Scant near North Pole visuals; sea ice is badly broken up towards the Atlantic Front.

     For august 11,  we only have 2016,  2014 and 2013 with clear enough skies.  We know that 2016 is badly broken up on the North Atlantic quadrant of the Pole all the way to 88 North within the area of 00 Longitude  along the Trans Polar Stream.   2014 looked like solid consolidation in comparison. Much more broken with open sea water than  2013,  which always was an interesting year.    2016 has had great sea ice volume losses towards the Atlantic,  not necessarily showing well with the numbers. This area of sea ice has very serious implications with Central Arctic Basin consolidation,  if open water dilutes further this sea ice, it would mean more unstable situation leading for more massive losses or melting.   WDAug12,2016

Atlantic Front: substantial evidence of massive melting, 'goodbye' waves a plenty

All along the North Atlantic sea ice front,  about 1200 Kilometres long,  there are numerous new 'Goodbye' waves,  sure evidence of recent massive melting.  From Fram Strait,  to North of Spitsbergen to beyond Franz Josef lands,  as seen here in our roving NASA EOSDIS shots.  Although the newish extended sea ice front line position has recently expanded and appears  more or less stable, that is an illusion,  the sea ice melts just as fast as it touches warmer water.  The end result is a great loss of sea ice.  Assume Southwards sea ice movement a modest fluid 2 kilometres an hour ,  about 48 kilometres a day melt along apparently a steady front,  potentially 60,000 km2 a day loss is possible, without actual remote sensing detection. WDAugust10 2016.

Expansion and dilution at once, nature is playing games with our eyes

    While extent drops have recently been lesser,  the melt is just as strong:

Looking at JAXA results,  there has been an expansion of sea ice about 120,000 Km2,  on the North Atlantic front.  As reported here,   there is a great deal of daily melting along that front.  It can be readily identified by comparing when the front was quiet on July 26,  now look at Aug 9 map.  The entire front is battered by the melting (black broken ice zones),  but the flow continues Southwards, nevertheless  right into very warm sea water .   In the mean time,  the CAB is diluting more rapidly leading the way for further water expansion on the Pacific side of the North Pole, which is awfully close to wide open water areas.  Holistically speaking this melt is as bad as it got at this time of the season.  WD Aug7,2016

Atlantic front great movement, super melting trap

  It did not take long for the real Arctic Ocean currents to be re-energized by favourable weather circulation,  there is a mini dipole at the other end of sea ice,  the Trans Polar Stream and main GAC Gyre appear almost full force.  As a result the Atlantic front, seen here, is expanding right into a trap of warm sea water.  With respect to Extent numbers,  they may seem less due to this vast expansion,    but robust they will be in the long run. wdAug7,2016

Individuals always melt away to darkness.

Fram Strait layered Goodbye waves join the ether of the sea.  Rapidly melting sea ice bounces about by collisions with others,  current and winds.  Goodbye waves seem curved and move more uniformly.  Like clouds a top the ocean.

                                                                     North Beaufort Sea. 
                                                     Man shatters the ice,  man looses face

Massive number of "Goodbye" waves don't appear to register on JAXA

~Gyre centred Anticyclone rearranged flow circulation,  a pause in the big extent drops were to be,  however expected to surge again very soon

  Beaufort Sea July 22 August 5 AMSR2 result.   Massive area of 'Goodbye' waves didn't really show up on JAXA which is very interesting,  it rather means that they are essentially slush,  otherwise need be confirmed as such.

  The 'Goodbye' waves of August 4 and 5 set themselves apart from sea ice in many ways,  they are likely very thin slushy sea ice remnants (with  different chemistry?),  very thin because they move faster:

   Goodbye waves are generally faster than sea ice,  as a matter of distinction and practicality, essentially excellent example on how to measure sea ice volume.  Lighter objects floating on sea surface should be swifter, especially if the sea current goes different direction than the winds .   Sea ice moves South while Goodbye waves move West...    Place your mouse pointer on Aug 3 on any large sea ice pan, and determine the distance it travelled,  notice Goodbye waves move greater distances.  WD August 6,2016

2016 so far matching toe to toe daily extent loss numbers vs 2012, now 2 days behind, #1 minima very possible

~Wrangel Island Northwards sea ice 'panhandle' to main pack disintegrating rapidly.
~North Pole will have messed up pack ice mixed with open water drifting there soon

      Wrangel Island Northwards very wide ice bridge likely with thicker sea ice multiple points of fusion were reached a fews days later than adjoining open water areas.  As the 'handle' sea ice to pack structure obliterates more and more daily,  close to 800,000 km2 will be likely gone come minima.
This makes minima at least 4.2 5.2 million square kilometres.  Since I did not estimate other areas, 2016 being  #2 position all time minima is now in range.   Looking at past melts having at least 1.65 million sea ice loss till minima,  #2 position is now a possibility,  especially given the current daily rate melt.  

     Despite not so dense cloud coverage, sea ice remote sensing observations, although not easy, are possible.    Fram Strait has major Eastward winds pushing its melt zone further to the North Atlantic.  We can note a gradual loosening of sea ice North of East Siberian  and Chukchi seas practically all the way to the Pole.  The rate of sea ice vanishing in this sector will dictate if the North Pole will be accessible to none icebreaker ships,  particularly from the Pacific side of the Pole.  The Transpolar Drift Stream appears to have moved near North Pole open water zone further along its usual path,

 leading to conclude that all this messed up pack ice from the South East Russian side along with open water  will be over the North Pole quite soon.  Next few days will have Anticyclone North of Beaufort,  an already strong stubborn gyre current will be re-energized a bit more as well. WDAugust 4 2016

Thicker sea ice? Find where the snow was missing.

    A very striking feature of sea ice topography at this melt season stage is the elongated Ice Bridge from  Komsomolet Island Northwards:

  August 2 2016 JAXA,  The only unperturbed sea ice appears as an arm stretching to Russian Arctic in deep purple.  This is not a surprise,  over the last winter, the main dumping surfaces for North Atlantic moisture was The Canadian Greenlandic Sector,  leaving The greater part of the central Russian Arctic dry:

     The best Arctic snowfall pattern depiction was made in Europe, Topaz 4 ,   find the same ice bridge,  created by winter's cold dark long night without a great snow cover.  Also take a look at where most open water is, especially away from sea shores.   In addition, the stubborn North of Wrangel Island sea ice panhandle can almost be depicted by this map.  Areas with more open water can be traced where there was more snow,  except for the Canadian Archipelago coast,  a very complex ridging zone,  where sea ice piles up due to Tidal action, however the sea ice there might just as well be thinner than expected,  because a greater snow cover decreases accretion.WDAugust 3,2016

Sea ice to water everywhere, latest 2016 melt captures "Goodbye Waves"

   By finding for "Goodbye Waves"  we can confirm melting wherever they are found.
They are useful in confirming thawing in not so common places.   WDAugust2,2016

Numerous sea ice "goodbye waves" North of Northeastern Laptev Sea, Eastern Beaufort and Lincoln Sea

     More whitish sea ice"goodbye"  waves appeared through wavy clouds,  likely  under wind driven stratocumulus or altocumulus appearing slightly greyer on August 1, 2016.   They now occupy top of sea water once covered by sea ice pans July 21 past.    Break up and dispersion of once a huge solid ice field expanse,  surrounding with water its broken up smaller pieces,  accelerated the melting a great deal.  At this date there are huge number of sea ice floes surrounded by open water everywhere in the Arctic.

   Beaufort Sea comprises many drift zones, some intertwine,  South of Banks island mainly Tidal driven ice tends to move East.  Just to the west of Banks is Gyre driven to the Southwest,  the 2 give similar but orientated "goodbye waves"  according to prevailing current.  We can see the gradual rapid melt in progress, but there are still thousands of incoming ice islands from CAB to turn to water.

Lincoln Sea opening to Nares Strait has always a significant tidal (southwards) drift,  but in this case the winds, characterized by August 1 lens NW shaped Stratocumulus ,  easily push away  the sea ice Northwestwards,  note the "goodbye waves" appear the most fluid and mobile zooming like arrows with the wind.  Northern Ellesmere ice conditions are now badly broken and can easily move open for miles in less than a day,  it does so even in the dead of winter because of daily tidal activity causing the "big lead" at times , this is a good summer example.  WD Aug31,2016

Back to water..... That just melted "goodbye" wave look

North of Beaufort sea has similar features to Fram Strait especially now.  Ice almost completely melted gives waves, similar to cirrus clouds announcing an approaching front:

     At extremes of the great Fram Strait melting zone lies the last remnants of sea ice,  whose physical nature really becomes elastic, from solid to slush/rubber to water.  It is a sight everywhere sea ice melts.  In this frame, present Cirrus clouds may be confused with melting sea ice.


    Even North of Beaufort Sea:

     Its melting North of Beaufort very fast.  But just before disappearing,  sea ice takes the shape of waves not so dictated by being very rigid,  these waves are water in transition from appearing solid white to dark liquid.  Each melt region has different melt transition characteristics.  Which is of course as individualistic of the geophysical features about.WDJuly31, 2016

Rapid Supply and Melt North of Mackenzie Delta Inuvialuit nunangani

   At present, the Beaufort Gyre current is very healthy with rapid continuous ice floes for the melt slaughter, again to the point where we can't readily easily identify any ice pan which disintegrates in shape and size in a matter of days.  Note in particular the apparent lack of day to day extent shrinking.  JAXA and other Grids may show very little melt progress but there is in fact huge ongoing melting.



       Melting occurs while the supply lasts:

    Further North of Northeast, the Central Arctic Basin has not an infinite supply of sea ice, although it may appear as such.  Note CAB sea ice pack density literally going smaller day by day, again extent numbers wont really explain this rapid melting until there is less ice than the required 15% threshold .   Archipelago Islands of course provide no such resupply, with the current flowing of sea ice away from them, these Islands provide "land shadows" ,  these give a net but small extent drop, however this is how the NW channels open suddenly, there is much more room for sea ice to move about.  WDjuly30,2016

Water temperature +.9 C at 77.8N 157.1W last report of Mass Buoy 2015j

   Near 80 N water temperatures still with quite a lot of ice cover, was measured a very warm if not hot +.91 C July 22,  by Mass Buoy 2015J last report.   The arrow points to very near its location.   Well further away from wide open water.      This temperature means bye bye sea ice,  and mass buoy 2015J should turn soon into a boat at any moment.   What surprises is how dense the ice was with so warm a water under.   The bottom thermistors read -1 C which may be more accurate,  however throughout the winter the Buoy appears to have recorded very good water temps.Mass Buoy 2015f,  well further North 83.49 North,  has -1.4 C water.

      There are 2 more locations with 1 degree sst much nearer the Pole,  likely retrieved from remote sensing.   Those in circles are in doubt,  not necessarily incorrect,  although the one North of Greenland +28C may be judged incorrect.     Note Chukchi sea +10  C North of Novaya Zemlya +6 C,  incredibly warm waters.
WDJuly29,2016

What does JAXA AMSR2 68377 km2 sea ice loss in a day looks like? Less than what it seems

     Simply looking at statistics gives one impression, looking at everything possible gives the holistic construct, a much better informed analytical approach.  In one day,  we really see whole scale melt damage throughout the vulnerable not tide compacted remnant of Arctic sea ice.  The small 990 mb or so Cyclone did quite a thing to the Laptev North of East Siberian sea"bite",  the Beaufort in origin wide water  expanse is in the process of growing with still thousands of little ice islands,  some are with oldest ice from the CAB ridging zone.  Fram Strait equally is about to have much smaller sea ice extent.  The Wrangel Island sea ice Panhandle is about to loose touch with the last place Mammoths existed and is disintegrating everywhere.    The Northwest passage strongest sea ice is collapsing quickly.  The only thing holding steady is West Laptev sea,  very interesting this year,  but that is another subject.  68377 km2 gives an idea,  the real action is spread over several times that number.  WD July29, 2016

See through Cyclone; not so much clouds

    This very artistic, elegant, cyclone North of East Siberian sea is not very cloudy.  Adds to the complexity of already mixed up ice, along with with different weather features. wdJuly27,2016

Very little wind significant change North of New Siberian Islands

   Again the larger question is how already badly broken up 2016 sea ice is reacting to Cyclonic winds?   Let's see what merely an approaching Cyclone did North of Siberia after July 19:

       There are at least 2 concurring major contributors to icescape dilution: one is critical temperature of sea ice core nearing multiple possible melting points, 2 is the  approaching Cyclone covered in the previous article.   Spreading and shattering ice around and very likely accelerating melting. Let's see the net effect with 2 clearest pictures:

      Devastation with very little wind, water to ice extent ratios have increased substantially, many ice pans have shattered and are difficult to recognize.    This is a small example of what a truly powerful Cyclone can do.   WD July 27,2016

 

Arctic Cyclone storm surge effects on already badly broken 2016 sea ice

   It is really in reality deja vu,   August 5 2012 had a deep cyclone apparently clearing sea ice very quickly.  It was so, but there was pre-conditioning of sea ice,  already on the verge of melting completely, with ice column temperatures at or near the melting points of saltier bottom and top fresh water like ice.  The Cyclone opened up sea ice much further,  stirred the sea water column where there was open water.     Now we have a somewhat slower, quasi stationary approx 990 mb large Low North of East Siberian Sea.  Sea ice was already broken up before it flayed it further,  it will be very interesting to see if there has been residual effects similar with 2012 Aug 5 event:

    Cyclone July 26 opened up the ice much further,  black water is seen near its centre,  a particular place where sea water level rises more than at the far perimeter of the cloud waves.  Prior to the cyclone,  North of East Siberian sea was already quite open,  part of the "Laptev bite" look.    What is very interesting is the storm centre black zone.

     What is the difference with 2012?

July 26 2012 same area had sea ice far less broken,   which eventually melted/compacted at minima.    Although the East Siberian sea of 2016 had similar open water to the Laptev sea of 2012.

We can conclude from AMSR2 data and the NASA overviews that this Cyclone had not quite the same effect as August 2012 Low,  after all it was not as strong,  but did indeed create a great deal more open water,  highlighting the fragility of sea ice surely to vanish come mid September, especially if the ratio of open water to sea ice extent was increased.  WD July 26,2016