Anatomy of doomed sea ice

~Optical Effects from atmospheric refraction help reveal thickness of buoy ice

2014b presently has significant temperature variations at top of ice and snow layer now likely water, because thermistors measure above 0 C temperatures:

  Ice Buoy Temperature chart 10 cm apart thermistors,  starting from likely at snow top to 310 centimetres in sea water, Day 25 04:00 12:00 UTC and 26 00:00 UTC. 

    But where is the bottom of ice ?  It is likely where temperatures do not vary at thermistor 18 (180 cm),  since top fresh water starts at thermistor 7 (70 cm depth),  the ice is likely about 110 cm thick.  What I have learned from 

refraction studies serves well,   there is a wide variance of diurnal temperatures caused by solar forcing typical of sea ice (snow as well),  either on very top or at highest ice layers.  On the other hand,  sea water may not vary in temperature as much because it is so insulated by thick layer of ice and snow.  From this reasoning, the bottom melted by 20 cm and top by 40.   Sea ice freezes sea water at -1.6 to -1.8 C,  but the ice column has rejected salt,  so the melting temperature of sea ice becomes higher gradually from bottom to top. 

Healthier sea ice is monitored by nearby 2014C

   2014C is further to the South and East of 2014B by 247 nautical miles.  The said ice thickness may be off by 30 cm,  with about 150 cm thickness given that below thermistor 19, the temperatures are stratified with very little diurnal thermal variances.   

 WD June 26,2014  

20114b interesting cloudy vs sunny thermal variances

  Still of the ice world buoy2004b on day 26 June 2014 appeared to have very little resonance with the temperature diurnal effect from above the ice.  NOAA observations seem to indicate extensive cloudiness. Or partially sunny conditions:

  With more sunshine or higher clouds more or less confirmed by 2013f buoy, with a site camera, we can note where resonating thermal effects cross the air snow/ice barrier. Diurnal temperatures in the ice column are more prominent. WD June28,2014   

The COAST is TOASTING sea ice.

During same time period the Beaufort sea opened extremely fast,  courtesy NASA EOSDIS,

June 21 (the one with less ice) 2nd to June 23, 2014.   

Bottom black bar is NOAA VIS HRPT June 22, 2014 at 20:50 UTC.  The second is 22:34 UTC 1 hour 44 minutes later.  North of Alaska coast separating from its ice at staggering speed. There is a lot of melting combined with winds and current doing this. Last year the same retreat occurred 3 weeks later and was much smaller and slower.

From optical based hypothesis to reality

~Must consider present snow layer as an upward extension of sea ice

~~Hypothesis largely confirmed!!!

   A typical day of a buoy,  taking temperatures 10 cm intervals from top of snow downwards.   The optical refraction method confirms that this buoy is functional!!!

  Please read hypothesis:

http://eh2r.blogspot.ca/2014/05/finding-sea-ice-underside-melting-at.html

   Consider snow layer as ice.   Then read the buoy data (written colour are my comments):
Yellow:  surface temperature,  blue background:  peak minima temperature in snow or ice layer.  Grey background is ice thickness in meters……:

April 7,2014:

~Buoy 2014b  72.54N 149.52W

Date,Latitude (degrees),Longitude (degrees),Quality (+/- km),Air Temp (C),Air Pressure (mb),Snow Surface Position (m),Ice Thickness(m),Ice Surface Position (m),Ice Bottom Position(m),T1 (C),T2 (C),T3 (C),T4 (C),T5 (C),T6 (C),T7 (C),T8 (C),T9 (C),T10 (C),T11 (C),T12 (C),T13 (C),T14 (C),T15 (C),T16 (C),T17 (C),T18 (C),T19 (C),T20 (C),T21 (C),T22 (C),T23 (C),T24 (C),T25 (C),T26 (C),T27 (C),T28 

(C),T29 (C),T30 (C),T31 ©

Overnight lower atmospheric INVERSION,  horizon appears high:

"04/07/2014 12:00","     72.5376","   -149.5226","GPS","    -28.61","   1012.55","      0.03","      1.54","      0.00","     -1.54","    -29.14","    -29.07","    -28.84","    -26.98","    -19.70","    -15.81","    -14.15","    -13.06","    -11.88","    -10.75","     -9.74","     -8.71","     -7.85","     -6.93","     -5.84","     -4.96","     -4.02","     -2.88","     -1.69","     -1.63","     -1.57","     -1.67","     -1.69","     -1.57","     -1.57","     -1.59","     -1.65","     -1.57","     -1.57","     -1.57","     -1.63"

Gradual diurnal warming … It was likely sunny.  

"04/07/2014 13:00","","","","    -29.03","   1012.68","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","",""

"04/07/2014 14:00","","","","    -28.61","   1012.68","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","",""

"04/07/2014 15:00","","","","    -27.96","   1012.41","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","",""

Horizon near true astronomical Horizon:

"04/07/2014 16:00","     72.5374","   -149.5243","GPS","    -26.19","   1012.41","      0.03","      1.54","      0.00","     -1.54","    -25.97","    -26.16","    -26.05","    -24.57","    -19.26","    -16.06","    -14.40","    -13.25","    -11.94","    -10.81","     -9.80","     -8.77","     -7.79","     -6.93","     -5.84","     -4.96","     -4.08","     -2.88","     -1.69","     -1.63","     -1.63","     -1.67","     -1.69","     -1.57","     -1.57","     -1.53","     -1.65","     -1.57","     -1.50","     -1.57","     -1.63"

Further gradual warming:

"04/07/2014 17:00","","","","    -24.40","   1012.21","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","",""

"04/07/2014 18:00","","","","    -23.01","   1012.07","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","",""

"04/07/2014 19:00","","","","    -23.06","   1011.94","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","",""

Close to LAN,  snow/ice temperature minima lowers downwards towards ice bottom,  horizon dropped significantly as well:

"04/07/2014 20:00","     72.5372","   -149.5284","GPS","    -22.86","   1011.94","      0.03","      1.54","      0.00","     -1.54","    -15.09","    -15.98","    -17.01","    -18.69","    -17.49","    -15.81","    -14.46","    -13.31","    -12.07","    -10.87","     -9.80","     -8.71","     -7.85","     -6.86","     -5.84","     -4.96","     -4.02","     -2.82","     -1.69","     -1.63","     -1.63","     -1.61","     -1.69","     -1.57","     -1.50","     -1.59","     -1.59","     -1.57","     -1.57","     -1.57","     -1.63"

Surface temperature stall:

"04/07/2014 21:00","","","","    -22.02"," 

 1012.14","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","",""

"04/07/2014 22:00","","","","    -21.42","   1012.07","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","",""

"04/07/2014 23:00","","","","    -21.47","   1012.01","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","",""

Post-local apparent noon horizon at lowest point, there was a significant lower atmosphere adiabatic lapse rate:

"04/08/2014 00:00","     72.5367","   -149.5333","GPS","    -21.06","   1011.73","      0.02","      1.54","      0.00","     -1.54","     -5.96","     -4.02","     -5.29","    -13.33","    -16.17","    -15.37","    -14.21","    -13.31","    -12.07","    -10.87","     -9.86","     -8.77","     -7.79","     -6.86","     -5.84","     -4.90","     -4.08","     -2.82","     -1.69","     -1.63","     -1.63","     -1.67","     -1.69","     -1.57","     -1.50","     -1.59","     -1.65","     -1.57","     -1.57","     -1.57","     -1.63"

"04/08/2014 01:00","","","","    -20.47","   1011.60","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","",""

"04/08/2014 02:00","","","","    -21.28","   1011.53","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","",""

"04/08/2014 03:00","","","","    -22.29","   1011.33","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","",""

Horizon still low despite slight cooling, suspect latent heat of fusion event

(perhaps at 01:00) where bottom ice froze by 1 cm but released heat:

"04/08/2014 04:00","     72.5363","   -149.5390","GPS","    -22.95","   1011.33","      0.03","      1.55","      0.00","     -1.55","    -13.33","    -13.71","    -15.75","    -18.12","    -16.48","    -15.12","    -14.02","    -13.25","    -12.13","    -10.93","     -9.93","     -8.83","     -7.85","     -6.93","     -5.84","     -4.96","     -4.08","     -2.88","     -1.69","     -1.63","     -1.63","     -1.67","     -1.69","     -1.57","     -1.50","     -1.53","     -1.59","     -1.57","     -1.50","     -1.57","     -1.63"

Diurnal evening cooling:

"04/08/2014 05:00","","","","    -24.79","   1011.19","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","",""

"04/08/2014 06:00","","","","    -26.44","   1011.06","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","",""

"04/08/2014 07:00","","","","    -26.92","   1011.06","","","","","","","","",""

 Inversion started a few hours prior,  horizon rose and was rising further; Snow/ice layer cooled more than surface air:

"04/08/2014 08:00","     72.5366","   -149.5449","GPS","    -26.74","   1011.06","      0.03","      1.55","      0.00","     -1.55","    -27.36","    -27.49","    -27.00","    -24.45","    -18.25","    -15.37","    -14.08","    -13.18","    -12.13","    -11.00","     -9.99","     -8.90","     -7.91","     -6.99","     -5.90","     -5.02","     -4.08","     -2.88","     -1.76","     -1.63","     -1.63","     -1.67","     -1.69","     -1.57","     -1.57","     -1.59","     -1.59","     -1.57","     -1.50","     -1.57","     -1.63"

"04/08/2014 09:00","","","","    -25.90","  

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------

 On April 7, the measurement times were not in line with specific thermal events on that day, but on April 4  it was a different story:

April 4,  2014:

Pre-LAN horizon was already at low true astronomical horizon (a favourably warm or cloudy day combination),  at this point bottom ice melts earlier:

04/04/2014 12:00","     72.5080","   -149.2189","GPS","    -22.76","   1014.31","      0.03","      1.53","      0.00","     -1.53","    -22.74","    -22.04","    -21.56","    -20.65","    -17.30","    -15.18","    -13.90","    -13.06","    -11.94","    -10.87","     -9.80","     -8.65","     -7.66","     -6.68","     -5.59","     -4.64","     -3.70","     -2.70","     -1.69","     -1.63","     -1.63","     -1.67","     -1.69","     -1.57","     -1.57","     -1.59","     -1.59","     -1.57","     -1.57","     -1.57","     -1.63"

Surface temperature stall:
"04/04/2014 13:00","","","","    -23.22","   1014.24","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","",""

"04/04/2014 14:00","","","","    -23.17","   1014.18","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","",""

"04/04/2014 15:00","","","","    -23.60","   1013.77","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","",""

Horizon was low, surface of snow/ice warms, bottom ice lost 1 cm (needs sonar confirmation):

"04/04/2014 16:00","     72.5125","   -149.2523","GPS","    -23.47","   1013.23","      0.04","      1.52","      0.00","     -1.52","    -23.05","    -22.17","    -21.81","    -21.28","    -17.81","    -15.43","    -14.08","    -13.12","    -11.94","    -10.81","     -9.80","     -8.71","     -7.72","     -6.74","     -5.59","     -4.64","     -3.77","     -2.70","     -1.69","     -1.63","     -1.63","     -1.67","     -1.69","     -1.57","     -1.57","     -1.59","     -1.65","     -1.57","     -1.57","     -1.57","     -1.63"

Very Slow or stalled diurnal warming:

"04/04/2014 17:00","","","","    -23.05","   1013.23","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","",""

"04/04/2014 18:00","","","","    -22.86","   1012.89","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","",""

"04/04/2014 19:00","","","","    -22.50","   1012.68","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","",""

1 hour prior local apparent noon , lowest horizon:

"04/04/2014 20:00","     72.5179","   -149.2950","GPS","    -21.87","   1012.28","      0.03","      1.53","      0.00","     -1.53","    -19.58","    -19.58","    -19.28","    -19.32","    -17.30","    -15.37","    -14.08","    -13.12","    -11.88","    -10.81","     -9.74","     -8.65","     -7.66","     -6.74","     -5.59","     -4.71","     -3.77","     -2.57","     -1.69","     -1.63","     -1.63","     -1.67","     -1.69","     -1.57","     -1.57","     -1.53","     -1.65","     -1.57","     -1.57","     -1.57","     -1.63"

Slow surface temperature stall:

"04/04/2014 21:00","","","","    -20.94","   1011.94","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","",""

"04/04/2014 22:00","","","","    -20.39"," 

 "04/04/2014 23:00","","","","    -19.75","   1011.60","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","",

"","","","","","","","","","",""

After LAN peak warming period consists of surface to air interface Adiabatic profile, horizon was low, ice minima at lowest point nearer middle of ice column.

"04/05/2014 00:00","     72.5258","   -149.3425","GPS","    -18.82","   1010.92","      0.03","      1.53","      0.00","     -1.53","    -13.77","    -14.53","    -13.66","    -15.47","    -16.04","    -14.99","    -13.90","    -13.06","    -11.88","    -10.75","     -9.74","     -8.65","     -7.66","     -6.68","     -5.59","     -4.64","     -3.77","     -2.63","     -1.69","     -1.63","     -1.63","     -1.67","     -1.69","     -1.57","     -1.57","     -1.53","     -1.59","     -1.57","     -1.57","     -1.57","     -1.63"

Surface Temperature stall:

"04/05/2014 01:00","","","","    -18.68","   1010.72","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","",""

"04/05/2014 02:00","","","","    -18.61","   1010.58","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","",

 Snow/ice coldest layer rose towards surface: 

"","","","","","","","","","",""

"04/05/2014 03:00","","","","    -19.10","   1010.24","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","",""

"04/05/2014 04:00","     72.5327","   -149.3823","GPS","    -19.16","   1009.97","      0.03","      1.53","      0.00","     -1.53","    -17.55","    -17.87","    -17.96","    -17.56","    -15.92","    -14.74","    -13.77","    -12.99","    -11.94","    -10.87","     -9.80","     -8.71","     -7.72","     -6.74","     -5.65","     -4.77","     -3.83","     -2.76","     -1.69","     -1.63","     -1.63","     -1.67","     -1.69","     -1.51","     -1.57","     -1.59","     -1.59","     -1.57","     -1.57","     -1.57","     -1.63"

"04/05/2014 05:00","","","","    -18.86","   1009.56","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","",""

"04/05/2014 06:00","","","","    -18.89","   1009.43","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","",""

"04/05/2014 07:00","","","","    -18.99","   1009.29","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","",""

 Inversion, beginning of "ice wall",   horizon risen (possible maximum bottom melt, needs calibration):

"04/05/2014 08:00","     72.5359","   -149.4102","GPS","    -19.21","   1009.16","      0.03","      1.52","      0.00","     -1.52","    -19.39","    -18.88","    -18.71","    -18.12","    -16.10","    -14.74","    -13.71","    -12.93","    -11.94","    -10.87","     -9.86","     -8.77","     -7.79","     -6.80","     -5.71","     -4.77","     -3.83","     -2.76","     -1.69","     -1.63","     -1.57","     -1.67","     -1.69","     -1.57","     -1.57","     -1.53","     -1.65","     -1.57","     -1.50","     -1.57","     -1.63"

"04/05/2014 09:00","","","","    -19.19","   1008.89","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","",""
"04/05/2014 10:00","","",""," -19.27"," 1008.89","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","" "04/05/2014 11:00","","",""," -19.28"," 1008.55","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","",""

    Sometimes prior, bottom refroze, released latent heat of fusion warming throughout entire ice (ice thickness should be re-confirmed):

 04/05/2014 12:00","     72.5374","   -149.4334","GPS","    -19.28","   1008.48","      0.03","      1.53","      0.00","     -1.53","    -19.13","    -18.76","    -18.52","    -18.00","    -16.17","

---- ----------------------------------------------

   Hypothesis presented here confirmed by buoy.  But buoy data are really good for specific physical details.  Optical data is immediate and comprises all of this same information in general,  but in physical precise terms, all obtained in one swift glimpse….

___________________________________
NASA EOSDIS confirmed clear day :

     April 9 2014,  buoy 2014B:

    Evening prior diurnal cooling:

"04/09/2014 05:00","","","","    -21.08","   1010.85","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","",""
"04/09/2014 06:00","","","","    -22.22","   1010.99","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","",""
"04/09/2014 07:00","","","","    -24.69","   1011.12","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","",""

"04/09/2014 08:00","     72.5308","   -149.5788","GPS","    -26.22","   1011.67","      0.05","      1.54","      0.00","     -1.54","    -26.22","    -26.35","    -26.30","    -26.09","    -21.54","    -15.43","    -13.90","    -13.12","    -12.13","    -11.06","    -10.11","     -9.02","     -8.04","     -7.12","     -6.03","     -5.08","     -4.14","     -2.95","     -1.76","     -1.63","     -1.63","     -1.67","     -1.69","     -1.51","     -1.57","     -1.53","     -1.59","     -1.57","     -1.57","     -1.57","     -1.63"

  Next Day Morning cooling continues:

 
"04/09/2014 09:00","","","","    -27.07","   1012.14","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","",""
"04/09/2014 10:00","","","","    -26.98","   1012.75","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","",""
"04/09/2014 11:00","","","","    -28.08","   1013.23","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","",""

   Bottom refreeze at about 10:00 UTC.  Note the surface warming. At 12:00 UTC, there was likely a 10 C/100 meter inversion.   This is significant enough to make special optical"effects"
"04/09/2014 12:00","     72.5309","   -149.5794","GPS","    -28.63","   1013.70","      0.04","      1.55","      0.00","     -1.55","    -28.82","    -28.82","    -28.71","    -28.57","    -23.25","    -16.00","    -14.02","    -13.12","    -12.07","    -11.00","    -10.05","     -9.02","     -8.04","     -7.12","     -6.03","     -5.08","     -4.14","     -2.95","     -1.76","     -1.63","     -1.57","     -1.67","     -1.69","     -1.57","     -1.57","     -1.53","     -1.59","     -1.57","     -1.57","     -1.63","     -1.63"

   Sun -4.7 degrees below the horizon,  sunrise may be visible due to surface to air inversion:
"04/09/2014 13:00","","","","    -29.04","   1014.18","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","",""
"04/09/2014 14:00","","","","    -29.44","   1014.58","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","",""
"04/09/2014 15:00","","","","    -29.94","   1014.99","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","",""

    Sun 7.4 degrees above the horizon, enough to warm the snow/ice surface warmer than surface air,  the apparent horizon dropped  a lot, coldest ice layer sinks.  
"04/09/2014 16:00","     72.5309","   -149.5785","GPS","    -29.65","   1015.40","      0.05","      1.54","      0.00","     -1.54","    -29.07","    -29.26","    -29.22","    -29.07","    -24.07","    -16.50","    -14.21","    -13.18","    -12.07","    -11.00","    -10.05","     -9.02","     -8.10","     -7.12","     -6.03","     -5.15","     -4.21","     -3.01","     -1.76","     -1.63","     -1.57","     -1.67","     -1.69","     -1.57","     -1.57","     -1.53","     -1.59","     -1.57","     -1.57","     -1.57","     -1.57"

    Diurnal warming from sunshine, 

"04/09/2014 17:00","","","","    -29.56","   

1016.21","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","",""
"04/09/2014 18:00","","","","    -28.92","   1016.48","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","",""
"04/09/2014 19:00","","","","    -27.78","   1016.89","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","",""

 Sun 22.75 degrees above the horizon, coldest ice layer got deeper below surface,

the horizon was low:

"04/09/2014 20:00","     72.5308","   -149.5734","GPS","    -26.88","   1017.57","      0.04","      1.54","      0.00","     -1.54","    -23.88","    -24.89","    -24.78","    -25.08","    -21.35","    -16.19","    -14.34","    -13.25","    -12.07","    -11.00","    -10.05","     -8.96","     -8.04","     -7.12","     -6.03","     -5.08","     -4.21","     -3.01","     -1.76","     -1.63","     -1.63","     -1.67","     -1.69","     -1.57","     -1.57","     -1.53","     -1.59","     -1.51","     -1.50","     -1.57","     -1.63"
"04/09/2014 21:00","","","","    -25.81","   1017.98","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","",""
"04/09/2014 22:00","","","","    -25.17","   1018.59","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","",""
"04/09/2014 23:00","","","","    -24.20","   1018.93","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","",""
  The more than 22 degree in altitude sun significantly warmed the top of snow

by almost 6 degrees, the top ice layers even more, because of twin thermal heating from sun and sea.  

"04/10/2014 00:00","     72.5304","   -149.5623","GPS","    -23.71","   1018.86","      0.04","      1.54","      0.00","     -1.54","    -15.85","    -17.05","    -16.57","    -16.86","    -17.62","    -15.62","    -14.27","    -13.31","    -12.07","    -11.00","    -10.05","     -8.96","     -8.04","     -7.12","     -6.03","     -5.08","     -4.21","     -3.01","     -1.82","     -1.63","     -1.63","     -1.67","     -1.69","     -1.51","     -1.57","     -1.59","     -1.65","     -1.57","     -1.57","     -1.57","     -1.63"

Lowest horizon,  surface temperature stall,  bottom melting:

"04/10/2014 01:00","","","","    -23.43","   1018.99","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","",""
"04/10/2014 02:00","","","","    -23.47","   1018.99","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","",""
"04/10/2014 03:00","","","","    -24.04","   1019.20","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","",""

 Lower sun. Diurnal cooling well in play, coldest layer rises:
"04/10/2014 04:00","     72.5299","   -149.5554","GPS","    -25.33","   1019.20","      0.04","      1.54","      0.00","     -1.54","    -14.53","    -16.23","    -18.78","    -19.45","    -17.05","    -15.24","    -14.08","    -13.25","    -12.13","    -11.06","    -10.05","     -9.02","     -8.04","     -7.12","     -6.03","     -5.15","     -4.21","     -3.07","     -1.82","     -1.63","     -1.63","     -1.67","     -1.69","     -1.57","     -1.50","     -1.53","     -1.65","     -1.57","     -1.50","     -1.57","     -1.63"
"04/10/2014 05:00","","","","    -26.97","   1019.20","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","",""
"04/10/2014 06:00","","","","    -28.61","   1019.20","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","",""
"04/10/2014 07:00","","","","    -28.91","   1019.33","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","",""

"04/10/2014 08:00","     72.5301","   -149.5535","GPS","    -29.70","   1019.47","      0.05","      1.54","      0.00","     -1.54","    -30.09","    -30.15","    -29.79","    -27.17","    -18.95","    -15.43","    -14.08","    -13.25","    -12.13","    -11.06","    -10.05","     -9.02","     -8.10","     -7.12","     -6.09","     -5.15","     -4.27","     -3.07","     -1.88","     -1.63","     -1.63","     -1.67","     -1.69","     -1.57","     -1.50","     -1.59","     -1.65","     -1.57","     -1.57","     -1.57","     -1.63"

Sun elevation -8.9 degrees

"04/10/2014 09:00","","","","    -30.14","   1019.47","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","",""
"04/10/2014 10:00","","","","    -30.53","   1019.67","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","",""

Bottom refroze latent heat of fusion released
"04/10/2014 11:00","","","","    -29.99","   1019.47","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","",""

 Sun Elevation -7.2 degrees, entering dawn light, ice bottom froze 2 cm,  the heat produced has changed the diurnal cooling rate, coldest layer back at top of snow, sun and more light will be seen much earlier:
"04/10/2014 12:00","     72.5304","   -149.5509","GPS","    -30.35","   1019.20","      0.05","      1.56","      0.00","     -1.56","    -31.04","    -31.04","    -30.68","    -28.00","    -19.51","    -15.75","    -14.27","    -13.31","    -12.13","    -11.06","    -10.11","     -9.09","     -8.10","     -7.18","     -6.09","     -5.21","     -4.27","     -3.07","     -1.88","     -1.63","     -1.63","     -1.67","     -1.69","     -1.57","     -1.57","     -1.59","     -1.65","     -1.57","     -1.57","     -1.57","     -1.63"

--------------------------------------------------

It seems plausible that a diurnal cooling refreeze may induce further thickness increase than just the earlier melted layer. 

----------------------------------------------------

It is not always that simple,  when the weather is cloudy with some occasional clearing, accretion is chaotic,  here is one example:

VERY SLOW accretion (complicated autumnal action)

Buoy 2013l An October day of data acquisition over Arctic Basin Near Alaska:

"10/12/2013 08:00","","","","     -9.55","   1012.25","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","",""
"10/12/2013 09:00","","","","     -9.09","   1012.25","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","",""
"10/12/2013 10:00","","","","     -8.37","   1012.25","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","",""

The ice is thick enough to stop "super accretion" but still most of the time warmer than the air, an adiabatic surface to air interface should increase thickness though:

"10/12/2013 11:00","     75.2560","   -154.5052","GPS","     -8.38","   1012.18","      0.09","      1.00","      0.00","     -1.00","     -6.59","     -5.46","     -4.52","     -3.95","     -3.51","     -3.14","     -2.70","     -2.13","     -1.57","     -1.50","     -1.44","     -1.50","     -1.57","     -1.50","     -1.50","     -1.57","     -1.57","     -1.63","     -1.57","     -1.44","     -1.57","     -1.44","     -1.57","     -1.38","     -1.38","     -1.50","     -1.44","     -1.44","     -1.44","     -1.50","     -1.50"

Detached diurnal warming all the action is in the air,  there is no sense of temperature direction:
"10/12/2013 12:00","","","","     -8.66","   1012.24","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","",""
"10/12/2013 13:00","","","","     -9.17","   1012.04","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","",""
"10/12/2013 14:00","","","","     -9.56","   1012.18","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","",""
"10/12/2013 15:00","     75.2704","   -154.5744","GPS","    -10.87","   1012.38","      0.10","      1.00","      0.00","     -1.00","     -6.97","     -5.40","     -4.46","     -3.95","     -3.58","     -3.14","     -2.70","     -2.13","     -1.57","     -1.50","     -1.44","     -1.50","     -1.57","     -1.50","     -1.50","     -1.57","     -1.57","     -1.63","     -1.57","     -1.44","     -1.57","     -1.44","     -1.50","     -1.38","     -1.38","     -1.44","     -1.38","     -1.44","     -1.44","     -1.57","     -1.50"

Probable diurnal cooling (cloud clears):
"10/12/2013 16:00","","","","    -11.59","   1012.45","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","",""
"10/12/2013 17:00","","","","    -12.38","   1012.39","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","",""
"10/12/2013 18:00","","","","    -13.77","   1012.38","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","",""
"10/12/2013 19:00","     75.2808","   -154.6458","GPS","    -13.36","   1012.25","      0.09","      1.00","      0.00","     -1.00","     -8.79","     -5.90","     -4.52","     -4.02","     -3.58","     -3.14","     -2.70","     -2.20","     -1.57","     -1.50","     -1.44","     -1.50","     -1.57","     -1.50","     -1.50","     -1.57","     -1.57","     -1.63","     -1.57","     -1.44","     -1.57","     -1.44","     -1.50","     -1.38","     -1.38","     -1.44","     -1.44","     -1.44","     -1.44","     -1.50","     -1.50"
"10/12/2013 20:00","","","","    -13.12","   1012.25","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","",""
"10/12/2013 21:00","","","","    -13.47","   1012.39","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","",""
"10/12/2013 22:00","","","","    -13.36","   1012.25","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","",""
"10/12/2013 23:00","     75.2940","   -154.7277","GPS","    -12.99","   1011.98","      0.09","      1.00","      0.00","     -1.00","     -9.48","     -6.28","     -4.71","     -4.08","     -3.64","     -3.20","     -2.70","     -2.13","     -1.57","     -1.50","     -1.44","     -1.50","     -1.50","     -1.50","     -1.50","     -1.57","     -1.57","     -1.63","     -1.57","     -1.44","     -1.57","     -1.44","     -1.57","     -1.38","     -1.38","     -1.50","     -1.44","     -1.44","     -1.44","     -1.50","     -1.50"
"10/12/2013 23:59","","","","    -12.50","   1011.70","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","",""
"10/13/2013 01:00","","","","    -11.66","   1011.43","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","",""
"10/13/2013 02:00","","","","    -10.92","   1011.16","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","",""
"10/13/2013 03:00","     75.3098","   -154.8211","GPS","    -10.40","   1011.02","      0.10","      1.01","      0.00","     -1.01","     -7.79","     -6.09","     -4.83","     -4.20","     -3.70","     -3.20","     -2.70","     -2.20","     -1.57","     -1.50","     -1.44","     -1.50","     -1.57","     -1.50","     -1.50","     -1.57","     -1.57","     -1.63","     -1.57","     -1.44","     -1.57","     -1.44","     -1.50","     -1.38","     -1.38","     -1.50","     -1.44","     -1.44","     -1.44","     -1.50","     -1.50"
"10/13/2013 04:00","","","","     -9.98","   1010.68","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","",""
"10/13/2013 05:00","","","","     -9.54","   1010.34","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","",""
"10/13/2013 06:00","","","","     -8.93","   1010.28","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","",""
"10/13/2013 07:00","     75.3285","   -154.9179","GPS","     -8.02","   1010.07","      0.09","      1.00","      0.00","     -1.00","     -6.78","     -5.71","     -4.83","     -4.27","     -3.76","     -3.26","     -2.76","     -2.20","     -1.57","     -1.44","     -1.44","     -1.50","     -1.50","     -1.50","     -1.50","     -1.57","     -1.57","     -1.63","     -1.50","     -1.44","     -1.50","     -1.44","     -1.50","     -1.38","     -1.38","     -1.44","     -1.44","     -1.44","     -1.44","     -1.50","     -1.50"
"10/13/2013 08:00","","","","     -7.09","   1010.07","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","",""

"10/13/2013 09:00","","","","     -6.23","   1009.80","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","",""
"10/13/2013 10:00","","","","     -5.57","   1009.66","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","",""
"10/13/2013 11:00","     75.3509","   -155.0021","GPS","     -4.94","   1009.53","      0.09","      1.00","      0.00","     -1.00","     -5.33","     -5.21","     -4.71","     -4.27","     -3.76","     -3.26","     -2.76","     -2.20","     -1.57","     -1.50","     -1.44","     -1.50","     -1.57","     -1.50","     -1.50","     -1.57","     -1.57","     -1.63","     -1.57","     -1.44","     -1.57","     -1.44","     -1.50","     -1.38","     -1.38","     -1.50","     -1.44","     -1.44","     -1.44","     -1.50","     -1.50"
"10/13/2013 12:00","","","","     -4.55","   1009.32","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","",""
"10/13/2013 13:00","","","","     -4.06","   1009.19","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","",""
"10/13/2013 14:00","","","","     -3.81","   1009.11","","","","","

  And so it went on until finally a gain, note the presence of an inversion the horizon rose:

"10/13/2013 15:00","     75.3721","   -155.0279","GPS","     -3.23","   1009.53","      0.09","      1.00","      0.00","     -1.00","     -3.95","     -4.58","     -4.52","     -4.14","     -3.76","     -3.32","     -2.76","     -2.20","     -1.57","     -1.50","     -1.44","     -1.50","     -1.50","     -1.50","     -1.50","     -1.50","     -1.57","     -1.63","     -1.57","     -1.44","     -1.57","     -1.44","     -1.57","     -1.38","     -1.44","     -1.44","     -1.38","     -1.44","     -1.44","     -1.50","     -1.50"

   Diurnal cooling, sign of cold air advection or clearing sky:
"10/13/2013 16:00","","","","     -4.21","   1009.80","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","",""
"10/13/2013 17:00","","","","     -5.48","   1010.34","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","",""
"10/13/2013 18:00","","","","     -6.28","   1010.55","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","",""

    Note the increase in thickness was somehow tied with the overnight inversion:
"10/13/2013 19:00","     75.3816","   -154.9967","GPS","     -7.24","   1011.16","      0.09","      1.01","      0.00","     -1.01","     -5.90","     -4.71","     -4.33","     -4.02","     -3.76","     -3.32","     -2.82","     -2.26","     -1.57","     -1.50","     -1.44","     -1.50","     -1.57","     -1.50","     -1.50","     -1.57","     -1.57","     -1.63","     -1.57","     -1.44","     -1.57","     -1.44","     -1.50","     -1.38","     -1.38","     -1.44","     -1.38","     -1.44","     -1.44","     -1.50","     -1.50"
"10/13/2013 20:00","","","","     -8.54","   1011.29","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","",""
"10/13/2013 21:00","","","","    -12.53","   

-------------------------------------------------------------

 Thinner ice mixed with clouds makes the analysis difficult,  if observed visually ,  simultaneously at buoy location,  physical processes understanding would be much more comprehensive.  

  WD June 19-20 2014

HRPT skin temperature muddle

~  Satellite temperature data impossible unless great portions of sea ice are covered with water.
~  Even in coexistence with much colder surface air.
~ An ice sandwich not!
~Buoy data correlates well with some NOAA/NCEP  (June 23 corrections), but doubts still persist.

    The corrections in red were written after I read some quite intriguing higher resolution buoy data...  

    Average "skin" temperature data for recent June days:

 NOAA/ESRL skin temperatures are above 0 C for a great portion of the Arctic ocean.  Very well!
It must be water ponds or wide open water …  (the 0 C average may due to really interesting water under the top of snow,  or something likewise exotic (June 23,2014 )Not so:

   NASA Modis on the 14th of June,  peering through the clouds there are a lot of leads, broken ice.  But no great water coverage (Hence the interesting possible presence of water under top of snow).

     OK here is the problem, NOAA also had much cooler surface temperatures (a look inspired by Neven):

    Same time period surface air,  2 meters high above the ice,  a good deal of it under -2 C.
The adiabatic lapse rate potentially caused could be as large as 1 C/meter or 1000 C per Kilometers.   A geophysical impossibility.  If achievable by artificial means (here the sun may have forced a warming at about  the skin surface) without , it would cause some extraordinary inferior mirages, making the ice look like water though (the optical irony here is sweet).    The constraint for adiabatic lapse rates are governed by gravity and the specific heat capacity of air at constant pressure 10 C  per km.  Unless there is sun on a black surface  (The black surface may be in fact green sea ice),  like a road mirage,  the idea of accepting this data is preposterous  questionable.   The possibility of sea ice existing above surface air temperatures has not been observed optically but for thin newly formed sea ice (the apparent horizon not lowering further than true astronomical horizon turns out the be more complex than I thought, more study is needed).  It is possible by sudden advection of colder air, but this would create rapid cooling of ice surface by adiabatic and convection processes.   But just how  shallow ice pond water above 0 C can subsist with surface air -2 C right above suggests an impossible scenario (Correct,  buoy data suggests diurnal solar forcing followed by rapid cooling on top of ice surface,  its possible by external forcing).  

I rather believe the data was muddled by open water (possible, but solar forcing was more plausible),  which can be +1 C or more,  mixed ice and water surface temperatures are taken as one "skin" perhaps.  Surface temperatures can be equally warmed by the open water.

     My observations have shown that thick ice should be colder than air (correct,  but top of sea ice is greatly affected by sun rays),  especially at this time of year.
However melt ponds would change the surface temperatures.  But since we don't have extensive melt ponds now.  We must consider a lot of open sea water.

  Considering this reasoning, looking back at 2012 the Arctic Ocean was awash with melt ponds or open water:

    Was it an ocean covered with melt Ponds in 2012?

   

   Modis June 14 2012.  …… No,  may be more open water?  Or was the surface temperature giving the same illusion?

         No, but a clue is given by the surface temperatures in the Western sector of 80 N to North Pole, especially the swat in the Alaskan sector of the Pole,  where surface temperatures were +3 C above the ice surface (Here there was   likely bad data because of the solar forcing lesson just learned,  average temperature of top of ice/snow layer should be warmer than surface air,  although there were few buoys in the sector, 2011j did not show such contrasting temperature).  That is more acceptable. However an inversion of 150 C/ 100 meters has never been officially (with great precision) observed naturally,  as far as I know,  another impossibility has been recorded as data.  Since no melt ponds were observed, the 0 + "skin" temperature was equally impossible (not so, very possible), unless there was a great deal of open sea water , not apparently present  (There was the sun capable of warming top of ice/snow layer by 6 C or more, an incredible warming).

     Conclusion:

        Arctic "Skin"  temperatures and surface temperatures by NCEP are to be taken with a lot of extrapolation in mind, especially at spring time when temperatures between ice top and air become close to 0. Unless somehow re-calibrated,  or with open water areas in mind.  I suggest field observations from buoys,  or optical refraction horizon measurements to correct the apparent mis-calibration.    For those avid sea ice followers,  use buoy data,  whenever if ever available.   2012 surface temperatures should be compared with 2014 strictly with buoy data for greater precision.  WD June 16, 2014

     Conclusion correction June 23, 2014

     I  still some doubt about about NCEP skin data vs air temperature during the period when snow and ice melts amongst open leads.  Considering Buoy data comparisons,  2014 data looks more reasonable with NCEP rather than 2012.  Buoy data should be prime and NCEP always useful but with the seasonal faults cited kept in mind.  

Arctic Ocean lake models

~Smaller,  much easier to understand Arctic lakes are great examples of sea ice melting processes

   June 1 Northern Quebec Picture.  Note the lakes which are mostly frozen are the biggest ones, the land lost its snow carpet.  All seems to be normal.  Except here in this single picture we can see all sea ice melting processing in one swift glance.    First the land,  which like Siberia or Northern Canada,
sea ice does not melt first, but rather the snow over land.  But here is the kicker, it is a common misconception to believe that land heat capacity is greatest,  not so,  it is lesser compared to water and ice.   Heat capacity of land is twice as less than ice,  yet the snow is mostly all gone.    For every 2 joules of heat gained by land gives  about 2 C of temperature increase.  While the same 2 joules raises ice temperature by 1 C.  The heat capacity differences of each physical feature explain this picture. But there is more,  the smaller lakes lost their ice first,  as opposed to the bigger ones.  Again land dominates the smaller bodies of water, either by shedding comparatively more snow melt water or their land spread dominance creates greater surface temperatures than at the middle of a big lake;

    A large lake  coincidentally looking like the Arctic Ocean,  has exactly the same melt features as during later summer over the Arctic Ocean.  There are melt ponds.  But these go along with the shorelines broken from their bonds of ice.  The ice appears also shattered and in new packs,  the smaller bits will last not long enough to look like sea ice pancakes.  But the shores melt first not the lake centre,  which has its own micro climate spreading outwards.

    Further to the South, an even bigger lake shows watershed on its surface,  causing different albedo properties.  Even sturdy and massive this ice end is nigh, for now,  the shores are not open, it is massive, its micro climate is so much bigger than the lake looking like the Arctic Ocean,  that its influencing neighbouring region making adjoining smaller lakes  still frozen .  We have here a good example of climates to come,  a much wider open Arctic ocean influences a huge Hemispherical chunk of planet Earth.  If it is all frozen up during summer the planet remains cooler,  but if vast segments of its extent are open water,  the lands next to it warm, and the lands next to the warmed lands warm further.  But ice,  consolidated, thick and white is like a single sunlight reflector.  If lake ice nowhere as thick as sea ice has a local significant impact, sea ice influences weather worldwide.  Ice is like an entity,    part of our climate system.  Once gone so goes cooling.   We know ice does not melt completely unless surrounded by heat,  from bottom, then from sides and finally top.    The weighted temperature of the ice column  must be colder than its surroundings for it to exist.  wd June 2,2014