Thursday, July 19, 2018

2018 vs 2012 what is the difference ? about 200,000 km2 in extent

~Because Hudson and Baffin Bay + Kara sea still have not melted completely

     Kara had a late freeze up South of Novaya Zemlya  in 2018,  but still has some sea ice,  while 2012 close to 0 one day later (selected due to clouds).

Hudson + Baffin Bay with still lots of sea ice compared to 2012,  meaning the large difference is in Beaufort sea,  which as we know,  is flooded still with a continuous stream of sea ice.  WD July 19 2018

Wednesday, July 18, 2018

Neven blog stuff

Figure 1 final freeze season temperature anomaly,  the entire Arctic Ocean had a positive temperature anomaly much of it exceeding +5 C,  South of CAA  had a final burst very cold March April but over all had seasonal temperatures.

Figure 2,  Note high pressure zone projected exactly where it happened over NW Europe For April and May 2018.

Figure 3,  NW Europe had a bit of a shiver...

Figure 4,  the coldest air in the Northern Hemisphere  for June 2018 was centred Just North of Ellesmere Island.

  Figure 5,  Arctic Ocean surface air temperature anomaly March 15 to April 30 very positive despite claims otherwise. 

Sunday, July 15, 2018

Massive Counterclockwise river of Arctic Ocean sea ice floods Beaufort sea

~All while there are at least 2 clockwise gyres or sea ice vortices near by.
We can note that the near entirety of Arctic Ocean pack is turning counterclockwise,  except about Beaufort Sea receiving a gradually thinning pack coming from Russia, before that from the North Atlantic.  There are 2 smaller clockwise Gyres North of Alaska, but the main influx of ridging is towards its shores giving the illusion that this years melt is slow.  In fact as this JAXA June 28 to July 14 animation demonstrates,  the  Central Russian open water pack has vanished because of melting and the Ostrov Komsomolets Islands and Ozera Taymyr Peninsula acting like an ice dam,  and so goes for East Siberian Islands.  Once foreseen switching back to dominant High pressure North of Alaska will return,  the compaction will be ruthless in the other turning direction.  A couple of things to note:  The Normal Arctic Ocean Gyre has been overtaken,  Banks Island no longer creates open water by its circulation,   is extraordinary that Beaufort Sea has open water at all, the source of broken up sea ice appears endless at the moment.  In addition to Beaufort sea,  new Fram Strait's are now in Chukchi and Bering seas,  the North Atlantic sea water not receiving any sea ice can only warm further for extreme melting and be on the ready for when the Gyre driven Transpolar drift resumes.WD July 15 2018 

Viewed from space dark sea ice is toast, but may last a long time

We know the sea ice formed late in Barrow Strait,  this ice was thin at maxima in May (not like overall extent of  all sea ice),  made thinner by extra snow layer. Eventually it disappeared on July 7 2018, but for a persistent thin zone South of the Island, mainly in blackish.  The older in age first year ice has greyer shades.   These surviving sheets should eventually melt and disintegrate.  So did the blacker sheet at about July 12.

    If we compare these mechanics to the larger over all sea ice areas,  we now must look for the tell tell black shade depicting thinner sea ice. WD July 16 2018

Friday, July 13, 2018

Beaufort rapid retreat met by thinning sea ice replenishment

~Super fast 140 nautical miles in 8 days
~10 .8 nautical miles a day

Top of GIF June 25 to July 8 rapid sea ice retreat is met by equally fast pack ice replenishment    But the quick velocity pack is thinning and is running out of replacement capacity.  It has been this kind of melt in this area.

The retreat in Beaufort is met by a contrarian recently created wind current in Bering sea adjoining Alaska. This creates an ever so smaller compaction block as Bering sea is warm.WD July13 2018

Monday, July 9, 2018

Hollowing from within at 80 degrees North, the untold story

~Longitude 147 degrees West
~ Severe movement is destroying the fabric of stable sea ice

    2012 greatest melt in history  , about 80 North 147 West,  more or less stable sea ice which mostly all melted at maxima.

  2012 same date and location there is movement ,  as one big unified sheet.

    Same date same frame capture but 2018,  really broken up sea ice.  This a feauture of 2018 current melt.

     With much more open water barely recognizable sea ice structures  moving individually much faster,  not at all like 2012.  A completely unstable configuration prone to absorbing more sun rays  since there is much more open water.  On record,  the 15% extent  rule makes this nearly 100% sea ice.WD July 9 2018

Sunday, July 8, 2018

Sea ice extent analysis should be holistic

~Given the tools we have ,   ie the lack of proper ressources and using archaic meant for another era measuring methods,  we must study sea ice more profoundly.

2012 did not have coldest CTNP over the CAA in 20 years,  therefore a massive ice imprint,  much more significant than 2012,  as we can see,  with 2018 easily 400,000 km2 wide:

2012 sea ice same day looked emaciated and vanished. 

Before we judge 2018 extent magnificent recovery,  we must think of winter past,  when the lower CAA was really seasonally cold or colder.  Despite the entire Arctic Ocean being exposed with warmest weather. WDJuly 8 2018

Friday, July 6, 2018

Possible rudimentary ice thickness measurement mistakes requiring a revision

~We look here at specific sea ice anomaly charts versus actual observations which contradict each other

    First brought up June 10,

    PIOMAS May 2018 ice thickness anomaly map was exposed to have major flaws around Novaya Zemlya Island Russia.   Now we look at the whole region,    Note  all the JAXA July 5 NE passage water  (right) was once in said to be reddest thickest sea ice anomalies portrayed below:                                                                                                                                                                                                                 

                 I would suggest thicker snow layer on top of red sea ice zones as one of possible or the major explanation causing erroneous ice thickness  estimates. WD July 6 2018

Tuesday, July 3, 2018

Supercomputers are no good at flipping coins. Can't grasp what a CTNP is.

~Supercomputers are perfect,  but without a threshold of consciousness , they need ears and observation skills.

~Missed massive positive temperature anomaly for half of North America.
~Computer shows that it has no cognizance capable of recognizing a Vortex circulation.

Here is one of accuweather's  latest sketch:

   A dangerous ,  certainly multiple record shattering heat wave for North America.  We note especially the green cooler zone North of  the Great Lakes, is where the Canadian Arctic Archipelago CTNP lies (Cold Temperature North Pole,  fancy highly technical description simplification for the Polar Vortex),   which dominated the North American and Northern Hemisphere weather circulation most times since November 2017.  So how come the same super computers long term forecast gave this:

  Amazingly weird Accuweather long term forecast,  seems the model did not realize that the "below" blue zone temperatures was accurate,  and can only be part of a vortex structure strangely mangled winter like,  since Baffin Island can't be warmer like this in summer, when influx is from very cold North Atlantic.  Note the "Above" zones,  at least almost got State of Maine right.  Essentially a Vortex circulation is counterclockwise,  would drag much warmer air towards the Northeast to the South of it.

    NOAA July 2 temperature anomaly,  look at Baffin Island and Western North America.  This is exact picture of what as CTNP would do in summer.  Colder to its Southwest warmer to its Southeast.

   Therefore I would kindly request supercomputer to read my yearly April projection,  should not be that hard,  I read the models crunching's daily,  reading my humble forecast once a year should not be much of an effort...

Note NOAA + ECMWF models also got it wrong,  not only Accuweather but Weather Underground as well, it was foreseen as such:

Please note sensational new methods which enabled me to crack the temperature resolution syndrome:

Also my rudimentary sketches which turned out to be accurate:

    Note to human experts,  is nice to beat the computers at something,  I only win at computer chess 3% at the time.WD July 3,2018

Massive more static ice pans or fast moving broken up sea ice, which ice-scape melts fastest? Answer found in 2007

We first look at 2012 July 2 pack Just North of Beaufort sea:

2012 melted more in place, with extremely large pack ice pans, sign of slower movement.
   Same location July 2 2018, this static image is misleading, the sea ice is moving very fast, compressing in some parts scattering in others. Sun rays are effectively penetrating in the core pack more than 2012. There is a lot of 2018 open water not measured by the 15% rule as well.
   Beaufort sea 2007 end of June till mid July,  pack ice 2007 was more like 2018 than 2012.  But with apparent slower movement.  We know the great sea ice vanishing result in 2007,  which had more extent of much thicker sea ice than 2018 on July 2.  This indicates a strong melt is in the cards for 2018....WD July 3 2018

Monday, July 2, 2018

Velocity driven sea ice, apparent slow incremental melting is about to change suddenly

  Beaufort sea,  there was more open water a while back,  sea ice is constantly replenished until it becomes too scattered which evidently is demonstrated here with JAXA extent June 28,30 and July 1 (the darkest sketch).  Eventually the ice will melt further as it disperses,  it is surely a most effective way of melting sea ice but takes more time to show.     Western entrance of the Northwest passage will show very few clues about this if observed from Banks Island Canada.  Basically one static sheet of sea ice reflects more light than broken up ice pack.  Of course a more static sheet would allow an un-intruded area of sea water to warm further,  but the melting goes slow at the main pack shore area. Here we have sea water warming up deep within the pack core.  As this animation demonstrates,  eventually a greater deal of the loose pack will be infiltrated by warmed surface water unmixed by winds.  WD July 2 2018

Sunday, July 1, 2018

Dark Bering sea ice trap, super melting

~While we contemplate the bigger picture,  apparently more sea ice than 2012?
~Whilst Beaufort sea gets flooded with rapidly moving sea ice
~A giant melt machine is in place

  Whilst summer in progress, already forgotten last winter Bering Strait lack of sea ice has already started a melt factory:

Bering Strait 2018 has much more open water than 2012,  2018 has much much faster Gyre current than 2012,  the combination is doom for sea ice at that location:

June 21 to July 1 2018 rapid sea ice melt in progress,  the gyre sends its badly broken up sea ice  over warmed up waters from the left (Alaska),  on its way clockwise it melts over more ancient warmer water,  leaving but open water in its wake.  WD July 1,2018

Formula 1 Arctic Gyre: 48 nautical miles in 7 days

North of Beaufort Sea June 15 to June 27 2018,  we look at the biggest pan of ice from June 20 to 27 moving nearly at 7 nautical miles a day due West which crashes sea ice up Alaska's Arctic coast.  The amount of sea ice scattering is quite remarkable, its self inflicted  crushing to mush does not show up as a lessening of sea ice extent.... Yet....

     As soon as there is a break in the contrarian winds,  the Gyre current takes up it's true form  ,  we also note that on this picture above,  extent as likely stayed the same or increased,  despite no freezing at all,  in fact due to temperatures there should have been a substantial decrease.   The outdated standard concept of 15% extent rule was not designed for this reality,  and no authority measuring sea ice  has adjusted to the new reality of thinner ice spreading out more vigorously. WD July 1, 2018 

Saturday, June 23, 2018

2012-2018 What is the difference? Over all sea ice is thinner

~After all first melt was earliest in history
~Sea ice snow cover was thicker in many Arctic quadrants
~How to judge with perfect hindsight

   With respect to sea ice over all thinness,  we can recognize by how easy it breaks up during the melting season.  None better place than Lancaster Sound:

June 22 2012-13-14-15-16-17 and 2018,  we note with great interest 2012, the year with the greatest sea ice melt in history, with irony,  had the thickest sea ice in Lancaster sound,  sea ice which survived well beyond July:

   How does the greatest melt in history have the thickest most persistent sea ice here?   It simply was a matter of the gradual degradation of sea ice year by year...    Which is part and parcel with the ongoing thinning of sea ice process,  therefore since 2012,  the overall sea ice of a huge area of the Arctic has had less volume even with similar extent,  namely from two processes,  more surface snow and warmer temperatures.  At Lancaster Sound, the winter of 2018 had large positive temperature anomalies until mid February.

June 15-16-17-18-19-20-21-22.  Not long ago on June 15 2018,  sea ice in Lancaster appeared rock solid but was in fact very fragile, extent of roughly 50,000 km2 sea ice is currently in the process of disappearing in a matter of a few days.

   July 3 2012,  more sturdy and strong than 2018,  appeared very similar to 2018 June 15:

June 15 2018 looked solid, but undeniably thinner than 2012 which really broke up nearly a month later.:
Amazing irony to find sea ice so resilient during the year with greatest melt in history.  But Arctic sea ice loss of volume process never stopped since

     Hindsight being 20/20 we can study every location having rapidly disintegrating sea ice by surmising the strong possibility that it was even thinner than thought or measured. WD June 23, 2018  

Friday, June 22, 2018

2018 Shake and Bake sea ice

~Huge difference between 2012 and 2018 is sea ice velocity
~2018 Beaufort sea ice is still moving very fast
~This of course distorts 2018 extent numbers until much further melting likely requiring less solar energy.

 June 14 to 22 2012,  note the rather unison movement of the sea ice towards land.

As opposed to 2018 same period,  with strong clockwise motion.  Note encroaching broken up sea ice over the already exposed dark sea water next to shore.  This obviously increased extent all while there was no new ice made.  This exposes the problem of the 15% extent rule,  largely dedicated for a long gone Arctic Ocean ice architecture which did not collapse from within.

    Extent wise 2012 appears to have more open water but 2018 has far more surface water within the main sea ice body.  Greater motion adds to extent as well,  but also pulverizes the sea ice pans more.  The difference here between 12 and 18 will be made more apparent when greater melting continues,  it seems obvious that one year had less intra collisions (2012) than the other (2018).  This is the difference to consider,  a more fluid pack interspersed with water is also more capable in dispersing sea ice in the wider open zones,  in effect increasing apparent extent numbers,  until what would eventually appear to be a near spontaneous melt down,  apparently sudden from all the crushing action transforming  uniformly reflecting solar forcing vast sea ice canopy to a partial pulverized slushy mix.

Consider June 22 2013

    We know the long term results from  this kind of ice structure,  it will lead to lesser melting come sea ice minima.   This is not the case in 2018 and was not so for 2012.

now consider 2102 August 1 before the great cyclone of August 5

    Sea ice largely melted in place,  unlike 2018 which is already broken up.   It is now a matter of cloud coverage (which dominated in 2013),  if similarly less as of 2012 season,  2018 has a good chance of surpassing the all time lowest extent record.    But clouds should persist till beginning of August,  again mimicking since 2012 a new summer cloud-scape caused by thinner sea ice and a different circulatory system.

WD June 22, 2018

Monday, June 18, 2018

Speed of 2018 Beaufort sea ice velocity twice as fast as 2012 at peak of Gyre boosting by presence of very long lasting Anticyclone over it

 2018 June 1 to 9  Beaufort sea ice speed , the biggest pan amongst open water  mid extreme left,  is 12.5 nautical miles  to the West .  It disintegrated on June 9
2012 June 1-9 bullet shaped ice pan moved 5.6 nautical miles a day.

    Peak 2018 Gyre sea ice speed before switchover was extremely bad for sea ice,  it slowed to a third  next 7 days because of Cyclonic presence over the Arctic Ocean Gyre,  still very impressive velocity,  25 % less than 2012 during the same period,  it means that when the cyclones weaken or disappear the speeds would rival or exceed 2012 again,  implying a similar 2012 melt is in the cards.  WD June 18 2018

Sunday, June 17, 2018

The current green line, the border between thin and thicker sea ice

~Obviously, top of snow melts more when over thinner sea ice
~Let's take a look

 First we find ESA Maxima picture of the icescape.

Then we look at latest NASA EOSDIS greening of Arctic sea ice:

   With June 2 to 15 2018 animation we can clearly define deep greening zones from the colder highly reflective top white surface ....

   It seems all the Arctic Ocean changed colour, however basically where there is greater surface melting there is a stronger greening,  caused by water ponds, closely outlining the thicker sea ice areas. Ice having a colder core temperature allows top of snow to further resist melting surface temperatures,  top of snow temperature is a reflection of sea ice core minimum.   We can see here the rough outline of beginning of August open water limits,  deeply influenced by thick ice in great part created by Gyre circulation compaction.

2012 to 2018 comparison

     At same June 15 date, 2012 sea ice melt was stronger in the Beaufort,  but 2018 Bering Sea open water is much more prominent:

    Along  North of Russia 2018 has a greater ongoing melt ,  despite 2012 and 18 deeper greening being similar,  but with 18 having more open water,  one must factor the clouds as having an impact over true colours.    2012 can be recognized by next to Wrangle Island open spot.

WD June 17 2018

Wednesday, June 13, 2018

Sea ice delusions by thick snow carpet, crystals of illusions

~Whether viewed close by  or from space,  sometimes thin sea ice looks much thicker

Kara sea ice is disintegrating rapidly not only because the sun is melting it like crazy, but rather a mix of ripe conditions,  namely its ice is  mostly very thin,  especially with a lot of snow on it,  but winds and current were not able to blow it away until today,  so thin ice is not as fragile as thought and can easily be broken all at once, not especially detectable from close or afar,  even from space, especially with snow layers .    Only Inuit hunters are best at detecting, because there is a hundred words for snow in Inuktitut the language of the Arctic, snow surface structures may define what it covers.  (NASA EOSDIS June 1-8 2018).  

Other side of the Pole in the Canadian Arctic Archipelago,  April 2 to 9 2018,  a massive chunk of ice disintegrated at the entrance of the Northwest passage, Lancaster Sound,   quite unusual to see Lancaster filled with apparently solid sea ice,  a few times in the past ,  during the coldest years it did so,  the last severe Lancaster Sound full coverage had thicker sea ice surviving till mid July 1987.    2018 is not 1987,  has illusions of such,  February March 2018 had very cold favorable for rapid new sea ice formation,  I estimate most of Lancaster sea ice to be lesser than 80 cm though  ,  there is a lot of snow on it,  giving the impression of thick sea ice,  this snow reduced accretion. But here is the illusion which will unravel when the structure of compacted hard snow gets pummelled by warm sublimation and under snow melting,  along with tidal and winds severe stresses,  large chunks of Lancaster ice will disappear in a matter of a few days.  Cohesion of thin sea ice is remarkable,  but ultimately fails in apparent massive extent events.   

     There is also the illusion of sea ice extent itself,  we note 2012 amongst this 2010-2018 June 9 animation,  2012 the year having the greatest melt on record,  had on its June 9  the most Lancaster Sound sea ice of all.    It is important to judge sea ice with a context of complications, all encompassing measures,  winds, tides, current,  momentum,  lead structures, architectural layouts , snow cover and temperatures must be considered.   If for instance Kara sea South of Novaya Zemlya Island has persistent winds compacting thinner sea ice in its pocket,  its ice would appear thick till favorable conditions would vanish it out of existence.  This disintegration rapidity factor must be considered chunk by massive chunk,  although some parts of ice survives does not mean its adjoining ice is different.    One main reason why thinner sea ice may survive longer is that it is smooth on top, the winds glide over with lesser friction. WD June 13, 2018

Tuesday, June 12, 2018

Arctic Ocean circulation Switchover occurred as expected in late April projection...

~Temperature is key ,  now Arctic Cyclones are colder than High pressures.

CMC June 12 2018,  with a High now over Baffin and a low over the Arctic Ocean Gyre,    in between is the CTNP vortex,   the pressure scene has SWITCHED ,  offering some hope for sea ice with extra cloud cover.

Further a study:

What separates the High from the Low is a cold upper air zone not measured in a significant density  grid manner.  700 mb temperature and pressure heights CMC June 12, 2018 1200 UTC.

   What remains is the possibility of an Arctic Dipole,  which is a rare event at this time of great melting.      The possibility is there but requires a High over Alaska which may venture North. Mean time we must judge how fragile sea ice is by its velocity:

       Impressive speeds of sea ice drift makes for a great melt,  it is fortunately the source of open water.  Fog and cloud source at near 0 C temperatures.    WD June 12, 2018