Huge sea ice area is on the Razors edge, between water and survival

                                 

There is a sea ice lake,  the size of  Lake Superior, 85N 135E,  the remnant of GAC3 again dispersing ice at Centre of this Cyclone.  The Wrangel Island ice bridge seems on the verge of total collapse.   The other, towards Laptev sea,  only has less than 1/3 of its pack apparently solid.  The Atlantic Front appears to be moving North.  There is significant extent numbers consisting of 80% or more of seawater,  which would count as 100% sea ice.

  The entire Eurasian sector of the Pole is very fluid by the presence of a lot of open water and has had a significantly changed icescape especially towards Bering Sea in 10 days.   More movement of sea ice is within denser sea ice areas in the North Atlantic sector:

  Daily Sea ice with open water movements are visible enough despite partial cloudiness,  some areas have modest displacements, some appear steady,  this water and ice displacements affects the look on the JAXA map above. WD August 25, 2016

Goodbye waves lack of geometric continuity, drastically different than melting Fram Strait sea ice

    Goodbye Waves,  not showing on JAXA at all, congrats to AMSR2 people having fantastic banzai uber precision,  have shown remarkable geometric contortions in Fram Strait,  all while not readily being identifiable from one day to the next.    Point your mouse cursor on small ice pans and note their lack of motion very unlike the Gwaves, fascinating.  WDAugust 23,2016

North Pole Sea ice: what we can see 2016 is bad, 2013 visually worse, but 2016 is it

     2013 summer was mystically confusing,  2016 more straightforward,  at first glance 2016 here appears lesser North Pole affected than 2013 on August 22.  But AMSR2; "The Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer 2" captured otherwise:

   Here we fall into the 15% sea ice minimum extent per grid delusion, which in effect even the best system does not capture the holistic picture, by set of standard rules. We must always combine all data sources possible to obtain the holistic construct to have a better understanding of reality. Unlike 2013, 2016 exceeded the 85% threshold for open water. 2013 had much more ice density despite North Pole area pack Ice being flooded with open water, perhaps if the grid was made smaller, 2013 would show up somewhat worse than historically presented. WD august 23,2016

    

Compaction vs scattering, sea ice movement favours some extent gains on the leeward side until spreading gets water to be prominent.

   August 20-21 JAXA sea ice extent map,  has a particular feature of interest.  Sea ice extent drop was largely diminished on 21 august,  despite larger sea water areas.  Note the rotation of the remainder ice pack. Notice stable sea ice shores on the wind compaction side,  but the leeward side is scattered and badly broken,  there is no ice to stop movement but sea water,  the ice spreads out and gains overall extent amidst water not exceeding 85% coverage per grid.  Test this out by placing your mouse cursor on the leeward and windward shore lines.  There are significant gains in extent with badly broken up sea ice vs compacted areas almost apparently not rotating counterclockwise.  Extent figures will eventually drop much further when the scattering isolates the loosened ice pans further for melting in warmer water.  WD August 21,2016

Towards the left, captures file.

~"to the right" of wind direction-   -+ sea ice dispersion is not easily captured.
~ here we have "to the left"  compaction by GAC2

   Despite clouds  large ice pans were moving to the centre of GAC2 2016.   Winds go from top to bottom of frame.  Located just NW of Banks Island Canada,   Sea ice is converging towards centre of the Cyclone.  WDAugust21,2016

2016 signature characteristic: Sea ice floes not moving very fast

   JAXA latest 44,840 km2 apparently daily drop of August 20,  did not come as a surprise, a new GAC seen here elegant and spinning a storm,  lets call it GAC2,  is relishing the temperature contrasts between open water and sea ice air.  This NOAA satellite capture,  4 hours apart from the first frame (1450-1856UTC),  shows an intense see-through cyclone,  see-through because it was  largely over sea ice while dragging extremely slowly a lot of loose floes readily available, you can notice the largest ones barely moving by placing your mouse cursor over them.  This has been a main feature of 2016 season,  the Gyre current has been stubbornly opposite to the winds often,  even very strong winds.  But there is a daily movement at variance with winds and other geophysical motion vectors nevertheless, largely captured on JAXA maps featured almost daily here.  Today,  North of Beaufort open water is getting more sea ice, not broken up the same way as with GAC1.   Therefore the extent rate slow down,  a signal from a weather circulation variation,  what comes next is another huge drop.WDAugust 21,2016

Challenge to #1 minima, Sea Water conquering by dividing, fraying sea ice at the edges

   There is a huge amount of scattered shattered sea ice,  nearly about 1/3 of the remaining pack has loose fluid  cover,  if it all goes to water,  minima would be a dead heat contest with 2012.   It is no longer a top 3 year,  but currently it is within top 2,  2016 is in virtually same extent tie to 2007 as I write.  The Wrangel Island panhandle is almost completely frayed,  and should all melt in the coming weeks.  The sea water lakes near the Pole can only expand further from a significantly new Cyclone to come.  Extent drops will soon be all time highest for days.  August 18 84,635 km2 loss is only second to 2015.    This brings the matter of autumnal cooling,  which no doubt will arrive delayed due to all the open water everywhere.  This greater area of sea water has profound implications to Arctic temperatures,  the making of winter itself should be later.  wd august 19,2016

2nd day GAC, North Pole situation looks more open than ever

~Sea ice rotation "to the right" of winds,  does not show up so well,  scattering seems more isobaric
~ Melt rates vary in steps associated with Low pressure movement.

CMC GAC yesterday august 16 at 18 UTC

CMC August 17 18 UTC surface analysis.  981 mb situated 82N 150E not moving Southwards anymore from this time ,  at 00 UTC the centre was 82N 155E, 983 mb.  This means that a new batch of sea ice was broken up further and or at different locations since yesterday.  Note the isobars,  and look at the rotation of the entire sea ice pack carefully:

JAXA   Map Clearly shows very little outward dispersions,  but very much sea ice movement following  Isobaric lines more closely.  The centre of the Cyclone stayed long enough at 86N to cause extensive water zone not readily filling up with scattered ice. You can even notice the isobaric lines etched in sea ice just South of the Pole towards Alaska and Bering Strait.   The new Low pressure centre has dragged a new batch of sea ice along the  Ostrov Komsomolets Eastern ice bridge shore to cover open water, this accounts for a reduction in  extent daily drop to 73,373 km2 (3rd greatest melt for aug 17 since 2002).  Note the great scattering of sea ice along Wrangel Island 'pan handle' Eastern shores,  surely will give great extent drops in the coming days.  The rotation of the entire pack also affects the Atlantic sea ice front,  bringing sea ice a top exposed open water.    Finally if the Trans Polar Stream has a chance to resume,  there will be a lot of open water at the North Pole come this minima. WD August 18,2016

1st GAC summer 2016 preliminary effects

~  Following scattering slow down,  today's extent drop is the largest in August 16 history (2002-2016)  109,341 km2.
~  Rotation of entire sea ice pack appears to be counterclockwise.
~  Low pressure centre still not at the Pole, most of yesterdays sea lakes vanished by strong winds.
~ Cyclone centre expanded near adjoining sea water areas.

       The Cyclone Centre was about 85N 180W Longitude all day,   it expanded the open water there quite dramatically,  and this is not finished expanding:

      Most August 15 great lakes creations by smaller Low were "closed"  by wind movement away from the centre of the new Cyclone.  However there is far larger opening at 85 N than the day prior.


     The Cyclone seems to have affected the entire remaining sea ice pack:

     The Pack From Fram Strait to Banks Island Canada seems rotating counter clockwise.

     The rotation was also captured by AMSR2:

               The counterclockwise rotation of the entire pack has doomed the Wrangel Island sea ice panhandle much quicker, warmer sea water is about to seriously invade the Laptev sea region as well.
   Wherever the cyclone centre will remain steady,  there will be wider open water,  ECMWF seems to place this cyclone away from North Pole towards East Siberian Sea.   So it seems the  Pole area was spared,  for now,  from even more greater open water as never seen before.  WD August17,2016

Expanding North Pole Sea lakes, from a smaller Low prior to amalgamation with GAC 2016

     The expansion of open sea water at the North Pole has started by the older Low which deepened just before it merged prior to 18 utc with the GAC of summer 2016.  This expansion was expected,  but not quite like captured by AMSR2.

CMC Monday 15 00z Surface analysis of QS Quasi Stationary Low just South of the Pole 

The smaller Low 984 mb did a lot of expansion,  leaves to the imagination what the bigger one will do.    The proximity of the Pole has never had so much open water. wd August 15,2016 

Great movement Eastward by latest GAC and predecessors

   A small opening displaying Wrangel island ice bridge has been shrinking and compressing,  even
Goodbye Waves are interestingly bunched up against the ice edge,  either by recent past cyclones and in particular the latest one currently shaping up the icescape further.WDAug15,2016

Sea ice moved away from latest major Low pressure Centre

Latest  880 mb Cyclone was right over Laptev sea yesterday.  This is not a see through cyclone,  rather moderate to strong, we can only see its after effects once passed.  For better understanding of over sea ice floes interactions we must look at just prior sea ice movements.   

East of Franz Joseph Lands,  Sea Ice was mainly moving South.

    Notice near Ostrov Komsomolets likely Southwards moving ice but melting,  leaving a stable but badly shattered ice front with Goodbye Waves.

   In the wake of passage of new 980 mb cyclone centre, East of Ostrov Komsomolets reversal of flow direction , note the reduction in Goodbye Waves numbers and Northwards sea ice displacement.   August 15 winds are blowing  Southeastwards,  the main body of ice did not move in that direction,  but rather away from Low pressure centre. wdAugust15,2016

Sliding Sea Ice; Recent sea water lakes near the North Pole made bigger by small Cyclone

~Preceding a mega lake at the Pole coming in a few days


   If Atmospheric pressure drops substantially,  sea level rises by not much,  up to 63 cm ,  but that should be enough to make even sea ice to slide downwards (tidal timing may make the sliding a bit interesting).  Gravity rules us all,  big and small, all things conform,  a recent small 988 mb Low now in the North Pole CAA-Greenland quadrant  is preceding a stronger one, but its effect on fragile looser sea ice left its imprint:

  This small see through 988 mb Low moving from East to West just South of the Pole (towards the Atlantic),  apparently innocent looking and minding its regular business, caused some damage to an already very fragile Central Arctic Basin unraveling, as I write,  sea ice:

August 11-12 AMSR2 Sequence enlarged and zoomed  show a disturbance in sea ice consolidation in a mere day,  especially enlargement of a sea water lakes (surrounded by sea ice).  This was done with a weak Low,  now we will see what a more than moderate 970 mb will do,  highly likely clearing the Pole as never seen before.  wdAugust13,2016

Scant near North Pole visuals; sea ice is badly broken up towards the Atlantic Front.

     For august 11,  we only have 2016,  2014 and 2013 with clear enough skies.  We know that 2016 is badly broken up on the North Atlantic quadrant of the Pole all the way to 88 North within the area of 00 Longitude  along the Trans Polar Stream.   2014 looked like solid consolidation in comparison. Much more broken with open sea water than  2013,  which always was an interesting year.    2016 has had great sea ice volume losses towards the Atlantic,  not necessarily showing well with the numbers. This area of sea ice has very serious implications with Central Arctic Basin consolidation,  if open water dilutes further this sea ice, it would mean more unstable situation leading for more massive losses or melting.   WDAug12,2016

Atlantic Front: substantial evidence of massive melting, 'goodbye' waves a plenty

All along the North Atlantic sea ice front,  about 1200 Kilometres long,  there are numerous new 'Goodbye' waves,  sure evidence of recent massive melting.  From Fram Strait,  to North of Spitsbergen to beyond Franz Josef lands,  as seen here in our roving NASA EOSDIS shots.  Although the newish extended sea ice front line position has recently expanded and appears  more or less stable, that is an illusion,  the sea ice melts just as fast as it touches warmer water.  The end result is a great loss of sea ice.  Assume Southwards sea ice movement a modest fluid 2 kilometres an hour ,  about 48 kilometres a day melt along apparently a steady front,  potentially 60,000 km2 a day loss is possible, without actual remote sensing detection. WDAugust10 2016.

Expansion and dilution at once, nature is playing games with our eyes

    While extent drops have recently been lesser,  the melt is just as strong:

Looking at JAXA results,  there has been an expansion of sea ice about 120,000 Km2,  on the North Atlantic front.  As reported here,   there is a great deal of daily melting along that front.  It can be readily identified by comparing when the front was quiet on July 26,  now look at Aug 9 map.  The entire front is battered by the melting (black broken ice zones),  but the flow continues Southwards, nevertheless  right into very warm sea water .   In the mean time,  the CAB is diluting more rapidly leading the way for further water expansion on the Pacific side of the North Pole, which is awfully close to wide open water areas.  Holistically speaking this melt is as bad as it got at this time of the season.  WD Aug7,2016

Atlantic front great movement, super melting trap

  It did not take long for the real Arctic Ocean currents to be re-energized by favourable weather circulation,  there is a mini dipole at the other end of sea ice,  the Trans Polar Stream and main GAC Gyre appear almost full force.  As a result the Atlantic front, seen here, is expanding right into a trap of warm sea water.  With respect to Extent numbers,  they may seem less due to this vast expansion,    but robust they will be in the long run. wdAug7,2016

Individuals always melt away to darkness.

Fram Strait layered Goodbye waves join the ether of the sea.  Rapidly melting sea ice bounces about by collisions with others,  current and winds.  Goodbye waves seem curved and move more uniformly.  Like clouds a top the ocean.

                                                                     North Beaufort Sea. 
                                                     Man shatters the ice,  man looses face

Massive number of "Goodbye" waves don't appear to register on JAXA

~Gyre centred Anticyclone rearranged flow circulation,  a pause in the big extent drops were to be,  however expected to surge again very soon

  Beaufort Sea July 22 August 5 AMSR2 result.   Massive area of 'Goodbye' waves didn't really show up on JAXA which is very interesting,  it rather means that they are essentially slush,  otherwise need be confirmed as such.

  The 'Goodbye' waves of August 4 and 5 set themselves apart from sea ice in many ways,  they are likely very thin slushy sea ice remnants (with  different chemistry?),  very thin because they move faster:

   Goodbye waves are generally faster than sea ice,  as a matter of distinction and practicality, essentially excellent example on how to measure sea ice volume.  Lighter objects floating on sea surface should be swifter, especially if the sea current goes different direction than the winds .   Sea ice moves South while Goodbye waves move West...    Place your mouse pointer on Aug 3 on any large sea ice pan, and determine the distance it travelled,  notice Goodbye waves move greater distances.  WD August 6,2016

2016 so far matching toe to toe daily extent loss numbers vs 2012, now 2 days behind, #1 minima very possible

~Wrangel Island Northwards sea ice 'panhandle' to main pack disintegrating rapidly.
~North Pole will have messed up pack ice mixed with open water drifting there soon

      Wrangel Island Northwards very wide ice bridge likely with thicker sea ice multiple points of fusion were reached a fews days later than adjoining open water areas.  As the 'handle' sea ice to pack structure obliterates more and more daily,  close to 800,000 km2 will be likely gone come minima.
This makes minima at least 4.2 5.2 million square kilometres.  Since I did not estimate other areas, 2016 being  #2 position all time minima is now in range.   Looking at past melts having at least 1.65 million sea ice loss till minima,  #2 position is now a possibility,  especially given the current daily rate melt.  

     Despite not so dense cloud coverage, sea ice remote sensing observations, although not easy, are possible.    Fram Strait has major Eastward winds pushing its melt zone further to the North Atlantic.  We can note a gradual loosening of sea ice North of East Siberian  and Chukchi seas practically all the way to the Pole.  The rate of sea ice vanishing in this sector will dictate if the North Pole will be accessible to none icebreaker ships,  particularly from the Pacific side of the Pole.  The Transpolar Drift Stream appears to have moved near North Pole open water zone further along its usual path,

 leading to conclude that all this messed up pack ice from the South East Russian side along with open water  will be over the North Pole quite soon.  Next few days will have Anticyclone North of Beaufort,  an already strong stubborn gyre current will be re-energized a bit more as well. WDAugust 4 2016

Thicker sea ice? Find where the snow was missing.

    A very striking feature of sea ice topography at this melt season stage is the elongated Ice Bridge from  Komsomolet Island Northwards:

  August 2 2016 JAXA,  The only unperturbed sea ice appears as an arm stretching to Russian Arctic in deep purple.  This is not a surprise,  over the last winter, the main dumping surfaces for North Atlantic moisture was The Canadian Greenlandic Sector,  leaving The greater part of the central Russian Arctic dry:

     The best Arctic snowfall pattern depiction was made in Europe, Topaz 4 ,   find the same ice bridge,  created by winter's cold dark long night without a great snow cover.  Also take a look at where most open water is, especially away from sea shores.   In addition, the stubborn North of Wrangel Island sea ice panhandle can almost be depicted by this map.  Areas with more open water can be traced where there was more snow,  except for the Canadian Archipelago coast,  a very complex ridging zone,  where sea ice piles up due to Tidal action, however the sea ice there might just as well be thinner than expected,  because a greater snow cover decreases accretion.WDAugust 3,2016

Sea ice to water everywhere, latest 2016 melt captures "Goodbye Waves"

   By finding for "Goodbye Waves"  we can confirm melting wherever they are found.
They are useful in confirming thawing in not so common places.   WDAugust2,2016

Numerous sea ice "goodbye waves" North of Northeastern Laptev Sea, Eastern Beaufort and Lincoln Sea

     More whitish sea ice"goodbye"  waves appeared through wavy clouds,  likely  under wind driven stratocumulus or altocumulus appearing slightly greyer on August 1, 2016.   They now occupy top of sea water once covered by sea ice pans July 21 past.    Break up and dispersion of once a huge solid ice field expanse,  surrounding with water its broken up smaller pieces,  accelerated the melting a great deal.  At this date there are huge number of sea ice floes surrounded by open water everywhere in the Arctic.

   Beaufort Sea comprises many drift zones, some intertwine,  South of Banks island mainly Tidal driven ice tends to move East.  Just to the west of Banks is Gyre driven to the Southwest,  the 2 give similar but orientated "goodbye waves"  according to prevailing current.  We can see the gradual rapid melt in progress, but there are still thousands of incoming ice islands from CAB to turn to water.

Lincoln Sea opening to Nares Strait has always a significant tidal (southwards) drift,  but in this case the winds, characterized by August 1 lens NW shaped Stratocumulus ,  easily push away  the sea ice Northwestwards,  note the "goodbye waves" appear the most fluid and mobile zooming like arrows with the wind.  Northern Ellesmere ice conditions are now badly broken and can easily move open for miles in less than a day,  it does so even in the dead of winter because of daily tidal activity causing the "big lead" at times , this is a good summer example.  WD Aug31,2016

Back to water..... That just melted "goodbye" wave look

North of Beaufort sea has similar features to Fram Strait especially now.  Ice almost completely melted gives waves, similar to cirrus clouds announcing an approaching front:

     At extremes of the great Fram Strait melting zone lies the last remnants of sea ice,  whose physical nature really becomes elastic, from solid to slush/rubber to water.  It is a sight everywhere sea ice melts.  In this frame, present Cirrus clouds may be confused with melting sea ice.


    Even North of Beaufort Sea:

     Its melting North of Beaufort very fast.  But just before disappearing,  sea ice takes the shape of waves not so dictated by being very rigid,  these waves are water in transition from appearing solid white to dark liquid.  Each melt region has different melt transition characteristics.  Which is of course as individualistic of the geophysical features about.WDJuly31, 2016

Rapid Supply and Melt North of Mackenzie Delta Inuvialuit nunangani

   At present, the Beaufort Gyre current is very healthy with rapid continuous ice floes for the melt slaughter, again to the point where we can't readily easily identify any ice pan which disintegrates in shape and size in a matter of days.  Note in particular the apparent lack of day to day extent shrinking.  JAXA and other Grids may show very little melt progress but there is in fact huge ongoing melting.



       Melting occurs while the supply lasts:

    Further North of Northeast, the Central Arctic Basin has not an infinite supply of sea ice, although it may appear as such.  Note CAB sea ice pack density literally going smaller day by day, again extent numbers wont really explain this rapid melting until there is less ice than the required 15% threshold .   Archipelago Islands of course provide no such resupply, with the current flowing of sea ice away from them, these Islands provide "land shadows" ,  these give a net but small extent drop, however this is how the NW channels open suddenly, there is much more room for sea ice to move about.  WDjuly30,2016

Water temperature +.9 C at 77.8N 157.1W last report of Mass Buoy 2015j

   Near 80 N water temperatures still with quite a lot of ice cover, was measured a very warm if not hot +.91 C July 22,  by Mass Buoy 2015J last report.   The arrow points to very near its location.   Well further away from wide open water.      This temperature means bye bye sea ice,  and mass buoy 2015J should turn soon into a boat at any moment.   What surprises is how dense the ice was with so warm a water under.   The bottom thermistors read -1 C which may be more accurate,  however throughout the winter the Buoy appears to have recorded very good water temps.Mass Buoy 2015f,  well further North 83.49 North,  has -1.4 C water.

      There are 2 more locations with 1 degree sst much nearer the Pole,  likely retrieved from remote sensing.   Those in circles are in doubt,  not necessarily incorrect,  although the one North of Greenland +28C may be judged incorrect.     Note Chukchi sea +10  C North of Novaya Zemlya +6 C,  incredibly warm waters.
WDJuly29,2016

What does JAXA AMSR2 68377 km2 sea ice loss in a day looks like? Less than what it seems

     Simply looking at statistics gives one impression, looking at everything possible gives the holistic construct, a much better informed analytical approach.  In one day,  we really see whole scale melt damage throughout the vulnerable not tide compacted remnant of Arctic sea ice.  The small 990 mb or so Cyclone did quite a thing to the Laptev North of East Siberian sea"bite",  the Beaufort in origin wide water  expanse is in the process of growing with still thousands of little ice islands,  some are with oldest ice from the CAB ridging zone.  Fram Strait equally is about to have much smaller sea ice extent.  The Wrangel Island sea ice Panhandle is about to loose touch with the last place Mammoths existed and is disintegrating everywhere.    The Northwest passage strongest sea ice is collapsing quickly.  The only thing holding steady is West Laptev sea,  very interesting this year,  but that is another subject.  68377 km2 gives an idea,  the real action is spread over several times that number.  WD July29, 2016