Water temperature +.9 C at 77.8N 157.1W last report of Mass Buoy 2015j

   Near 80 N water temperatures still with quite a lot of ice cover, was measured a very warm if not hot +.91 C July 22,  by Mass Buoy 2015J last report.   The arrow points to very near its location.   Well further away from wide open water.      This temperature means bye bye sea ice,  and mass buoy 2015J should turn soon into a boat at any moment.   What surprises is how dense the ice was with so warm a water under.   The bottom thermistors read -1 C which may be more accurate,  however throughout the winter the Buoy appears to have recorded very good water temps.Mass Buoy 2015f,  well further North 83.49 North,  has -1.4 C water.

      There are 2 more locations with 1 degree sst much nearer the Pole,  likely retrieved from remote sensing.   Those in circles are in doubt,  not necessarily incorrect,  although the one North of Greenland +28C may be judged incorrect.     Note Chukchi sea +10  C North of Novaya Zemlya +6 C,  incredibly warm waters.
WDJuly29,2016

What does JAXA AMSR2 68377 km2 sea ice loss in a day looks like? Less than what it seems

     Simply looking at statistics gives one impression, looking at everything possible gives the holistic construct, a much better informed analytical approach.  In one day,  we really see whole scale melt damage throughout the vulnerable not tide compacted remnant of Arctic sea ice.  The small 990 mb or so Cyclone did quite a thing to the Laptev North of East Siberian sea"bite",  the Beaufort in origin wide water  expanse is in the process of growing with still thousands of little ice islands,  some are with oldest ice from the CAB ridging zone.  Fram Strait equally is about to have much smaller sea ice extent.  The Wrangel Island sea ice Panhandle is about to loose touch with the last place Mammoths existed and is disintegrating everywhere.    The Northwest passage strongest sea ice is collapsing quickly.  The only thing holding steady is West Laptev sea,  very interesting this year,  but that is another subject.  68377 km2 gives an idea,  the real action is spread over several times that number.  WD July29, 2016

See through Cyclone; not so much clouds

    This very artistic, elegant, cyclone North of East Siberian sea is not very cloudy.  Adds to the complexity of already mixed up ice, along with with different weather features. wdJuly27,2016

Very little wind significant change North of New Siberian Islands

   Again the larger question is how already badly broken up 2016 sea ice is reacting to Cyclonic winds?   Let's see what merely an approaching Cyclone did North of Siberia after July 19:

       There are at least 2 concurring major contributors to icescape dilution: one is critical temperature of sea ice core nearing multiple possible melting points, 2 is the  approaching Cyclone covered in the previous article.   Spreading and shattering ice around and very likely accelerating melting. Let's see the net effect with 2 clearest pictures:

      Devastation with very little wind, water to ice extent ratios have increased substantially, many ice pans have shattered and are difficult to recognize.    This is a small example of what a truly powerful Cyclone can do.   WD July 27,2016

 

Arctic Cyclone storm surge effects on already badly broken 2016 sea ice

   It is really in reality deja vu,   August 5 2012 had a deep cyclone apparently clearing sea ice very quickly.  It was so, but there was pre-conditioning of sea ice,  already on the verge of melting completely, with ice column temperatures at or near the melting points of saltier bottom and top fresh water like ice.  The Cyclone opened up sea ice much further,  stirred the sea water column where there was open water.     Now we have a somewhat slower, quasi stationary approx 990 mb large Low North of East Siberian Sea.  Sea ice was already broken up before it flayed it further,  it will be very interesting to see if there has been residual effects similar with 2012 Aug 5 event:

    Cyclone July 26 opened up the ice much further,  black water is seen near its centre,  a particular place where sea water level rises more than at the far perimeter of the cloud waves.  Prior to the cyclone,  North of East Siberian sea was already quite open,  part of the "Laptev bite" look.    What is very interesting is the storm centre black zone.

     What is the difference with 2012?

July 26 2012 same area had sea ice far less broken,   which eventually melted/compacted at minima.    Although the East Siberian sea of 2016 had similar open water to the Laptev sea of 2012.

We can conclude from AMSR2 data and the NASA overviews that this Cyclone had not quite the same effect as August 2012 Low,  after all it was not as strong,  but did indeed create a great deal more open water,  highlighting the fragility of sea ice surely to vanish come mid September, especially if the ratio of open water to sea ice extent was increased.  WD July 26,2016   

Beaufort area 400,000 km2 almost permanent broken ice area is clearing/melting.

   Unless it is a big melt year,  end of July usually offers a few clues about coming minima outlook.
This year is no different,  but has its own quirks,  namely an area about 400,000 km2  north of Beaufort sea which had a continuous injection of broken ice pans,    the physics involved is simple
and complex by many varying geophysical parameters.

Ice melts quicker when ice core temperature is close to 0 C.  This is the main reason why melting occurs faster at end of July,  there are of course other factors,  which is warmer air and sea temperatures,  but it is very difficult for surface air to warm a whole lot with the presence of sea ice2 meters below.  

      From the constant presence of ice a summer temperature battle ensues,  and thus temperatures without a great deal of very warm advection injections remain steady, especially by latent heat  of fusion of ice, the warming can't really be measured by air temps.   Eventually the most vulnerable sea ice, an ice pan surrounded by warmed sea water, vanishes quickly.  The melting point in the ice column was  achieved by many pieces of sea ice as per July 25 2016, achieving a  greater melt than all previous days.   

Before July 25,  the smallest blocks of ice didn't survive very long,  leaving the larger ones to travel Westwards.  However now is the time when the greatest melting can happen,  the heat transferred to sea ice, a continuous heat sink, renders sea ice to mush to melt to water.      

The only Mass Buoys currently active; 2015f 83.11 N 139.14W has an average core temperature above -1 C and strategically located Mass Buoy  2015 J   77.8N 157.16W has similar ice core temps.  These buoys ice surface  are more or less not surrounded by open water. Again, the latent heat of fusion of sea ice captures a lot of the heat otherwise manifested warmer on ground surfaces of the near by archipelago Islands. 

Summer DMI model calculation of surface air temperatures appear usually steady,  over all past summers, rarely at great variance with about +1.5 C at peak.  This is a good example of sea ice moderating air temperatures when the latent heat of fusion is active.    The wild variances over the dark season are due to warm air advection largely by Northwards penetrating cyclones, these carry a much wider temperature difference than sea ice during winter,   summer cyclones apparently do not give such effects, which is quite fascinating.   wd July25,2016

Laptev bite vs Beaufort melting zone; there is a substantial difference

     June 21 to July 23 2016 AMSR2 Shizuku satellite displays many melting areas,  but the two most prominent have different features,  Beaufort receives a great deal of sea ice from the Gyre current,  most ice pans usually perish westwards,  some survive long and cause a distorted calculation of apparent more sea ice due to the 15% extent criteria.  The Laptev 'bite' has no such qualms,  when it sweeps Northwards there is no sea ice replenishment process.  We may conclude that most surviving ice in Beaufort Area will melt and eventually cause rather large extent drop numbers.  Furthermore the Laptev sea Northward expansion has a huge potential since Northward ice displaces very fluidly. A double "arch" water area is forming along 150E longitude line widening water zones Eastwards and Westwards from sea ice displacements to the North all the way to 85N and likely Polewards very fast.  WD july25,2016

Laptev bites not so crunchy Northern ice, North Pole is beginning to open.

     A closer look at the North Pole to Russian sector ice,  July 18-22 2016.  A very peculiar split of sea ice movement,  one to the Northeast the other to the Northwest at the point where the Laptev Sea appears to bite the ice pack at 80 N and 150E longitude.    The old ice Guard of the Pole seems to scatter accordingly.  WD july 24, 2016

Radically different melt seasons 4 years apart. 2016-2012 comparison.

   July13 to 23 2016,  we see more or less a standard Melt pattern.  The Laptev "bite", the Beaufort melting zone , Fram Strait particularly flowing a little less than usual.  But we see a huge shatter zone of rubble ice making CAB extent all time lowest.

    Turns out July 13-23 2012, was largely atypical,  with the Gyre movement appearing to turn counterclockwise,  with the Beaufort melt zone receiving ice From Northeastern Russian seas.
Missing with 2016,  the CAB huge shatter zone.  In this sequence ,  2012 appears to have a stronger CAB ice pack.  But most of the ice in its peripheral shatter zones vanished.  Leaving to wonder if 2016 will have no ice at all  South of the Pole in the Russian sector.WD july 23,2016

Shattering expectations and sea ice 2016

~Great differences with 2013 demonstrated

         How come 2016 melt season is not the same as 2013?  After all there were some lingering persistent cyclones,  apparently cooling the red hot warmed Arctic in June.  First of all July 21,2013 looked like this:

    A well covered Beaufort area to persist till refreeze, it was not exciting to watch, especially following 2012 melt season.    While Beaufort Sea ice melted long before July 21 2016.

     There was also an incredible "Big Blue" sky period in Spring 2016,  the Gyre turned clockwise under the influence of very long lasting Anticyclones despite Earths thickest ice pans,  for months the Gyre current was reinvigorated in spring set for summer.    This transformed Beaufort Area  into a sea ice melting region.  Effectively emptying the Current Arctic Basin of a lot of its ice,  thinning it to the point where there is now a whole lot more sea water in the mix, more than ever, making CAB sea ice extent lowest on record at this current date of year:

      Beaufort Region became the prime Sea ice melting zone,    shattering,  thinning and melting sea ice during July 5 to 21 2016 period especially due to lingering Cyclones whisking by slowly combined with a persistent Gyre rotation.  This shattering of sea ice caused a somewhat sluggish melt rate at times,  in particular when winds spread out the ice in smaller parts more evenly.    But open water/ice mix extent of sea ice is rather of disastrous quality,  ready to vanish in a few days.  The  thinning of most of a good chunk CAB can be seen on July 21,  with the best most strongest ice heading towards the melting block.    Brings into question whether sea ice extent numbers really tells the pictures as above,  thanks to NASA we understand reality better.

           2016 Melt season is only similar to 2013 due to the persistent cyclones hugging open water areas.  The holistic icescape look is completely different,  and so is the weather, especially  temperature and circulation,  with often 2016 North Pole Highs and the occasional mini dipoles in the 2007 locations.   This scattering of sea ice will lead to massive melt extent numbers,  because the 15% of grid content will drop to 0.     WD  July 22,2016