Arctic Cyclone storm surge effects on already badly broken 2016 sea ice

   It is really in reality deja vu,   August 5 2012 had a deep cyclone apparently clearing sea ice very quickly.  It was so, but there was pre-conditioning of sea ice,  already on the verge of melting completely, with ice column temperatures at or near the melting points of saltier bottom and top fresh water like ice.  The Cyclone opened up sea ice much further,  stirred the sea water column where there was open water.     Now we have a somewhat slower, quasi stationary approx 990 mb large Low North of East Siberian Sea.  Sea ice was already broken up before it flayed it further,  it will be very interesting to see if there has been residual effects similar with 2012 Aug 5 event:

    Cyclone July 26 opened up the ice much further,  black water is seen near its centre,  a particular place where sea water level rises more than at the far perimeter of the cloud waves.  Prior to the cyclone,  North of East Siberian sea was already quite open,  part of the "Laptev bite" look.    What is very interesting is the storm centre black zone.

     What is the difference with 2012?

July 26 2012 same area had sea ice far less broken,   which eventually melted/compacted at minima.    Although the East Siberian sea of 2016 had similar open water to the Laptev sea of 2012.

We can conclude from AMSR2 data and the NASA overviews that this Cyclone had not quite the same effect as August 2012 Low,  after all it was not as strong,  but did indeed create a great deal more open water,  highlighting the fragility of sea ice surely to vanish come mid September, especially if the ratio of open water to sea ice extent was increased.  WD July 26,2016   

Beaufort area 400,000 km2 almost permanent broken ice area is clearing/melting.

   Unless it is a big melt year,  end of July usually offers a few clues about coming minima outlook.
This year is no different,  but has its own quirks,  namely an area about 400,000 km2  north of Beaufort sea which had a continuous injection of broken ice pans,    the physics involved is simple
and complex by many varying geophysical parameters.

Ice melts quicker when ice core temperature is close to 0 C.  This is the main reason why melting occurs faster at end of July,  there are of course other factors,  which is warmer air and sea temperatures,  but it is very difficult for surface air to warm a whole lot with the presence of sea ice2 meters below.  

      From the constant presence of ice a summer temperature battle ensues,  and thus temperatures without a great deal of very warm advection injections remain steady, especially by latent heat  of fusion of ice, the warming can't really be measured by air temps.   Eventually the most vulnerable sea ice, an ice pan surrounded by warmed sea water, vanishes quickly.  The melting point in the ice column was  achieved by many pieces of sea ice as per July 25 2016, achieving a  greater melt than all previous days.   

Before July 25,  the smallest blocks of ice didn't survive very long,  leaving the larger ones to travel Westwards.  However now is the time when the greatest melting can happen,  the heat transferred to sea ice, a continuous heat sink, renders sea ice to mush to melt to water.      

The only Mass Buoys currently active; 2015f 83.11 N 139.14W has an average core temperature above -1 C and strategically located Mass Buoy  2015 J   77.8N 157.16W has similar ice core temps.  These buoys ice surface  are more or less not surrounded by open water. Again, the latent heat of fusion of sea ice captures a lot of the heat otherwise manifested warmer on ground surfaces of the near by archipelago Islands. 

Summer DMI model calculation of surface air temperatures appear usually steady,  over all past summers, rarely at great variance with about +1.5 C at peak.  This is a good example of sea ice moderating air temperatures when the latent heat of fusion is active.    The wild variances over the dark season are due to warm air advection largely by Northwards penetrating cyclones, these carry a much wider temperature difference than sea ice during winter,   summer cyclones apparently do not give such effects, which is quite fascinating.   wd July25,2016

Laptev bite vs Beaufort melting zone; there is a substantial difference

     June 21 to July 23 2016 AMSR2 Shizuku satellite displays many melting areas,  but the two most prominent have different features,  Beaufort receives a great deal of sea ice from the Gyre current,  most ice pans usually perish westwards,  some survive long and cause a distorted calculation of apparent more sea ice due to the 15% extent criteria.  The Laptev 'bite' has no such qualms,  when it sweeps Northwards there is no sea ice replenishment process.  We may conclude that most surviving ice in Beaufort Area will melt and eventually cause rather large extent drop numbers.  Furthermore the Laptev sea Northward expansion has a huge potential since Northward ice displaces very fluidly. A double "arch" water area is forming along 150E longitude line widening water zones Eastwards and Westwards from sea ice displacements to the North all the way to 85N and likely Polewards very fast.  WD july25,2016

Laptev bites not so crunchy Northern ice, North Pole is beginning to open.

     A closer look at the North Pole to Russian sector ice,  July 18-22 2016.  A very peculiar split of sea ice movement,  one to the Northeast the other to the Northwest at the point where the Laptev Sea appears to bite the ice pack at 80 N and 150E longitude.    The old ice Guard of the Pole seems to scatter accordingly.  WD july 24, 2016

Radically different melt seasons 4 years apart. 2016-2012 comparison.

   July13 to 23 2016,  we see more or less a standard Melt pattern.  The Laptev "bite", the Beaufort melting zone , Fram Strait particularly flowing a little less than usual.  But we see a huge shatter zone of rubble ice making CAB extent all time lowest.

    Turns out July 13-23 2012, was largely atypical,  with the Gyre movement appearing to turn counterclockwise,  with the Beaufort melt zone receiving ice From Northeastern Russian seas.
Missing with 2016,  the CAB huge shatter zone.  In this sequence ,  2012 appears to have a stronger CAB ice pack.  But most of the ice in its peripheral shatter zones vanished.  Leaving to wonder if 2016 will have no ice at all  South of the Pole in the Russian sector.WD july 23,2016

Shattering expectations and sea ice 2016

~Great differences with 2013 demonstrated

         How come 2016 melt season is not the same as 2013?  After all there were some lingering persistent cyclones,  apparently cooling the red hot warmed Arctic in June.  First of all July 21,2013 looked like this:

    A well covered Beaufort area to persist till refreeze, it was not exciting to watch, especially following 2012 melt season.    While Beaufort Sea ice melted long before July 21 2016.

     There was also an incredible "Big Blue" sky period in Spring 2016,  the Gyre turned clockwise under the influence of very long lasting Anticyclones despite Earths thickest ice pans,  for months the Gyre current was reinvigorated in spring set for summer.    This transformed Beaufort Area  into a sea ice melting region.  Effectively emptying the Current Arctic Basin of a lot of its ice,  thinning it to the point where there is now a whole lot more sea water in the mix, more than ever, making CAB sea ice extent lowest on record at this current date of year:

      Beaufort Region became the prime Sea ice melting zone,    shattering,  thinning and melting sea ice during July 5 to 21 2016 period especially due to lingering Cyclones whisking by slowly combined with a persistent Gyre rotation.  This shattering of sea ice caused a somewhat sluggish melt rate at times,  in particular when winds spread out the ice in smaller parts more evenly.    But open water/ice mix extent of sea ice is rather of disastrous quality,  ready to vanish in a few days.  The  thinning of most of a good chunk CAB can be seen on July 21,  with the best most strongest ice heading towards the melting block.    Brings into question whether sea ice extent numbers really tells the pictures as above,  thanks to NASA we understand reality better.

           2016 Melt season is only similar to 2013 due to the persistent cyclones hugging open water areas.  The holistic icescape look is completely different,  and so is the weather, especially  temperature and circulation,  with often 2016 North Pole Highs and the occasional mini dipoles in the 2007 locations.   This scattering of sea ice will lead to massive melt extent numbers,  because the 15% of grid content will drop to 0.     WD  July 22,2016

Keep rocking in the Arctic world, current melt and sea ice flow revealed

~  2016 July sea ice action has remarkably steady Gyre flows and North Atlantic "breathing" ice front

NASA EOSDIS last few days demonstrating rapid Melting in the Western North American sector of the North Pole,    flowing through Fram Strait,  and remarkable "breathing" sea ice at the North Atlantic Front,  likely again due to displacement of sea ice towards open water melting rapidly.  WDJuly 15,2016

Illusions 2016 melt season: The bigger Arctic Gyre appears steady despite winds trying to stop it

~ Fram Strait still has steady incoming ice as well.

   There is a lot of talk about how dominant Arctic Ocean winds,  in some large part opposite to clockwise Arctic Ocean  Gyre, "was not favourable" for compaction,   gave a "lackluster performance" in June and therefore the melt season is basically "dull".... and especially melt ponds are not numerous.  NASA ever so potent and a hugely positive force for correct science,  projects
a large sea ice extent to remain Mid-September.  But will that happen?

JAXA captured intense activities,  despite apparently a "slow June",  if you look very carefully, there was a larger Gyre North of Alaska somehow turning ice clockwise,  with a classic motion compaction, opening water more and furthering the melting process.  Another  panhandle  of slower melting ice is already in place,  about Wardle Island,  the now often appearing Laptev "bite"  precedes a huge broken up ice field further North.  Ice is receding on every front.   Except Fram Strait which has a net output of sea ice.

    From here ,  we clearly observe that the Cyclones did not impede a normal summer year melt as much as imagined.   Except for the famous melt ponds:

"Caveat"  model estimation of melt ponds,  as found on Neven's best sea ice site in the world,  truly bizarre,  especially in the Alaska sector of the Pole,  we have seen the ponds from space:

       The greenish appearance of sea ice mid June,  classic melt ponds colour, this is observed on the surface,  a light green ice top world.


  Beaufort sea had record heat temperatures  reported.   But here we find again a hint,  the models calculate surface temperatures too cold.  It turns out that I have found North of Alaska model surface air calculation  too cold, a few weeks ago,  I made an example of it in June...   The model output was in violation of above sea ice refraction prime rule:  surface air can't be colder than top of sea ice,   especially applicable  in summer!  When ice is a heat sink.

    Having been studying apparent illusions for years,  it seems obvious that we are in for a greatest melt,  despite smoke and mirrors clouds/fog and ice.  Its not that natural illusions are set to deceive,  rather,  belief in a conclusion far away from now,  does that quite well.  WD June 12, 2016  (few seconds before midnight)..

Sea Ice survival last defence: Clouds and Cyclone friendly open water

~2013 like Gyre stall possible but 2016 July icescape not at all like 2013.

   What was hiding under the latest stable cyclone at about the Pole?   A sea water with broken pack ice mix much greater than 2013. same date 82 N 150 E.   2016 has severely less ice, its good for  cloudy Cyclones.

    April 2016 EH2r  projection called for a June July High pressure centred about the Pole,  this is happening now,  but had a real hard time establishing itself.  Since June, Atlantic and Pacific Cyclones constantly penetrated the Arctic Ocean region.  There is only one reason for that,  open water, especially mixed with broken sea ice.  There is a heat engine complex, in particular next to more consolidated ice from the Pole to North American side of Arctic, which is where the Anticyclones have a chance to last.  But the Arctic North American Arctic Quadrant sea ice has a problem,  more snow fell over it during the winter,  due to winter 2015-16 dominant circulation pattern, North Atlantic moisture shed itself there .  As you might have read,  more snow is a twin edged sword,  it protects sea ice in spring,  but also slows down accretion appreciably over the winter.   The pressure dipole now forming between Canadian Arctic Archipelago (more ice) and North of Siberia (less ice) will dominate this period for a while,  until the weaker state of sea ice, on the Canadian side of Pole, will reveal itself  after the protective snow cover vanishes completely.WD July 7, 2016