North Pole current sea ice as terrible as it can get in October 24 hour darkness

By far the poorest  state of  North Pole sea ice observed for October,  indicates a hellish icescape of badly broken up sea ice interspersed with myriad of leads with thin ice and open water.  

  The larger view NOAA IR acquired by CMC Oct 10 2016 14:18:20,  its cooling a bit,    this is what happens when densest pack start reforming to its former thicker ice state.  But this is one of the worse if not the worse shape sea ice has ever been on this date of the year.  WD October 10,2016

Sea surface temperature -1.8 C is a thermal balance construct needing very cold air in especially warmer seas.

Barrow Strait Nunavut Canada

    -3 C surface air in light winds gave accretion stalling leaving brand new sea ice a darker look,  in effect to stay new, vulnerable to any wind event.    Sea water temperature warmed to -1.5 C,  a jump of +0.3 C since yesterday.  Today's lesson highlights a changed thermal balance,  because air temperature has increased substantially from -12 to -3 C.  This offered sea water column to warm the underlying top water layer.  As a result freezing has stopped:

Open sea water easily doesn't freeze at -3 C surface temperatures.  Especially because it is at -1.5 C,  the vast majority of ice formed at colder normal -1.8 C.  Cooler surface temperatures will eventually cause top sea water to be at -1.8 C.  But for this to happen,  it usually requires sustained cooling at -11 C,  because the water column has been warmed all summer. Once top of water hits -1.8 C it solidifies.  Afterwards, further cooling is needed as sea ice thickens,  in order to always achieve the needed  -1.8 C, otherwise further down sea warmth increases the top water layer temp.  High Arctic warm heat source in October is usually from the sea,  therefore a tendency for sea water to maintain its column temperature needs to be vanquished by extremely cold air.

        Coincidentally, warming of the Canadian Arctic Archipelago came from the North! Today in darkness around the North Pole,  a similar play in physics occurred:

     CMC October 5 18z 2016,  surface air temperatures over the Arctic Ocean were extraordinarily +15 C or more above normal,  air temperatures so high,  even in darkness affect the thermal balance at sea level, especially bringing out the nature of the new sea ice recently formed.  Many sea surface water temperatures locations  jumped from -2 to -1 C:

CMC SST readings September 5 2016,  Arctic Ocean sea surface temperatures warmed along with air surface temperatures,  a well insulated  sea surface with thick sea ice on top would not have reacted  so readily,  but has done the same as like further South in Barrow Strait Nunavut Canada.  WD Oct 5 , 2016

New sea ice starts from 3 important concurring factors: -1.8 C water, little or no sea waves and colder than -11 C surface temperatures

     Artistic sea ice made a giant polar bear!  But today 74.5 N 94.5 W was first sight of grey ice with frazil.  Just in front of the ice bear you can see 2 types of sea ice,   the -11 C type, (darker)  and the less salty water type whiter (bottom of photo) which froze between Multi year ice pans last week.  Overnight South Cornwallis Island temperatures varied between -11 and -12 C,  a wall of multiyear sea ice blocked wave action to the Bay  causing its surface water to be mirror calm,  and the sea water was measured finally at -1.8 C.     The 3 combined always produce frazil then grey ice:

From the Bay shore two different sea ice forming mixed with submerged snow.  After one week,  the mainly from uncharacteristic 12 mm High Arctic rain near beach fresher water tasting sea ice,  has not accreted a great deal, remained rubbery and broke easily:   

One week old  sea ice from mainly rainfall, is extremely fragile brakes on contact.  Can't carry any significant weight,  is rubbery,  very much appearing like sea ice further North near North Pole. 

It formed in much warmer temperatures.

      Later today,  temperatures warmed further and a lot of the grey ice seemed to have melted ,  there is an apparent thermal balance,  where as,  colder than -11 C  surface air seems imperative for sea ice to form.WD October 4, 2016   

Extraordinary season continues with exemplary exceptional summer clouds in October at 80 N latitude.

   Is it because of the low sun elevation ? No,  the clouds portrayed here are simply outstandingly big and high.   With tops 57,000 feet high according to the sun shadow.

     MSC NOAA Vis capture October  040000z These high clouds were ahead of a small Cyclone 996 mb,  no one was there  over the Arctic Ocean to see them,  here we can judge by there shadow that they were indeed very high likely Towering Cumulus clouds.    Amazing! WD October 4 2016

Mishmash new fresher water sea ice floating snow collage showing its stripes of open water

As the shadow of the Earth casts its yearly Polar winter foment, in darkness, sea ice has never been so chaotic,  instigated by warmth despite extreme huge dispersion events:

 By now, the likely lower sea surface saline surface froze despite warmer than -1.8 C sea water.  

This causes a rubbery thin not so salty ice,  easily deformable,  a paradox is created,  the warmer sea 

has a temporary roof which opens at times adding to the stable Arctic cyclonic prevalence about.  A positive feedback in tandem with clouds keeping winter to start over the continents.  This onto itself changes the weather Circulation for the entire Northern Hemisphere.WD October 1, 2016  

Chaos after the big de-coiling wave..

    There are no more uni-directional flowing of this sea ice area centered about 81.3 N 170.8 E.

Sea ice is moving SSE in the right upper corner,  towards SE at center and Westwards on the top left hand corner. There is a whole lot of open water.  Thin clouds mask the true nature of sea ice hidden most times. But the easy sea ice deformation processes is obvious,  of apparently a glue of very thin sea ice,  slush or floating snow between surviving older sea ice pans.   Surface temperatures were mild on the 30th,  about -6 C,  at this temp sea ice doesn't form easily if sea water is warmer than -1.8 C.  However,  if the nature of top surface sea water is not so salty,  it can freeze,  but not accrete rapidly enough to slow the ice movement, as apparent here.  Deformations as seen above,  wouldn't happen so quickly if any of the new sea ice was thick.  

   JAXA extent replication of the same area,  pixels do not mimic the open water areas.
I would expect the new ice to thicken when surface temperatures get colder.  But the open water
areas are not only confined to this High Arctic area of North Pole to North Siberian sector.  WD Sep30,2016

Looking for 2016 Minima Sea ice dispersion "Big Bang" moment

 Impressive  large mass of de-coiling sea ice ^^^^^^^^^^likely in tandem with winds occurred when minima was called (September 9) ,  this huge mass moved at 15 nautical miles a day,  extremely rapid.  It may be the moment triggering an unstoppable  sea ice expansion momentum still happening to this day.  It occurred either September 7 or 8.  A fascinating moment needing more study. WD September 29, 2016

Densest pack changes flow direction with ease, at the weakest wind direction change

     The Northwards Bound tracking Pack Ice changed direction,  Southwards on September 26:

 CMC september 27 00z,  a very modest Low pressure system is responsible.    Temperatures about this area are -5 to -6 C.

   

  The Crush Southwards reveals what is within the gaps,  mainly a mishmash of pulverized older sea ice,  floating snow and may be a hint of new ice as well,  but if present wafer thin .  The winds easily pushed open water to show.  WDSep27,2016

Raining during an Arctic heat wave, when snow use to reign.

Today's -0.8 C sea surface temperature  was in a Bay loaded with multiyear ice. notice how clean Arctic Sea water is.  Temperature nearer the surface was +1.4 C,  concurrent official weather reading 67 meters ASL +2 C,  8 degrees Centigrade above the average daily Maximum.   With rain:

Ravaged by waves multiyear ice suffers another melt period,  The bigger pans had melt Ponds and turned green:

The true colour of sea ice is revealed once snow cover melted.   The larger pans here are about 2 meters thick,  Arctic Ocean survivors of the summers melt.  A melt pond water temperature was +0.3 C.    Beach ridge top small pebble layer temperature was +2 C,  near where there was water same layer was below zero C.

   Very late September rain can be heard here,  current way above average temperatures are part of a late freeze up trend since 1998,  another El-Nino year all be it smaller ,  2012,   had much later warmer temperatures as well.  The larger older multiyear  ice definitely cools sea water and air,  this invasion of displaced sea ice was unlike 2012 when the Pack was more consolidated and denser on the NW frontier of the Canadian Arctic Archipelago.    2016 had extreme de-coiled sea ice starting when the Transpolar Stream Current lost most of its sea ice in August. WD September 25,2016

Dense pack keeps on dispersing with leads widening in very warm temperatures.

     Displacement of densest pack ice (83.5 N 111 W)  has accelerated!   From 3 to 4.4 nautical miles Northwards a day.  Expansion between the leads has almost increased universally as well.   Long going, de-coiling momentum synergistically combined with the winds on top of warming temperatures and ever so present non amenable to freezing sea water.  It would be a mistake to infer that extent has increased because of greater coverage of sea ice.  Surface temperatures are -1 to -2 C,  again this event calls for better analysis tools.  The correct interpretation is that there is more open water per grid,  thus less sea ice.


More towards Wrangel Island Russia,  where there is a substantial presence of water the velocity is 6 nautical miles a day towards open water:

   A strongly frozen pack ice can hardly move more than 2 nautical miles a day unless there is a very good reason otherwise,  a blizzard with very strong winds or a sudden gash of open water caused by huge pressure variations.  What we see here is a strong expansion by dispersion,  the gaps between the packs is equally expansive.  The first 3 days Westward displacement of 6 nautical miles a day met with a wind direction change on the 4th day,  these de-coiling expansions are one of a kind,  likely to be common over next subsequent autumns.  WD  Sep 24-25 2016

 









 WD September 24,2016

Late September heat wave 74.7 North 95 West

Listen at melting sea ice so late in September with temperature 8 degrees above the daily maximum average.  

   At 67 meters above sea level official temperature was +2 C,  at sea level a little higher.  Sea water temp was -0.5 C despite teh Bay being full with colder Multiyear sea ice.  Black rock shore ridge inside temperature was +.6 C.

   Northwest Passage Invasion of pack ice once moving east westwards towards Baffin Bay,  now trapped by strong Southerlies on the South shore of Cornwallis Island.  wd September24,2016

2016 is a dispersed melt season with significant differences with a more compact 2012 within densest remaining pack ice.

    2016 smack where the densest ice should be has had a lot of open water.

  2012 same location slightly to the North of above (because of clouds),  de-coiled sea ice with less open water.

    2012-2016 83.5 N 155 W   again more open water for 2016.


        How exactly do we judge melt seasons when one is dispersed and the other one is compacted?
It would be wiser by sea ice area:

 If we look at this sea ice area graph,   the minima of 2016 is nearly equal to 2012.  That is much more accurate than extent metrics.    The significance of all this,  compact years use to be the norm,  since 2012,  dispersed sea ice at minima has become prominent.    Therefore 2016 minimum sea ice is very close to 2012, either way,  just below or just above, this is important to conceptualize,  a simple concentration figure would lay away a lot of confusion though.WDSeptember 23,2016.  

Snow or Grey ice or a mix of both? + Rapid displacements at minima.

  September 21  location                             VVVVVVV

 I calculate 30.6 nautical miles displacement in 5 days,  note ^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^  big pan on September 16 just above (86.57N 109.29E).   It travelled on average more than 6 nautical miles a day,  very rapid rate AGAINST the Transpolar Stream Current.  It means that there is a lot of grey ice and floating snow between the broken packs .   If grey areas was new sea ice they would completely cover the gaps,    But if it is floating snow or grey ice the leeward side would be full while the windward (towards the bottom of this page) open,  the open water locations change so it is likely floating snow which changes in texture with time and exposure.   Sea ice would set easier on the windward because pack ice offers no waves and a wind shade facilitating freeze-up more.

83 N 112W smack in the middle of densest but de-coiled pack ice, with temperatures between -10 to -17 C ,  still has open water (by movement) with a daily displacement of 3 nautical miles a day, a very rapid rate for dense pack indeed.  But with new sea ice,  recognized by drifting snow on top of it.  

Meanwhile near Franz Josef lands:

      The flow is equally rapid seen by open leads amongst loose pummeled pack.  The Goodbye Waves are less expansive than before,  but there are many of them.  WD September 22, 2016

+0.5 C cloudy weather melts submerged snow, but reappears after overnight snow showers

A day has past  and some ice multi-year ice has moved away along with much less floating/submerged snow.  

Company,  2 Polar bears  and partner in crime fox were just here.  

Yesterday's bergy bit is no longer surrounded by floating snow.  

   Upper left floating snow remains between small multiyear ice gaps,  sea water is colder  there.  September 19 at sea level was +0.5 C briefly,  this was enough to melt away snow rapidly even in -1 C sea water.  September 20 (today) overnight snowfall covered the Bay again with floating snow.  wd September 20,2016

JAXA Density jumps

 September 17 2016 JAXA vast great expanse of open water finally showed quite well,  and is comparable to sat picture:

But It did bot last:

                         JAXA depictions September 15-17-18  top to bottom.  Wild daily variations.
Yet satellite photos show vaster dispersion day by day.    WD September 19,2016

Vast expansion of scattered sea ice does not seem to record open water extent gains numerically, or it likely snowed a whole lot.

~Snow showers can confuse data to look like sea ice but there are some differences.

     First off,  JAXA extent data kept showing some expansion less one day since the almost official minima,  this is confirmed on satellite pictures,  but sea ice is scattering thinner,  eventually dispersion will show up in the data,  extent expansion should stall,  even despite the 15% rules:

    Vast expansion of scattered sea ice towards Central Russia from Pole.   Infers also that open sea water is expanding,  but JAXA daily extent data numbers does not seem to collapse daily expansiveness,  rather mostly the contrary.  There is,  however,  a very good explanation:

   Invasion of what is left of the Multiyear ice shows striking image,  the top sea ice is smooth the bottom ravaged by -1 C water.  Top sea ice layer has less salt and would be the last to go.  But this bergybit is surrounded by what appears to be smooth sea ice,  look carefully,  it is submerged fresh snow for the most part some segments have the snow sticking above water level.

   Fresh snow on lower tide sea shore gradually submerging in deeper water.

    Submerged snow differs from grey ice in colour and texture,  it mostly appears smooth.

   this years icescape of huge areas of Arctic Ocean broken sea ice makes the accurate measurement of sea ice  even more difficult.  Ice floes smother the wind and wave action moving the snow to pile up or  disperse.  In 2012,  Cryosphere today data recorded a vast expanse of submerged snow as sea ice during calm winds. Likewise 2016 most certainly has had expanding sea ice numbers earlier on account,  in part, of snow fall.  Summer/Autumn Arctic 2016 atmosphere has very moist air.WD September 18, 2016  

Melting continues 8 days after minima ; A contradiction? Or a missing sea ice to sea water ratio calculation

           The melting continues,  despite minima almost declared formally,  there is a lot of moist air about the entire Arctic,  clouds are very thick layered with rain turning to snow near ground in some parts.  There are at least 3  important Cyclones vicinity or over sea ice,  one is almost quasi-stationary North of Beaufort, laying steady between water and sea ice.  This does not come as a surprise,  the JAXA depiction here of sea is a lot less solid pack than the replication suggests,  there are plenty of warm spot sources keeping the cyclones steady.  Cooling is mainly happening over the  Canadian Arctic Archipelago,  not a surprise as well,   it was foreseen here long ago,  but there is a lot of snow falling from cyclonic activity compounding a warm cold heat engine complex.    

     Since we can't actually 'see' through the clouds without radar images,  we need better visualizations which may in great part explain why melting and extent drop is happening.  Enhanced visuals offer also a qualitative description of state of sea ice,  they can be compared from year to year with the holistic approach rather than simply numeric.  The danger in strictly oversimplifying the true nature of the icescape can't be overstated,  we have here an example which is rife with confusion because we don't appreciate the truer image.  WD September 17, 2016