Dense pack keeps on dispersing with leads widening in very warm temperatures.

     Displacement of densest pack ice (83.5 N 111 W)  has accelerated!   From 3 to 4.4 nautical miles Northwards a day.  Expansion between the leads has almost increased universally as well.   Long going, de-coiling momentum synergistically combined with the winds on top of warming temperatures and ever so present non amenable to freezing sea water.  It would be a mistake to infer that extent has increased because of greater coverage of sea ice.  Surface temperatures are -1 to -2 C,  again this event calls for better analysis tools.  The correct interpretation is that there is more open water per grid,  thus less sea ice.


More towards Wrangel Island Russia,  where there is a substantial presence of water the velocity is 6 nautical miles a day towards open water:

   A strongly frozen pack ice can hardly move more than 2 nautical miles a day unless there is a very good reason otherwise,  a blizzard with very strong winds or a sudden gash of open water caused by huge pressure variations.  What we see here is a strong expansion by dispersion,  the gaps between the packs is equally expansive.  The first 3 days Westward displacement of 6 nautical miles a day met with a wind direction change on the 4th day,  these de-coiling expansions are one of a kind,  likely to be common over next subsequent autumns.  WD  Sep 24-25 2016

 









 WD September 24,2016

Late September heat wave 74.7 North 95 West

Listen at melting sea ice so late in September with temperature 8 degrees above the daily maximum average.  

   At 67 meters above sea level official temperature was +2 C,  at sea level a little higher.  Sea water temp was -0.5 C despite teh Bay being full with colder Multiyear sea ice.  Black rock shore ridge inside temperature was +.6 C.

   Northwest Passage Invasion of pack ice once moving east westwards towards Baffin Bay,  now trapped by strong Southerlies on the South shore of Cornwallis Island.  wd September24,2016

2016 is a dispersed melt season with significant differences with a more compact 2012 within densest remaining pack ice.

    2016 smack where the densest ice should be has had a lot of open water.

  2012 same location slightly to the North of above (because of clouds),  de-coiled sea ice with less open water.

    2012-2016 83.5 N 155 W   again more open water for 2016.


        How exactly do we judge melt seasons when one is dispersed and the other one is compacted?
It would be wiser by sea ice area:

 If we look at this sea ice area graph,   the minima of 2016 is nearly equal to 2012.  That is much more accurate than extent metrics.    The significance of all this,  compact years use to be the norm,  since 2012,  dispersed sea ice at minima has become prominent.    Therefore 2016 minimum sea ice is very close to 2012, either way,  just below or just above, this is important to conceptualize,  a simple concentration figure would lay away a lot of confusion though.WDSeptember 23,2016.  

Snow or Grey ice or a mix of both? + Rapid displacements at minima.

  September 21  location                             VVVVVVV

 I calculate 30.6 nautical miles displacement in 5 days,  note ^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^  big pan on September 16 just above (86.57N 109.29E).   It travelled on average more than 6 nautical miles a day,  very rapid rate AGAINST the Transpolar Stream Current.  It means that there is a lot of grey ice and floating snow between the broken packs .   If grey areas was new sea ice they would completely cover the gaps,    But if it is floating snow or grey ice the leeward side would be full while the windward (towards the bottom of this page) open,  the open water locations change so it is likely floating snow which changes in texture with time and exposure.   Sea ice would set easier on the windward because pack ice offers no waves and a wind shade facilitating freeze-up more.

83 N 112W smack in the middle of densest but de-coiled pack ice, with temperatures between -10 to -17 C ,  still has open water (by movement) with a daily displacement of 3 nautical miles a day, a very rapid rate for dense pack indeed.  But with new sea ice,  recognized by drifting snow on top of it.  

Meanwhile near Franz Josef lands:

      The flow is equally rapid seen by open leads amongst loose pummeled pack.  The Goodbye Waves are less expansive than before,  but there are many of them.  WD September 22, 2016

+0.5 C cloudy weather melts submerged snow, but reappears after overnight snow showers

A day has past  and some ice multi-year ice has moved away along with much less floating/submerged snow.  

Company,  2 Polar bears  and partner in crime fox were just here.  

Yesterday's bergy bit is no longer surrounded by floating snow.  

   Upper left floating snow remains between small multiyear ice gaps,  sea water is colder  there.  September 19 at sea level was +0.5 C briefly,  this was enough to melt away snow rapidly even in -1 C sea water.  September 20 (today) overnight snowfall covered the Bay again with floating snow.  wd September 20,2016

JAXA Density jumps

 September 17 2016 JAXA vast great expanse of open water finally showed quite well,  and is comparable to sat picture:

But It did bot last:

                         JAXA depictions September 15-17-18  top to bottom.  Wild daily variations.
Yet satellite photos show vaster dispersion day by day.    WD September 19,2016

Vast expansion of scattered sea ice does not seem to record open water extent gains numerically, or it likely snowed a whole lot.

~Snow showers can confuse data to look like sea ice but there are some differences.

     First off,  JAXA extent data kept showing some expansion less one day since the almost official minima,  this is confirmed on satellite pictures,  but sea ice is scattering thinner,  eventually dispersion will show up in the data,  extent expansion should stall,  even despite the 15% rules:

    Vast expansion of scattered sea ice towards Central Russia from Pole.   Infers also that open sea water is expanding,  but JAXA daily extent data numbers does not seem to collapse daily expansiveness,  rather mostly the contrary.  There is,  however,  a very good explanation:

   Invasion of what is left of the Multiyear ice shows striking image,  the top sea ice is smooth the bottom ravaged by -1 C water.  Top sea ice layer has less salt and would be the last to go.  But this bergybit is surrounded by what appears to be smooth sea ice,  look carefully,  it is submerged fresh snow for the most part some segments have the snow sticking above water level.

   Fresh snow on lower tide sea shore gradually submerging in deeper water.

    Submerged snow differs from grey ice in colour and texture,  it mostly appears smooth.

   this years icescape of huge areas of Arctic Ocean broken sea ice makes the accurate measurement of sea ice  even more difficult.  Ice floes smother the wind and wave action moving the snow to pile up or  disperse.  In 2012,  Cryosphere today data recorded a vast expanse of submerged snow as sea ice during calm winds. Likewise 2016 most certainly has had expanding sea ice numbers earlier on account,  in part, of snow fall.  Summer/Autumn Arctic 2016 atmosphere has very moist air.WD September 18, 2016  

Melting continues 8 days after minima ; A contradiction? Or a missing sea ice to sea water ratio calculation

           The melting continues,  despite minima almost declared formally,  there is a lot of moist air about the entire Arctic,  clouds are very thick layered with rain turning to snow near ground in some parts.  There are at least 3  important Cyclones vicinity or over sea ice,  one is almost quasi-stationary North of Beaufort, laying steady between water and sea ice.  This does not come as a surprise,  the JAXA depiction here of sea is a lot less solid pack than the replication suggests,  there are plenty of warm spot sources keeping the cyclones steady.  Cooling is mainly happening over the  Canadian Arctic Archipelago,  not a surprise as well,   it was foreseen here long ago,  but there is a lot of snow falling from cyclonic activity compounding a warm cold heat engine complex.    

     Since we can't actually 'see' through the clouds without radar images,  we need better visualizations which may in great part explain why melting and extent drop is happening.  Enhanced visuals offer also a qualitative description of state of sea ice,  they can be compared from year to year with the holistic approach rather than simply numeric.  The danger in strictly oversimplifying the true nature of the icescape can't be overstated,  we have here an example which is rife with confusion because we don't appreciate the truer image.  WD September 17, 2016

Worse Sea ice in History next to North Pole towards Greenland/Spitsbergen

     2012 was the minima  year of record under the 15% peripheral method of measuring sea ice extent or area.   But as shown here just South of the Pole and North of Greenland,  had far denser sea ice, less mobile, as it should have been,  than 2016.  2015 same date showed the leads and fissures about to be bigger the following year.  2016 has utterly chaotic loose fluid sea ice where it was at 2012 minima relatively immobile and solid.   2016 to date has sea ice moving towards the Pole quite rapidly,  incredible if you think of it. The larger question is again raised,  how is 2012 the said minima year when 2016 has far less denser ice pack where it was most solid for Centuries?    Should we use a far more accurate and less esoteric method of judging sea ice quality and quantity?

    Smudges is all we see on September 15, 2016 JAXA,  which if it was so, sea ice would hardly move.   This representation gives a comparable image to 2012:

Same area had similar smudges,  but as we have seen on pictures above,  much more water.
 WD September 15, 2016

Cloudless window into the fragile state of de-coiled densest sea ice

   Very un-coiled  state of sea ice on the Canadian Greenlandic side of the Pole continues,  with open leads amongst many fractures easily susceptible to weather,  on the 13th frame we see approaching Low which should change this configuration shortly.

  JAXA September 13 2016.  The 15% rule masks or covers up this state of affairs with apparent sea ice not present.  The illusory diminution of open water is very much greater with loose pack ice presently on the Pole to Russian sector.  It is an acceptable depiction, as long as one is aware of the way these maps are made,  but why not replicate reality as fully as possible and forego this 15% rule at least with different full reality charts?  The luxury of no clouds for good observations is at times rare and fleeting.

  Sept 14 North of extreme NE Greenland very thick sea ice pushed Northwards like if it has a lot of room to move.    WD September 14,2016

De-Coiling of Canadian side of Pole causes pan-Arctic sea ice expansion in extent

  Other effect of Transpolar Stream being nothing but a loose gathering of pack ice floating about with the winds,  is de-coiling of the densest pack ice left:

  The Canadian side of the Pole is literally breaking apart.

This has huge consequences throughout the Arctic,  namely expansion of the loose pack towards Russia, Fram Strait bulging and Canadian Arctic Archipelago invasion of decompressed sea ice:

The tide current in the CAA is uninterruptible ,  no matter where the winds originate.  The Straits cause a funneling of massive area (not height)  of Arctic Ocean daily tides pushing against the Archipelago NW shores.  If sea ice becomes looser in its densest pack,  more free flowing sea ice gets carried by tidal currents. WD September 13,2016 

Plenty of melting not that it shows numerically

Franz Josef Land has near 0 C temperatures, but with sst's +2 C

Goodbye Waves a plenty,  and some opposite Transpolar Stream action effectively returning the loose pack towards the North Atlantic on its Eastern sector:  

JAXA chart  keeps on showing expansion of sea ice,  which is exactly following the 15% rule.  

There is likely no freezing,  mainly moving loose sea ice in contrary direction of the Transpolar Stream:

Looking carefully,  even with colder sea water and air near the Pole,  there is a presence of Goodbye Waves.  But far skinnier than near Franz Josef Lands.  

  The apparent open water gap filling sea ice is nothing but pack ice having plenty of dispersing room.  Note a huge sector of denser pack ice as well moving towards Russia,  likely part of de-coiling of Canadian side sea ice.    The 15% rule is very bad in describing this event pictographically. The sea ice provenance area has more expanded open water,  this does not show at all on JAXA chart,  because there is a great deal of shattering,  sea ice moving one way,  transpolar current moving the other,  plenty of stress, movement and collisions, but what the chart doesn't show is the vastness of open sea water.  Much greater than ever before near the North Pole.  WD September 11,2016

Titanic case reopened!

~National Geographic excellent presentation about likely reason for R.M.S.  Titanic collision with Iceberg has only one problem:  Its not possible.

~ Actually said so after it was presented,  and now proof

~  Water walls are the rarest refraction effect ever,  never seen in the land of refractions.

Massive De-coiling Canada Greenland sector continues

   The thickest densest sea ice left in the Arctic is unravelling at its faults lines.

18z CMC Sep 9 2016 surface chart has no significant meteorological reason for this.

     This is what less sea ice does when missing megatons of pressure does not push towards Greenland. The flow is almost always Eastwards,  but a tempered jammed Eastwards.  WD Sep 10, 2016

Dispersion of very melted broken up sea ice makes the 15% rule obsolete

     Russian sector of the North Pole had clearly a net expansion of extent,  but not because it was freezing,  much rather from the poor condition of extremely thinned breaking up sea ice.   All while there was melting.  So it is very difficult to judge either how fast the melting is unless dispersion is taken into account.    The other way to judge is by Goodbye Waves:

    Dispersing more rapidly Goodbye Waves are a sign of melting amongst winds and currents.   Judging melting correctly would be to factor in,  not exclude by an arbitrary rule,  every parcel of open water and sea ice as accurately as possible.   WD Sep 9,2016

Atlantic Front Franz Josef Lands melt/retreat Northwards, dispersion of broken apart sea ice will eventually thin further and give dramatic extent drop

  We see thinning of sea ice loose packs almost everywhere in the Arctic Ocean,  here North of Franz Josef Land Russia, is a retreat of sea ice Northwards.  This flow has no solid pack to recoil on and therefore is breaking apart.   Note Goodbye Waves to the South of the Front indicate great melting.  The new open water areas, numerous as they may be,  are highly likely not recorded by extent numbers 15% per grid regulation.

   Superimposed JAXA map September 5 (white black) September 7 (in colour).  The colour gains,  on the Leeward side (winds counterclockwise) of sea ice shores outnumber the black and white september 5 map by a far greater extent,  black being mixed with colour on the largely steady compacted windward side.  This masks the real melt numbers further.  Eventually,  further dispersion will show dramatic melt results. WD September 8,2016

De coiling sea ice , a sea ice momentum reprieve North of Greenland.

Some of the toughest thickest sea ice is also decompressing North of Greenland,  the pressure from
the usual sea ice momentum given by the Transpolar Stream Current is non-existent.  The response is a de coil action Northwards then an easier flow Eastwards.   This action is not noiseless,  luckily not many people live there,  there should be some thunder rumbling to be heard.  WD Sept 7, 2016

N.P. to Ostrov Komsomolets once ice bridge in taters, dispersing greatly as well as melting

   It was the strongest ice bridge in summer 2016, was from the Pole to Russia,  principally because there was a thinner snow layer which created the thickest ice possible given the warm winter just past.   Now its moving apart rapidly,  look at the central open water ridge moving fast Eastwards. Goodbye Waves a plenty can also be seen on the Leeward side on Sept 7 (left shore).   The Ostrov  Komsomolets ice bridge was huge apparently invincible:

   And now dispersing with the winds,  becoming larger in the process and distorting the melt view.  WD Sep7,2016

A lot of confusing action explains extent drop stall

   Apparent to all is the Transpolar Stream fill,  in a mere day,  affecting extent readings,
there is also false snow reflections particularly in the Canadian Arctic Archipelago, fallen floating snow appears as sea ice.

 There was no real fill of the Transpolar Stream,  just counterclockwise movement enabling by stress more shattering of larger ice pans,  in other words greater scattering affecting the 15% sea ice grid numbers to rise.  WDSep6,2016

Some effects of open water Transpolar Stream Current

It is not so obvious,  there is the Atlantic front,  where there is far less sea ice momentum pushing slowly to the North Atlantic:

  August 26 to September 4  East of Spitsbergen.    Appearing steady or moving North with a lot of melting.

  Fram Strait substantial extent gains with likely the most solid dense ice left unencumbered by TPS sea ice ,  hence the stretching out sea ice peninsula not with numerous Goodbye Waves,  but heading certainly to melt at a much slower rate than Atlantic Front sea ice.WD Sept5,2016