Vast expansion of scattered sea ice does not seem to record open water extent gains numerically, or it likely snowed a whole lot.

~Snow showers can confuse data to look like sea ice but there are some differences.

     First off,  JAXA extent data kept showing some expansion less one day since the almost official minima,  this is confirmed on satellite pictures,  but sea ice is scattering thinner,  eventually dispersion will show up in the data,  extent expansion should stall,  even despite the 15% rules:

    Vast expansion of scattered sea ice towards Central Russia from Pole.   Infers also that open sea water is expanding,  but JAXA daily extent data numbers does not seem to collapse daily expansiveness,  rather mostly the contrary.  There is,  however,  a very good explanation:

   Invasion of what is left of the Multiyear ice shows striking image,  the top sea ice is smooth the bottom ravaged by -1 C water.  Top sea ice layer has less salt and would be the last to go.  But this bergybit is surrounded by what appears to be smooth sea ice,  look carefully,  it is submerged fresh snow for the most part some segments have the snow sticking above water level.

   Fresh snow on lower tide sea shore gradually submerging in deeper water.

    Submerged snow differs from grey ice in colour and texture,  it mostly appears smooth.

   this years icescape of huge areas of Arctic Ocean broken sea ice makes the accurate measurement of sea ice  even more difficult.  Ice floes smother the wind and wave action moving the snow to pile up or  disperse.  In 2012,  Cryosphere today data recorded a vast expanse of submerged snow as sea ice during calm winds. Likewise 2016 most certainly has had expanding sea ice numbers earlier on account,  in part, of snow fall.  Summer/Autumn Arctic 2016 atmosphere has very moist air.WD September 18, 2016  

Melting continues 8 days after minima ; A contradiction? Or a missing sea ice to sea water ratio calculation

           The melting continues,  despite minima almost declared formally,  there is a lot of moist air about the entire Arctic,  clouds are very thick layered with rain turning to snow near ground in some parts.  There are at least 3  important Cyclones vicinity or over sea ice,  one is almost quasi-stationary North of Beaufort, laying steady between water and sea ice.  This does not come as a surprise,  the JAXA depiction here of sea is a lot less solid pack than the replication suggests,  there are plenty of warm spot sources keeping the cyclones steady.  Cooling is mainly happening over the  Canadian Arctic Archipelago,  not a surprise as well,   it was foreseen here long ago,  but there is a lot of snow falling from cyclonic activity compounding a warm cold heat engine complex.    

     Since we can't actually 'see' through the clouds without radar images,  we need better visualizations which may in great part explain why melting and extent drop is happening.  Enhanced visuals offer also a qualitative description of state of sea ice,  they can be compared from year to year with the holistic approach rather than simply numeric.  The danger in strictly oversimplifying the true nature of the icescape can't be overstated,  we have here an example which is rife with confusion because we don't appreciate the truer image.  WD September 17, 2016

Worse Sea ice in History next to North Pole towards Greenland/Spitsbergen

     2012 was the minima  year of record under the 15% peripheral method of measuring sea ice extent or area.   But as shown here just South of the Pole and North of Greenland,  had far denser sea ice, less mobile, as it should have been,  than 2016.  2015 same date showed the leads and fissures about to be bigger the following year.  2016 has utterly chaotic loose fluid sea ice where it was at 2012 minima relatively immobile and solid.   2016 to date has sea ice moving towards the Pole quite rapidly,  incredible if you think of it. The larger question is again raised,  how is 2012 the said minima year when 2016 has far less denser ice pack where it was most solid for Centuries?    Should we use a far more accurate and less esoteric method of judging sea ice quality and quantity?

    Smudges is all we see on September 15, 2016 JAXA,  which if it was so, sea ice would hardly move.   This representation gives a comparable image to 2012:

Same area had similar smudges,  but as we have seen on pictures above,  much more water.
 WD September 15, 2016

Cloudless window into the fragile state of de-coiled densest sea ice

   Very un-coiled  state of sea ice on the Canadian Greenlandic side of the Pole continues,  with open leads amongst many fractures easily susceptible to weather,  on the 13th frame we see approaching Low which should change this configuration shortly.

  JAXA September 13 2016.  The 15% rule masks or covers up this state of affairs with apparent sea ice not present.  The illusory diminution of open water is very much greater with loose pack ice presently on the Pole to Russian sector.  It is an acceptable depiction, as long as one is aware of the way these maps are made,  but why not replicate reality as fully as possible and forego this 15% rule at least with different full reality charts?  The luxury of no clouds for good observations is at times rare and fleeting.

  Sept 14 North of extreme NE Greenland very thick sea ice pushed Northwards like if it has a lot of room to move.    WD September 14,2016

De-Coiling of Canadian side of Pole causes pan-Arctic sea ice expansion in extent

  Other effect of Transpolar Stream being nothing but a loose gathering of pack ice floating about with the winds,  is de-coiling of the densest pack ice left:

  The Canadian side of the Pole is literally breaking apart.

This has huge consequences throughout the Arctic,  namely expansion of the loose pack towards Russia, Fram Strait bulging and Canadian Arctic Archipelago invasion of decompressed sea ice:

The tide current in the CAA is uninterruptible ,  no matter where the winds originate.  The Straits cause a funneling of massive area (not height)  of Arctic Ocean daily tides pushing against the Archipelago NW shores.  If sea ice becomes looser in its densest pack,  more free flowing sea ice gets carried by tidal currents. WD September 13,2016 

Plenty of melting not that it shows numerically

Franz Josef Land has near 0 C temperatures, but with sst's +2 C

Goodbye Waves a plenty,  and some opposite Transpolar Stream action effectively returning the loose pack towards the North Atlantic on its Eastern sector:  

JAXA chart  keeps on showing expansion of sea ice,  which is exactly following the 15% rule.  

There is likely no freezing,  mainly moving loose sea ice in contrary direction of the Transpolar Stream:

Looking carefully,  even with colder sea water and air near the Pole,  there is a presence of Goodbye Waves.  But far skinnier than near Franz Josef Lands.  

  The apparent open water gap filling sea ice is nothing but pack ice having plenty of dispersing room.  Note a huge sector of denser pack ice as well moving towards Russia,  likely part of de-coiling of Canadian side sea ice.    The 15% rule is very bad in describing this event pictographically. The sea ice provenance area has more expanded open water,  this does not show at all on JAXA chart,  because there is a great deal of shattering,  sea ice moving one way,  transpolar current moving the other,  plenty of stress, movement and collisions, but what the chart doesn't show is the vastness of open sea water.  Much greater than ever before near the North Pole.  WD September 11,2016

Titanic case reopened!

~National Geographic excellent presentation about likely reason for R.M.S.  Titanic collision with Iceberg has only one problem:  Its not possible.

~ Actually said so after it was presented,  and now proof

~  Water walls are the rarest refraction effect ever,  never seen in the land of refractions.

Massive De-coiling Canada Greenland sector continues

   The thickest densest sea ice left in the Arctic is unravelling at its faults lines.

18z CMC Sep 9 2016 surface chart has no significant meteorological reason for this.

     This is what less sea ice does when missing megatons of pressure does not push towards Greenland. The flow is almost always Eastwards,  but a tempered jammed Eastwards.  WD Sep 10, 2016

Dispersion of very melted broken up sea ice makes the 15% rule obsolete

     Russian sector of the North Pole had clearly a net expansion of extent,  but not because it was freezing,  much rather from the poor condition of extremely thinned breaking up sea ice.   All while there was melting.  So it is very difficult to judge either how fast the melting is unless dispersion is taken into account.    The other way to judge is by Goodbye Waves:

    Dispersing more rapidly Goodbye Waves are a sign of melting amongst winds and currents.   Judging melting correctly would be to factor in,  not exclude by an arbitrary rule,  every parcel of open water and sea ice as accurately as possible.   WD Sep 9,2016

Atlantic Front Franz Josef Lands melt/retreat Northwards, dispersion of broken apart sea ice will eventually thin further and give dramatic extent drop

  We see thinning of sea ice loose packs almost everywhere in the Arctic Ocean,  here North of Franz Josef Land Russia, is a retreat of sea ice Northwards.  This flow has no solid pack to recoil on and therefore is breaking apart.   Note Goodbye Waves to the South of the Front indicate great melting.  The new open water areas, numerous as they may be,  are highly likely not recorded by extent numbers 15% per grid regulation.

   Superimposed JAXA map September 5 (white black) September 7 (in colour).  The colour gains,  on the Leeward side (winds counterclockwise) of sea ice shores outnumber the black and white september 5 map by a far greater extent,  black being mixed with colour on the largely steady compacted windward side.  This masks the real melt numbers further.  Eventually,  further dispersion will show dramatic melt results. WD September 8,2016

De coiling sea ice , a sea ice momentum reprieve North of Greenland.

Some of the toughest thickest sea ice is also decompressing North of Greenland,  the pressure from
the usual sea ice momentum given by the Transpolar Stream Current is non-existent.  The response is a de coil action Northwards then an easier flow Eastwards.   This action is not noiseless,  luckily not many people live there,  there should be some thunder rumbling to be heard.  WD Sept 7, 2016

N.P. to Ostrov Komsomolets once ice bridge in taters, dispersing greatly as well as melting

   It was the strongest ice bridge in summer 2016, was from the Pole to Russia,  principally because there was a thinner snow layer which created the thickest ice possible given the warm winter just past.   Now its moving apart rapidly,  look at the central open water ridge moving fast Eastwards. Goodbye Waves a plenty can also be seen on the Leeward side on Sept 7 (left shore).   The Ostrov  Komsomolets ice bridge was huge apparently invincible:

   And now dispersing with the winds,  becoming larger in the process and distorting the melt view.  WD Sep7,2016

A lot of confusing action explains extent drop stall

   Apparent to all is the Transpolar Stream fill,  in a mere day,  affecting extent readings,
there is also false snow reflections particularly in the Canadian Arctic Archipelago, fallen floating snow appears as sea ice.

 There was no real fill of the Transpolar Stream,  just counterclockwise movement enabling by stress more shattering of larger ice pans,  in other words greater scattering affecting the 15% sea ice grid numbers to rise.  WDSep6,2016

Some effects of open water Transpolar Stream Current

It is not so obvious,  there is the Atlantic front,  where there is far less sea ice momentum pushing slowly to the North Atlantic:

  August 26 to September 4  East of Spitsbergen.    Appearing steady or moving North with a lot of melting.

  Fram Strait substantial extent gains with likely the most solid dense ice left unencumbered by TPS sea ice ,  hence the stretching out sea ice peninsula not with numerous Goodbye Waves,  but heading certainly to melt at a much slower rate than Atlantic Front sea ice.WD Sept5,2016

Transpolar Stream Current is now a free flowing sea river with broken sea ice all the way to the North Atlantic

~Another first in history

  The collapse of what solid ice barrier remained at the shores of the Atlantic effectively has made the Transpolar Stream an  open sea water river carrying sea ice directly to the Atlantic without the momentum of interconnected sea ice needed.  This means a more rapid dumping of sea ice to melt.
A first in recorded history event,  with ominous implications for the surviving sea ice.

     2012 september 4 (above) had a substantial solid pack even with small leads on the Russian side of the North Pole,  not at all like 2016 with a river of floating sea ice flowing all the way to the Atlantic.  WD September 4,2016

Wrangel bridge waves away: Goodbye!

    Once sea ice melts to Goodbye Waves (slush), it doesn't take very long before these waves vanish to darkness.  Here we have, very late in the season,  prodigious melting not stopping,  Goodbye waves are like the steam after water boils, prominent but fleeting,  from common white to dying artistically,  in 4 days a great deal of sea ice vanished,  and the steam keeps burgeoning. WD September 4,2016

Atlantic Front retreating, likely because no substantial replenishment

~  And Goodbye Waves Palooza everywhere signifying great melting

   If the  Trans Polar Stream has less ice,  it also means less momentum and continuity pushing sea ice towards the Atlantic,  this is what we are observing with JAXA August 27 through to 30 above.  Hence a retreat throughout the Atlantic Front and even if not seen with HRPT photos,  a lot of Goodbye Waves signifying  rapid melting.  It is a reverse flow mirage which has something to do in part with the broken off flow momentum pushing dense sea ice outwards and Cyclone Centre pushing winds Eastward.

   Its a mess on the other side of the pack,  with Goodbye Waves galore,  the ex-Wrangel Ice bridge is rather a modern Art collection of rapidly disappearing sea ice. WD August 31,2016

Wrangel Island ice bridge no more, its a messy combination of very thin broken sea ice and Goodbye Waves

       Goodbye Waves can give a problem with determining wether they are sea ice or as they really are slush:

Goodbye Waves along with very thin emaciated ready to melt sea ice near Wrangel Island August 30, the thin ice almost looks like goodbye waves but they are not quite alike.

August 27-28 ,  JAXA depiction is fairly good ,  but there is a mix between Goodbye Waves and sea ice, seen on 28 apparently having more sea ice,  although the two are from sea ice, they are definitely not alike,  the prominent gap breaking up the ice bridge in two is more prominent on NASA EOSDIS capture (above),  the bridge is no more,  what is left is going goodbye.

JAXA got the Gap almost the same with EOSDIS  on August 29

Goodbye Waves likely caused this confusion.  Look at the 2nd arm of the ice bridge reappearing on August 28.  

The ice bridge collapsed quicker by the cuts of many cyclones,  it was already impossible to walk on

it late July.  It now exists like glue holding 2 tons together.  WD August 30,2016

Cyclone centring by sea ice footprints? Another North Pole hole miss

   North Pole proximity had the visit of an important cyclone approximately 974 mb for about half a day.   Again a great deal of open water was created near or at its centre.  This prompts the idea of cross checking the real cyclone centre with sea ice imprints,  the same goes for very High pressures.

    The larger state of current sea ice deteriorates further late in the season as well.August 29, 2016 wd

Canadian Side usually ultra dense sea ice observed loose up to 89.5N

   The latest August 28 974 mb cyclone is very near the Pole,  and this time it should create quite a lot of open water there because the Canadian side of Pole sea ice is now likely the least dense observed in history.  WDAugust28,2016

Wrangel Island ice bridge methodically becoming no more.

~If it all melts,  2012 extent record will be seriously challenged or exceeded


    Within last 4 days,  the Wrangel Island ice bridge has lost about half of its extent,  at this rate it should be all gone within a week,  since the water surface to ice ratio increases every day:

Once the middle of Wrangel Island ice bridge to Pole becomes water, likely in a few days if not tomorrow, the melting will accelerate.   Comparing to 2012 is of interest:

     There are huge differences between the icescape of August 27, 2016 and same day 2012.  2012 had an ice bridge to Wrangel but disappeared earlier,  North of Laptev sea ice was only present above 80 N,  the Atlantic front was more to the North.  However 2016 has a deeper towards the North Pole sea water bite and has incredible CAB lower density sea ice areas :

   The over all up to date review suggests 2016 capable of surpassing 2012 in its own way.    Melt years are rarely alike,  even one following another.  What makes 2016 apart,  is that it happened significantly without a prolonged Arctic Dipole,  in other words, without a great deal of summer insolation (and its cooler in summer when cloudy,  even in the Arctic).  This was a prerequisite proving that warming Global Temperatures need not have favourable weather conditions to devastate the existence of Arctic Sea ice.  WD August 28,2016

Trans Polar Stream, first time so wet in history, is simply huge, it may cause a fluid mix accelerating flushing to the warm North Atlantic.

   A  gap in clouds drifted long enough to reveal a huge area of sea water mixed with loose sea ice just South of the North Pole (about 100 nautical miles),  NOAA HRPT.  Of interest is the zone between this opening and Fram Strait,  which has always been a fluid area of sea ice, usually slowed by traffic jams of ice coming from multiple directions.  However, even in winter, this is an area rife with movement.   It may not be strange that it looks more dense with sea ice,  it all bunches up there,  but it is not a static zone especially now:

   Fram Strait is rapidly bulging Southwards with sea ice,  this means that the Open Trans Polar Stream may reach the Strait,  with 0 to +7 C sea surface temperatures.  Notice Goodbye waves between Greenland and Spitsbergen Isles,  they expanded from August 23 to 25 as well,  a sure indication of rapid melting along with the arrival of new sea ice.  If the Trans Polar Stream open zone reaches Fram Strait,  it would mean a much more fluid flow of sea ice to the North Atlantic.

   Note the zone of open water within the Trans Polar Stream appears far more ominous on Satellite pictures,  this is due to AMSR2 15% minimum sea ice per grid rule.   However, any increase in fluidity North of Greenland or Spitsbergen would accelerate the flushing of the real last remnant of dense sea ice North of Greenland as the mixing mashed up zone of subduction would have no pressure from the Trans Polar Stream furnishing usually thick ridged sea ice,  this acceleration may have already started.. wd August 25, 2016

The Trans Polar Stream is becoming like a sea water river carrying loose sea ice to the Atlantic

   

Note the ice pans moving from left to right (August 18-25),  despite many strong cyclones giving different wind directions,  the Trans Polar Stream seems largely unaffected.  As time goes by,  the ice pans near the North Pole, 87.7N 107E,  become more and more surrounded by sea ice.  This is a very precarious moment,  the stream is almost loose like this all the way to the North Atlantic,  from 85 N to 82 N there is denser sea ice,  if this barrier or ice dam collapses,  nothing will stop a whole lot of ice of melting further,  unfortunately the forecasts call for strong winds over the denser sea ice barrier region.  WD August 25,2016