New sea ice starts from 3 important concurring factors: -1.8 C water, little or no sea waves and colder than -11 C surface temperatures

     Artistic sea ice made a giant polar bear!  But today 74.5 N 94.5 W was first sight of grey ice with frazil.  Just in front of the ice bear you can see 2 types of sea ice,   the -11 C type, (darker)  and the less salty water type whiter (bottom of photo) which froze between Multi year ice pans last week.  Overnight South Cornwallis Island temperatures varied between -11 and -12 C,  a wall of multiyear sea ice blocked wave action to the Bay  causing its surface water to be mirror calm,  and the sea water was measured finally at -1.8 C.     The 3 combined always produce frazil then grey ice:

From the Bay shore two different sea ice forming mixed with submerged snow.  After one week,  the mainly from uncharacteristic 12 mm High Arctic rain near beach fresher water tasting sea ice,  has not accreted a great deal, remained rubbery and broke easily:   

One week old  sea ice from mainly rainfall, is extremely fragile brakes on contact.  Can't carry any significant weight,  is rubbery,  very much appearing like sea ice further North near North Pole. 

It formed in much warmer temperatures.

      Later today,  temperatures warmed further and a lot of the grey ice seemed to have melted ,  there is an apparent thermal balance,  where as,  colder than -11 C  surface air seems imperative for sea ice to form.WD October 4, 2016   

Extraordinary season continues with exemplary exceptional summer clouds in October at 80 N latitude.

   Is it because of the low sun elevation ? No,  the clouds portrayed here are simply outstandingly big and high.   With tops 57,000 feet high according to the sun shadow.

     MSC NOAA Vis capture October  040000z These high clouds were ahead of a small Cyclone 996 mb,  no one was there  over the Arctic Ocean to see them,  here we can judge by there shadow that they were indeed very high likely Towering Cumulus clouds.    Amazing! WD October 4 2016

Mishmash new fresher water sea ice floating snow collage showing its stripes of open water

As the shadow of the Earth casts its yearly Polar winter foment, in darkness, sea ice has never been so chaotic,  instigated by warmth despite extreme huge dispersion events:

 By now, the likely lower sea surface saline surface froze despite warmer than -1.8 C sea water.  

This causes a rubbery thin not so salty ice,  easily deformable,  a paradox is created,  the warmer sea 

has a temporary roof which opens at times adding to the stable Arctic cyclonic prevalence about.  A positive feedback in tandem with clouds keeping winter to start over the continents.  This onto itself changes the weather Circulation for the entire Northern Hemisphere.WD October 1, 2016  

Chaos after the big de-coiling wave..

    There are no more uni-directional flowing of this sea ice area centered about 81.3 N 170.8 E.

Sea ice is moving SSE in the right upper corner,  towards SE at center and Westwards on the top left hand corner. There is a whole lot of open water.  Thin clouds mask the true nature of sea ice hidden most times. But the easy sea ice deformation processes is obvious,  of apparently a glue of very thin sea ice,  slush or floating snow between surviving older sea ice pans.   Surface temperatures were mild on the 30th,  about -6 C,  at this temp sea ice doesn't form easily if sea water is warmer than -1.8 C.  However,  if the nature of top surface sea water is not so salty,  it can freeze,  but not accrete rapidly enough to slow the ice movement, as apparent here.  Deformations as seen above,  wouldn't happen so quickly if any of the new sea ice was thick.  

   JAXA extent replication of the same area,  pixels do not mimic the open water areas.
I would expect the new ice to thicken when surface temperatures get colder.  But the open water
areas are not only confined to this High Arctic area of North Pole to North Siberian sector.  WD Sep30,2016

Looking for 2016 Minima Sea ice dispersion "Big Bang" moment

 Impressive  large mass of de-coiling sea ice ^^^^^^^^^^likely in tandem with winds occurred when minima was called (September 9) ,  this huge mass moved at 15 nautical miles a day,  extremely rapid.  It may be the moment triggering an unstoppable  sea ice expansion momentum still happening to this day.  It occurred either September 7 or 8.  A fascinating moment needing more study. WD September 29, 2016

Densest pack changes flow direction with ease, at the weakest wind direction change

     The Northwards Bound tracking Pack Ice changed direction,  Southwards on September 26:

 CMC september 27 00z,  a very modest Low pressure system is responsible.    Temperatures about this area are -5 to -6 C.

   

  The Crush Southwards reveals what is within the gaps,  mainly a mishmash of pulverized older sea ice,  floating snow and may be a hint of new ice as well,  but if present wafer thin .  The winds easily pushed open water to show.  WDSep27,2016

Raining during an Arctic heat wave, when snow use to reign.

Today's -0.8 C sea surface temperature  was in a Bay loaded with multiyear ice. notice how clean Arctic Sea water is.  Temperature nearer the surface was +1.4 C,  concurrent official weather reading 67 meters ASL +2 C,  8 degrees Centigrade above the average daily Maximum.   With rain:

Ravaged by waves multiyear ice suffers another melt period,  The bigger pans had melt Ponds and turned green:

The true colour of sea ice is revealed once snow cover melted.   The larger pans here are about 2 meters thick,  Arctic Ocean survivors of the summers melt.  A melt pond water temperature was +0.3 C.    Beach ridge top small pebble layer temperature was +2 C,  near where there was water same layer was below zero C.

   Very late September rain can be heard here,  current way above average temperatures are part of a late freeze up trend since 1998,  another El-Nino year all be it smaller ,  2012,   had much later warmer temperatures as well.  The larger older multiyear  ice definitely cools sea water and air,  this invasion of displaced sea ice was unlike 2012 when the Pack was more consolidated and denser on the NW frontier of the Canadian Arctic Archipelago.    2016 had extreme de-coiled sea ice starting when the Transpolar Stream Current lost most of its sea ice in August. WD September 25,2016

Dense pack keeps on dispersing with leads widening in very warm temperatures.

     Displacement of densest pack ice (83.5 N 111 W)  has accelerated!   From 3 to 4.4 nautical miles Northwards a day.  Expansion between the leads has almost increased universally as well.   Long going, de-coiling momentum synergistically combined with the winds on top of warming temperatures and ever so present non amenable to freezing sea water.  It would be a mistake to infer that extent has increased because of greater coverage of sea ice.  Surface temperatures are -1 to -2 C,  again this event calls for better analysis tools.  The correct interpretation is that there is more open water per grid,  thus less sea ice.


More towards Wrangel Island Russia,  where there is a substantial presence of water the velocity is 6 nautical miles a day towards open water:

   A strongly frozen pack ice can hardly move more than 2 nautical miles a day unless there is a very good reason otherwise,  a blizzard with very strong winds or a sudden gash of open water caused by huge pressure variations.  What we see here is a strong expansion by dispersion,  the gaps between the packs is equally expansive.  The first 3 days Westward displacement of 6 nautical miles a day met with a wind direction change on the 4th day,  these de-coiling expansions are one of a kind,  likely to be common over next subsequent autumns.  WD  Sep 24-25 2016

 









 WD September 24,2016

Late September heat wave 74.7 North 95 West

Listen at melting sea ice so late in September with temperature 8 degrees above the daily maximum average.  

   At 67 meters above sea level official temperature was +2 C,  at sea level a little higher.  Sea water temp was -0.5 C despite teh Bay being full with colder Multiyear sea ice.  Black rock shore ridge inside temperature was +.6 C.

   Northwest Passage Invasion of pack ice once moving east westwards towards Baffin Bay,  now trapped by strong Southerlies on the South shore of Cornwallis Island.  wd September24,2016

2016 is a dispersed melt season with significant differences with a more compact 2012 within densest remaining pack ice.

    2016 smack where the densest ice should be has had a lot of open water.

  2012 same location slightly to the North of above (because of clouds),  de-coiled sea ice with less open water.

    2012-2016 83.5 N 155 W   again more open water for 2016.


        How exactly do we judge melt seasons when one is dispersed and the other one is compacted?
It would be wiser by sea ice area:

 If we look at this sea ice area graph,   the minima of 2016 is nearly equal to 2012.  That is much more accurate than extent metrics.    The significance of all this,  compact years use to be the norm,  since 2012,  dispersed sea ice at minima has become prominent.    Therefore 2016 minimum sea ice is very close to 2012, either way,  just below or just above, this is important to conceptualize,  a simple concentration figure would lay away a lot of confusion though.WDSeptember 23,2016.