Thursday, January 31, 2019

2019 Polar Vortex has always been in the Sub-Arctic

~Just stretched out a great deal spanning great  distances.
~The 'Meandering Jet Stream' is basically at its extreme periphery
~It is the Polar Vortex cold air/warm air boundary which causes the jet stream,   basically at its extreme periphery

This NOAA 600 mb temperature animation between January 24 to 28 defines the location of the Polar Vortex.  It is very stretched out,  and has vortices with very cold temperatures which form and disperse in a matter of days.  600 mb is the pressure altitude close to the average temperature of the entire troposphere.  


   Even NASA and Dr Jennifer Francis miss these basic features.....

From the Guardian (link here):

    This is not an accurate presentation.  as with NOAA animation above the Polar Vortex was already present South of the Arctic,  and  the "Chicago"  Polar vortice is at its extreme Southern end, was formed a few days ago (as one of many vortices found in the Polar Vortex)

"At the moment the vortex looks like two swirling blobs of cold air, one settled over North America, the other over Eurasia,” said Jennifer Francis, the senior scientist at the Woods Hole Research Center. “It splits up when there is sudden stratospheric warming.”

      The Polar Stratospheric Vortex has more than 10 times less pressure than the Tropospheric Polar Vortex,  its weighted temperature influence is thus  at least 10 times less important than temperatures in the lower Troposphere,  especially near the ground or sea surface.  The warmth over the Arctic Ocean as captured by the NOAA animation above closely depicts where the thinnest sea ice exists , or where the Arctic Ocean open water was  at yearly sea ice extent minima in September 2018.  The impact of thinner sea ice is obvious here.  I have checked the temperatures in the Stratosphere,  and they also reflect the heat from thinner sea ice escaping to space,  if there was a recent warming,  a 10 degree warming can only influence the troposphere below roughly more than 10 times less.    WD January 31 2019



Wednesday, January 30, 2019

Many weather presentations are off kilter, they miss the meaning of the non Arctic CTNP

~At present the Dakotas USA  -36 C 700 mb temperature is the coldest in North America
~Most weather medias present this latest "Polar Vortex"  event originating from the Arctic
~But the Arctic upper air is warmer than the Dakota CTNP (Cold Temperature North Pole),  how does this happen?


   CMC 700 mb temperatures 30/00 UTC,  these are actual balloon measurements, look at Dakota -36 C easily warmer than in the High Arctic.  Note 600 mb is close to the true level which represents the weighted temperature of the entire Troposphere. 

Not having any other charts available, University of Maine 500 mb pressure heights clearly depict potentially the coldest vortice within the Polar Vortex.  Clearly not in the Arctic. 

       The frequent misnomer used by weather medias naming and blaming  "Arctic Air"  is not quite always accurate, in this case the colder air vortice built itself well South of the Arctic,  which means,  a  thinner continental snow cover canopy twinned with clear air with low sun elevation at noon ,  along with longer dark nights than daylight can create colder than Arctic temperatures in the South of it.      A rapid Plains USA fluctuation in temperatures is soon to follow ,  with upcoming much warmer temperatures in a few days,  is merely a representation on how thinly spread out the cold air areas are,  or not really re-enforced by the Arctic,  but rather a fleeting happenstance generated by a steady in origin large Anticyclone.  WD January 30, 2019

Tuesday, January 29, 2019

Polar Vortex 2019, record cold weather in some parts of the Northern Hemisphere, an explanation

~The key in explaining is found in Global Warming
~And the clues abound all around
~Main bit of evidence starts from the ground.


   I leave the NY Times deal with the struggle to explain basic science dismantled by ignorant politicians.   But the Times  also have ably described the return of a particularly cold dreaded Polar Vortex,  which unbeknown to many Americans,  has visited Canada a couple of times already (some parts of Canada's neighborhood as  well).  In a truly normal winter,  say pre 1990's,  a cold wave would have hit Florida by now,  instead of slowing down its Southward advance at the 'wall' of a warmer USA.    The question still lies,  why so much colder?

University of Maine 2 m temperature basically displays  as cold surface air South of the Canadian Arctic as in the Arctic.  

Just how it gets so cold south of the Arctic is relatively easy to deduce considering 2 geophysical factors: snow or especially less or none,  cloud extent and especially few or none......

  Here is the biggest indice: December 2018 was warm,  very warm,  with the Cold Temperature North Pole in Northern Russia.  Warmer in winter can only mean less snow on the ground especially in the great continental interior lands.  

     The latest cutting edge refraction observations have revealed the main reason  why this  years vortex gathered strength even if not expansive:  less snow on the ground.  This has been observed optically,  all confirmed with thermistors.  The heat capacity of soil is less than air,  thus soil barely covered by snow during days with very low sun elevations twinned with lesser cloud extent, guaranties rapid cooling.   These two geophysical facts feedback on each other,      colder air implies less snow,  no winter clouds provides colder air.   These two create anticyclones,  long lasting high pressures during winter darkness create incredible cooling.

  This January 29 2019 CMC IR picture gives an idea of how much snow on ground there is,  not much throughout North America.

              There is less snow in North America than Eurasia,  it is to date,  a meek snow cover year. 

       Rogue vortices spin away from the Polar Vortex especially when the Vortex is stretched thin,  which is also what is happening.  The essential look of 2019 is a much warmer Alaska continuously warmed by the Pacific sst Blob cyclones,  which turned the jet stream strait towards Chicago,    only now we have a gathering of much colder air which took a month or so to gain extent and to permeate heavily populated areas.   WD January 28 2019