A Rogue extremely cold Vortice just flew by, an example of the new winter look for decades to come

~Winter may be officially over,  but it said final goodbye in NE USA on March 28

~It was a Rogue Vortice,  very cold Cold Temperature North Pole  cut off from the Polar Vortex

~Expect more of these more often for many winters to come

   The geometry of winter has changed,  it has become thinner,  not bloated by darkness as it use to be.  In effect, winter still rages but for smaller areas, when so

the  vastly larger stable warmer air deepens the Cold Temperature North Pole(s),  not often at the North Pole,  but wherever it may be.  Sometimes very surprisingly, like a few days ago  as on March 28 over Michigan USA,  suffering again a cold blitz,  something special makes it there,  perhaps it’s the location tip of the elongated end of the Polar Vortex,  stretched out with favorable cooling weather  twinned with some cold air advection.  At any rate, being in late March,  such a low latitude CTNP has no chance of living long,  as it did so.  

However the geometry is of interest:

If you look carefully at State of  Michigan a cold zone formed by itself on the 26 of March.  

It soon joined the elongated Polar Vortex rapidly in a day,  there was a -31 C  700 mb temperature recorded there on the 28th.  NOAA daily composite does not show this because this -30 C 600 mb area was so small.   This rogue vortex moved rapidly North East and vanished afterwards.  Cold air can form as cold as the Arctic in temperate zones,  it depends on the weather. 

  The vast expanse of a fierce winter does not tend to create Rogue Vortices:

 

   The jet stream (green) does not shear away and create a rogue vortice while the Polar Vortex is intensely very wide and cold (blue).   That was occurring more often than not during not so long ago winters.   When it got cold, it stayed that way for prolonged periods.  Those were the days. 

     Recent winters were mostly warmer, not withstanding occasional periods of extreme cold weather.

Although never lasting long, characterized with hit and run blizzards followed by a lot of snow melting not long afterwards.   Geometry explains this,  a rogue vortice is easily created by narrower cold areas,  the jet stream bends along a lot more with the smaller collapsing in size state of winter.  Rogues have already shocked many people use to milder winter,  easily forgetting it was so until  a rogue hits their land.  The intensity of cold atmosphere  is related to how much stable time the low in altitude winter sun can not warm cloudless areas forcibly loosing long wave radiation,  heat to space.   The amorphous Polar Vortex as shown just above,   tends to cause circulation stalls as well, increasing the chance of one region loosing radiation to space continuously for weeks.  Hence strange reports of intense -40 C weather lasting long despite warmer weather everywhere else.  WD April 3,2022

 

Sun disks confirm anomalous Arctic warming

 ~Especially away from the Cold Temperature North Pole

~Presently in the extreme Northern Arctic lands of Ellesmere and North Siberia

      It took a while ,  more  extensive cloud cover slowed data acquisition, but today help  gathered more than 50 sun disk measurements having a remarkable 20% result of vertical sun disks being above all time highest decimal averages.  5% is considered normal random result,  indicating no warming or cooling of the atmosphere.  20% is 4 times above normal.  Not seen like this since 2010 and 2016.   Turns out there is a warming,  particularly over the Arctic Ocean, not coming as a surprise given the thinner sea ice: 

 https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2022/mar/21/extremes-of-40c-above-normal-whats-causing-extraordinary-heating-in-polar-regions

    Indeed , all time high temps coincide with increasing clouds and the perpetuation of North Atlantic and Pacific moisture well above the Arctic circle,  this evenings CMC 700 mb  chart shows where the heat was found to be,  not only today but for about the last 2 weeks.  

     In yellow is the area where sun disks were measured.  There was a significant CTNP off West central Greenland a few days ago,  now the CTNP hovers above Ellesmere Island.   The CTNP was much further South preceding West Greenland,  it had no staying power because of proximity to the North Atlantic,   CTNP migrated from Northern Quebec to West Greenland and finally central Ellesmere in about 8  days., all while flowing air from the Arctic Ocean basin southwards West of 90W degrees longitude.  In the not so distant past,  this would have meant a significant deep freeze in the same area in yellow.  Vertical sun disks are far more sensitive to the temperature of the entire atmosphere, than at any particular altitude.  At recent vernal equinoxes particularly 2018, 2019  and 20,  the CTNP was situated above the central Canadian Arctic Archipelago,  strongly shrinking vertical sun disks,  2022 equinox scene is different, more like 2017 and preceding years,  when sun disks were much expanded and representing the whole Arctic.  Measuring sun disks from center of CTNP gave a peculiar distorted view representing a stable center of extreme cold clear sky weather which was unique compared to past 17 years.  Colder air, albeit smaller in extent,  can subsist even when warming is almost overwhelming at every locations.

WD March 21 2022

 

CTNP moves; Siberia Canadian Arctic Archipelago back to Siberia

~ Winter 2021-2022 story to date,  CTNP shifts from Siberian dominance to the CAA and returning to Siberia.

~ Canadian Archipelago recent dominance is fading fast.

    The larger question throughout winter is always explaining the reason for Cold Temperature North Pole location at any given daily location.    Turns out 2021 early winter Siberian dominance may have been caused by Arctic Ocean having more open water,  hence more snow,  onsets early winter there, On Canadian side of Arctic, winter was delayed by incredible warming and less snow,  unusual considering last few years same periods.  

    Early Winter CTNP Siberia shifted gradually to Canada, largely because

it blew cold continental air across the just frozen Arctic Ocean,  in a river of cold air, clearly seen above and below.  This flow was unstoppable, the Siberian Polar Vortice assured this.  Eventually

the very moist flood giving Pacific North American flow of air was cut off by a huge stable Pacific High,  in part created by this flow.  This formed new anticyclones East of the Rockies which rapidly sent the Prairies in a deep freeze,  https://edmonton.ctvnews.ca/nastiest-deep-freeze-in-edmonton-in-over-a-half-century-1.5732278.  the stable cold clear reverse feedback cooling  air at 40 to 50 degrees North latitude over not so much snow covered land can go in a deep freeze fast because the sun is low in elevation and the nights are long in January.  This deep freeze eventually  joined the real area of very cold North American air in the CAA,  causing the first strong North American CTNP vortice,  dominating the Northern world.  However,  the incredible North Pacific blob of warm water temperature finally was returned by no less than the CAA CTNP,  another quasi permanent West to East circulation.   Now North America is facing a warming caused by the very center of coldest air apply placed about Hudson Strait.  As we can see below,  North America is about to warm substantially with a far weaker CTNP core vortice:

A weekly NOAA composite summary of 600 mb temperatures brings out what is to come.  Cold air may be stable next to a giant iceberg,  Greenland,  but is very vulnerable if pushed over the Atlantic, as it has been during the last few days, but before it vanishes,  the warmth of the Pacific has been dragged over much of North America.  This moist laden heat flow will eventually stall, and the last remnants of a weak winter may barely reach a wide area,  I'd expect a weak CAA CTNP vortice as already confirmed by sun shots,  giving about average differential refraction sun disks.  As the loop above shows, the extent of Polar Vortex  cold air is rather small,  guarantees  a shorter winter, early spring.  WD March 6 2022

CTNP vortices avoiding Arctic Ocean sea ice , rapid warming of the Arctic transforms Polar Vortex morphology

 ~The speed of change is dramatic,  considering average warming by 1 C average use to take hundreds of years.  

~Arctic weather is morphing with respect to a warmer North Pole

   We look at recent CTNP vortices,  those coldest centers of the Polar Vortex,  at 600 mb pressure level, representing the temperature of the entire troposphere,  and find remarkable avoidance of the Arctic Ocean for having a Cold Temperature North Pole,  as surmised in previous articles,  they were interspersed, small, fleeting,  if any at all,  while similar over land at least lasting longer in duration or more stable:

CTNP's , the middle of coldest vortices found in the tropospheric Polar Vortex were remarkably bouncing all over the place in January 2022 finally settling into a major one over the Canadian Arctic Archipelago at January end.  But in the past.  CTNP's were not always Arctic Ocean shy:

Here we split the climate scenes made obvious in less than 30 years,  one in the 1970's and the other in last few years.  The contrast can't be more clear,  since 2007,  the Arctic Ocean seems to have been cleared of CTNP's,  while in late 70's it was 5 February 11's out of 6 which had CTNP presence,  rather than 1 out of 7 for 2007, 2016, 2018,2019 till 2022 same day.  The importance of taking a single day is not trivial,  since the area involved is huge, given same atmospheric chemistry, the odds are somewhere during the same day the temperatures would be similar.   Arctic Sea ice not as thick,  not as insulating from said but now warmer Ocean,  giving a different circulation pattern for the entire Northern Hemisphere,  which has not given pleasant or comfortable weather conditions in certain key locations of our planet.   WD Feb 12, 2022

When coldest of winter starts from the South, the new climate normal

 ~An Arctic perspective use to portray cold winds from the NORTH

~Now cold atmospheres start from the South

Pay attention to the High Arctic weighted temperature of the entire troposphere.  At beginning of January till mid month the coldest air was further South,  then after the Cold Temperature North Poles grew in size,  the coldest temperatures finally settled in the High Arctic.  This climate shift is recent.  Basically implies a warmer Arctic,  on land especially over thinner sea ice.  Still implying the bulge of winter moved Northwards in several locations.  Over the oceans and virtually on every part of the continents,  whereas winter of old still exists but for much shorter time periods.  On the North American side,  the CTNP settling over the Eastern High Arctic give more often than not the warm winter periods of late.    However the less expansive Cold Temperature Vortice centers on each continents make for dramatic weather changes,  which make the news because these weather events are usually out of time and place. WD Feb 6 2022

Don't look UP .... North....... Arctic sea ice in dire straits (literally)

 ~Ridging sea ice against the Canadian Arctic Archipelago hardly exists!

   These are strange days, when denialists and a few microphone Youtube presenters sway large segments of our population to believe in fantasy impressions of reality,  even when evidence,  not little bit of evidence, massive sways of archives occupy computer memory banks, instead of human minds.  

  To help up a few hesitant deniers,  and to encourage them to do their own exploration, hopefully backed the writings of giants (found in any good science book) .  Here is the Canadian Arctic Archipelago,  just NW  of its center,  January 23 and below this for good measure 26 ,  2022,  

    January 23 Polarview picture,  the top one,  looks very distressing,  January 26 ,  same area,  shows some freezing,  which should be extremely strong in Polar darkness,  it doesn't seem so here.  For those who don't know about the Canadian Arctic Archipelago (ie CAA),  I am not surprised,  TV maps rarely depict them correctly:

The placement of 2021/22 on this weather map,  is where the sea ice pictures above come from.   The CAA is portrayed the usual way here,  as something to type over.  Actually its a fairly good TV weather map compared to most.    At any rate,  there was and  is (to a lesser extent) a tidal ridging of sea ice ,  going back millions of years, from the Arctic Ocean basin (the Arctic Ocean) towards the Canadian Arctic Archipelago NW shore,  this ridging and compaction, was, once upon a time ,  intense:

Same location as pictures above, HRPT likely USSR  Meteor,  but can be NOAA,  circa 1989, January 4.  The coastal Arctic sea ice day, was solidly frozen, marked by "tidal' leads, often frozen in a day, looking like hair strands or river channels.  On occasion, as on this day,  a High pressure, massive, heavy, opened up the very thick consolidated sea ice. But water opening never lasted longer than a few days, recognizable by their grey-ish appearance (new ice and fresh snow cover), the big black lead above  had a short lifespan.  Again for good measure we have another archive  picture:

     19 days later,  the huge High  pressure lead can't be recognized,  it almost totally vanished,  but newer "tidal" leads can be seen.     They are created  and destroyed, vanished  and faded daily.  The difference here,  between 1989 and 2022 is obvious,  there is less thick sea ice ridging against the CAA shores,  the 2022 shots demonstrate a summer sea ice configuration,  looser pack,  significantly thinner,  with a lot more open water.  Compare again with a modern same resolution as 1989 NOAA HRPT photo Jan 27 2022:

        Arctic long night sea ice is barely recognizable a mere 33 years later.WD Jan 28 2022

Great Temperate zone in origin FREEZING blast, whatever happened to the Arctic blast? I wonder.....

 

Last I looked , 65 degrees North latitude was the sub-Arctic,  where most of the cooling action seems to have been created in between January 5 and 10 2022,  but again, the greatest cooling occurred nearly in the temperate North American  zone.    In such the new weather Climate takes shape,  tropospheric Polar Vortex Cold Temperature North Pole vortices form here and there, appear to move rapidly,   or  form and disappear just as quickly,  at the same time, with very steady cyclones and jet stream positions.  And such are the days of transition,  just prior to perineal Arctic sea ice soon becoming seasonal. WD January 17, 2022

Shrinking of winter, one year at the time

~The bitter cold "Arctic Blast" isn't as big as it use to be

~Visual proof of Global warming very apparent,  especially when La-Nina periods look like El-Nino

          Winter 2021-22 started small:

In fact millions of square kilometers smaller than 1977,  2016 very powerful El-Nino warming is comparable to modest La-Ninas during  2020 and 2021 as well,  astounding if you think of it.  The only quadrant from North Pole apparently not so much changed since 77 is the Russian side.  Temperatures at 600 mb are more influenced by greenhouse gases and surface temperatures than the stratosphere,  which tends to cool when the troposphere warms.  600 mb is also the closest pressure level to the density weighted temperature (DWT)  of the entire troposphere.  

Latest December mean 600 mb winter temperatures have equally shrunken in extent quite visibly.  In particular in the Canadian Arctic, North Pacific and Atlantic.  2021-22 loss of the Canadian Arctic frost continental wide 'bite" was particularly felt on the Eastern North American coast.  Notably because the extent of cold Polar vortex centers,  highly circulating influential vortices,  are smaller.  It does not mean that smaller vortices are warmer,  they can be just as cold as ever or even more deeply cold.   Cold Temperature North Poles of smaller extent are equally mobile and can navigate the Globe rapidly,  easily making people forget the warm winter they enjoyed so far.  Again it is quite obvious that the new world climate winter order will be dominated by Siberia.  Implying dramatic changes not experienced by humans in many parts of the world.  In particular NW Europe,  the Canadian Archipelago CTNP vortice has huge implications if absent.  Namely the Gulf Stream cyclones can turn Westwards instead of Northeastwards towards Ireland and the UK.  Alaska benefited extreme warming for lack of the Canadian Archipelago bulge as well.  The other large unknown is what will this do to the Gulf Stream itself,  in the long run a significant Atmospheric circulation change also gets to influence Ocean currents.  WD Jan12 2021

Never so steady polar vortex circulation, strange things happen when nothing moves

 ~Take one day,  any day,  of the recent weeks,  and the weather image is close to the same.

~So much for chaotic weather

   First we observe winter 2021 Siberian Cold Temperature North Pole dominance,  a awe puzzling phenomena, which I have a somewhat good grasp,  but this is the main feature,  we start from there,  but was it always like this?

NO is the answer,  spot check 4 winter days in the not so distant past,  the year when Arctic sea ice was much thicker,  1977,  with Arctic sea ice wedged or ridged against the North American side of the North Pole helped create a colder region than Siberia.  Remember he Canadian Arctic Archipelago, prior to 1947 had very few people living there for a reason,  it was often colder than Siberia.   In this spot check, November 11, 25;  December 9 and 23 at 600 mb temperature, where the average temperature of the troposphere may be found without calculations.  3 out of 4 of these days,  the legendary bitter cold Siberia,  was warmer than the Canadian High Arctic. 

Fast forward 2015,  3 years after the famous 2012 Arctic Sea ice  minima melt,  there was the strongest El-Nino in history,   Siberia appears dominant cold 2 days out of 4,  yet ,  El-Nino was on the American side of the Pole, so this might be ENSO driven.  But recent years observations gradually place Siberia coldest atmosphere of the Northern world during the majority of winter days,  a shift,  largely due to the Northern Pacific and Atlantic being very warmed;

3 out of 4 same November and December days in 2021,  make Siberia the dominant Coldest Atmosphere ,  a huge pattern shift,  Ignore Greenland area,  the atmosphere at 600 mb is greatly influenced by ice, there should be dominance of cold air  at the top of a Glacier especially when 600 mb winds are calm, so a daily record must consider this.   Besides it rained at the top of Greenland this summer past:

 https://www.nbcnews.com/science/environment/rained-first-time-summit-greenlands-ice-sheet-rcna1723    

    Weather wise it has been weird, stranger than usual Global Warming induced changes,  the apparent stability of 2021 patterns have been uncanny,  gave results positive of nicer milder much warmer weather in Eastern North America,  and devastating floods in usually very weather quiet British Columbia.  Contrast the 1977 outline of 252 degrees Kelvin and the 2021,  same days,  weather systems flow around this limit,  which greatly explains why B.C. got a greater injection of extremely warmed North Pacific air.   

Prelude to the Late Great Arctic Ocean summer sea ice, the writing is in the air

 ~There is a minimal,  but valuable,  effort to measure Arctic sea ice in its 3d nature

~It is about to vanish in summer,  this is one way to  know it:

  October November Canadian Arctic Archipelago Upper air profiles have evolved.  They are more like Southern Canadian ones.  The main reason is the disappearance of sea ice,  mainly now in its thickness.  This allows heat from the even warmer ocean to transform the lower troposphere.  In effect cancelling the build up of winter to a lesser degree of magnitude.  The difference between tropopause temperature and tropospheric maxima has grown,  the tropopause is usually much higher,  the inversion heights from surface have dropped.  But in particular temperature profile maxima to surface lapse rate has shrunken significantly since 2019, indicating a massive warming, therefore thinning of sea ice,  no longer thick enough similar in nature to deep frozen land.   It would take a much larger intense study to confirm how wide scale this phenomena is,  it would take a huge recalculation of historical measurements particular data points from all stations, not readily available on internet, in order to pinpoint exactly when the Arctic summer sea ice will completely melt.  Assessing atmospheric measurements far more rich in data, would make it easier to predict,  the keen  Arctic Atmosphere mirroring current Arctic sea ice state, is a work around way to measure over all sea ice thickness,  but seems it wont be long before it will all gone.  When the High Arctic Upper Air becomes close to resemble the subArctic of the 80's (its warming there as well) , ie Hudson Bay for instance,  we will have a better idea.  WD November 21 2021