Dark Horizons, latest cutting edge refraction analysis

~ New equipment allows to capture horizon with sun as low as  -11 degrees below A.H.
~Very latest data suggests 2016 has exceedingly thin sea ice.

        A series of observations on the ground and within the air itself may help explain surface based thermal inversions,  of which a significant player is sea ice and snow cover.

        Darkness offers ideal thermal flux studies,  largely because inconsistent rapid changes by clouds and sun radiation from varying elevations can change the thermal balance quickly.  Without the sun,  we can literally see how thick sea ice is because the only heat source is mostly from the Ocean even if covered by ice and snow insulation.    If sea ice is thinner,  more heat escapes from  it by conduction, convection and IR rays.   But the very top of sea ice surface can have the same temperature but was never observed warmer than surface air,  triggering a prime optical refraction rule: - top of sea ice is always colder or equal in temperature to surface air- ,  as observed in all observation captures so far,  this is just as so in darkness as well.

     It is also known that the upper air temperature profile maximum point increases in altitude in direct proportion to how cold the lower atmosphere is.  The higher the warmest air layer  altitude is on a given upper air profile, the lesser it can influence the surface temperature below,  the steeper the surface based inversion usually becomes, in optical response the horizon rises.    Warmer oceans than air right above always cause the surface to air interface to be adiabatic,  freezing of sea ice surface marks the beginning of a different lower atmospheric profile,  isothermal at first,  then progressively after, surface based inversions start to dominate and eventually persist all winter  except for advection from long night Cyclonic intrusions.
 

November 11 2015 (darker image),  had about 1 arc minute higher horizon elevation compared to 2016 November 15.    As such,  Nov 2016 had warmer temperature -20.3 than 2015 -24.5 C.  Photo captures were done with older telescope (darker image) and more powerful  newer telescope (brighter image).    So far, all comparisons with previous years in brighter very early February captures suggest a very thin sea ice at present.  WD (Nov 15,2016).     

Creeping Northwards winter faces the new world order of open water

~The fight is on,  but Darkness will make winter win.

   18 z CMC Nov12 2016,  the flow of warmed air over open water meets the coldest of this winter yet from Siberia.    There has to be cooling in darkness, especially over land areas.   And so it happened.  In the not so distant past the Arctic Ocean the Arctic Ocean was solid frozen at this moment,  winter easily spread Northwards making a much more fierce winter core for the rest of the Northern Hemisphere.     Now winter gets isolated,  its basic macro geometry has changed.

  1045 mb High with temperatures as cold as -36 C meets the ice free Oceans,  but its the one from the North which shapes or stalls it.  Up to 15 degrees or more warming.  Bending and shaping the anticyclone.   On a wider planetary scale,   the climate is altered significantly from a past which wouldn't have this open water at all.  Again as of last decade or so,  winter has started within the Northern Continents,  as so, within the last dozen years,  all kinds of strange weather came about,  this year will be weirder because the causation from lesser thinner sea ice is bigger than ever. WD Nov12,2016

Not enough North Pole Old multiyear sea ice to make Arctic Siberia normally bitter cold

  Imagine a parcel of air moving like a box on a very long transpolar conveyor belt 2 meters above sea and ice.  In the box there is a thermometer.   This is how we can judge how effective sea ice is in cooling warm air coming from the very warm North Atlantic:

CMC 12 UTC November 6, 2016 surface analysis.  Demonstrates a meek cooling over sea ice of about 14 C over a very long distance by way of the North Pole (1200 Nautical Miles).  Then after,  the remaining Pacific sector open water warms the parcel more than +12 C.  Rendering Northeastern Siberia unusually warmer  than Central Siberia,  where winter has started in full. WD November 7, 2016

Astounding Dark Arctic Night heat

    The main feature of the last 2 days was abnormally warm Arctic Ocean surface temperatures.    But look further at this NOAA animation capture.   There is a lot of clear air in complete darkness,  not that clear air is totally moisture free:

    Closer to 0 kg of precipitable water per meter square, over the greater Arctic appears to be quite normal;

     The Arctic +5.91 C anomaly is dwarfed 3 times by the Arctic Ocean surface air anomaly,  yet again without a complete massive cloud cover in total darkness.   This leaves mainly one source,
the Arctic Ocean itself,  it means that there is a supply of steady heat from a badly broken up sea ice very slowly consolidating to new ice the multiple thousands of heat giving water leads seen above.WD

Big Lead story..... It is not there...... Instead we see a great deal of fracturing as expected from a much warmer October Arctic Ocean.

   October 27 2016 NOAA IR HRPT Northern Ellesmere Island Canada.  Finally a clearing after more than a month of clouds.  The densest sea ice of the Arctic world appeared de-compacted,  disassembled by a massive dispersion event,  looked more like new ice just freezing interlaced with thousands of leads.    Speaking of which,  the Big Lead footprint is glaringly absent,  it may last for weeks after it opens, but not much of a sign of it here.  This is clear evidence of laterally decompressed sea ice.  The big lead is a construct of very dense sea ice, it occurs during the coldest days of winter as well as summer,  what is needed for it to show is a strong Tidal event.  Usually during the full or new moon periods.  This picture was taken during a near new moon phase.  Of interest is also Kennedy Channel,  clogged with broken up sea ice flowing with the Tidal driven current.

    NOAA HRPT IR  with different darkness setting than above,  November 13 2012.  2012 densest sea ice then was much more consolidated,  fracturing a whole lot less,  there was some CAA open water shoreline open water that froze (bottom left),  but the big lead(s) was prominent,  a sure sign of stronger compaction .  Kennedy Channel was much more open,  again a sign of a stronger consolidated pack.

         What we have just observed  was the result of a complex chain of events which essentially rendered early winter densest pack ice much weaker, laced thousands of leads giving away heat enough to foster lingering Cyclones to keep the Arctic Ocean mostly covered with clouds.  A few days ago, the coldest air was from the center of Canadian Arctic Archipelago,  and lesser over Northeast Russia merged. Just before, EX Hurricane Nicole pushed a segment of the North Atlantic jet stream deep towards the North Pole,  to the South of the stream was an Anticyclone which helped consolidate Higher pressure over Center of Arctic Ocean making join the 2 coldest air zones from the continents.

        We now see how bad the densest sea ice is,  in effect a broken up shadow of its former self,  a collage of thousands of pieces just freezing together at this time.  Sea ice dynamics are now drastically different.  Expect the unexpected from this time onwards.  WD October 28, 2016.

Remnants of a Hurricane Nicole facilitated Anticyclone under its Northward Planetary wave alteration

   Following up on previous article about PTS Nicole pushing the Jet Stream Northwards,   SFU animation  jet continued flowing Northwards all the way to the  North Pole,  quite extraordinary event.  It seems a Hurricane system more complex than just a mere strong Cyclone.   Because to the South of the displaced Jet Stream Wave there was a High Pressure system:

The Jet stream wave had Higher pressure to its South,  while there was remarkable dominating
Lower pressure over the Arctic Ocean,  the Cyclone dominated Arctic had a significant circulation makeover,  NOAA Daily composites October 21-24 2016.

Ex Hurricane Nicole appears to have displaced the jet stream Northwards

~Is not the first time an Ex-hurricane affected the jet stream...

   Now that formerly Hurricane-Tropical Storm Nicole approached Greenland,  something caught my eye:

SFSU jet stream animation October 14-18, 2016,   usually marking  Low pressures to the North of the main jet stream.   However hurricane Nicole exhibited some unique features which are interesting.  

Zoomed  SFSU animation Oct 14-18,  As Post Tropical Storm Nicole approached South East Greenland (end of animation loop),  the Jet stream bent Northwards,  as if the ex-Hurricane was a High pressure rather than a Cyclone.  Note the beginning of this animation small 993 mb Cyclone over Ireland having the Jet stream to its Southern perimeter.

 
<<<<<< Small 993 mb Cyclone with Southern Perimeter jet stream (traced in red),  quite normal and expected.


CMC surface map October 14 18:00 UTC
(Colour markings mine)






<<<<<<<<<<<Tropical Storm Nicole flanked to the North by jet stream (traced in red).

CMC October 17, 2016 12:00 UTC.
   (Colour markings mine)


<<<<<<<   Red line South of Greenland is the jet stream.








<<<<Post tropical storm nears Greenland.  Moving Northwards

CMC October 18,2016 18:00 UTC
  (Colour markings mine)








<<<<<<<   PTS Nicole still heading towards the Pole,  clearly bent and moved the jet stream Northwards.    Most often (but not always) Cyclones make the jet stream do the opposite,  bend Southwards.








          This is clearly an interesting observation,  approaching towards the North Atlantic run of the mill  Cyclones usually  influence the jet stream to move to their South.

 CMC 250 mb chart  October 19 2016,
PTS Nicole now an important Polar Cyclone,
right where most  Cyclones usually spin others to move Eastwards.   Northwards trek seems to have stalled,  but it is still a very significant
about 860 mb.  

<<<   Just starting jet at right of frame.

                       CMC October 19, 12:00 UTC surface chart.   As I write the Low is 962 mb.  






WD October 18,2016

Echoes of 2016 sea ice minima are reflected in present Arctic Ocean temperatures

Current North of 80N atmospheric temperatures are fabulously warmer than 2012 for quite a while.   There comes a point when collective evidence is simply overwhelming,  when there can be simplified conclusions drawn from it.   The joint stable long lasting cloud cover (despite the presence of moderate Anticyclones),  the persistent Cyclones hovering over the Arctic Ocean and exceedingly warm surface pan Arctic temperatures indicate a common denominator:  current sea ice condition is extensively weakened,  is thinner with intermixed myriad leads of open water.   To claim otherwise,  defies what we know from past sea ice to lower atmosphere interactions.

Arctic Ocean surface air temperatures were much colder same date October 17 2012,  NOAA (above).  -20 to -25 for significant areas.    Compared to 2016 which was about -10 C daily average at coldest,  indicating the mere beginning of winter at the densest pack location.   

     2012 densest pack was largely unscathed compared to 2016.   Winter 2012 started a whole lot more over the Arctic Ocean dense pack area  with stable over the sea ice pack Anticyclones in darkness,  the densest pack usually can do that every autumn.   2016 densest pack suffered a grand de-coiling wave at about sea ice minima of record, along with dispersive atmospheric circulation caused by persistent Cyclones North of Beaufort sea.   

From this evidence,  we may attempt a prognosis,  since 2016 coldest air build up is over Northern Siberia and mainly at the Canadian Arctic Archipelago,  and since the Arctic Ocean is surrounded by more land than sea ,  we may surmise that the Arctic Ocean area is uniquely warmer by itself,

will cool by extension from the coldest Continental zones,  2016 densest pack has just started consolidating well after 2012,,  and  the sea ice of 2016 is in far worse shape than 2012, but in a dispersed way,  which may confuse unless we look at everything.  WD October 17, 2016

JAXA extent artifact or floating snow?

   JAXA October 13 to 14,  14 recognized by extent gains in Laptev sea.  Central top of capture.

    CMC October 15 1200 UTC has very warm temperatures where the extent gain showed up near East Siberian Islands,

  CMC October 15 sea surface temperatures were equally very warm.

    NOAA 01:00 to 05:00 UTC ir animation.  Despite the presence of a moderate Anticyclone  the area in question was loaded with multi layered clouds.  The chance of snow showers were quite good.

         Whether a floating snow, artifact or sea ice creation event has happened ,  depends on our Russian friends North of Siberia  actually visually confirming   this...

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Спасибо WD October 15, 2016

World wide effects from less Arctic sea ice

~Record warm Arctic Ocean impacts planetary circulation

   NOAA Map room last 7 days,  amazing Arctic warm temperatures can have no other origin than self since further South its just as cold over great Northern landscapes, the continents:

From the same time period we can theoretically trace where the jet stream may be,  as above,  South of coldest air anomalies. which are uniquely over land.

    Theory fits with reality,  therefore very warm Arctic Ocean,  gets replenished by warm Pacific advection, a dynamic feedback loop.   A colder Arctic Ocean would have a completely different jet stream profile.  A colder Arctic would flatten the undulations.

Jet stream 1987 (left) October 2-9,  appears not quite the same as identical period 2016 (right).  Not that it should be absolutely the same,  but there are no longer seasonal similarities.  A jet stream shift has happened. The mega 1987 jet over the North Atlantic was typical, most times likewise fuelled by more massive North American cold air building up.    At the base of this change is sea and ice surface temperatures :

   The warmth didn't mix as much with the Arctic in 87 (left),  while winter was naturally expansive in October,  2016 (right) has a different temperature layout for a good chunk of the Northern Hemisphere.  Radical change in sea and ice surface temperatures would absolutely naturally contribute to cause the difference.
WDOctober 11-13,2016

North Pole current sea ice as terrible as it can get in October 24 hour darkness

By far the poorest  state of  North Pole sea ice observed for October,  indicates a hellish icescape of badly broken up sea ice interspersed with myriad of leads with thin ice and open water.  

  The larger view NOAA IR acquired by CMC Oct 10 2016 14:18:20,  its cooling a bit,    this is what happens when densest pack start reforming to its former thicker ice state.  But this is one of the worse if not the worse shape sea ice has ever been on this date of the year.  WD October 10,2016