Friday, March 13, 2020

2020 Lower Polar Vortex shrank by 8.5 million square kilometers compared to 2012 , 2020 has smallest area every year since

~The lower in altitude Polar Vortex area right above surface of Earth is warming fast
~ Even compared to 2016,  El-Nino driven warmest year in history
~It is unquestionably clear,  warming at the core of the vortex is from over all thinner sea ice

From Jim Hunt's website :

There is not much doubt about how thinner Arctic Sea ice has become.  It may be even less than estimated:

NOAA daily composites January 1 to March 19 2020,  925 mb temperature average.  2020 is clearly  the smallest vortex area by millions of square kilometers.    From this overview, there is not much guessing as to why this current winter is amongst the warmest in history.    Again note,  the smaller the vortex the colder its Cold Temperature North Poles can be. This is a distinct feature of our current climate.  What is particularly interesting is the 2012  Canadian Arctic Archipelago  crescent CTNP  zone being nearly identical to 2020,  a precursor to 2012  atmospheric pattern leading to all time lowest sea ice extent at end of summer. WD March 13, 2020

Friday, February 21, 2020

Winter 2020 breaks 8 Omicron circulation cycle

~Major circulation pattern forces in a distinct climate result for spring summer 2020
~Similar in nature to spring summer 2019 weather
~Implying lots of rain,  as if it will be a surprise for Midwest North America and NW Europe
~8 Omicron pattern was noticed especially after 2012
~2020 breaks the cycle namely for Alaska-CCA-Midwest N.A. and NW Europe 2019 weather

 Introducing the 8 Omicron Arctic Polar Vortex pattern,  pay attention to 2012-13,  2014-15, 2016-17, 2018-19 morphology or the shape of the Vortex perimeter:

   8 Omicron mid-winter circulation pattern, 8 in shape for 2012, 14, 16 and 18, Omicron pattern 2013, 15,17, 19 and 20. From NOAA daily composites 600 mb temperatures (600 mb is the pressure level representing the average temperature of the entire atmosphere, 248 Kelvin, -25 C,  is where the Northernmost  jet stream can most likely exist).   It is a Ying Yang cycle, largely caused by gradual warming Oceans and Arctic sea ice minima melts and maximum reformation (cousin of warming oceans), especially considering lost sea ice volumes as the years went by.   Big news:  2019 2020 Vortex periphery  looks similar to each other,  despite 2019 being a significant melt summer.  I suggest the latest 2020 pattern is due to CTNP consolidating Northwards,  because the Vortex is getting smaller year by year.  This latest Omicron Omicron 2019-2020 vortex pattern,  infers 2020 being much like 2019,  except for Alaska being colder and being largely within the Vortex (colder) , not as it was largely out (warmer) every winter since 2012.  Refraction optical method monitoring the Western Canadian Arctic Archipelago should indicate how unique or split in two the Cold Temperature North Pole (s) will be.

     Meantime,  your wet soggy weather can be largely attributed to Omicron pattern whipping ocean air  straight onto the Western continental coasts,  as opposed to 8 shapes seasons diverting the Eastern oceans moistures and warmth Northwards.   Early prognosis for 2020:  hope you the enjoy more rain if you are East and West coasters,  the Ying and Yang of moisture,  mainly a consistent Pacific flow  joining the Atlantic Gulf stream making dry spots only within central continents  ....  WD February 21, 2020

Tuesday, February 11, 2020

Now that is strange, really different Arctic circulation patterns countinue

~Winter 2019-20 High Arctic circulation sharply deviates from preceding 8 years
~It means the sea icescape,  despite extent gains,  is really different

  February 11, 2020 NOAA animation loop courtesy CMC.    Yes a Cyclone from the Atlantic is heading to the Pacific straight from East to West.  Because the CTNP,  the North American Cold Temperature North Pole vortice is well South of the Canadian Arctic Archipelago.   Is quite warm over Ellesmere Island at present compared to further South.  Even though Ellesmere is still plunged in 24 hour darkness.   All in all, 19-20 winter is no recent year pattern repeat.  This feature announces more strangeness to come.  WD Feb 11,2020 

Saturday, February 1, 2020

Spectacular Surface Cyclone with no clouds was really a CTNP vortice

~ Arctic Winter 2019-2020 has a smaller Polar Vortex with many Polar vortices, with centers West of CAA, NE Siberia and even Alaska
~The Western Canadian Arctic Archipelago Cold Temperature North Pole vortice was quite spectacular:

  At times defined as a Low or High surface pressure, the extreme white Zone at the Western shores of Arctic Archipelago was the long lasting CTNP vortice of this region.  Where surface temperatures have easily attained near -45 C.  This is a continuance of smaller Polar Vortex geophysics.  CMC January 29-30  2020 IR loop portray the simultaneous encroachment of much warmer clouds moving quite fast while appearing being pulled around extreme cold air.   The combination of many vortices within the smaller in extent Polar Vortex created mainly above normal temperatures in populated areas of the Northern Hemisphere with the occasional spike of cold freakish weather as a result from rogue vortices,  which have been triggered by strong moving Northwards cyclones elongating the P.V. Southwards .  WD February 1, 2020

Friday, January 3, 2020

Coldest New Years Eve Cold Temperature North Pole in Meteorological history, since 1948

~Resulting from stable weather exacerbated and surrounded by a much warmer atmosphere
~First observed in spring 2017 by refraction sun disk method
~A surrounded shrunken by greater heat Polar Vortex gives deeply cold vortices.

     December 31 2019,  with Polar Vortex off center weighted temperature measuring -48 C CTNP over Ellesmere Island, the coldest such air ever measured for this date,  surpassing all others by 4 degrees C (1948-2018).
In Purple, deeply frozen weighted atmosphere using 600 mb, the rough altitude giving the average temperature of the entire troposphere.  Note the near proximity to much warmer air,  by +23 C, within a mere few hundred kilometers,   a feature of this phenomena.  In the past,  same date CTNP's were more Polar Vortex centric.  This amazing phenomena coexists with a much warmer Northern Hemisphere atmosphere.  With Jet Stream in some sectors way Northwards, at some locations brought Southwards by lower pressure found in huge cyclones.   Without Low pressure systems,  the outline of 600 mb at -25 C would be roughly the Northern end of the Jet Stream.  This small but impressive -48 C CTNP vortice is about 20 C colder than normal for this time of the year, compared to all other years since NOAA daily composite allows,  1948,  this region is the coldest New Years Eve in recorded history.  

The best way to explain this is to balance the presence of much warmer air, being onto itself more stable, especially during anthropogenic enhanced global warming days,  with a significantly smaller region of much colder air.  A weather stable region in darkness or with very low sun, is bound to get very cold,  because it is isolated, does not have a lot of heat input. This Ellesmere Island CTNP  is a continuance of the same one which was further to the West 3 or 4 days ago,  a cold vortice tends to place itself wherever ideal radiative cooling exists with very little heat advection or convection (from snow laced lands rather than thinner sea ice).   WD January 3, 2020