LATE season melting examples

~With clouds rarely absent ,  a  glimpse of pre-minima very late melting

   Extraordinary "Goodbye Waves" action,  EOSDIS September 9 and 13,  notice they differ in 4 days,  indicating different ice melting,  because a goodbye wave is a final wave of an individually distinct ice mass.  This loop confirms current active melting when the minima should have been declared, the picture with less sea ice is on the 13th.   Sea ice agglomeration density of thousands of little ice islands significantly reduced as well.

  Wrangle Island  has +9 C surface water near by,  seen top left,  during same 9-13 loop ,   all these remaining micro packs are doomed.    Notice internal melting mid extreme right. 

    We are not even dealing with compaction,  which if allowed,  would rapidly reduce sea ice extent
even more dramatically,  a considerable cyclone would do so.  WD September 13, 2018

Differing resolutions confusions

~There is a whole lot less ice than 15% extent rule 16 KM grid suggests
~We explore differing resolutions

   Despite latest reports suggesting we are at minima,  not so, at minima again,  nope,  largely because of wind system changes, despite there is still a great deal of melting going on in the Pacific side of the Pole.  However a significant Arctic Ocean air temperature dipole exists, on the other side of North Pole temperatures are colder,  the ice on Atlantic side is largely more densely compacted than the Pacific quadrant,  not so much compared to previous Septembers.

NASA EOSDIS below transect looks at the visually cloud free area within the pink area on September 10 JAXA above.  

   NASA EOSDIS September 11.   Observe significantly huge  "Goodbye Waves"  sea ice in final melting stages, we can confirm without much of a doubt that16 km grid 15% extent rule  calls all of the areas seen here covered with 100% sea ice.  However the JAXA colored map above gives a better representation at 6.25 km per grid and describes reality better than 10 km resolution  which is likely the daily JAXA numerical value:

       The 10 km grid random scan same area reveals no 14% sea ice coverage,  so it is all read as 100%. Even if water covers a grid area by 80%......  WD September 11, 2018

Again never seen before wide open water in area usually laced with thick sea ice

~WOW moment again,  2018 season is full of surprises
~Never seen before in history open water 100 nautical miles North of Ward Hunt Island

On this August 27 2018, yet another significant historical  moment,  wide open water 100 n.m. North  from the starting point  where most successful expeditions have trekked to the North Pole.  Never seen moment like this surely cause pause to experts:  

  Soon the new extreme sport will be kayaking towards the North Pole from Ward Hunt,  not skiing,  surely now made extremely tenuous.  WD August 29,2018

Message from planet Earth: look at the Poles

~Remaining 2018 Arctic sea ice pack looks strangely familiar:

Dancing with the winds sea ice, skillfully confuses extent numbers

~Misinterpreting freezing with moving

 NASA EOSDIS about centred 77 North 180 W August 20 to 27,  despite clouds we look at it move and compressing towards the right ,  then stop to only move and expand to the left,  it is a system generated melt stall,  ice was moving by anticyclone to the right,  an increasing in intensity cyclone displaces the pack to the opposite direction,  the ensuing result is this:

   The Peninsula sea ice with highest density (to the right),  moved where a lot of melting and compression has just occurred towards the left,  as such,  there will be apparent lower melt rates until the modest cyclone scattering will break the peninsula in 2.    WD August 27,2018

Slow Bye Bye of East Siberian ice peninsula is finally culminating

~ Yet, the JAXA numbers don't show this despite stunning image suggesting eminent disintegration

     What is left of the East Siberian sea ice peninsula once mighty at just past mid July :

....  Is a mere skeleton of former self:

Apparently August 24 to 25,  32,974 km2 vanished in a day,  while the new blue areas easily span more than 200,000 km2,  nevertheless,  the visual aspect is much more catastrophic than the numerical one....  While 4 km resolution makes 2018 #1,  at least in the NSIDC comparison graph given:

2018 is #1 lowest in extent compared with all years since 2014,  which I guess was the start of monitoring at 4 km grids. wd August 26 ,  2018

Slow melt rate appears on the verge to take a dive

~JAXA 45,000 km2 August 23-24 drop looks kind of smallish

  JAXA loop August 23-24 , 24 is with the darker sea ice areas,  has some very interesting aspects,  namely vast regions appearing to have much more open water,  but the drop was officially 45K.  However,   observe North of Wrangle Island vast area much larger than 100 K turning almost completely blue,  here is a good example of the 15% per 16 km square grid  rule confusing matters, 
but if the trend continues, these grids will eventually drop with ice content below 15%,  and cause quite a remarkable daily drop.  Which again will not be a huge area of  sea ice suddenly melting,  but would be the result from a long protracted melt and mixing process.  Even with this 15% rule,  the darkening of what is left of the other very large areas of the pack, signifying more open water,  didn't really show up with extent numbers,  therefore patience is required along with judgment when considering 2018 melt rates. WD August 25,2018

Excessively fluid pack along with clouds very difficult to assess

~But there are some events which are mind boggling
~Fluid movement is on all sides of pack with strong winds

 Canadian Arctic Archipelago coast was mainly closed on 13 August,  now the entire coast has opened up very rapidly in excess of 50 km wide at some points and about 1400 km long,  an area  in excess of 100,000 km2:

  Clouds make it very difficult to access exact area,  but I can see through most of it,  roughly giving:

   There are spots lesser than or more than this google earth polygon demarcation.  The speed of this opening indicates a lighter over all sea ice pack,  still laced with older sea ice, acting as sails moving the ice with any winds with ease.  WD August18,2018

Near 80 North super fast sea ice movement

~12 nautical miles a day is hardly dense pack ice speed
~Very fluid movement precedes rapid melting

August 15-16 2018 rapid movement of sea ice at about 80 degrees North 151 West, moving towards the NE. Look at biggest ice pan next to NASA worldview right hand lower corner box on 15th,  it moved 12 nautical miles in a day,  from experience of 2018 preceding ice now melted areas,  this kind of speed is a precursor to possible rapid melting,  because the ice pans,  especially the smaller ones,  are surrounded by water... wd August 16 2018

Gradual melt will eventually show up as massive one day drop

~North of East Siberian sea ice peninsula is turning into thousands of little ice Islands

~One day soon it will be nothing but water

~Incredible smashing and mixing is a good melting accelerator 

   August 5 to 14 2018 huge area of sea ice dwindling to extinction in a methodic mixing manner: 

  180 W 75 N sector was driven by steady High pressure which turned the ice slowly towards the warmest Bering sea waters,  not without a great deal of mechanical mixing,  in a few days, JAXA will depict this zone as open water even if there will still be  sea ice present, but less than 15% extent.  WD August 15 2018

Laptev sea surface temperatures bites big time

~The entire Arctic Ocean ice pack veers clockwise from counterclockwise
~This gives a misleading slowdown in melt numbers,  it follows a usual pattern of fast-slow-slow- fast melt cycle
~North of Laptev sea Goodbye Waves abound,  a sure sign of warm seas

The ease by which sea ice pack veers or backs,  clockwise or counterclockwise by pressure system winds is a sure sign of thinness,  always intermixed with older sea ice,  but over all lesser weight of the entire pack means less momentum keeping one direction longer:

   Not long ago,  the pack turned the other way,  July 31 to August 7 JAXA loop demonstrates the presence of a steady anticyclone over the Arctic Ocean.  During the earlier switchover,  sea ice daily melts slowed down,  or appeared so,  because of scattering rather than a temperature effect.

Laptev sea was open early,  had plenty of time to pick up solar rays,  the result is rapid 7 day sea lost easily identifiable by bountiful Goodbye Waves,  these are done by sea ice just about to disappear as water.   Here 44.5 nautical miles melted in 7 days direction North,  August 1 to 7.   A speed of 6.4 nautical miles a day.   

   Also pushed North is this Laptev warm sst's very next to CMC 50% pack extents.  There is no melting slowdown possible when so.  WD August 7 2018

Totally unfamiliar wide region of sea ice between North of Greenland and Ellesmere

~I have no explanation for this
~One thing for sure,  it was not air temperature driven
~Highly likely abnormal under sea ice ocean temperatures

  First we look at 2012:

  Quite normal sea ice in densest pack ice field even for August 5 2012, then  a very terrible year for sea ice,  now look at this:

   This August 5 2018 sea ice area seems awfully weak,  even ready to melt off completely.  All I know is that there is a tidal current going towards the Strait between Greenland and Ellesmere Island,  it usually has a semi-circular look about 1/10 the size of this area.   WD August 5 2018

6 years later, what about 80 degrees North?

~2012 all time minima melt is on the brink of being surpassed

~In fact 2012 Central Arctic Basin is almost the same as 2018

~What is left is not what matters,  what matters is at 80 degrees North

To date,  Canadian Arctic Archipelago has 250,000 Km2 more sea ice than 2012,  strangely,  given the onslaught of broken sea ice which invaded the area, Beaufort sea has the same extent,  but East Siberian has another 250,000 Km2 more.  What is left is the Central Arctic Basin,  with 2018 having slightly less sea ice extent than 2012.  The colours which matter on the following AMSR2 Google graphs are orange 2012,  olive green 2016 and black 2018:

   All said and done,  today 2018 is still technically #1 in lowest extent since East Siberian and CAA ice will at least shrink by 400,000 km2 come minima in mid September.  Today was the 2012 great cyclone anniversary date,  which violently stirred and mixed up already emaciated sea ice,  lets look at 80 degrees North:

     80 degrees North 157 West  is in worse shape in 2018, what matters is the greater open water signifying greater melting,  2012 had more thin ice left.  Again,  the measuring limitations given by the 15% extent rule may not show a great difference in extent numbers between these two seasons.   Nevertheless,  this type of sea ice rot emplies East Siberian sea will be eventually surrounded by open water, easing the quicker melting of the ice peninsula further to its North .  The quicker this ice   disappears the more certain 2018 will be #1 lowest.  WD August 5 2018

Monster hot sst from Pacific finishing off broken up sea ice extremely rapidly

~The damage was done my movement of sea ice,  the job of melting is finished off by warmer sst's.

    July 19-July 31 JAXA loop demonstrating the process of total disintegration of sea ice in the Pacific sector of the Pole,  with extreme rapidity.  We note lesser but significant melting everywhere else with open water. 

  Zoomed July 29-31:

  The East Siberian sea ice Peninsula (1.5 million km2 strong)  is in the process of completely disappearing,  when so looses cohesion, as a result,  sea ice scatters and nulls the extent numbers loss a bit,  only to be corrected when every pan of pack vanishes.  WD August 1, 2018

Atlantic front race to 85 North vs Pacific waters massacre

~Central Arctic Basin 2018 is #1 is lowest extent

~ Beaufort sea and CAA make up  400 K difference with 2012, while 2018 has 464, 000 km2 more sea ice than 12

~ Along with other peripheral seas, which will have near 0 extent come mid September,  2018 is technically #1 at the moment.  

   CMC reporting whopping +9 C sea surface temperatures in the Bering sea can only mean one thing:

  We note super fast melting conditions North of Bering sea,  with ripe conditions enhanced by a High pressure Gyre favouring compaction and flow of  extreme warm waters finishing off straggling sea ice pans.  On the Atlantic Front,  we see Fram Strait loosing sea ice rapidly due to no flow conditions, but also a race towards a 85N on the entire Atlantic sea ice shore line.  The NE passage is about to open first, equally as expected in April,  the NW passage is clogged with sea ice but should open partially much later. 

     What about the black spots appearing in waves on the JAXA animation above?  They are open water zones opening closing rapidly as captured 82 N 176 W:

   The JAXA dark spots indicate rapid movement of sea ice sometimes leaving open water gaps which may fill with rubble and slush,  is part of the same process detected North of Alaska about a month ago.  Rapid motion of sea ice may be interpreted as steady sea ice albedo until the slush turns to goodbye waves,  when the entire pack collapses rapidly as occurring North of Alaska at present.  WD July 30 2018

Vast 2018 region of Arctic Ocean sea ice in much worse shape than 2012

~Gyre area sea ice about to totally melt or simply move away very rapidly
~15% extent rule certainly favours 2012 as having similar sea ice extent than 2018 in same region.

July 26 2018 Gyre region sea ice is in a catastrophic state.  We can see the blue ocean overtaking the pristine white sea ice. 

2012 same date same place was in bad shape as well,  but not as terrible as 2018 deep in the Gyre zone.

A closer look:

  In all technicality 2018 has less sea ice than 2012 for a vast area,  but the 15% extent rule makes 2012 similar.   Hindsight being 20/20 ,  we did not know how bad 2012 was until a very strong
early August cyclone came through,  having the benefit of this history, we now know that 2018 is
very much going to overtake 2012 very soon,  at least in this region,  there should be not a lot of sea ice left come late September. WD July 27,2018

Current sea ice extent is getting close to be nearly equal to all time melt year

~After July 23 more than 200K drop,  on July 25 2018  there is a +421,497 Km2 difference in extent between 2018 and 2012.  

~There are ample reasons to believe that 2012 extent will be caught up soon

   2018 Canadian Arctic Archipelago has indeed the lasting ice imprint of very cold Upper Atmosphere as measured by vertical sun disk measurements,  there is no contradiction,  one area
of the Arctic may be quite cold while the majority of its lands and seas much warmer.   Each year varies,  2012 Northwest passage opened very early,  does not look so for 2018.

CAA current July 25 sea ice extent. 2018 trace is in black, 2012 light brown.  There is at least 200,000 km2 of ice to be gone come September/October minima.The current lag with 2012 is about 200K.  

   Record extent drops are primed North of Alaska,  July 22 to 25 JAXA loop suggests at least 200,000 km2 ready to vanish quite soon. 

   Chukchi sea rapid melting is partially masked by counterclockwise flow of sea ice doomed by very warm sea water next to Wrangle Island,  we note to the right,  East Siberian sea rapidly opening up,    not being replenished by Laptev Sea already widely ice free, East Siberian should have very swift drop in extent within next few days. WD July 26,2018