Friday, December 9, 2016

From warm year to warmer: A different icescape world in 5 years

Sea ice greatest feature is the recent memory it encapsulates,  it is planet Earth's graph  displaying not only daily but more monthly/yearly trends:


  2011 December 6 (darker),  2106 December 9 NOAA IR North Pole captures.   2011 has very long tidal leads, despite a warm winter then,  these occur mainly during Lunar events sometimes in combination with winds.   A sign of sea ice consolidation,  a more congealed cohesive sea ice pack.
2016 has Myriads of very small leads interspersing countless thinner broken up sea ice pans.  A much more fluid ice pack,  not really amenable for mega lead formations.   The more frozen areas of 2016 pack has some much smaller mega leads.  We are very close to winter solstice, if this badly broken up sea ice pack continues till Maxima date,  2017 summer sea ice prospects look very bleak.  The badly broken up sea ice state is deeply intertwined with a feedback loop enticing Cyclones to persist over the long night Arctic Ocean, these keep the sea ice from accreting normally,  keeping the pack loose.   This long night may be the starting time when sea ice extent variations simply will stay down year round. WD December 9,2016

Sunday, December 4, 2016

The "Perfect Storm" 1 month late minus the hurricane merge

"Here we are in the graze of winter"
John Mellencamp

  Once upon a time,  there was a season for scary combinations of weather systems merging,
the time was October 31 1991:


       Winter's moved in,  what they call an "Arctic blast",  changed the configuration of the entire North American weather map.    Very bitter cold.  This in part created the Perfect Storm of Andrea Gale fame, ode to the fishermen of NE coast who braved it.  

     2016 has same winter blast,  much weaker,  is a coming 40 days late:


ECMWF  portrays coming High pressure "Arctic dome"  originating mainly from Alaska,
a pale shadow of former self, while the Arctic Ocean is currently dominated by a Cyclone which just  kicked out a budding mega cold "dome" forming,  the by-continental merge of cold air zones was cut in two,  leaving Alaskan build up to come down the Rockies path.  However, on the East coast of North America,  a huge Cyclone system will blossom December 9-10 not unlike segments of the Perfect Storm of 91,   but minus Hurricane Merge,  December  being well past hurricane season,  the last one Nicole streamed by Mid-October 2016. 
       Fortunate merge-less system unlike in 1991,  when winter was winter, long lasting and coming early each October, now we have  a different world, again all facing a warming,  all regions bracing for different weather.  Unknown combinations await.  WD December 5,2016


  Last 30 days (from December 7) NOAA temperature anomaly.  North America is not as cold as old November's use to be.


   We have an "Alaskan Cold Dome" slowly moving South,  looking very similar to the 1991 chart above,  40 days late from the Perfect storm date.  Winter is starting late.   CMC 0600 UTC 12/08/2016.   WD  December 8, 2016.