is </span>becoming and looking like a different world........<span class="Apple-converted-space"> M</span>ap projections in the next article.<span class="Apple-converted-space"> </span>WD April 28, 2023</p><p class="p2" style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-size: 14px; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 16px;"><br /></p>EH2Rhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15138541663354420708noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1163623182638963042.post-32527812269115357032023-04-05T23:55:00.000-05:002023-04-05T23:55:23.029-05:00April 5 2023 sunset, rapid surface air cooling by sea ice and permafrost. <p> ~It likely was a mix, warmed up thinner sea ice with little snow cover rapidly cooled surface air, but also on land (the appearing red flash), not having so much snow as well, warmed during a sunny day with light winds, with permafrost boosted cooling of interface air at sunset. </p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgQwHvkJ-qv-90PA4z9HEWQo0Sum8WQ518YjgaycLWYvnzDLVTk-Z-HMlKfci0TGIzkDz29iFAjhVSHAFxGD32nDFLgZ3mlpqjW9wPK1sjoiXT1Z1l1QnPFGFgryllA7aoZKcahrBQWBF88I8Qv9EG_Efy6k4Q9ZzOiCIWXcLRJK08gVuZkzKOSUf8l/s882/20230405.gif" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="810" data-original-width="882" height="588" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgQwHvkJ-qv-90PA4z9HEWQo0Sum8WQ518YjgaycLWYvnzDLVTk-Z-HMlKfci0TGIzkDz29iFAjhVSHAFxGD32nDFLgZ3mlpqjW9wPK1sjoiXT1Z1l1QnPFGFgryllA7aoZKcahrBQWBF88I8Qv9EG_Efy6k4Q9ZzOiCIWXcLRJK08gVuZkzKOSUf8l/w640-h588/20230405.gif" width="640" /></a></div><br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiIhJCvx8az5E_vbKtsSFuhX8BEC1RICVBhwqTA1tpRN7_dZog0g6jK1IEWtlWKohj2Mnoyu4D_Cs_dvGKJ3l2s5Iw_n-6Wca7AXrpwKmYSod0SilGgo_fGj5ryi9KJ9NanN6_NFlg2rX2HTGfXzO-aFeKhAZXtTTcfowGTvZwi4KMu10_fZtwkjMAF/s882/20230405a.gif" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="810" data-original-width="882" height="588" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiIhJCvx8az5E_vbKtsSFuhX8BEC1RICVBhwqTA1tpRN7_dZog0g6jK1IEWtlWKohj2Mnoyu4D_Cs_dvGKJ3l2s5Iw_n-6Wca7AXrpwKmYSod0SilGgo_fGj5ryi9KJ9NanN6_NFlg2rX2HTGfXzO-aFeKhAZXtTTcfowGTvZwi4KMu10_fZtwkjMAF/w640-h588/20230405a.gif" width="640" /></a></div> Must invert the GIF's for proper perspective. It has been a strange sunset season, mainly influenced by the least snow cover in many years. Top permafrost was vulnerable for a great cooling, however winter past was mainly warmer than usual, with only a few weeks of deep freezing hovering about -40 C. As a result we have had no very rapid rebound cooling on the surfaces, until air temperatures got warmer while permafrost and sea ice steady peak cold temperature layers became prominent compared to air temps, exacerbating stronger thermal inversions.... In other words, it is starting to be interesting late in the season, while it was very dull earlier. Notice the multi colour flashes, this was routine throughout winter when the sun was up, now we have to wait for temperature contrasts to form. WD April 5 2023<br /><p><br /></p><p><br /></p>EH2Rhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15138541663354420708noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1163623182638963042.post-24550776006992889542023-04-05T08:54:00.001-05:002024-03-08T07:58:07.560-06:00Astro dating Ancient Egyptian RA coronation ceremonies, the guide. <p> ~The research results leading up to this guide is kept for peer reviewing.</p><p>~The technique is simple and relies on the Great Pyramid establishing a standard precedent following centuries of a secret Pharaoh accession to the throne practices, which continued thereafter construction completion until the fall of the Pyramid age. </p><p> There is still a modern day <b> Khoiak,</b> a Coptic holiday starting in December of our calendar................. Long ago etymology likely derived from <b> Khu</b>fu<b> Ahk</b>et, the name of the Great Pyramid. In the architecture of the this pyramid we can find at least 2 yearly solar calendar dates. Being solar requires that these structures need be dedicated mostly Southwards. </p><p> The first incorporated date marker can still be in effect yearly in our modern times, it is in the Kings chamber, Southwards 45 degree shaft. In meticulous stone work is once again Ancient Egyptian obsession with the angle of 45 degrees. Many astronomers and Egyptologists, probably most of them, even the fringe theorists, have written this 45 degrees being related to Orion constellation belt stars, mainly circa 2570 BC. But this obsession predates 2570 BC by several 100 years. The autumnal sun transit angle at 45 degrees was prime, occurring once a year, signaling the start of the growing season, matched in religion at the same day as Osiris rebirth. Prominently written in the first the Palermo stone hieroglyphs, we find 1st dynasty Pharaoh estimated to be Djer or Djet having ascension to the throne Month 4 day 13, this should be November 1 (Gregorian, our calendar), considering the first day of the year is the heliacal rise of Sirius from 70 day absence, usually appearing on July 19. In the Great Pyramid King chamber South shaft, 45 degrees angle, shone the sun initiating the start of Hb Sb festival. It was so before this shaft was planned to be assembled, well before October 31 2370 BC, the likely date of Khufu's ascension and the start of the Great Pyramid construction. </p><p> 2 very important events, Osiris rebirth and start of seeding period was perfectly set day by the sun itself. It was officially meant to repeat itself every year and theoretically the sun should still shine in this shaft, despite no more Nile floods. </p><p> The second incorporated Pyramid date was fixed in stone but represents the era of 4th Dynasty Pharaohs. Carved in this one slope is a solar and Sirius co-joined date, November 20 2370 BC , "Ka-her-Ka", joining of the souls ceremony, a secret coronation ritual occurring when the transit of the Sun during the day is at the same level as the transit of Sirius during the night. This was a unique day, later related to the Queens Chamber South shaft angle of 39.6 degrees. In 2340 BC this ceremony was very likely held, but this time in the Queens chamber, the 30th year jubilee of Khufu. This is how the Great Pyramid can be dated. A method not only for pyramids, but valid for all other Pharaohs following the Solar/Sirius RA/Sopdet (Isis) perfect calendar who hopefully left a structure aimed at the sun and Sirius, a likewise engraving or strange writings with lines having angles a few degrees off from 40 degrees. 39.6 degrees set a precedent, it was unique for the Great Pyramid, the Cathedral of Ancient Egyptians who practiced the Solar religion ruled by RA. Post 4th dynasty, you need to find the Great Pyramid shaft angle of 39.6 etched somewhere and another higher slope angle feature in order to identify the cult practice. </p><p> The Great pyramids still offer complexities to be deciphered, but simplicity itself was hidden in front of everyone for generations. However, I am not sure if religious practices included dissemination knowledge about construction slopes to the contemporaneous populace, for certain this secret knowledge was surely entrenched and relearned by the solar RA priesthood for as long as it survived. The first of November was an important yearly event, the 45 degrees sun at noon, did not guarantee perfection with respect to the start of the seeding season, it was an angle with more religious and Pharaonic establishment connotations than with farming, moreover the Orion star belt has a level of meaning several magnitudes lower than a tangible relivable perfectly synchronized sun calendar day. </p><p><b>Recap:</b></p><p><br /></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhUlz-QytDThBGGdg8lAPoAUT8HEJQVSbnwjHriAmb3-mZ5JaSu0msW_wIqYcwZlXDAq2NY8Ei_HwCHbvzbrWX--UTrtW8aEj66pGueKs8isDdHXGDkTyTQjZUmM3UP8ZSahbqbp4VnlK8ahN21NIRJvVDmlG-mCvdjlbFOy3OvjLzSbQNOAEFsxbGu/s871/pyramid777.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="638" data-original-width="871" height="468" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhUlz-QytDThBGGdg8lAPoAUT8HEJQVSbnwjHriAmb3-mZ5JaSu0msW_wIqYcwZlXDAq2NY8Ei_HwCHbvzbrWX--UTrtW8aEj66pGueKs8isDdHXGDkTyTQjZUmM3UP8ZSahbqbp4VnlK8ahN21NIRJvVDmlG-mCvdjlbFOy3OvjLzSbQNOAEFsxbGu/w640-h468/pyramid777.png" width="640" /></a></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><span style="text-align: left;"> All known shafts except one seem to have a clear practical simple purpose. The King Chamber South 45 degree shaft can still be in use every year. The Queens chamber South shaft was not meant to be permanent, thus found sealed at both ends, it was part of a secret "joining of the souls" ceremony of the Pharaohs mainly for the 4th dynasty. especially dedicated for Khufu, the renewed "Pharaoh 0", enshrined forever. WD April 5 2023 </span></div><p><br /></p><p><br /></p><p><br /></p><p><br /></p><p><br /></p><p><br /></p><p>1 </p>EH2Rhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15138541663354420708noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1163623182638963042.post-28002697059734023282023-03-15T02:18:00.022-05:002023-04-15T00:22:51.877-05:00 An accurate historical timeline, vital for climate studies. New Archeoastronomy discoveries. Akhenaten Boundary Stelae linked with the Great Pyramid architecture might help perfect our Ancient Chronology, <div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgFxAOfBG-tj4x3w4D00LeDhiF_EGsZAVFGfHRIk2zVBnRAXYQQ8755Cz9evH4iPVt6k6O2xNGMrKijmunRl9ti33fz6t4pcELBcBPmKTj4xgiL9yelTVTju-fRb9-oNBC1L7RDLc_uxH_q7tB-9IXciIe1o35KKrVetyRho7GTgOS_XB-JTHoIcL9h/s871/pyra_animation44.gif" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="638" data-original-width="871" height="468" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgFxAOfBG-tj4x3w4D00LeDhiF_EGsZAVFGfHRIk2zVBnRAXYQQ8755Cz9evH4iPVt6k6O2xNGMrKijmunRl9ti33fz6t4pcELBcBPmKTj4xgiL9yelTVTju-fRb9-oNBC1L7RDLc_uxH_q7tB-9IXciIe1o35KKrVetyRho7GTgOS_XB-JTHoIcL9h/w640-h468/pyra_animation44.gif" width="640" /></a></div><br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgFE858-XThRo5npE0WZxSc_aJF8_5bpuR8eUgpLvG0fpW_vgXmMGkAnXX-bQucP-e7Sx5ih2PIrz7dIhbWmizJxznU7fjbDBeX1U3H8NstUe9apDSzNzO2vEtqBxFvlgYw0BoxxWlTdwC2ReNEOhIx8Xn5YpoU0PYvlfvuGAqC-5Kz0td21_pxTppT/s871/7.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="638" data-original-width="871" height="468" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgFE858-XThRo5npE0WZxSc_aJF8_5bpuR8eUgpLvG0fpW_vgXmMGkAnXX-bQucP-e7Sx5ih2PIrz7dIhbWmizJxznU7fjbDBeX1U3H8NstUe9apDSzNzO2vEtqBxFvlgYw0BoxxWlTdwC2ReNEOhIx8Xn5YpoU0PYvlfvuGAqC-5Kz0td21_pxTppT/w640-h468/7.jpg" width="640" /></a><span class="Apple-converted-space" style="font-family: Helvetica; font-size: 12px; text-align: left;"> O</span><span style="font-family: Helvetica; font-size: 12px; text-align: left;">n this </span><span style="font-family: Helvetica; font-size: 12px; text-align: left;">well leveled photo, </span><span style="font-family: Helvetica; font-size: 12px; text-align: left;"> we see boundary</span><span class="Apple-converted-space" style="font-family: Helvetica; font-size: 12px; text-align: left;"> </span><span style="font-family: Helvetica; font-size: 12px; text-align: left;">stela B</span><span style="font-family: Helvetica; font-size: 12px; text-align: left;">,</span><span class="Apple-converted-space" style="font-family: Helvetica; font-size: 12px; text-align: left;"> </span><span style="font-family: Helvetica; font-size: 12px; text-align: left;">at tell el-Amarna, ancient Akhetaten , juxtaposed with the Great Pyramid. There is a perfect alignment </span><span style="font-family: Helvetica; font-size: 12px; text-align: left;">by way of a single sun ray going down the great pyramid Queens chamber South shaft, </span><span class="Apple-converted-space" style="font-family: Helvetica; font-size: 12px; text-align: left;"> having the same angle as </span><span style="font-family: Helvetica; font-size: 12px; text-align: left;">with the ray touching Akhenaten's crown symbol called the Uraeus. </span><span class="Apple-converted-space" style="font-family: Helvetica; font-size: 12px; text-align: left;"> </span></div><p class="p1" style="font-family: Helvetica; font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-size: 12px; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 14px;"><br /></p><p class="p2" style="font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span class="Apple-converted-space" style="font-family: Helvetica; font-size: 12px;"> </span><br /> This seemingly impossible coincidence, between badly damaged Boundary Stela B single sun ray alignment is simply astounding. There was no software manipulation at all achieving this image, the Queen Chamber South shaft and Uraeus sun ray simply matched straight from the internet. <br /><br /> There is a very low probability for this alignment to ever happen by chance. However, there is an astronomical reason for this link. It was from an Ancient Egyptian coronation ritual practiced 1000 years apart. These coronations can help calculate a solid date, given that we have another sun angle for Akhenaten’s ascension day, tentatively crowned November 22 1313 BC. 39 years earlier than the official chronology. <br /><br /> Certain sun and Sirius positions in the sky inspired the very architecture of the Great Pyramid. It also provided by chance a general but much more focused construction period for the Great Pyramid as well. <br /><br /> The very altitude point in the sky when Sirius and the sun existed at the same level was the day when the RA coronations took place, this was the very reason for the South shaft angle found in the Great Pyramid Queens chamber. As Akhenatens Uraeus sun line strongly implies. <br /><br /> I’ve calculated, with the help and suggestions from a good friend, the construction start year for the Great Pyramid, 2370 BC, a year almost exactly in between the standard Chronology 2570 BC and the GP carbon dating multiple sample results of 4150 BP. The Great Pyramid was built in the age of Aries having a vernal equinox sunrise. This calculation is a very close approximation with a little margin of error. <br /><br /> To inspire further research, I have written two essays, one for each era, which need publication in an interested science journal. I can’t publish in a peer review journal at present because of resources not easily accessible in the Arctic. I am currently trying to find a partner co-author, it is a difficult almost impossible process given my isolation. Failing to find a journal willing to publish, these essays will be eventually read here, unfortunately not the greatest readership impact. Unable to have leveled higher resolution pictures, precludes acceptance to a journal. Because they can be made or exist and publishers like the best quality photos. High quality images also reduce the probability of error to a minimum. A small solace to ease the coming formidable doubts in the well established ancient chronology authority which will provide extremely stiff resistance, most likely ridicule, to stop any changes from happening at all. <br /><br /><b>Example of what an extensive warming period can do </b><br /><br /> The Pyramid civilization collapse has happened 200 years or so after the construction of the Great Pyramid. A lot of what was gained in technological advancements, much improved from or coming from the great man of science Imhotep, was lost. A massive intermediate period of famine with enormous chaos and destruction was the cause. Undocumented wars surely happened, enemies, without or within the climate affected countries always attacked their foes at their weakest moments.<br /><br /> The Great Pyramid was an awesome accomplishment. It also offers the best example in human history for showing the ravages from Global Warming as opposed to what can be accomplished when we do not waste resources on repairing climate driven disasters . Ancient Egypt went from eventually experimenting with pyramids having large stones, to accomplishing a few huge ones at Giza, seemingly perfect, then not long after, totally forgetting the techniques achieving them. The subsequent greatest structures were of mud brick, carved on or inside hills or with recycled stones from looting previous constructions. </p><p class="p2" style="font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><br /></p><p class="p2" style="font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"> The world today would be very different was it not for a small but significant climate warming periods devastating North Africa. What will happen to us with the ongoing super big global warming might be quite similar, despite our vastly improved technologies in some domains. <br /><br /><b>Current Ancient Chronology vs Greenland ice cores</b><br /><br /> In general if there is a colder Arctic, moisture from the Atlantic Ocean tends to flow West to East at a more Southward latitude towards the equator, providing greater cloud cover and of course heavier precipitation to Southern Europe and North Africa. Absent the cold winter atmosphere, moisture rich Atlantic ocean air tends to travel to Northern Europe, leaving North Africa much dryer. <br /><br />As a good example, at the moment, North Africa has some moisture driven by present colder winter<br /><br /></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiKCJiAZs-V1o61sXfVCe9j9L_MRfJIvCEWNAL7PiRa4-pN1XanTx4_J_j8AbcWh-7U9YccsQDoM7_3Ir3G63zKSU6E0NJDBUxW-4bCaXkKJd_tDDw0eYOWh6AJu0ZpHZ7DX-nyMeMKWxHKZi1VqoC47CD49qjNRcsN68zGXFb2e8fZ2MjO7GM-aPxN/s330/march%2013-17%202023.gif" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="330" data-original-width="312" height="640" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiKCJiAZs-V1o61sXfVCe9j9L_MRfJIvCEWNAL7PiRa4-pN1XanTx4_J_j8AbcWh-7U9YccsQDoM7_3Ir3G63zKSU6E0NJDBUxW-4bCaXkKJd_tDDw0eYOWh6AJu0ZpHZ7DX-nyMeMKWxHKZi1VqoC47CD49qjNRcsN68zGXFb2e8fZ2MjO7GM-aPxN/w606-h640/march%2013-17%202023.gif" width="606" /></a></div><p></p>MIMIC-TPW ver.2 March 13 to 17 2023, Total Precipitable water, we see the source of water for the Nile from the East, and also in particular the cloud source for Northern Egypt, from the West. This is what a cold Arctic atmosphere does to North Africa. <div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><br style="text-align: left;" /><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi1XKHfHT5Qf11rgC9-0z4ibEd8e75BiWlJ6Yv15Ns6ZhgtsM3uIpxJRdaApsIZcKdsLDF_18Vnf7Ks_V2i5c_OMrKlqBz3iESgKiHcF8Ss-ioJkSYkwK-0bEaLPIZMNDW4BnQBxKqKF4zKflpa4kcoME4Cy-20BJNsTZTyLH4anXB0i9LYEHRCEkR3/s745/GRIP.png" style="text-align: left;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi1XKHfHT5Qf11rgC9-0z4ibEd8e75BiWlJ6Yv15Ns6ZhgtsM3uIpxJRdaApsIZcKdsLDF_18Vnf7Ks_V2i5c_OMrKlqBz3iESgKiHcF8Ss-ioJkSYkwK-0bEaLPIZMNDW4BnQBxKqKF4zKflpa4kcoME4Cy-20BJNsTZTyLH4anXB0i9LYEHRCEkR3/w640-h574/GRIP.png" /></a><span style="text-align: left;"> Greenland ice core temperature reconstruction.</span><br style="text-align: left;" /><br style="text-align: left;" /><span style="text-align: left;">During ancient history, there were great droughts, one in particular , namely during the famous first intermediate period, according to present chronology it was 2183 to 2060 BC. Officially on this GISP2 graph, it was a cooling period.</span><br style="text-align: left;" /><br style="text-align: left;" /><span style="text-align: left;">Another one, here we see 2570 BC in the middle of a significant warming trend, not necessarily a drought driven period (I have not read about a drought during the first 3 Ancient Egyptian dynasties) but it was not a wet period. Gisp2 graph 2370 BC had a more stable temperature period, likely when a lot of resources were not spent on survival, but rather on some construction projects. There are other examples of interest to pick at. But lacking a high precision chronology history, makes ice core analysis somewhat tenuous.</span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEjupDT7Q-EXAd7U4Cbfq5OtVHZqa-aSQGahnJ74veB71k8dBZeqUDAE7HdaoHtuLlhi4VpZsABLGOKbaelsquE77c60Ch4tUNLmuBn9edulQUIcVLo0yFyQ4aRsqODh-IXvt7Dogwe-Sc5Vo-Ayq53_Dq6b_x-MK6jagUkFa4Y7Gxgs5pbMN8Y9lYVg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img alt="" data-original-height="669" data-original-width="745" height="575" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEjupDT7Q-EXAd7U4Cbfq5OtVHZqa-aSQGahnJ74veB71k8dBZeqUDAE7HdaoHtuLlhi4VpZsABLGOKbaelsquE77c60Ch4tUNLmuBn9edulQUIcVLo0yFyQ4aRsqODh-IXvt7Dogwe-Sc5Vo-Ayq53_Dq6b_x-MK6jagUkFa4Y7Gxgs5pbMN8Y9lYVg=w640-h575" width="640" /></a></div><br />Ancient Chronology in yellow, does not make any climate sense, Prior to about 1000 BC, devastating droughts of the 1st and 2nd intermediate periods occurred during prolonged cooling trends. The archeo astronomically calculated corrected timeline (in green), shifting the Great Pyramids 200 years earlier, appears far more apt. Alexander the Great timeline is not modified, the chronology seems more precise going forward in time from that point, but what we see here is a pattern. War or civil wars comes about a lot during the warming periods. The said Zenith era of Ancient Egypt , from 18th Dynasty pharaoh Hatshepsut onwards was during a cooling period following a 2nd massive intermediate warming era which ended in wars. </div></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><br style="text-align: left;" /><span style="text-align: left;">In these warming days with extreme and well documented climate and weather disasters, it is imperative to understand the historical repercussions of a warming world more than ever. WD March 15-16 2023</span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><span style="background-color: black; color: white;"><br /></span></div><span style="background-color: black;"><span style="font-size: xx-small;">Age of Great Pyramid. Great Pyramid . Ancient Chronology correction . Ancient Chronology is wrong . How old is the Great Pyramid? . Corrected Ancient chronology . Proving age of Great Pyramid . Queen Chamber . King Chamber . Why are the shafts sealed? Orion belt . Cosmic journey through shafts . Hieroglyph in Great Pyramid . Giza . Giza plateau . Great Pyramid of Giza . Sirius alignment . Sirius theory . Atlantis is Egypt . End of civilization . Civilization collapse . Great famines . </span><span style="font-size: xx-small;"> </span><span style="font-size: xx-small;"> Who built the Great Pyramid of Giza and why? Pyramids of Giza . Great Pyramid of Giza . Latest discovery Great Pyramid of Giza . Great Pyramid of Giza facts . How long did it take to build great Pyramid of Giza . When was the Great Pyramid of Giza built? Pyramids of Giza . </span></span>EH2Rhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15138541663354420708noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1163623182638963042.post-91366701823572096092023-03-12T15:59:00.008-05:002023-03-17T10:58:27.407-05:00Kennedy Channel the new super highway of broken sea ice, absent Nares Strait long existing circular frozen floe edge let alone a very important ecological ice bridge<p>~Nares Strait circular floe edge stemming from solid steady sea ice use to form earlier than November, can't see it now during the coldest of winter</p><p>~A very ancient once, very important for wildlife and people, steady ice bridge does not seem to form as well </p><p> December 1988 , the very noticeable circular floe edge between Northeast Ellesmere and Northwest 'Greenland in Nares Strait, Kennedy Channel is Southwards the flow of sea water goes towards Kane Basin:</p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh2OCqpmy6fiysoZdWQRkseR-lVyQRXNGYhrGHkwlmhcHNlsLWbfs9BxRMpZjrez9KCWeoV1kfj9gVZo48nYh9jgU-VKG5P5eQo4rcYz07RtH_Y-Mi9QDRmn4mzE1MGNwUb19bJI4W7Dgr1F-vzTPwyc7hXSRsiMek48a1XvrYC-cIqzoOuMVv2A4be/s3401/a.JPG" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="3401" data-original-width="2923" height="640" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh2OCqpmy6fiysoZdWQRkseR-lVyQRXNGYhrGHkwlmhcHNlsLWbfs9BxRMpZjrez9KCWeoV1kfj9gVZo48nYh9jgU-VKG5P5eQo4rcYz07RtH_Y-Mi9QDRmn4mzE1MGNwUb19bJI4W7Dgr1F-vzTPwyc7hXSRsiMek48a1XvrYC-cIqzoOuMVv2A4be/w550-h640/a.JPG" width="550" /></a></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"> 1988 December 8, notice the ice bridge just here -------^^^^, it was the traditional crossing point for Inuit spanning centuries. Who did cross the last time from memory in the 90's. Was nice to have visitors from Qaanaaq Greenland cross over, and even an adventurous Canadian from Ellesmere for a visit to Greenland. A wildlife critical crossing point. If it exists now a days.... its been so long since I have seen it, I almost forgot it, I doubt it does exist, but if it forms, it lasts a far shorter time span than prior to 25 years ago. </div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"> </div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><span style="text-align: left;"> In 1850, famous in the Arctic</span><b style="text-align: left;"><a href="https://www.thecanadianencyclopedia.ca/en/article/qitdlarssuaq" target="_blank"> Qitdlarssuaq</a> , </b><span style="text-align: left;"> Qillajuaq, the Inuk shaman from North Baffin Island,</span><b style="text-align: left;"> </b><span style="text-align: left;"> mainly the Pond Inlet area, crossed the ice bridge, not once but at least twice. with many followers, Canadian Inuit re-introduced the kayak along with other top notch Inuit technologies to local Greenlandic Inuit. The trek was legendary, </span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjfQAhYOpIVEgky0_Vff2JHQWxdf9triC_2MuzwbXLBvKVA_fiNdQe3KPpYxEugE0dZ7cTHgmm7D_3TkWdNayFxXtdsczJmCp2xe89Vbi478PrNwVX0oMdYLI6IQrEx6XOwcsv4eZLHToy3spmqtcr5DRmDrwBctK7EWcTbkjrJGm8UPriaNhDmGPFv/s2933/b.JPG" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="2933" data-original-width="1945" height="640" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjfQAhYOpIVEgky0_Vff2JHQWxdf9triC_2MuzwbXLBvKVA_fiNdQe3KPpYxEugE0dZ7cTHgmm7D_3TkWdNayFxXtdsczJmCp2xe89Vbi478PrNwVX0oMdYLI6IQrEx6XOwcsv4eZLHToy3spmqtcr5DRmDrwBctK7EWcTbkjrJGm8UPriaNhDmGPFv/w424-h640/b.JPG" width="424" /></a></div> [same photo zoomed] Back to the ring of circular floe edges, it was essentially caused by the <div>flow of sea water, broken by tides and current. The ice surrounding it was similar to fast ice, not moving, and thick, a large ice shelf spanning from Ellesmere to Greenland, totally blocking pack ice from the Arctic Basin to escape South. </div><div><br /></div><div><br /></div><div> Now look at this:</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjETMu8VA2eetjGPiwkHB7AJDcmAZw6ht84qen8Ht3Bt3Y9HepdmjxkaymcsAA86fnW7V_0Fuvfgrb_xeN1FXwRAuUHDA-oHoFqL19hfZtl4-wRx8aZElcEli2CKDQgPb3r-aHobDbpYvNi52WMOUtorbfWdGLexHsLu_UdVQSODFAzYOtsbY0x2zND/s968/a1.gif" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="752" data-original-width="968" height="498" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjETMu8VA2eetjGPiwkHB7AJDcmAZw6ht84qen8Ht3Bt3Y9HepdmjxkaymcsAA86fnW7V_0Fuvfgrb_xeN1FXwRAuUHDA-oHoFqL19hfZtl4-wRx8aZElcEli2CKDQgPb3r-aHobDbpYvNi52WMOUtorbfWdGLexHsLu_UdVQSODFAzYOtsbY0x2zND/w640-h498/a1.gif" width="640" /></a></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><br /></div> Polarview January 17 to March 6 2023, at coldest winter minimum temperatures, as if the circular ringed floe edge never existed. <div><br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiWgweunZrXXO9X6d6HlMaTJf6JNnHUWxnpdFpEhBK1N526-MANFzvJ8VBmlhx9_D1b3F3pbhi0xBkgNRxF5JIC-In8zyjhaDSjkjBwgqIxc7d6dcVK7zW0xWOYWr5-MAX387LeViVZsw0EyFguXltmBBQwFqGrGL033fzmXHn_bDAWWG0LAKhcU0fF/s1110/b2.gif" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="768" data-original-width="1110" height="442" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiWgweunZrXXO9X6d6HlMaTJf6JNnHUWxnpdFpEhBK1N526-MANFzvJ8VBmlhx9_D1b3F3pbhi0xBkgNRxF5JIC-In8zyjhaDSjkjBwgqIxc7d6dcVK7zW0xWOYWr5-MAX387LeViVZsw0EyFguXltmBBQwFqGrGL033fzmXHn_bDAWWG0LAKhcU0fF/w640-h442/b2.gif" width="640" /></a></div><br /><div>February 28 to March 4 2023, sea ice is hemorrhaging Southwards, the once circular floe edge merely demonstrated how thick and consolidated sea ice was, It's in transition towards extinction, causing</div><div>reverberations throughout the Arctic. </div><div><br /></div><div>OK further astounding proof:</div><div><br /></div><div><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhuHGES_ywSegkNKaZ_XHCh1TbCGVWjYuLxB1IwwQYuXUSjHVpGy3QgPSITh0vtiuQ7EESjtuJPq_HcXkYS8HNWVzLn1oQo_U-Kj_ZYGwwdX1q26KQMvsy6SNhJim7ZJWDk14VdHVdZXglM1XEVD6FAiSJZbLJe-fC0vpL-4dLQOb4hkQFsU7Tk3w58/s4000/d.JPG" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="3000" data-original-width="4000" height="480" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhuHGES_ywSegkNKaZ_XHCh1TbCGVWjYuLxB1IwwQYuXUSjHVpGy3QgPSITh0vtiuQ7EESjtuJPq_HcXkYS8HNWVzLn1oQo_U-Kj_ZYGwwdX1q26KQMvsy6SNhJim7ZJWDk14VdHVdZXglM1XEVD6FAiSJZbLJe-fC0vpL-4dLQOb4hkQFsU7Tk3w58/w640-h480/d.JPG" width="640" /></a><span style="text-align: left;"> </span><span style="text-align: left;"> November 14 1988</span></div><div><br /></div><div><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjAFJLA-IQOZHzw1om5i2yxNLnPRNkdVWv0DKlkvLse4xiDt0n9gBb996bafdk2bVHxclClN4GFYn-3ZpJuQ5PD62vJ9pq8k3LBrjVNXbFk8wtTQRW_8Mr-CS_-oxI0Sr2iAod4rmyC8fbnc46LdgZecPoKET0KO7F9P2tzgB5csvRPJ4qz-u3ciDwS/s4000/c.JPG" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="3000" data-original-width="4000" height="480" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjAFJLA-IQOZHzw1om5i2yxNLnPRNkdVWv0DKlkvLse4xiDt0n9gBb996bafdk2bVHxclClN4GFYn-3ZpJuQ5PD62vJ9pq8k3LBrjVNXbFk8wtTQRW_8Mr-CS_-oxI0Sr2iAod4rmyC8fbnc46LdgZecPoKET0KO7F9P2tzgB5csvRPJ4qz-u3ciDwS/w640-h480/c.JPG" width="640" /></a></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">November 07 1988</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><span style="text-align: left;"> </span></div></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiNkvhQlIBgh6BltlVZxiiQvAXKtyXaOr2P2ibptgpcH5NKMyjq1U7f6wf9-Abbj7lZUX7j9J83LYozWCEzQSNH--2fAGG49SFNkqKzU7UKmQKaTJk5dTSv_xVzgEKktbY4MpYaKLYbNHJEqtKndrEaBlBA7V-hTyQ8Sex4-BSbEvvjJdluCZ9tc5jV/s4000/f.JPG" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="3000" data-original-width="4000" height="480" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiNkvhQlIBgh6BltlVZxiiQvAXKtyXaOr2P2ibptgpcH5NKMyjq1U7f6wf9-Abbj7lZUX7j9J83LYozWCEzQSNH--2fAGG49SFNkqKzU7UKmQKaTJk5dTSv_xVzgEKktbY4MpYaKLYbNHJEqtKndrEaBlBA7V-hTyQ8Sex4-BSbEvvjJdluCZ9tc5jV/w640-h480/f.JPG" width="640" /></a></div><div>July 22 1988 , Kane Basin fast ice bridge,. Fast ice is frozen ice from open water attaching to land, from 1987-88 winter past, surviving in July!</div><div><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgzmyOJ00LNgJOswvaeVA6FukYNDmRDmvzB09bORIK-ZcVXqqG8cSJJIUxvKM0QuWEW_8v5nrl7MmV2q8-YZBfwZs6qkj9dgbg4cGY-_evxxICZzW0soIU-9U1p9nIGySlRUWy8pXtPExqcxYb_92pzde1KL1guZ4TN_0tTkZMCAMea923BCG_Px6dq/s4000/g.JPG" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="3000" data-original-width="4000" height="480" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgzmyOJ00LNgJOswvaeVA6FukYNDmRDmvzB09bORIK-ZcVXqqG8cSJJIUxvKM0QuWEW_8v5nrl7MmV2q8-YZBfwZs6qkj9dgbg4cGY-_evxxICZzW0soIU-9U1p9nIGySlRUWy8pXtPExqcxYb_92pzde1KL1guZ4TN_0tTkZMCAMea923BCG_Px6dq/w640-h480/g.JPG" width="640" /></a></div><div> July 17 1988, no longer Nares Strait rings but an open floe edge surrounded by steady sea ice </div><div><br /></div><div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi9Di-C2miTRuMtoegzJ_97efmLnpxWOZjkO0RRxA4aJt9OU4e9860lhywkaD3GqgTvy1s5QdeBon69UtZ9nGyG9Owx_wOxYHY3j_DsK9g3mBKva9xO-_AjronbX-kfi1oxfn46My-QsAUxCCgE_tGnwrAsPjxQIVMekXx-4IwzVGLW8uxR89E2RSu0/s4000/e.JPG" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="3000" data-original-width="4000" height="480" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi9Di-C2miTRuMtoegzJ_97efmLnpxWOZjkO0RRxA4aJt9OU4e9860lhywkaD3GqgTvy1s5QdeBon69UtZ9nGyG9Owx_wOxYHY3j_DsK9g3mBKva9xO-_AjronbX-kfi1oxfn46My-QsAUxCCgE_tGnwrAsPjxQIVMekXx-4IwzVGLW8uxR89E2RSu0/w640-h480/e.JPG" width="640" /></a></div><div style="text-align: left;"> July 11 1988, Kane Basin fast ice ice is not pack ice yet. </div><div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><br /></div> How much this world has changed!</div><div><br /></div><div> WD March 12-13 2023</div><div><p><br /></p></div></div>EH2Rhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15138541663354420708noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1163623182638963042.post-28334299765747274272023-01-02T21:45:00.002-06:002023-01-02T23:15:11.012-06:00Ultra precise long range temperature forecasts, Possible, likely only with 360 degree thermally balanced observation sites. <p> ~The focus on improving Global Circulation Models need be twinned with perfecting observation sites. </p><p> ~Near refraction observations have basically demonstrated wide variations in thermal profiles within 3 km radius from station center. </p><p>~ These variations are caused by local, natural or not, variable thermal topography easily causing wider surface temperature variances, making longer ranging predictions almost impossible at unbalanced sites.</p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhMhSZdz83MD6x0_TLKlSn4JcSg8hEDFlqSGy2B1favbGYtDzIqQza0dlA4g74itt3g1OadgviUrOgol_e6TrNk58tAS_8WUDp4RDRGy5cSzS2mcod0EXc9T9TmE_7fvJ8u3-c2gpPAhgdltPk9k7vbIVfDoLr0lKr2zL8bjVhrk1R94kZpBes-lQP_/s1169/Screenshot%202023.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="897" data-original-width="1169" height="492" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhMhSZdz83MD6x0_TLKlSn4JcSg8hEDFlqSGy2B1favbGYtDzIqQza0dlA4g74itt3g1OadgviUrOgol_e6TrNk58tAS_8WUDp4RDRGy5cSzS2mcod0EXc9T9TmE_7fvJ8u3-c2gpPAhgdltPk9k7vbIVfDoLr0lKr2zL8bjVhrk1R94kZpBes-lQP_/w640-h492/Screenshot%202023.png" width="640" /></a></div> Well known for failing often 6 to 10 day NOAA temperature forecast predictions, no need to add longer range in a few months or so *Climate projections , they are worse. It is likely not the models fault, but rather the observation site measurements greatly prone for chaotic changes by very local effects. <div><br /></div><div> Many years local near refraction measurements never made much sense, here in Southwestern Cornwallis Island Canada, they rarely match optical refraction theory. A demonstration can be made on request. However finally, after careful analysis , they match infrequently. This is because Cornwallis Island Nunavut is surrounded by 4 different Straits, having 4 different ice fields or depending on the season, daily changing open water configurations. The topography is also mixed, from plateau 200 meter above sea level, higher to where the observation site is, 46 meters ASL, next to adjoining sea level gravel beaches some 3 km away. </div><div><br /></div><div> This means that locally funneled winds may carry greater influence by either of the said sea Straits , or these same winds may be curbed in mesoscale eddies, not at all having identical thermal nature as direct winds coming from a larger circulation macro scale. Therefore it turns out that optical near refraction data, as explained by measured lapse rates, or by any given day modeled temperature profile, almost never match theory. Or does so by an incredible, about less than 10% of the time (more precise data forthcoming). In other words, this observation Cornwallis site in question, is very poor in representing the major temperature event of the moment. </div><div><br /></div><div> I have no doubt, thousands of observation sites used for models all over the world, give identical results. </div><div><br /></div><div> It is therefore not wise to use thermally imbalanced weather station sites, for determining model accuracy, but rather the focus should be on comparing model forecasts at sites which have no local thermal perturbations baked in their topography. </div><div><br /></div><div> The best sites would be: A buoy in the middle of the Atlantic, or a large lake, a station in the middle of a flat prairie without any major thermal altering sources, something at a great distance away from a chaotic interfering geographical or fauna feature capable of changing the local thermal weather pattern. In the Arctic, such sites are possible, not common, however there is always a lake, a river or a mountain about, temperature variances may easily change a few hundred meters away. </div><div><br /></div><div> Wherever possible, identifying thermally balanced stations may help elucidate the real precision of weather models, I expect them to be very good, but trying to match temperature predictions with thermally unbalanced sites would be more ideal, only after determining the models precision capacity with observation locations as thermally balanced as possible. I wont be surprised if the 6 to 10 day temperature forecasts are much more precise at such measuring points. WD January 2, 2023</div><div><br /></div><div> </div><div> <br /><p><br /></p><p> </p></div>EH2Rhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15138541663354420708noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1163623182638963042.post-19203526896459881972022-11-13T19:24:00.001-06:002022-11-13T19:24:46.344-06:00Ice on Mars equator, rather permafrost is everywhere on the red planet, Eh2r success story, bad news for another theory though. <p> ~First suggested here 8 years ago, permafrost was detectable without drilling on Mars. </p><p> On BBC recent report you can see meteorite crater confirm ice below ground:</p><p>https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mg95vY10WSo</p><p>of a news article already almost a year old:</p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgnXD0fDcC6XTxLcNmEQgd7DJtD9Nq856GJpi3Xkh_jIjAbI8k5c_DR1a682DyWXB6kO5wiKhj7sdgIq2haRCGedyz9N8Gm0C2cOaKTSP5msGC3AdTurDXygwzfOHWu1ild3Ep0Mbe4Bok_yS0LPQOSduW0EdL6hgdq-abKd_uZid9nYJX0yZFX7PaE/s600/Nov-13-2022m.gif" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="344" data-original-width="600" height="366" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgnXD0fDcC6XTxLcNmEQgd7DJtD9Nq856GJpi3Xkh_jIjAbI8k5c_DR1a682DyWXB6kO5wiKhj7sdgIq2haRCGedyz9N8Gm0C2cOaKTSP5msGC3AdTurDXygwzfOHWu1ild3Ep0Mbe4Bok_yS0LPQOSduW0EdL6hgdq-abKd_uZid9nYJX0yZFX7PaE/w640-h366/Nov-13-2022m.gif" width="640" /></a><span style="text-align: left;">https://www.nytimes.com/2022/10/27/science/mars-meteorites-impacts-seismic.html</span></div><p><br /></p><p> ..... only confirms what EH2r research has discovered years ago:</p><p>https://eh2r.blogspot.com/2018/12/mars-insight-landing-spot-suggests-not.html</p><p>and here some 8 years ago:</p><p>https://eh2r.blogspot.com/2015/04/how-to-find-underground-frozen-water-on_25.html </p><p> It is gratifying to realize that no digging was needed by humans, Mars surface is unlivable, but by just watching, observing, something we refraction researchers do all the time. </p><p> Refraction studies do overlap or very closely resemble space time studies. Of which Dark Matter or Dark Energy, has a huge observation problem, we don't see any hint of this huge content of theoretical mass. Of which gravitational lensing, ably explained by Einstein equations, was confirmed by a solar eclipse. Dark matter and energy has no such equivalent. Consider all the trillion stars covering our sky, the very minute exact position they maintain, never changing position in the slightest, despite the observer, ie any telescope on earth or in space, constantly moving through space. Many stars should be slightly moving ever so now and then, given the massive presence of Dark Matter. </p><p> In light of this EH2r Mars successful permafrost observation confirmation, and the power and dominance of -observing- in science, I don't give much time for the Dark Matter and Energy theories not to be considered plausible in the very least.....WD November 13, 2022. </p><p><br /></p><p><br /></p>EH2Rhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15138541663354420708noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1163623182638963042.post-17819608765569009282022-09-03T21:35:00.003-05:002022-09-03T21:35:57.645-05:00Major shift in Sea Ocean Warming affecting everything<p> </p><p> ~Extreme warning of North Atlantic and Pacific part of, or cause of , or part & cause of worldwide major climate shifts.</p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;">~ With some positive effects, in part saving Arctic sea ice from utter decimation from the clouds they create.</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;">~While negative consequences are documented in nearly daily extraordinary weather catastrophes</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><br /></div><p></p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiOT62GWFWNXM3pZ8axoBj1u3Roc_wTD54eDoLdVzmtnyYU92KCcRCJwSPjnhG9tILU28B_8Fn7-XrGxIjVM8PoLrrAJgBURM4xjTQbPTk4cuCedrI1SM-r0lP_vfD33W_A3_vvShGpi5bI36MWdKISnbV3IIPRXjpqSgPgA6c8QjDdfgRRC5Xg3Pdq/s1787/ssta.daily.current.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1085" data-original-width="1787" height="388" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiOT62GWFWNXM3pZ8axoBj1u3Roc_wTD54eDoLdVzmtnyYU92KCcRCJwSPjnhG9tILU28B_8Fn7-XrGxIjVM8PoLrrAJgBURM4xjTQbPTk4cuCedrI1SM-r0lP_vfD33W_A3_vvShGpi5bI36MWdKISnbV3IIPRXjpqSgPgA6c8QjDdfgRRC5Xg3Pdq/w640-h388/ssta.daily.current.png" width="640" /></a></div> I believe that this recent NOAA sst anomaly map explains it all. A powerful La-Nina has had a hard time forming, Arctic sea ice has had a hard time melting more as it should and the major pressure position patterns of global circulation, all got flummoxed, thrown out the comprehension window, because we are now literally in a new climate age. The one with near permanent warmer ocean regions. As expected by EH2r projection, Arctic sea ice melt was greater than last year, but nowhere near 2012 all time low extent minima. As expected the AI weather outlooks came through, nice for a change, except for more rain in some regions, this can be easily explained by warmer ocean sea surface temperatures, not so easy to describe their location causations, near permanent hot zones, in the past usually with greater degree of variances:<p></p><p><br /></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgNsj3Rla-arj0axuqZJyHzrqFIew4R7mEr28NK4LUFZVBNywpkFzeqw1Gpg8A0vFhvzcaUdOH5Ui_gUVXi-w0s5YCJpdiXoMYfidiJ1YT51-zpg2QO5CBsVbQOBUefCtPnzZ7Nos624uBI6IelY1qCTESX4-iQKbh9EoCe53mi8gFONgQldPeHI-uc/s679/Image.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="350" data-original-width="679" height="330" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgNsj3Rla-arj0axuqZJyHzrqFIew4R7mEr28NK4LUFZVBNywpkFzeqw1Gpg8A0vFhvzcaUdOH5Ui_gUVXi-w0s5YCJpdiXoMYfidiJ1YT51-zpg2QO5CBsVbQOBUefCtPnzZ7Nos624uBI6IelY1qCTESX4-iQKbh9EoCe53mi8gFONgQldPeHI-uc/w640-h330/Image.png" width="640" /></a></div> We remember variation of sea surface temperatures still during a recent warming time, but in retrospect, even in 2013 the emplacements of near permanent warming ocean regions were starting to be in place. <div><br /></div><div> So now, we must consider the new world weather order, in the recent past, so much often eagerly denied by climate skeptics, surely presently not eating humble pie, face saved by being in this age of many people choosing whom to believe, rather than deciding or trying to find out what is really going on. The images such as above, need no rocket scientists to explain. WD September 3, 2022<br /><p><br /></p><p> </p></div>EH2Rhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15138541663354420708noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1163623182638963042.post-60354867202398299892022-06-26T11:09:00.000-05:002022-06-26T11:09:53.983-05:00STABLE; why the Cold Temperature North Pole matters<p> ~At any given day of the year the CTNP is the prime circulation mover</p><p>~Where all weather systems spins around it</p><p>~When it is weak, hardly anything moves</p><p>~This highlights the importance of Arctic sea ice, the world would be dramatically different without it.</p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgHkFUIlVCqAPFVTjpsv1p6kDJ7l0hvfzGay_3zAmV9Zfmr-_AjmjdxmmhLB5qL_RD-KBAGfg-0e76dZyHRxhlQLs3YrPoJzGkHP9xZqrEXDNwuKhIl7van8TywDf1_H1Kq0GOZ_goBVh2MJDD0JI4yf8Ub1dFKAGPut3SgRXtg9ysVD-67HBFE_CFb/s598/Jun-25%2026-2022.gif" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="400" data-original-width="598" height="428" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgHkFUIlVCqAPFVTjpsv1p6kDJ7l0hvfzGay_3zAmV9Zfmr-_AjmjdxmmhLB5qL_RD-KBAGfg-0e76dZyHRxhlQLs3YrPoJzGkHP9xZqrEXDNwuKhIl7van8TywDf1_H1Kq0GOZ_goBVh2MJDD0JI4yf8Ub1dFKAGPut3SgRXtg9ysVD-67HBFE_CFb/w640-h428/Jun-25%2026-2022.gif" width="640" /></a></div>Look carefully at GOES 16 IR system movements, over Cuba and Gulf of Mexico the weather seems steady for a period of 2 days, however over Hudson Bay the weather systems move a little more consistently Eastwards. The further away from the CTNP the slower the circulation, therefore this weather, as forecasted beginning of May here on EH2r, has come through as expected.<div><br /></div><div> Of which June 26 center of coldest air in the world is :</div><div><br /></div><div><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgvq65Ids_Z6zzugSpcuARlkcrcy_Fmb5IkzG3qYy8KpYLFZcB9-G-GH4PLu3vULaaSCC-_GhvcxZejqaxm2Q0F6BS7pDRRSym9JHQbxeA8IMglgMTpTuB1LSwtYE0QyZpvCoQ5sinmefm5tL1x44S3T7GTpR1a5dbj6YT12JvB1n8r8xZfBlhL26Xv/s765/2022-06-26.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="499" data-original-width="765" height="418" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgvq65Ids_Z6zzugSpcuARlkcrcy_Fmb5IkzG3qYy8KpYLFZcB9-G-GH4PLu3vULaaSCC-_GhvcxZejqaxm2Q0F6BS7pDRRSym9JHQbxeA8IMglgMTpTuB1LSwtYE0QyZpvCoQ5sinmefm5tL1x44S3T7GTpR1a5dbj6YT12JvB1n8r8xZfBlhL26Xv/w640-h418/2022-06-26.png" width="640" /></a></div><br /><div>In the SE quadrant of Russia side of the North Pole, as far from Florida as it gets, this center wobbles</div><div>like a top on top of the world. Influencing a temperature differential of far lesser importance than during winter, 30 Centigrade less important while during winter this surface temperature difference is in excess of 60 C. The weather systems slow move during summers, giving either greater droughts or floods wherever the systems stagnate. Absent sea ice the situation will be very much more severe, Therefore a New World Weather order is rising, not on Earth in millions of years, when nothing much will move during summer, causing the most severe extreme weather most humans may not desire. So far sea ice is on schedule to be even less prominent, slowly , summer by every next summer, with the known consequences experienced all over the world. WD June 26 2021</div><div><br /><p><br /></p></div>EH2Rhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15138541663354420708noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1163623182638963042.post-4996651730115047202022-06-12T12:09:00.001-05:002022-06-12T12:09:31.022-05:00Arctic Basin switchover time , about to happen very much on schedule<p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><span style="text-align: left;">~Sea ice melt pond data is scarce, but from long presence of Gyre Anticyclone it is assumed that there are many</span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;">~The effects of about to disappear circulation will be compounded by the effects of the coming one</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;">CMC June 12 12 UTC surface prog:</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjV7oCBSKFlKdusa-wbAsg2jjcbZp_pzCkHUEWrnjnXqA6RPdu1rfvrPcr4ruKbvwvxtjdvB7JuxWAdETzFAhCaHo2zaRMnV6iktMUHaxCjEpOGK1VeWftN2i01aitFAbvkOPBhS0e5J7_3_rsSV63avmt9lZSp98RIgIUvj7uCfHWjBYY2ziPzIIX_/s998/20220612%20surface%2006%20UTC.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="519" data-original-width="998" height="332" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjV7oCBSKFlKdusa-wbAsg2jjcbZp_pzCkHUEWrnjnXqA6RPdu1rfvrPcr4ruKbvwvxtjdvB7JuxWAdETzFAhCaHo2zaRMnV6iktMUHaxCjEpOGK1VeWftN2i01aitFAbvkOPBhS0e5J7_3_rsSV63avmt9lZSp98RIgIUvj7uCfHWjBYY2ziPzIIX_/w640-h332/20220612%20surface%2006%20UTC.png" width="640" /></a></div><br /> The sliding of the North Pole cyclone to the Arctic Basin Gyre location seems apt to be more permanent. <p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgPLv5RJGVfoAEHHRFAGB8JHuqc56KnsliGeKb6xOIONzHxu7vQ2uVS6TIjCUaZOa8F7_EYYiO1ZBubNk6Y3QaBycqj5eyiu74BLrAu-plawSfqiQ8qeSjGPtAQzlmRLrGU1TJ6UR4gOGSOolXEeWDaOpjHn0nJB0XBwOmI6sc5nPzAGN_Jnd7oEFDe/s1040/2022-06-12%20a%20700%20mb.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="496" data-original-width="1040" height="306" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgPLv5RJGVfoAEHHRFAGB8JHuqc56KnsliGeKb6xOIONzHxu7vQ2uVS6TIjCUaZOa8F7_EYYiO1ZBubNk6Y3QaBycqj5eyiu74BLrAu-plawSfqiQ8qeSjGPtAQzlmRLrGU1TJ6UR4gOGSOolXEeWDaOpjHn0nJB0XBwOmI6sc5nPzAGN_Jnd7oEFDe/w640-h306/2022-06-12%20a%20700%20mb.png" width="640" /></a></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">The repositioning of the CTNP's poised to be at the Pole except for North Alaska, which will get a North Pole Upper Air flow, all indicate a near permanent Cold Temperature North Pole at the North Pole... </div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">Melt Ponds are a key factor determining the extent of melt damage done to sea ice early on the melt season. They are hard to detect, but this can be done indirectly:</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgs3BRQS19b1ZWoY4CtVQlfmE0STJTWf9FR0Gj4xoZdLl1fK2EmkqH2WXMVwykWcG8LG1QeBDaQxSt1V-x1W0cJTtmpSbj2Mda6GQ7CCDMPobXFDOdl9TGWmqpqONCZ7iLH11ZEsFa_-yK4ONSLVZeyppAiaSdzGeD7AYbncUSm9kSQwb8T1Hc1anf9/s256/AMSR2.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="218" data-original-width="256" height="545" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgs3BRQS19b1ZWoY4CtVQlfmE0STJTWf9FR0Gj4xoZdLl1fK2EmkqH2WXMVwykWcG8LG1QeBDaQxSt1V-x1W0cJTtmpSbj2Mda6GQ7CCDMPobXFDOdl9TGWmqpqONCZ7iLH11ZEsFa_-yK4ONSLVZeyppAiaSdzGeD7AYbncUSm9kSQwb8T1Hc1anf9/w640-h545/AMSR2.png" width="640" /></a></div> The black spots on on JAXA/ Bremen AMSR2 have likely melt ponds. especially twinned with snow depth:<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi_3CGqV3TlmWFpVSeOxQeJiuPWQ2rF_kKYrIoJWoaONV4zoeOnGOCErOUUSD8pbeOP96X9Qz0Pyw0QXe2n9AxDMQJ4RAmvz12L3cP2bWmrqqMJ_X79byyalcB1Eox4m3S51BuILBxXRZdkiBmIGtZVgWvgpyQqFWB_PVtRaZyUR0smOPusvhJ4sWIo/s509/snow%20depth.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="417" data-original-width="509" height="524" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi_3CGqV3TlmWFpVSeOxQeJiuPWQ2rF_kKYrIoJWoaONV4zoeOnGOCErOUUSD8pbeOP96X9Qz0Pyw0QXe2n9AxDMQJ4RAmvz12L3cP2bWmrqqMJ_X79byyalcB1Eox4m3S51BuILBxXRZdkiBmIGtZVgWvgpyQqFWB_PVtRaZyUR0smOPusvhJ4sWIo/w640-h524/snow%20depth.png" width="640" /></a></div>June 12 Climate Reanalyzer snow depth seems to infer melt ponds pretty much along the coasts devoid of snow. Although radar PV photos are more nebulous:<div><br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgTpdMVm492sX11zLP7SmBdRrShOwPwxzmm6RrJFQmNQVoi_zYsmSEoJg0mSM-zFO2gvSnxu5YjWVwBKPm9LxKCmslLMhYlt8HFoXgkQrU_R67lO5iAWFAXZb3kFTBKNpVa1xehnIXhC7ANxzJ4uyGbtp0x9JvYDv41vt46pExV3qNEFwM_2rnPDodq/s270/North%20Inuvik.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="244" data-original-width="270" height="578" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgTpdMVm492sX11zLP7SmBdRrShOwPwxzmm6RrJFQmNQVoi_zYsmSEoJg0mSM-zFO2gvSnxu5YjWVwBKPm9LxKCmslLMhYlt8HFoXgkQrU_R67lO5iAWFAXZb3kFTBKNpVa1xehnIXhC7ANxzJ4uyGbtp0x9JvYDv41vt46pExV3qNEFwM_2rnPDodq/w640-h578/North%20Inuvik.png" width="640" /></a></div><br /><div>June 10 North of Inuvik Beaufort sea nebulous cloud haze like image seem to indicate wide area of melt ponds.</div><div><br /></div><div> As far as sea ice is concerned, the Low pressure over Arctic Ocean Gyre will shape the over all sea ice melt picture pretty much as I expect, however slow sea ice extent seems to vanish is an illusion of sorts, the damage from the long presence of anticyclone allowing more sunshine was done, any further massive storm will bring out near future fissures and exacerbate the melt process further especially late July. WD June 12, 2022</div><div><br /></div><div><br /><div><br /><div><br /></div><div><br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><br /></div><br /><p><br /></p></div></div></div></div>EH2Rhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15138541663354420708noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1163623182638963042.post-5340994768335271062022-06-02T21:31:00.004-05:002022-06-02T21:37:48.943-05:00Rogue Vortice special Real effects<p> ~As the pressure switchover looms, the Polar Vortex fades in grandeur</p><p>~But as such many Rogue Vortices are created</p><p>~One May 31 Rogue gave some special effects</p><br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhoMR0TzLIlRBfMxBmxoEQavlNhOaVEGsEUQXA910rs9WGsSaUf_A5aHew7YO-N3J3EHNCiLki3gIy2kCVuSd1NIp6XWSFOO5Sm3mkURortsBIS8Xtpt4L5uwewVcSMlZ8osOLg2aoKzHWrZMUa0Z6QJD4r-hvIAWUEdZ-uc2Zhh5LUi1_LXoinHAAP/s890/May-31-2022.gif" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="498" data-original-width="890" height="358" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhoMR0TzLIlRBfMxBmxoEQavlNhOaVEGsEUQXA910rs9WGsSaUf_A5aHew7YO-N3J3EHNCiLki3gIy2kCVuSd1NIp6XWSFOO5Sm3mkURortsBIS8Xtpt4L5uwewVcSMlZ8osOLg2aoKzHWrZMUa0Z6QJD4r-hvIAWUEdZ-uc2Zhh5LUi1_LXoinHAAP/w640-h358/May-31-2022.gif" width="640" /></a></div>A Typical GOES satellite Infra Red picture loop, May 31 2022 look at the center cloud circulation, towards the South East, nothing much to look at. Until you look at the surface prog, turns out the clouds are turning the wrong way:<div><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjJOSBL-OxE8zF06HdDgB2R2sXUG18kiLjZyDfNKr5LsRksNVrUWRoi9-jDkZ92QXIIQ51ZKNs-sgajxQ-Wd09HsQjkEcDkmp8nSxEk2DqlzpUEwXxkWpkOU8-FXjbsr4EY4pDIJSHGhH6fm6yrmf1uDjsJZ9hJGfEoMeVTR28Z8zk22diL3XkZGvZM/s2640/May31sa1200.gif" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="2100" data-original-width="2640" height="510" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjJOSBL-OxE8zF06HdDgB2R2sXUG18kiLjZyDfNKr5LsRksNVrUWRoi9-jDkZ92QXIIQ51ZKNs-sgajxQ-Wd09HsQjkEcDkmp8nSxEk2DqlzpUEwXxkWpkOU8-FXjbsr4EY4pDIJSHGhH6fm6yrmf1uDjsJZ9hJGfEoMeVTR28Z8zk22diL3XkZGvZM/w640-h510/May31sa1200.gif" width="640" /></a></div>Red X marks the spot, the surface isobaric flow opposes the movement of clouds. But the culprit is a Rogue Vortice from the ever shrinking Polar Vortex:<div><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiz73GmKC9fqrC0QJu0Nl3U_7hRUjsfxbMAZ77zq5BrHLZ7sb5GtOHsX9ZHImaqDjlOkhKBLIa7C2aEGcDERTlvedt_xA7aH-CnMBsti5XuiiyRSiEv9-6PX63TvfJKsYipNot3oNvMpbJG_3KJe96mZ3nfAx1q7zJpxJ_mV63dIoT3KXPHL7BAkO_w/s1839/700%20mb%20Vortice.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1240" data-original-width="1839" height="432" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiz73GmKC9fqrC0QJu0Nl3U_7hRUjsfxbMAZ77zq5BrHLZ7sb5GtOHsX9ZHImaqDjlOkhKBLIa7C2aEGcDERTlvedt_xA7aH-CnMBsti5XuiiyRSiEv9-6PX63TvfJKsYipNot3oNvMpbJG_3KJe96mZ3nfAx1q7zJpxJ_mV63dIoT3KXPHL7BAkO_w/w640-h432/700%20mb%20Vortice.jpg" width="640" /></a></div>This Vortice is breaking away from the amorphous mangled Polar Vortex really centered in the Canadian Arctic Archipelago (CAA) , this Labrador Vortice at center is -10 C quite cold for this time of the year. Again from a sign that the North CAA Cold Temperature North Pole is not done yet:<div><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiRnqVN5HGG3G9-k65IGkhbaeyx_t3KmgEHZv1HmEE4pVJgFGxgTg0auvpEsOD91P5q9ibpUw0kITMHVT8IiwyMO42aFlrt54E6IkyLiwvD6pBqvlbZ3H6xWVqtRMZcP1vqfWd5Aco_Nb4731v8guP9qDUfy3N5dUlQ0arpd_qHjziOhy8nz9PhduV5/s706/2022-06-02%201200%20700%20mb.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="478" data-original-width="706" height="434" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiRnqVN5HGG3G9-k65IGkhbaeyx_t3KmgEHZv1HmEE4pVJgFGxgTg0auvpEsOD91P5q9ibpUw0kITMHVT8IiwyMO42aFlrt54E6IkyLiwvD6pBqvlbZ3H6xWVqtRMZcP1vqfWd5Aco_Nb4731v8guP9qDUfy3N5dUlQ0arpd_qHjziOhy8nz9PhduV5/w640-h434/2022-06-02%201200%20700%20mb.png" width="640" /></a></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><span style="text-align: left;">June 2 2022 700 mb -26 C over Cornwallis Island , quite cold CTNP, The switch over is not in yet, still on sched, because its so cold there, for about mid June. Note the -10 C Labrador Vortice gone, because Rogues don't last long but their effects give lasting memories. WD June 3 2022</span></div><div><div><div><br /><div><br /></div><div><br /><div><br /></div><div><br /></div><div><br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><br /></div><br /><div><br /><p><br /></p><p><br /></p><p><br /></p><p><br /></p><p><br /></p></div></div></div></div></div></div>EH2Rhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15138541663354420708noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1163623182638963042.post-10087456568596008872022-05-21T15:22:00.002-05:002022-05-21T15:22:53.083-05:00EH2r Projection bang on, Arctic Basin Pressure switchover appears to be late~Apparently not many are aware of this precision in predictions way in advance.<div>~But then again nobody uses the sun disk as a thermometer, hopefully in time this will change<br /><div>~Eh2r predictions from multiple observations is looking really good, in all aspects except for sea ice extent</div><div>~Nevertheless its exciting (for at least 30 followers) when a deep Arctic circulation system is understood, in essence Arctic temperatures dictate all weather movements Southwards </div></div><div><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjdfwzcplxuVjzaGS2RVAnEHqECAkf7_C3JTTCGxidIj8_YTkeO4LmUp0NjjCH-nx3pXM-OZ3LmqrrHFfKClzOn7ir3pWZrZb5FYJ_bj9iXldUelFH1wsdSdTlxTSdFVH4rHyWDiZr761D5TpYiq1cJfPLz6z2ZRN7Xh4kLk3dOxJh0Es3fhpCG0NxP/s698/MAY61820.gif" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="426" data-original-width="698" height="390" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjdfwzcplxuVjzaGS2RVAnEHqECAkf7_C3JTTCGxidIj8_YTkeO4LmUp0NjjCH-nx3pXM-OZ3LmqrrHFfKClzOn7ir3pWZrZb5FYJ_bj9iXldUelFH1wsdSdTlxTSdFVH4rHyWDiZr761D5TpYiq1cJfPLz6z2ZRN7Xh4kLk3dOxJh0Es3fhpCG0NxP/w640-h390/MAY61820.gif" width="640" /></a></div><br /><div>18 UTC CMC surface prog May 6 (1025 mb High over Arctic Ocean Basin), 18 and 20, 2022, look a likes. to this projected May 1:</div><div><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgcq_I9bIEweUp8Ye6QegQ8LHgTQ4SOi0ud8oQfuZbIOrKOeOmEsXiK7BiEnHuKtK2Hp5NSvnq1dyKtmGgFU8xG1Mc-VgVg09C9Pp3XOIZ_2UQwefLF2UdTAGVkIrSFlVfDQlr39KRFeRwha_lwQDuqxfdFbBV1UpjAqFjrTInFSNOk2H2bBcfCqfyU/s711/lookalike.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="516" data-original-width="711" height="464" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgcq_I9bIEweUp8Ye6QegQ8LHgTQ4SOi0ud8oQfuZbIOrKOeOmEsXiK7BiEnHuKtK2Hp5NSvnq1dyKtmGgFU8xG1Mc-VgVg09C9Pp3XOIZ_2UQwefLF2UdTAGVkIrSFlVfDQlr39KRFeRwha_lwQDuqxfdFbBV1UpjAqFjrTInFSNOk2H2bBcfCqfyU/w640-h464/lookalike.png" width="640" /></a></div><br /><div>Eerily similar isn't it? The main player is the giant C in purple, the Cold Temperature North Pole of the Polar Vortex. Is cold, but small, but really cold:</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEijDn0xMXnfmwx1wHvPCmbHow11JCM9nteHpR48Q59U5xW3KHsWGBtPKyj4C0R1BNzQJp40mwwaZE-O2yNeKK3Y1Pw2o_nwhgL2-4DlCtoZZZZQkv7PfXAH7HLJ0B_mc-rIal3y-b5Uk7K0TgiBYlUmeT10ppPdVEuzpOdF5FFMKi1Fb8C1ZL_aG-2A/s867/%202022-05-21%20700%20mb%20.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="492" data-original-width="867" height="364" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEijDn0xMXnfmwx1wHvPCmbHow11JCM9nteHpR48Q59U5xW3KHsWGBtPKyj4C0R1BNzQJp40mwwaZE-O2yNeKK3Y1Pw2o_nwhgL2-4DlCtoZZZZQkv7PfXAH7HLJ0B_mc-rIal3y-b5Uk7K0TgiBYlUmeT10ppPdVEuzpOdF5FFMKi1Fb8C1ZL_aG-2A/w640-h364/%202022-05-21%20700%20mb%20.png" width="640" /></a></div> CMC 700 mb May 21 at 1200 UTC, -30 C over Eureka, Ellesmere Island Canada, wow that is cold but covering a small area. However this fuels a stable surface High pressure over the Arctic basin, but soon, about mid June a dramatic pressure system switchover will occur, a Low pressure will replace the Arctic Basin High pressure, because, Eureka will be very warm! Last few years this projected switch came earlier. The present steady circulation picture, implies vaster areas of sea ice melt ponds, spelling doom for it, which seems to be fairing the usual bad, but not a terrible melt pace yet, again this will look much worse come late July, worser than last few years. Even if persistently cloudy, and so goes the sea ice non recovery, whereas climate is totally a key player. The unstoppable Arctic warming continues even during LaNina period, usually implying a cooling to take place, but foiled again by Greenhouse gases. WD May 21 2022<div><br /></div><div><br /><div><br /></div><div><br /></div><div><br /></div><div><br /></div></div>EH2Rhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15138541663354420708noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1163623182638963042.post-13626942797459784572022-05-02T12:03:00.002-05:002022-05-02T12:04:20.198-05:00Very rare coincidence? EH2r projection in sync with most models.<p> ~Sometimes AI gets it right</p><p>~EH2r projection just made in previous article really close to NOAA model even the Alaska bit</p><p><br /></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjVxxb_fYVN5dy8pdRp3hUE2jJtpDbWghKGr5i2kPGHwQnvsUCBRXdsUFBNQqTPE_4it42vMHMQWhvq1c_6myoBHsY1ih63z4vXicSP2yp1nxYw1mzHmqPIWNtD56XX63mp9HMdJtMiQy9yeYOjD74MXSCgpkfL_obFddg5fEI4WM_Hi43Mz7KENdCO/s685/a.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="680" data-original-width="685" height="318" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjVxxb_fYVN5dy8pdRp3hUE2jJtpDbWghKGr5i2kPGHwQnvsUCBRXdsUFBNQqTPE_4it42vMHMQWhvq1c_6myoBHsY1ih63z4vXicSP2yp1nxYw1mzHmqPIWNtD56XX63mp9HMdJtMiQy9yeYOjD74MXSCgpkfL_obFddg5fEI4WM_Hi43Mz7KENdCO/s320/a.png" width="320" /></a></div><br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><span style="text-align: left;"><br />NOAA June July August summer outlook, amazingly in sync with EH2r summer </span></div><div>projection, in essence a wet SE USA and very hot Western USA, along with little bit of Alaska. </div><div>If there is no significant seasonal Arctic summer of old, ie, a much warmer Arctic, there should be</div><div>very little circulation further South. This implies the US desert weather to expand, also with practically Synoptic transport of moisture from the Gulf of Mexico, alleviation of super heating by reason of cloud cover.</div><div><br /></div><div> But not is all perfect with mega computers:</div><div><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEixNtQvltSwjCQkr79TMxM1oLROH6U1--3-Yj-HLetov6yZ4I3tJdYjvnHqqe1W8HswX4mPmXFs89YHQKBhEFkf7RjRKTHIBpyxErxko0RTnAYi0GVI-Kr5R0bMxzSfH8LoE_Pjfa0DRLQXvulnelp8gRnXQLL2GZZZJecfHyL1H7FPq2TrzImgtoZN/s898/b.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="384" data-original-width="898" height="274" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEixNtQvltSwjCQkr79TMxM1oLROH6U1--3-Yj-HLetov6yZ4I3tJdYjvnHqqe1W8HswX4mPmXFs89YHQKBhEFkf7RjRKTHIBpyxErxko0RTnAYi0GVI-Kr5R0bMxzSfH8LoE_Pjfa0DRLQXvulnelp8gRnXQLL2GZZZJecfHyL1H7FPq2TrzImgtoZN/w640-h274/b.png" width="640" /></a></div><br /><div>This AER May forecast misses the recent CTNP , Cold Temperature North Pole hovering about the Canadian Arctic Archipelago and the one existing North of central Siberia, nothing is perfect for AI, almost human, but to contrast, human intuition trumps millions of calculations per second, almost every time. WD May 2 2022</div><div><br /></div><div><br /></div><div><br /></div><div><p><br /></p><p><br /></p></div>EH2Rhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15138541663354420708noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1163623182638963042.post-41513000366755253462022-05-01T04:51:00.009-05:002022-05-01T05:19:09.017-05:00Annual spring summer autumn circulation and weather projections deduced by mainly unorthodox means<p> ~Amazing unusual past winter observations, from beginning to end</p><p>~Wild variances in Arctic climate was the main feature</p><p>~LaNina so mild not important as much as ENSO trending warm or cold</p><p>~Unfamiliar sudden changes in Arctic weather patterns are rapidly becoming the norm</p><p><b style="font-size: large;"><br /></b></p><p><b style="font-size: large;"> The objective of this exercise is to see how much I understand weather dynamics in relation to geophysical observations lasting throughout the High Arctic autumn, the long night and spring. If I understand what happened well, I might have a very good idea what will become later. </b></p><p><span style="font-size: medium;"><b><br /></b></span></p><p><span style="font-size: medium;"><b>Prognosis</b></span></p><p> A rapid prognosis of past autumn and winter is essential, strangely ENSO pattern appears regular since summer 2020:</p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiBUYd-WETuFnmpCNnq7JyPOHfDW0BSFqOwA_SKgg4V92glzsgRTVb8wolriRkgeLxFw6vaStAuHm3DhSu7J7wfURPrBlTBVTh_XzrLLNJBxrMQBT6W4bs9R0m1wloX_jKPwvWtkntfqVeam5CopWZJ3my3SoMjYIoWl9CdjXrFqObB8MBXr-bFCxKr/s564/BOMENSO.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="477" data-original-width="564" height="542" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiBUYd-WETuFnmpCNnq7JyPOHfDW0BSFqOwA_SKgg4V92glzsgRTVb8wolriRkgeLxFw6vaStAuHm3DhSu7J7wfURPrBlTBVTh_XzrLLNJBxrMQBT6W4bs9R0m1wloX_jKPwvWtkntfqVeam5CopWZJ3my3SoMjYIoWl9CdjXrFqObB8MBXr-bFCxKr/w640-h542/BOMENSO.png" width="640" /></a></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">January 2021 mild La-Nina bottomed likewise January 2022, summer 21 was trending El-Nino but reversed course suddenly. While from its peak warmth ENSO trended La-Nina just as fast as previous warming. During that time in the Arctic , something very unusual happened, it was very warm and more cloudy . October 2021 was extremely, so much so , sea ice extent freeze-up rebound </div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">stalled greatly. Like clockwork, ENSO trended El'Nino similar to exact period in 2021, </div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">and eerily similar La-Nina trend struck, however this times La-Nina trend was in part responsible for a very dramatic Arctic cooling, because of cloud scarcity. Keep in mind that winter 2021-22 was trending very warm, with super high tropopause heights, along with adiabatic lapse rates similar to summer weather. When</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">the clouds cleared by mid March, the tropopause dropped in altitude by 5 Km! With more normal adiabatic lapse rates.. This sudden change in course of winter a key feature, because sun disks were bigger in February than at end of April. Reflecting the turn of events further, the Cold Temperature North Pole appeared strong for the first time of winter over the Canadian Arctic Archipelago, long did it last over Northern Siberia till February Not only did this CCA coldest vortice in the Northern Hemisphere became steady but had more pronounced features than past several years, from 2018 throughout 2020 the CTNP over the CAA was strong, this year had the most prominent features.</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">With this in mind, it may seem difficult to project ahead, but it isn't, mainly because refraction observations, not seen since 2016, the strongest El-Nino year in history, was surpassed in sun disk sizes until La-Nina trending went full swing. Not only that, First Melt under the sea ice, a feature detected by refraction means, was strong and consistent from early April onwards, equally similar to same time 2016, suggesting very thin ice twinned with a lesser thinner snow cover. </div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"> In essence 2022 projection should be very similar to 2021, if forgetting the late winter colder atmosphere, the incredible warm start of winter from clouds, so many unusual cloudy days , which of course implies warmer weather. This is known,; there is a smaller intense cooling at Spring start, this cooling should trigger sea ice melting ponds, because of the clear skies, implying very few clouds, also means a dramatic upswing in sea ice surface snow melting from mid May onwards. This late in winter super organized CTNP vortice is not going away quickly. But, will drag heat and moisture from the real weather maker rivaling ENSO, the North Pacific warm temperature blob, this cloud and rain maker or booster is seriously changing the North American summer Arctic , which has been experiencing rain like in temperate zones. Even if the coming Pacific extra clouds help shade sea ice from strong sun rays, rain can devastate sea ice almost just as much. </div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">Projections:</div><h1 style="clear: both; text-align: center;">May 1 to about July 15 </h1><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi819U0relWmTuFKGT_NJJBioB0KbGgsReG8ro4HGj-oNFadfPZgQOaxpr44dOcjcPoxLG6wN5jMsiCP9P4ZFCaCoA0h-7pCe130jhILti8_ijX5VbL-Jkb5jjYlcZaDdM6XQAP4nGTuLsLnIDrYoXbBQVhQM8SkLs1698GHJ1J_y4VYxdsBzs2xa3o/s1116/mayjune15.gif" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="826" data-original-width="1116" height="474" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi819U0relWmTuFKGT_NJJBioB0KbGgsReG8ro4HGj-oNFadfPZgQOaxpr44dOcjcPoxLG6wN5jMsiCP9P4ZFCaCoA0h-7pCe130jhILti8_ijX5VbL-Jkb5jjYlcZaDdM6XQAP4nGTuLsLnIDrYoXbBQVhQM8SkLs1698GHJ1J_y4VYxdsBzs2xa3o/w640-h474/mayjune15.gif" width="640" /></a></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">Circulation pattern largely like 2021 except 3 CTNP zones, major one will hover over the Canadian Arctic Archipelago (Big C in purple). Arctic Ocean basin High pressure will last longer this year, because it exists from extreme cold conditions, even if the CTNP is small in extent, the Arctic Ocean Gyre driving anticyclone is in a good place to last, because of weather dynamics. The coldest air will be over the CAA until snow cover melts, then, a surprise awaits, the permafrost didn't have a lot of cooling over the long night, this means that sea ice will be the greater heat sink. The Basin High will generate melting ponds likewise to 2008. </div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><br /></div><h1 style="clear: both; text-align: center;">July 15 To August 15</h1><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj7_J97qnXNpDkJNrncZt0byZYUsXw5IbuC56LbHc-mM1Nv4iJDem2XyarLaMpMyolE2ZTQISszl8TiA8dCvgYOVxBioS82jE7bkzNF3V5a7oThzqpYQ3semNIpzFHuTrml297pz9i6GBY0FR_dlYdX1QKxiKHiCilQRibEWuzYMFMYjg4OmFhEZug3/s864/JUne15august15.gif" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="826" data-original-width="864" height="612" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj7_J97qnXNpDkJNrncZt0byZYUsXw5IbuC56LbHc-mM1Nv4iJDem2XyarLaMpMyolE2ZTQISszl8TiA8dCvgYOVxBioS82jE7bkzNF3V5a7oThzqpYQ3semNIpzFHuTrml297pz9i6GBY0FR_dlYdX1QKxiKHiCilQRibEWuzYMFMYjg4OmFhEZug3/w640-h612/JUne15august15.gif" width="640" /></a></div><br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">The modest La-Nina just past may have only added to the warming of the North Pacific blob in warm temperatures, likewise it will help maintain a steady supply of rain to the NW Canadian Alaskan coast, especially clouds for the Canadian Arctic. What is left of the Polar jet stream (in green) will eventually vanish for a while, even when remnants of the jet is about, further Southwards weather will be stable in nature, sluggish in movement, prone to very hot in duration heat waves, and rainy periods for SE USA. Emphasis on heat waves making the headlines rather than rain though. The Arctic Basin pressure system switchover, although late, will have a Cyclone loving cold ice, in the wake of a gyre driving anticyclone. This cyclone favors less dumping of sea ice towards the Atlantic, but sea ice damage was already done, flushed out to Atlantic by the Gyre anticyclone lasting much longer than usual, also it helped adding thousands of extra ice surface water puddles, making sea ice very vulnerable even if this steady in place cyclone shields most sun rays. Like 2021, the CTNP will hover at the North Pole , while Siberia will bake strongly again. Swift changing weather pattern of NW Europe , will also slow to crawl as was summer 2021. Not as fast moving weather systems, may be detrimental depending on what it does, like extensive rainy periods causing damage.</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><h1>August 15 to September 25</h1><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEinSwhURIAQl9CUFhhW5iafczVALXYMWDTn23r9nPhDdglOStasSzfxu5_Udv1FE7M06Enlwmt2DPYFLHOHMezDvVBhrmqjRtZA6fgKy0YeY8ACWSW7-wiD6M7lFQwC5CGRdVy-HjKkNuLsBcw_fucttdKhBfQMI-bPTDCACWuk6DYeQGzrNzZNYRCN/s864/august15september25.gif" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="826" data-original-width="864" height="612" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEinSwhURIAQl9CUFhhW5iafczVALXYMWDTn23r9nPhDdglOStasSzfxu5_Udv1FE7M06Enlwmt2DPYFLHOHMezDvVBhrmqjRtZA6fgKy0YeY8ACWSW7-wiD6M7lFQwC5CGRdVy-HjKkNuLsBcw_fucttdKhBfQMI-bPTDCACWuk6DYeQGzrNzZNYRCN/w640-h612/august15september25.gif" width="640" /></a></div>The return of a bit of a Polar jet stream will come as the sun lowers to elevations not so warming, the Cold Anticyclone will be nearer Greenland as to hug what sea ice remains. Siberian Cold Temperature North Pole will faintly appear, along with North Greenland and Ellesmere Island cold temperature vortice. Note the vortices help form the north Pole anticyclone. while this North Pole High grows, a North Atlantic High will extend Southwards, making the East North American coast vulnerable to hurricanes. Most of sea ice will appear to melt suddenly later than usual, and the rebound freeze up will be very sluggish.</div><h1 style="clear: both; text-align: center;">Arctic Sea ice minima</h1><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjfuG9nKo6SFtqsg64Ef75HTnUPQVDpOG1pRrmI2JmTYRlLrdxPdcpvbRCMdzQUCIe5fEi_E13kawttp_f0r-b6xHBAmFEcWR_qQMwZLWj-nMnGYp5HJwPF6iP43SpIGT2pqhpDHY92rqwQ0Cp3da9NBbr559U4xuzaf0TxvJB6EzU-OWMtgdEVVW6G/s902/ice.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="710" data-original-width="902" height="504" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjfuG9nKo6SFtqsg64Ef75HTnUPQVDpOG1pRrmI2JmTYRlLrdxPdcpvbRCMdzQUCIe5fEi_E13kawttp_f0r-b6xHBAmFEcWR_qQMwZLWj-nMnGYp5HJwPF6iP43SpIGT2pqhpDHY92rqwQ0Cp3da9NBbr559U4xuzaf0TxvJB6EzU-OWMtgdEVVW6G/w640-h504/ice.png" width="640" /></a></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">Estimated sea ice extent at minima, sort of a mix result similar to 2007 and 2016. The areas away from the steady hovering mid summer gyre cyclone will suffer great ice loss especially North of central Siberia and North of Beaufort sea. Due to earlier puddles and hot air advection from continental heat waves. Unlike 2021 Minima, I'd expect more melting close to 2012 record, primarily because Arctic lands will warm faster this year especially on the Canadian side of the Pole. WD May 1, 2022. </div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"> </div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><br /></div>EH2Rhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15138541663354420708noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1163623182638963042.post-41825156259447218012022-04-17T17:27:00.005-05:002022-04-19T11:13:40.354-05:00Voyage at Center of Cold Temperature North Pole, temperatures decreased as the rest of the Northern World warmed<p>~All the latest exciting discoveries were encapsulated in the first 2 weeks of April 2022</p><p>~ As the Northern Hemisphere warmed, the Polar Vortex shrunk with extending outwards waves, while the CTNP gradually returned to central Canadian Arctic Archipelago (CAA), making it deeply colder compared to 2 weeks prior.</p><p>~Vertical sun disks shrank accordingly, but also had some expanded sun disks, meaning Cold Temperature North Poles have very small horizontal extents. </p><p>~Absolutely astounding reversal of tropopause heights were noticed as well, the tropopause at CTNP center can be as low as 5 km.</p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj2INDCmNv3nIU35FR__kw2FxikUaGzhmOyIQ5oWrfBLRl2DrFfKpTA1Pdo-D8XM1ZdD5HfujpmHSajfstfnZU51w2Wo6fBD7545lNP634oUdnKgxuR_JS-DXM4-tNQA8AUroGJ-0LXgeD2QiJXT95aRVo-3bUyf6nXbE-oOaoInY8HUY_HooqkwJ5N/s530/Apr-17cctnp.gif" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="482" data-original-width="530" height="582" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj2INDCmNv3nIU35FR__kw2FxikUaGzhmOyIQ5oWrfBLRl2DrFfKpTA1Pdo-D8XM1ZdD5HfujpmHSajfstfnZU51w2Wo6fBD7545lNP634oUdnKgxuR_JS-DXM4-tNQA8AUroGJ-0LXgeD2QiJXT95aRVo-3bUyf6nXbE-oOaoInY8HUY_HooqkwJ5N/w640-h582/Apr-17cctnp.gif" width="640" /></a></div><br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">The Canadian Arctic <span style="text-align: left;"> literally got colder as Spring progressed under the higher sun, how exactly does this happen? </span><span style="text-align: left;">600 mb altitude closely represents the temperature of the entire troposphere. The loop above show the only area not affected by southward waves of extended cold air, the center of the PV, deepened in cooling, where the atmosphere literally shrank in altitude as well, the CAA tropopause in March was often at 10 km in altitude or higher, by April 15 it was as low as 5.7 km (if not much lower). Hence, a warming world can still have areas of deep cold temperatures. In this latest event, it was the circulation stability at CAA which enabled greater freezing temperatures. Further South, the tip of Polar Vortex extended branches, waves, also caused multiple rogue vortices, which are weather entities capable of causing chaos, simply because they cool substantially moisture rich air basking in the Sub Arctic. At center of CTNP is like a voyage of exploration, where upon the observer remained steady. It turns out. The center of a CTNP is not perfectly round like the eye of a hurricane, but rather, much like the Polar Vortex wavy shape, rather a mini version, I say that because vertical sun disks at CTNP center are irregular, suggesting the horizontal core of CTNP column is amorphous, which may have a deeper connection with the very shape of the Polar Vortex. It was a unique privilege to be at at center of coldest air in the world, it is not like many may imagine, it was not cold, rather warmish, caused by the sensation calm surface winds do, the CTNP was for a while at center of a low pressure, which is fascinating, </span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><span style="text-align: left;">there was no other major detectable hint of it aside from sun disk anomalies. WD April 17 2022</span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><span style="text-align: left;"><br /></span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><span style="text-align: left;"><br /></span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><span style="text-align: left;"><br /></span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><span style="text-align: left;"><br /></span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><span style="text-align: left;"><br /></span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><span style="text-align: left;"><br /></span></div>EH2Rhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15138541663354420708noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1163623182638963042.post-9250804362818358842022-04-03T03:17:00.001-05:002022-04-03T03:17:25.164-05:00A Rogue extremely cold Vortice just flew by, an example of the new winter look for decades to come<p class="p1" style="font-family: Cambria; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;">~Winter may be officially over,<span class="Apple-converted-space"> </span>but it said final goodbye in NE USA on March 28</p><p class="p1" style="font-family: Cambria; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><br /></p><p class="p1" style="font-family: Cambria; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;">~It was a Rogue Vortice,<span class="Apple-converted-space"> </span>very cold Cold Temperature North Pole<span class="Apple-converted-space"> </span>cut off from the Polar Vortex</p><p class="p1" style="font-family: Cambria; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;">~Expect more of these more often for many winters to come</p><p class="p1" style="font-family: Cambria; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><br /></p><p class="p1" style="font-family: Cambria; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"> The geometry of winter has changed,<span class="Apple-converted-space"> </span>it has become thinner,<span class="Apple-converted-space"> </span>not bloated by darkness as it use to be.<span class="Apple-converted-space"> </span>In effect, winter still rages but for smaller areas, when so</p><p class="p1" style="font-family: Cambria; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;">the<span class="Apple-converted-space"> </span>vastly larger stable warmer air deepens the Cold Temperature North Pole(s),<span class="Apple-converted-space"> </span>not often at the North Pole,<span class="Apple-converted-space"> but </span>wherever it may be.<span class="Apple-converted-space"> </span>Sometimes very surprisingly, like a few days ago as on March 28 over Michigan USA,<span class="Apple-converted-space"> suffering </span>again a cold blitz,<span class="Apple-converted-space"> </span>something special makes it there,<span class="Apple-converted-space"> </span>perhaps it’s the location tip of the elongated end of the Polar Vortex,<span class="Apple-converted-space"> </span>stretched out with favorable cooling weather<span class="Apple-converted-space"> </span>twinned with some cold air advection.<span class="Apple-converted-space"> </span>At any rate, being in late March,<span class="Apple-converted-space"> </span>such a low latitude CTNP has no chance of living long,<span class="Apple-converted-space"> </span>as it did so. <span class="Apple-converted-space"> </span></p><p class="p1" style="font-family: Cambria; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span class="Apple-converted-space"><br /></span></p><p class="p1" style="font-family: Cambria; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;">However the geometry is of interest:</p><p class="p1" style="font-family: Cambria; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><br /></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjETN57PPejsYrwaj2YNyTBWpDz5uCR5wg6Tc_vr06P6vHbM2iK2Z_wh2r1oC_aOoUIVitw5Bp4psPsaNXWtPFSBMuwiBWSk-LqnLxovZXzBds1HZ9tO4Pdpehgf8H_G3CC-QLmg73Rc0gTjIhHtFLLhrmHtYIAUTsB5SnozSGCOd3OZ_KtqpidJ89K/s892/Apr-032022.gif" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="834" data-original-width="892" height="598" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjETN57PPejsYrwaj2YNyTBWpDz5uCR5wg6Tc_vr06P6vHbM2iK2Z_wh2r1oC_aOoUIVitw5Bp4psPsaNXWtPFSBMuwiBWSk-LqnLxovZXzBds1HZ9tO4Pdpehgf8H_G3CC-QLmg73Rc0gTjIhHtFLLhrmHtYIAUTsB5SnozSGCOd3OZ_KtqpidJ89K/w640-h598/Apr-032022.gif" width="640" /></a></div>If you look carefully at State of Michigan a cold zone formed by itself on the 26 of March. <div>It soon joined the elongated Polar Vortex rapidly in a day, there was a -31 C 700 mb temperature recorded there on the 28th. NOAA daily composite does not show this because this -30 C 600 mb area was so small. This rogue vortex moved rapidly North East and vanished afterwards. Cold air can form as cold as the Arctic in temperate zones, it depends on the weather. </div><div><br /></div><div> The vast expanse of a fierce winter does not tend to create Rogue Vortices:</div><div><br /></div><div> <div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiQfxE9fXfHzgaTZv9vguN7fSnlekbAjHrHcPhRQPYXTX_5G1UM_BrgkmUad0wiFEv3k8n9wHRn0PtG3eeAJYsRmTfizEcXEVX728HbKZE0maa5M8BHab1VKOUc17uPT0jX5A4nNWkmiM1u6giRe8URCDOKVTwuamhq8h-UlrgNySMpMV_7Ynd8--N0/s1126/rogue%202.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="991" data-original-width="1126" height="282" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiQfxE9fXfHzgaTZv9vguN7fSnlekbAjHrHcPhRQPYXTX_5G1UM_BrgkmUad0wiFEv3k8n9wHRn0PtG3eeAJYsRmTfizEcXEVX728HbKZE0maa5M8BHab1VKOUc17uPT0jX5A4nNWkmiM1u6giRe8URCDOKVTwuamhq8h-UlrgNySMpMV_7Ynd8--N0/s320/rogue%202.png" width="320" /></a></div> The jet stream (green) does not shear away and create a rogue vortice while the Polar Vortex is intensely very wide and cold (blue). That was occurring more often than not during not so long ago winters. When it got cold, it stayed that way for prolonged periods. Those were the days. </div><div><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEizqxKr2sEPlPxdWgibXYFDGMUugaD-qV0CO2_uINfd0CiCD1XecKVHAZIsjIOAY-qAMp1hPnzhV5pEfDyJmhBDZ28Oju-gvuXhsztrGjG4ueHE1qCVFiX4VWleeSlPkdmFg7n6UbD6DlfWjIJV3CnhTkoYKBa_AVez7F4Ikuh1cOsf5Kq1LgqhjRpO/s1160/rogue1.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="970" data-original-width="1160" height="268" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEizqxKr2sEPlPxdWgibXYFDGMUugaD-qV0CO2_uINfd0CiCD1XecKVHAZIsjIOAY-qAMp1hPnzhV5pEfDyJmhBDZ28Oju-gvuXhsztrGjG4ueHE1qCVFiX4VWleeSlPkdmFg7n6UbD6DlfWjIJV3CnhTkoYKBa_AVez7F4Ikuh1cOsf5Kq1LgqhjRpO/s320/rogue1.png" width="320" /></a></div><div> Recent winters were mostly warmer, not withstanding occasional periods of extreme cold weather.</div><div>Although never lasting long, characterized with hit and run blizzards followed by a lot of snow melting not long afterwards. Geometry explains this, a rogue vortice is easily created by narrower cold areas, the jet stream bends along a lot more with the smaller collapsing in size state of winter. Rogues have already shocked many people use to milder winter, easily forgetting it was so until a rogue hits their land. The intensity of cold atmosphere is related to how much stable time the low in altitude winter sun can not warm cloudless areas forcibly loosing long wave radiation, heat to space. The amorphous Polar Vortex as shown just above, tends to cause circulation stalls as well, increasing the chance of one region loosing radiation to space continuously for weeks. Hence strange reports of intense -40 C weather lasting long despite warmer weather everywhere else. WD April 3,2022</div><div><br /></div><div> </div><div><br /></div><div><br /><p class="p1" style="font-family: Cambria; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><br /></p></div>EH2Rhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15138541663354420708noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1163623182638963042.post-61947645061719987842022-03-21T23:19:00.001-05:002022-04-03T02:08:06.519-05:00Sun disks confirm anomalous Arctic warming<p> ~Especially away from the Cold Temperature North Pole</p><p>~Presently in the extreme Northern Arctic lands of Ellesmere and North Siberia</p><p> It took a while , more extensive cloud cover slowed data acquisition, but today help gathered more than 50 sun disk measurements having a remarkable 20% result of vertical sun disks being above all time highest decimal averages. 5% is considered normal random result, indicating no warming or cooling of the atmosphere. 20% is 4 times above normal. Not seen like this since 2010 and 2016. Turns out there is a warming, particularly over the Arctic Ocean, not coming as a surprise given the thinner sea ice: </p><p> https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2022/mar/21/extremes-of-40c-above-normal-whats-causing-extraordinary-heating-in-polar-regions</p><p> Indeed , all time high temps coincide with increasing clouds and the perpetuation of North Atlantic and Pacific moisture well above the Arctic circle, this evenings CMC 700 mb chart shows where the heat was found to be, not only today but for about the last 2 weeks. </p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgNiBQppE487WvH4ZzkeorrQrZk3pm209l4Ce_cHsxb_j_aPuTMGdeq9bFxl_co6-wh0QgT033wMfGbP-MGLP3ARTCuno-xEZwEV3mBaI2hfLaXZKHE5IHW4TavMAj1kHJmGbQfquR9eu42RTfnloGb0wl3BCYxvb_V8lXeyb_EyNb2-jD6XPBjwBfS/s726/areaofheat.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="500" data-original-width="726" height="440" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgNiBQppE487WvH4ZzkeorrQrZk3pm209l4Ce_cHsxb_j_aPuTMGdeq9bFxl_co6-wh0QgT033wMfGbP-MGLP3ARTCuno-xEZwEV3mBaI2hfLaXZKHE5IHW4TavMAj1kHJmGbQfquR9eu42RTfnloGb0wl3BCYxvb_V8lXeyb_EyNb2-jD6XPBjwBfS/w640-h440/areaofheat.png" width="640" /></a></div> In yellow is the area where sun disks were measured. There was a significant CTNP off West central Greenland a few days ago, now the CTNP hovers above Ellesmere Island. The CTNP was much further South preceding West Greenland, it had no staying power because of proximity to the North Atlantic, CTNP migrated from Northern Quebec to West Greenland and finally central Ellesmere in about 8 days., all while flowing air from the Arctic Ocean basin southwards West of 90W degrees longitude. In the not so distant past, this would have meant a significant deep freeze in the same area in yellow. Vertical sun disks are far more sensitive to the temperature of the entire atmosphere, than at any particular altitude. At recent vernal equinoxes particularly 2018, 2019 and 20, the CTNP was situated above the central Canadian Arctic Archipelago, strongly shrinking vertical sun disks, 2022 equinox scene is different, more like 2017 and preceding years, when sun disks were much expanded and representing the whole Arctic. Measuring sun disks from center of CTNP gave a peculiar distorted view representing a stable center of extreme cold clear sky weather which was unique compared to past 17 years. Colder air, albeit smaller in extent, can subsist even when warming is almost overwhelming at every locations.<div>WD March 21 2022<br /><div><div> <br /><p><br /></p></div></div></div>EH2Rhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15138541663354420708noreply@blogger.com0